Breaky Bitcoin Blues

Slideways · 10-09-2018 2:51pm #1

I was having the porridge this morning with a few colleagues, and the chat came around to cryptocurrency. Turns out they all got roasted buying bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins during the bubble in November and December of last year. Two of the lads are going to sell their remaining coins this week, and put the whole thing down to getting greedy and falling for a classic pyramid scheme. One other lad (a hard-living Scot) was threatening to track down an ex-colleague of ours and ‘put the slipphery wee kunt in a grave’ for talking the group into buying these coins in the first place.

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble. He was boasting back in December about buying a yacht, moving to Puerto Rico, and shacking up with some local bird with his epic crypto gains. His investment is now worth less than 3k.That’s shocking stuff. You’d hear very little these days about the space in the papers, or on the telly. Did anyone here lose the arse of their trousers gambling on these coins, and did you learn a lesson? Has it any future at all? Was it greed, stupidity, or a mixture of both that caused young lads to throw their savings into this stuff? You’d have to stroke your chin and wonder what they were thinking.

Woke Hogan · 10-09-2018 2:56pm

I work with a few lads who invested in crypto currencies last year, and they're all regretting it now. I can't help but laugh at those fools, you could see it was a bubble from a mile away.

callaway92 · 10-09-2018 2:58pm

Woke Hogan wrote: »

I work with a few lads who invested in crypto currencies last year, and they're all regretting it now. I can't help but laugh at those fools, you could see it was a bubble from a mile away.

Thank you captain hindsight

Under His Eye · 10-09-2018 2:59pm

Pyramid scheme from the get go. Zero sympathy for those suckers.

valoren · 10-09-2018 2:59pm

It's all a modern day tulip mania. Been happening for centuries and will continue to happen.
I read about bitcoin in 2009 but to actually own them was such a technical mind melt I ignored it.

We're a nation of gamblers not investors and something like Bitcoin and Crypto was always going to dupe risk takers.
Same with pyramid schemes which always manage to find 'investors' here.

Ciaran_B · 10-09-2018 2:59pm

I know nothing about crypto but when I saw ads on the side of Dublin Buses selling Crypto services I knew the jig was up.

Woke Hogan · 10-09-2018 2:59pm

callaway92 wrote: »

Thank you captain hindsight

Grow up.

10-09-2018 3:01pm

Slideways wrote: »

...........

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble........His investment is now worth less than 3k..............

I'm struggling to see how that's possible tbh. We aren't 99.7% off peak values.

chakotha · 10-09-2018 3:01pm

I cashed out in July and lost 60% of initial investment.

callaway92 · 10-09-2018 3:05pm

Woke Hogan wrote: »

Grow up.

Odd comment

kneemos · 10-09-2018 3:06pm

Was this a porridge binge?

10-09-2018 3:06pm

I made a profit off of it. I first started using bitcoin when it was worth about $500. I used to buy drugs of the darkweb with it. Unbelievably handy. I happened to have a small amount when it jumped but sold when it was worth around $2000. I went on to do a ton of daily trades. It was so easy to make money tbh. It's so volatile. Buy at X, sell at X+1. Repeat ad nauseam. I bought some ethereum a few days ago when it hit 180. I find it bizarre when people freak out and sell when it hits its lowest point or refuse to sell when its high to lock in some profit. Some people just aren't made for it.

10-09-2018 3:09pm

Or maybe I just got lucky. The amount of people online claiming they know what they are talking about is insane. Nobody really knows whats going to happen.

seamus · 10-09-2018 3:11pm

It's standard bubble greed and naivety that burned people. The same old nonsense about crypto was being spouted that we heard about property back in the 2000s.

The age-old rule still applies; once the dogs on the street and the taximen are giving investment advice, you've already missed the boat and the wheels are about to come off.

If your colleagues are talking about it over lunch and your Ma is asking you about it, sell up.

A couple of colleagues claimed to be sticking some money in it, they may have lost on it, I dunno.
One Aussie colleague managed to gather a ****load of coins way back in 2010/11, for no real reason. Just fncking about on the internet, installed a miner, load of coins, pure luck. In 2017 he mostly cashed out before it went crazy, paid off some huge tax bills, bought some stupid amount of land like 200 hectares in Tasmania and threw 2 million dollars into a pension account. His reasoning was that he was now set up for retirement, he had a few coins to keep him going day-to-day, but he would still need to keep working while still having the freedom to not have to worry about being paid a huge salary. In his words, if he didn't do it this way he would have, "blown the whole lot of it up my nose and died at 35".

