Predicting the likehood that the Muslim next door is a terrorist?

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 02:57PM #1

Does anyone have a decent formula for this type of thing?
I have gathered a lot of data by watching his daily life so even complex formulae requiring a lot of input would still be fine.

So what's the general guidelines for this type of stuff? Do we take age into account, are men more likely than women, etc? Has anyone created some sort of AI model capable of predicting this kind of stuff.

Cabaal · 01-08-2018 02:59PM

We'll have the formula as soon as the English come back with a formula to figure out if the Irish person next door is a member of the IRA and a terrorist.

I hear they are working on this since the start of the troubles, they want to be careful not to label all Irish people as terrorists and ensure they didn't treat us differently when flying to the UK.

no luck so far though
:rolleyes:

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:01PM

Cabaal wrote: »

We'll have the formula as soon as the English come back with a formula to figure out if the Irish person next door is a member of the IRA and a terrorist.

I hear they are working on this since the start of the troubles, they want to be careful not to label all Irish people as terrorists and ensure they didn't treat us differently when flying to the UK.

no luck so far though
:rolleyes:

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

This is why I don't understand why countries are allowing refugees into Europe, Italy is setting a great example so hopefully there's some light at the end of the tunnel.

Billy86 · 01-08-2018 03:02PM

Phew, this is long overdue and should definitely help with the lack of "yeah but what about the Muslims" thread on AH.

HappySerious · 01-08-2018 03:02PM

I wonder will people think this is not a troll post...doubt it....but we will see.

JMNolan · 01-08-2018 03:03PM

rand() % 2

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:04PM

I'm looking for a serious discussion about this.
What kind of data should be taken into account?

I know the secret service have a great record of preventing attacks, so they must have some good models to predict this type of stuff.

AfterLife · 01-08-2018 03:06PM

There will be lots of immigrants in here shortly to tell us to watch out for immigrants.

JMNolan · 01-08-2018 03:06PM

donaldtramp wrote: »

I'm looking for a serious discussion about this.
What kind of data should be taken into account?

I know the secret service have a great record of preventing attacks, so they must have some good models to predict this type of stuff.

The Irish secret service? Really? :eek:

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:06PM

JMNolan wrote: »

rand() % 2

I assure you that there is NOTHING random about Muslim terrorists. There is certainly a high percentage chance that they are terrorists but we still need to decide how to weed out any potential 'good' Muslims.

Sadly the responses to this thread are really forcing me to lean more towards the conclusion that the few good Muslims make it not worthwhile to bother weeding them out and as suggested by @Cabaal above, it may be better to approach this situation cautiously and assume all Muslims are terrorists.

McMurphy · 01-08-2018 03:06PM

donaldtramp wrote: »

I have gathered a lot of data by watching his daily life so even complex formulae requiring a lot of input would still be fine.

This you OP?

Cabaal · 01-08-2018 03:07PM

donaldtramp wrote: »

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

Indeed, thats why even many pubs in England didn't want Irish in them...or blacks or dogs.

They were just being "cautious"

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:07PM

JMNolan wrote: »

The Irish secret service? Really? :eek:

Well not just the Irish secret service, but ones worldwide.
However the Gardaí have made some decent arrests in the past and prevented terrorist attacks here in Ireland.

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:10PM

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed, thats why even many pubs in England didn't want Irish in them...or blacks or dogs.

They were just being "cautious"

I feel like your points are pretty irrelevant in this case. Islam being a religion and Irish being a nationality it is impossible to compare the two cases.

Honestly though the majority of Irish people would support the IRA so I have no issue with English 'assuming' we're all in the IRA. They can take whatever precautions they'd like, I'd never step foot into a protestant pub anyway, so it doesn't affect me.

Back onto topic, we should be cautious about Muslims and I think maybe a similar stance like you're suggesting (to ban them from some public places) may be justified. Your views seem a little radical to me but I understand where you're coming from.

super_furry · 01-08-2018 03:12PM

It's probably along the same lines as predicting the likelihood that any man living in your street is a rapist.

Cabaal · 01-08-2018 03:14PM

super_furry wrote: »

It's probably along the same lines as predicting the likelihood that any man living in your street is a rapist.

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure, after all you can't be too careful.

seamus · 01-08-2018 03:14PM

1,055 terrorist attacks in 2016, apparently.

There are 7.6 billion people on the planet. Which, if we mash them together means that the odds of any given person being a terrorist is about 1 in 840,000.