The concept is sound, the fact that it's a pure free-market unregulated currency means that it's always going to be abused by investors/speculators. Even if bitcoin were ever to become a real currency, it will be forever intensely unstable and unreliable.

Aongus Von Bismarck · 10-09-2018 5:35pm

A complete scam of course, and it just goes to shows what happens when large amounts of people who don't understand economics, the creation of wealth, and the systems behind it, attempt to 'get rich quick'.

That said, not everyone lost money. Over 90% of people did. I made some money off Bitcoin completely by chance. A number of us here at the bank in Frankfurt bought some of them a number of years back. We had intended to give them to one of C-Suite in the bank as a joke present - the 'future of money'. We didn't however, as he died of a massive heart attack before we had the opportunity to do so.

Anyway, we forgot about them, until last December, where we saw that each coin was valued at over 10k dollars a pop. We cashed them all in at 14700k a pop, which wasn't the height of the bubble, but no point getting greedy with this sort of thing, and ending up being a bag-holder/owner of worthless digital 'beany babies'.

I paid the required tax on the profits, and was able to purchase a small holiday home in West Cork with the proceeds. I also had enough left over to purchase a golf course membership down there, as well as a Paul Henry painting for the kitchen. So all-in-all, a pleasant experience.

Don't even bother reading about it these days. There's this idea that those of us who work in traditional banking are terrified of bitcoin. We aren't. It's silly libertarians playing silly games with silly virtual money.

RIGOLO · 10-09-2018 5:45pm

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

A complete scam of course, and it just goes to shows what happens when large amounts of people who don't understand economics, the creation of wealth, and the systems behind it, attempt to 'get rich quick'.

That said, not everyone lost money. Over 90% of people did. I made some money off Bitcoin completely by chance. A number of us here at the bank in Frankfurt bought some of them a number of years back. We had intended to give them to one of C-Suite in the bank as a joke present - the 'future of money'. We didn't however, as he died of a massive heart attack before we had the opportunity to do so.

Anyway, we forgot about them, until last December, where we saw that each coin was valued at over 10k dollars a pop. We cashed them all in at 14700k a pop, which wasn't the height of the bubble, but no point getting greedy with this sort of thing, and ending up being a bag-holder/owner of worthless digital 'beany babies'.

I paid the required tax on the profits, and was able to purchase a small holiday home in West Cork with the proceeds. I also had enough left over to purchase a golf course membership down there, as well as a Paul Henry painting for the kitchen. So all-in-all, a pleasant experience.

Don't even bother reading about it these days. There's this idea that those of us who work in traditional banking are terrified of bitcoin. We aren't. It's silly libertarians playing silly games with silly virtual money.

So that would be economists and leaders of large financial institutions like yourself then ...

JohnnyFlash · 10-09-2018 6:03pm

seamus wrote: »

The concept is sound, the fact that it's a pure free-market unregulated currency means that it's always going to be abused by investors/speculators. Even if bitcoin were ever to become a real currency, it will be forever intensely unstable and unreliable.

How is the concept sound, dude? Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster (using way more electricity than the entire island of Ireland), the scene is awash with wash trading, spoof orders, painting the tape, and other scams that have been banned in other markets for decades. It's slow, expensive to use, if you forget your password then you've lost your bitcoin forever, theft is rife. It's one of the most retrograde technological developments ever created.

7aubzxk43m2sni · 10-09-2018 6:07pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

How is the concept sound, dude? Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster (using way more electricity than the entire island of Ireland), the scene is awash with wash trading, spoof orders, painting the tape, and other scams that have been banned in other markets for decades. It's slow, expensive to use, if you forget your password then you've lost your bitcoin forever, theft is rife. It's one of the most retrograde technological developments ever created.

You're conveniently ignoring the decentralisation aspect and the benefits of the blockchain.

pleas advice · 10-09-2018 6:15pm

I don't know what a blockchain is

10-09-2018 6:35pm

pleas advice wrote: »

I don't know what a blockchain is

A type of distributed decentralised database.

A giant ledger that everyone has access to. Each trade is shared onto it.

WhiteMemento9 · 10-09-2018 6:44pm

Augeo wrote: »

I'm struggling to see how that's possible tbh. We aren't 99.7% off peak values.

It depends on the holdings. Stuff like BitConnect actually was a proper pyramid scheme which went from hundreds to worthless almost overnight. Verge is another one that had ridiculous valuations at one point and has lost almost all value. Plenty of other altcoins went from big valuations to fractional amounts off height value. It is hard though to see how 900k ----> 3k happened but it is possible if holdings were in absolute trash coins

Manic Moran · 10-09-2018 7:42pm

I'm about breaking even right now. Running a small loss. Didn't sell when I should have, but it's all completely academic until I actually press the 'sell' button.

I've well into five figures into it. The rule is "Don't put in what you can't afford to lose". I'm sure as hell going to notice if I lose it, but neither am I going to be on the streets or begging during retirement.

Since I don't need it to live, I'm just going to keep holding. If it goes up again, fantastic. If not, well, I wouldn't be the first person to lose money on an investment.

Ipso · 10-09-2018 7:53pm

It will come in useful to buy shotguns and beans when Immortan Joe takes over.

Jack Moore · 10-09-2018 8:32pm

Slideways wrote: »

I was having the porridge this morning with a few colleagues, and the chat came around to cryptocurrency. Turns out they all got roasted buying bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins during the bubble in November and December of last year. Two of the lads are going to sell their remaining coins this week, and put the whole thing down to getting greedy and falling for a classic pyramid scheme. One other lad (a hard-living Scot) was threatening to track down an ex-colleague of ours and ‘put the slipphery wee kunt in a grave’ for talking the group into buying these coins in the first place.

One of them was worth almost 900k Aussie dollars at the height of the bubble. He was boasting back in December about buying a yacht, moving to Puerto Rico, and shacking up with some local bird with his epic crypto gains. His investment is now worth less than 3k.That’s shocking stuff. You’d hear very little these days about the space in the papers, or on the telly. Did anyone here lose the arse of their trousers gambling on these coins, and did you learn a lesson? Has it any future at all? Was it greed, stupidity, or a mixture of both that caused young lads to throw their savings into this stuff? You’d have to stroke your chin and wonder what they were thinking.

I don’t u derstand this
Bg has fallen from a peak of 17 k to a current 5.5 k so how has he lost 99.7%

Ipso · 10-09-2018 8:35pm

Jack Moore wrote: »

I don’t u derstand this
Bg has fallen from a peak of 17 k to a current 5.5 k so how has he lost 99.7%

It depends when he bought, he might have got in very early. And he may be looking at losses the way people looked at house process back in the day.

Jack Moore · 10-09-2018 8:39pm

Ipso wrote: »

It depends when he bought, he might have got in very early. And he may be looking at losses the way people looked at house process back in the day.

No I get how he got up to 900k
But 900k at peak is worth 300k now

Ipso · 10-09-2018 8:43pm

Jack Moore wrote: »

No I get how he got up to 900k
But 900k at peak is worth 300k now

Right, I get you. Unless his broker charges "miscellaneous" fees.

JohnnyFlash · 10-09-2018 8:45pm

Ipso wrote: »

Right, I get you. Unless his broker charges "miscellaneous" fees.

Might have bought altcoins. Some of them have lost >95% of their value.

10-09-2018 9:36pm

No point selling now, ride it out and see what happens is my plan.

JJJJNR · 10-09-2018 10:03pm

Just spent a year researching projects, happy to say I'm down 5% and looking to get more in the next few weeks.

Slideways · 11-09-2018 8:17am

I notice there’s a few doubters as to the legitimacy of my post.

This guy (the biggest loser bought financially and in real life) bought in early and rode the wave to the top. Instead of cashing out and enjoying his money he got greedy. He’d come across some emerging altcoin after reading a white paper one of his mates sent him and and thinking he was the next Richard Branson got in early and bought a huge stake in it.

I don’t recall the name of it but it crashed spectacularly and old bud is left with the half of fcuk all.

As my old man always says, “A fool and his money is easily parted”

seamus · 11-09-2018 8:23am

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

How is the concept sound, dude? Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster (using way more electricity than the entire island of Ireland), the scene is awash with wash trading, spoof orders, painting the tape, and other scams that have been banned in other markets for decades. It's slow, expensive to use, if you forget your password then you've lost your bitcoin forever, theft is rife. It's one of the most retrograde technological developments ever created.

That's why the concept is sound, even if in practice it's turned out to be a monster.

The core concept of any currency is the ability to use a totem to represent "value" in trade. In order for such a totem to be of any use, it has to be rare, or at least tightly controlled, and it must be difficult or impossible to fake it.

This is why gold (and other precious metals) was favourable for a long time.

Bitcoin fulfills all the necessary, and in many ways is like "digital gold", but also comes with the same issue that gold currency does; namely resource-intensive mining, quite easily scammable and irreplaceable if lost.

The big difference is that we can adapt much quicker and generate new cryptocurrencies which throw out the issues but retain the benefits of crypto. Bitcoin is little more than an experiment gone out of control. But as the value keeps dropping, the cost of mining and processing keeps rising, so it'll eventually fall out of favour completely and people will start finding themselves unable to use or sell it without huge processing fees.