Naturally, attack density varies massively by region, with about three-quarters of all terrorism occurring within a 500 km radius of Iraq.

In Ireland, you are not anywhere near Iraq and the number of terror incidents in Ireland since the Omagh bombing is so small as to be insignificant.

So the odds of the person next door being a terrorist is a number very, very close to zero.

There is also a question of whether you're concerned that they might commit a terrorist act or whether they have committed one. Because in Ireland the latter is a good bit more likely than the former.

Though in balance still so unlikely as to not be worth worrying about.

super_furry · 01-08-2018 03:15PM

Cabaal wrote: »

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure.

You can't be too safe you know. We should probably treat all men as rapists because as the OP says, "it's best to be cautious".

Roger Hassenforder · 01-08-2018 03:15PM

Christ almighty, the entertaining enough 'Islam bad for Ireland' thread was shut.
DAFUQ this has even made it to two pages...?

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:16PM

seamus wrote: »

1,055 terrorist attacks in 2016, apparently.

There are 7.6 billion people on the planet. Which, if we mash them together means that the odds of any given person being a terrorist is about 1 in 840,000.

Naturally, attack density varies massively by region, with about three-quarters of all terrorism occurring within a 500 km radius of Iraq.

In Ireland, you are not anywhere near Iraq and the number of terror incidents in Ireland since the Omagh bombing is so small as to be insignificant.

So the odds of the person next door being a terrorist is a number very, very close to zero.

Now this seems like a very good conclusion.
However, you're not taking into account the literal question, that being is he a "terrorist". Having terrorist tendencies is not the same as him having carried out an attack. I think you'll find that around 75% of all Muslims side with Sharia law, which in itself is a radical belief.

Graces7 · 01-08-2018 03:17PM

donaldtramp wrote: »

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

This is why I don't understand why countries are allowing refugees into Europe, Italy is setting a great example so hopefully there's some light at the end of the tunnel.

They are refugees

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:17PM

Cabaal wrote: »

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure, after all you can't be too careful.

Wow, for a man who just suggested that we ban all Muslims from pubs, you sure are playing the devil's advocate now. Why the sudden change of view?

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:17PM

Graces7 wrote: »

They are refugees

Yes they are, that doesn't change anything....

Taytoland · 01-08-2018 03:18PM

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

Cabaal · 01-08-2018 03:20PM

super_furry wrote: »

You can't be too safe you know. We should probably treat all men as rapists because as the OP says, "it's best to be cautious".

Indeed,
Also, we know that "some" women shake their babies and this could kill them and because we don't have a formula for identifying them either so we need to assume all women will shake their babies.

We must watch everyone!

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:21PM

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

I really do appreciate the honesty. Talking to left wingers is like talking to a wall.

The guy next door forces his wife to wear black polyester all day, even when we had that heat wave a few weeks ago! Imagine what they're doing in countries like Iraq where you can sometimes see more than 40 degrees Celsius. Jesus, the religion is clearly very oppressive.

Point being, a lot of Muslims are not very happy people and there must be some way of understanding what it takes for them to become radical, so that we can predict these events before it happens.

PlaneSpeeking · 01-08-2018 03:22PM

Graces7 wrote: »

They aren't all refugees

FYP there.

donaldtramp · 01-08-2018 03:22PM

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed,
Also, we know that "some" women shake their babies and this could kill them and because we don't have a formula for identifying them either so we need to assume all women will shake their babies.

We must watch everyone!

Not sure if you're having a mental breakdown or what. Can we please stay on topic here?

We don't have a formula, and as such we are being cautious right now.. I wanted to develop a formula but you seem to think we should just outright ban them all from public places. A bit radical, but understandable, hey maybe using your logic we can ban black people too, what?????

Anyway, lets devise a formula so that we can figure out if someone is radical or not.

PlaneSpeeking · 01-08-2018 03:24PM

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

You, you, you racist!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I don't care how "woke" you think you are, if an Arab looking chap this evening is on the tram or bus and is looking shifty and fiddling with the backpack - you won't sit there and barely even register him.

Taytoland · 01-08-2018 03:26PM

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

You, you, you racist!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I don't care how "woke" you think you are, if an Arab looking chap this evening is on the tram or bus and is looking shifty and fiddling with the backpack - you won't sit there and barely even register him.

Given my location seeing a Muslim is rare enough but anytime I do I always switch on.

The Backwards Man · 01-08-2018 03:27PM

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

Sounds like something Jolene Bunting's neighbours would say.

Predicting the likehood that the Muslim next door is a terrorist?

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