KilOit · 11-09-2018 8:32am

I like the idea of it, very much abused by early in investers and scammers making their own coins etc. Got in early 2017 and took out my initial investment near peak but that's not to say I would of make a killing if I sold the lot at peak

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 11-09-2018 8:35am

callaway92 wrote: »

Thank you captain hindsight

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

7aubzxk43m2sni · 11-09-2018 8:37am

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

To say "crypto is a scam" shows nothing but ignorance on the subject.

JohnnyFlash · 11-09-2018 8:40am

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

You must have had blinkers on for the past 2 years.

With the growth of crypto, there was a massive amount of articles written showing it to be a scam.

To highlight Hindsight is just ignorance on your side.

Ya, any of them who spent more than 5 minutes doing actual research instead of talking about doing it would have seen that the price of Bitcoin (and therefore all other coins) was manipulated using a very very shady coin called Tether (supposedly backed one to one either the dollar). There’s a glut of quality independent journalism out there about how much of a scam this entire space is, but cryptodisciples refuse to read about this. Weird weird cognitive bias type of stuff going on.

seamus · 11-09-2018 8:51am

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Ya, any of them who spent more than 5 minutes doing actual research instead of talking about doing it would have seen that the price of Bitcoin (and therefore all other coins) was manipulated using a very very shady coin called Tether (supposedly backed one to one either the dollar). There’s a glut of quality independent journalism out there about how much of a scam this entire space is, but cryptodisciples refuse to read about this. Weird weird cognitive bias type of stuff going on.

Problem is that it's a little too complex to boil down into simple articles, and phrases of, "It's all a scam!"

Bitcoin itself was never a scam, and a couple of other coins like Ethereum came from people who apparently genuinely wanted a coin that would be usable; perhaps for illegal purposes.

But then came the 2,000 other coins. They're scams. The coin software is open-source and someone can start a new coin from their laptop and sell millions of it. I can start a new coin right now, sell it for half a cent per coin, and sure if I sell a million of them, that's five grand in my bank account, for no effort.
Unaware of this fact, naive investors are sold coins which do exist, but have no real value because nobody is ever going to want them.
Like expensive time-share apartments in Portugal, or a "luxury" apartment in Drimoleague- you have something to look at, but never had and never will have the value that you paid for it.

Ray Bloody Purchase · 11-09-2018 8:52am

Seems like a pyramid scheme for suckers to me.

JJJJNR · 11-09-2018 11:17am

Anyone getting in now has a long wait to get any type return, those days of overnight millionaires are well and truely over.

I'm not into trading have a computer science background so know how to sniff out the genuine promising applications which I myself see a need for and a gap in the market.

There are 1000s out there which are scams but there are a few diamonds also with a long roadmap. I can also say I'm not betting the house, markets are something I've had an interest in since I was a kid and I can loose it all tomorrow morning and not give a sh#t.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b · 11-09-2018 11:47am

Viewed in retrospect, most bubbles share the same broad patterns. Whether it's dot-com stocks in the 90s, the Irish housing market from 2005-09, or Bitcoin in the past year, early investors do make a lot of money. But then, as chatter and media hype about the bubble asset picks up steam, the prospect of a get-rich-quick scheme draws in less informed investors, many of whom have minimal or no experience in the markets. This phase of the bubble is often characterized by mass euphoria and suspension of disbelief -- people who are piling their life savings into the asset share a mutually reinforcing conviction that prices will continue to surge, they will all get rich, and nothing bad will ever happen. Naysayers are viciously attacked. At that stage, though, the bubble is generally close to its peak, most of smart-money early investors have cashed in, and it's usually the late, minimally informed investors who are left holding the ball.

After the inevitable crisis hits, prices fall dramatically, and people lose money, there's usually a "return to reality" phase. Where the media used to write only positive stories about the bubble asset, suddenly they uncover numerous cases of fraud and abuse. Those who lost money then have a way to blame others for their losses. And we hear a lot of 20/20 hindsight and "I always knew this would happen."

Every bubble works much the same way. Robert Shiller has a great book on it called Irrational Exuberance. Well worth a read.

11-09-2018 12:10pm

One thing I would say to anyone thinking about investing in this stuff is stay out of the crypto forum. There seems to be an uncomfortable level of an almost desperate desire to get other people to invest while reassuring those that already have that everything will be fine.

If you’ve already bought in then, by all means, go in and join the positive chat about the choice you’ve made. Also, be sure to be ready at any moment to shout down any user who dares to question the merits of the coins. One was even banned quite recently who seemed to be speaking a lot of sense, posting copious quality links to back up his view but this didn’t go down well at all. Came across as a most measured and intelligent poster, in my humble opinion.

While I was once interested in getting into the crypto game I have largely been put off by the sheer number of over-zealous coin holders trying to get others to get in on the action.

I mean, how often do you see people trying to help perfect strangers make millions by buying into the product they’re already bought into?
Reminiscent of the types who’d rope you into selling products at those dreadful Tupperware parties.

seamus · 11-09-2018 12:33pm

Mr.S wrote: »

I do believe it will climb up again.

Bitcoin is currently in the bull trap/return to "normal" phase, aka the dead cat bounce:
https://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/images/Manias%20Bubbles.pdf

It's been prolonged because the global economy is strong, but another drop is coming for bitcoin. It's going to bottom out around $3,500 - $4,000. After that it's hard to tell, it might fall out of favour completely or experience another rally in 4-5 years.

I'd get out now while you still have something.

RIGOLO · 11-09-2018 1:22pm

seamus wrote: »

Bitcoin is currently in the bull trap/return to "normal" phase, aka the dead cat bounce:
https://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/images/Manias%20Bubbles.pdf

It's been prolonged because the global economy is strong, but another drop is coming for bitcoin. It's going to bottom out around $3,500 - $4,000. After that it's hard to tell, it might fall out of favour completely or experience another rally in 4-5 years.

I'd get out now while you still have something.

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

JJJJNR · 11-09-2018 1:32pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

How are they doomed, I'm interested to know how your writing off the whole blockchain model.

listermint · 11-09-2018 1:32pm

One thing about Crypto ,everyones an expert.

And those that are holding are even more expert than the experts.

There is no such thing as pyramid schemes.

You 'norms' just dont understand it .

JohnnyFlash · 11-09-2018 1:40pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

big time, from a technological standpoint crypto currencies in their current 'blockchain' format are doomed.

This is an excellent article from Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, about why he is so deeply sceptical about crypto currency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/transaction-costs-and-tethers-why-im-a-crypto-skeptic.html

That’s from an economists point of view. The technical reasons why blockchain has almost no valid usecases has been covered by many eminent computer science and mathematics researchers. It’s a grotesquely inefficient and expensive technology that fails at almost everything its advocates proclaim it can do: decentralised, secure, scalable.

Here’s Vincent Cerf’s summary:

https://twitter.com/vgcerf/status/1019987651301081089?s=21

RIGOLO · 11-09-2018 1:44pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

How are they doomed, I'm interested to know how your writing off the whole blockchain model.

Im not writing off blockchain per se, Im just saying as a mechanism for currency its doomed to failure on many many levels. Just take one aspect of it, go deep and theres inherent issues and fundamental flaws.
Some other uses for blockchain are out there, some may work but not to the degree people think.
Just cos you can do something, doesnt mean it makes sense at the end of the day .

please noooo .. a Paul Krugman article .. now I know bitcoin is done, once that cretin gets involved in the discussion you know the horse has left the stable and is in the next county

JJJJNR · 11-09-2018 1:54pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This is an excellent article from Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, about why he is so deeply sceptical about crypto currency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/transaction-costs-and-tethers-why-im-a-crypto-skeptic.html

That’s from an economists point of view. The technical reasons why blockchain has almost no valid usecases has been covered by many eminent computer science and mathematics researchers. It’s a grotesquely inefficient and expensive technology that fails at almost everything its advocates proclaim it can do: decentralised, secure, scalable.

Here’s Vincent Cerf’s summary:

https://twitter.com/vgcerf/status/1019987651301081089?s=21

So pointy pointy click clicky. Nothing here to see as far as I'm concerned that economist got it wrong on trump and he will get it wrong on blockchain. It's an evolving technology and some of the coins e.g. siacoin are fully decentralised and secure.

seamus · 11-09-2018 1:57pm

I don't agree that blockchain has no valid use cases. It's just become a running joke now in software circles that somehow the business-types heard about blockchain and ask their developers how this, "ground breaking new concept that changes everything" can be incorporated into their software and make billions. Without actually understanding what it is and how it works.

Software engineers being naturally inquisitive and experimental types will try and shoehorn it into things to see what will happen, but being experimental and proof-of-concept they only barely work.

The Vinton Cerf photo always makes me laugh though, because it sums it up nicely. If you don't know what blockchain is or what it does, you don't need it.

Woke Hogan · 11-09-2018 2:33pm

What uses does blockchain have then apart from scamming rubes?

11-09-2018 2:36pm

Woke Hogan wrote: »

What uses does blockchain have then apart from scamming rubes?

Data you want to be immutable. Financial records etc.

Breaky Bitcoin Blues

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