Predicting the likehood that the Muslim next door is a terrorist?

donaldtramp

Does anyone have a decent formula for this type of thing?
I have gathered a lot of data by watching his daily life so even complex formulae requiring a lot of input would still be fine.

So what's the general guidelines for this type of stuff? Do we take age into account, are men more likely than women, etc? Has anyone created some sort of AI model capable of predicting this kind of stuff.

Cabaal

We'll have the formula as soon as the English come back with a formula to figure out if the Irish person next door is a member of the IRA and a terrorist.

I hear they are working on this since the start of the troubles, they want to be careful not to label all Irish people as terrorists and ensure they didn't treat us differently when flying to the UK.

no luck so far though
:rolleyes:

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

We'll have the formula as soon as the English come back with a formula to figure out if the Irish person next door is a member of the IRA and a terrorist.

I hear they are working on this since the start of the troubles, they want to be careful not to label all Irish people as terrorists and ensure they didn't treat us differently when flying to the UK.

no luck so far though
:rolleyes:

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

This is why I don't understand why countries are allowing refugees into Europe, Italy is setting a great example so hopefully there's some light at the end of the tunnel.

Billy86

Phew, this is long overdue and should definitely help with the lack of "yeah but what about the Muslims" thread on AH.

HappySerious

I wonder will people think this is not a troll post...doubt it....but we will see.

JMNolan

rand() % 2

donaldtramp

I'm looking for a serious discussion about this.
What kind of data should be taken into account?

I know the secret service have a great record of preventing attacks, so they must have some good models to predict this type of stuff.

AfterLife

There will be lots of immigrants in here shortly to tell us to watch out for immigrants.

JMNolan

donaldtramp wrote: »

I'm looking for a serious discussion about this.
What kind of data should be taken into account?

I know the secret service have a great record of preventing attacks, so they must have some good models to predict this type of stuff.

The Irish secret service? Really? :eek:

donaldtramp

JMNolan wrote: »

rand() % 2

I assure you that there is NOTHING random about Muslim terrorists. There is certainly a high percentage chance that they are terrorists but we still need to decide how to weed out any potential 'good' Muslims.

Sadly the responses to this thread are really forcing me to lean more towards the conclusion that the few good Muslims make it not worthwhile to bother weeding them out and as suggested by @Cabaal above, it may be better to approach this situation cautiously and assume all Muslims are terrorists.

McMurphy

donaldtramp wrote: »

I have gathered a lot of data by watching his daily life so even complex formulae requiring a lot of input would still be fine.

This you OP?

Cabaal

donaldtramp wrote: »

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

Indeed, thats why even many pubs in England didn't want Irish in them...or blacks or dogs.

They were just being "cautious"

donaldtramp

JMNolan wrote: »

The Irish secret service? Really? :eek:

Well not just the Irish secret service, but ones worldwide.
However the Gardaí have made some decent arrests in the past and prevented terrorist attacks here in Ireland.

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed, thats why even many pubs in England didn't want Irish in them...or blacks or dogs.

They were just being "cautious"

I feel like your points are pretty irrelevant in this case. Islam being a religion and Irish being a nationality it is impossible to compare the two cases.

Honestly though the majority of Irish people would support the IRA so I have no issue with English 'assuming' we're all in the IRA. They can take whatever precautions they'd like, I'd never step foot into a protestant pub anyway, so it doesn't affect me.

Back onto topic, we should be cautious about Muslims and I think maybe a similar stance like you're suggesting (to ban them from some public places) may be justified. Your views seem a little radical to me but I understand where you're coming from.

super_furry

It's probably along the same lines as predicting the likelihood that any man living in your street is a rapist.

Cabaal

super_furry wrote: »

It's probably along the same lines as predicting the likelihood that any man living in your street is a rapist.

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure, after all you can't be too careful.

seamus

1,055 terrorist attacks in 2016, apparently.

There are 7.6 billion people on the planet. Which, if we mash them together means that the odds of any given person being a terrorist is about 1 in 840,000.

Naturally, attack density varies massively by region, with about three-quarters of all terrorism occurring within a 500 km radius of Iraq.

In Ireland, you are not anywhere near Iraq and the number of terror incidents in Ireland since the Omagh bombing is so small as to be insignificant.

So the odds of the person next door being a terrorist is a number very, very close to zero.

There is also a question of whether you're concerned that they might commit a terrorist act or whether they have committed one. Because in Ireland the latter is a good bit more likely than the former.

Though in balance still so unlikely as to not be worth worrying about.

super_furry

Cabaal wrote: »

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure.

You can't be too safe you know. We should probably treat all men as rapists because as the OP says, "it's best to be cautious".

Roger Hassenforder

Christ almighty, the entertaining enough 'Islam bad for Ireland' thread was shut.
DAFUQ this has even made it to two pages...?

donaldtramp

seamus wrote: »

1,055 terrorist attacks in 2016, apparently.

There are 7.6 billion people on the planet. Which, if we mash them together means that the odds of any given person being a terrorist is about 1 in 840,000.

Naturally, attack density varies massively by region, with about three-quarters of all terrorism occurring within a 500 km radius of Iraq.

In Ireland, you are not anywhere near Iraq and the number of terror incidents in Ireland since the Omagh bombing is so small as to be insignificant.

So the odds of the person next door being a terrorist is a number very, very close to zero.

Now this seems like a very good conclusion.
However, you're not taking into account the literal question, that being is he a "terrorist". Having terrorist tendencies is not the same as him having carried out an attack. I think you'll find that around 75% of all Muslims side with Sharia law, which in itself is a radical belief.

Graces7

donaldtramp wrote: »

True, I think you are probably right. It's best to be cautious.

This is why I don't understand why countries are allowing refugees into Europe, Italy is setting a great example so hopefully there's some light at the end of the tunnel.

They are refugees

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

Using the OP's logic we'll just assume all men are rapists just to be sure, after all you can't be too careful.

Wow, for a man who just suggested that we ban all Muslims from pubs, you sure are playing the devil's advocate now. Why the sudden change of view?

donaldtramp

Graces7 wrote: »

They are refugees

Yes they are, that doesn't change anything....

Taytoland

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

Cabaal

super_furry wrote: »

You can't be too safe you know. We should probably treat all men as rapists because as the OP says, "it's best to be cautious".

Indeed,
Also, we know that "some" women shake their babies and this could kill them and because we don't have a formula for identifying them either so we need to assume all women will shake their babies.

We must watch everyone!

donaldtramp

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

I really do appreciate the honesty. Talking to left wingers is like talking to a wall.

The guy next door forces his wife to wear black polyester all day, even when we had that heat wave a few weeks ago! Imagine what they're doing in countries like Iraq where you can sometimes see more than 40 degrees Celsius. Jesus, the religion is clearly very oppressive.

Point being, a lot of Muslims are not very happy people and there must be some way of understanding what it takes for them to become radical, so that we can predict these events before it happens.

PlaneSpeeking

Graces7 wrote: »

They aren't all refugees

FYP there.

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed,
Also, we know that "some" women shake their babies and this could kill them and because we don't have a formula for identifying them either so we need to assume all women will shake their babies.

We must watch everyone!

Not sure if you're having a mental breakdown or what. Can we please stay on topic here?

We don't have a formula, and as such we are being cautious right now.. I wanted to develop a formula but you seem to think we should just outright ban them all from public places. A bit radical, but understandable, hey maybe using your logic we can ban black people too, what?????

Anyway, lets devise a formula so that we can figure out if someone is radical or not.

PlaneSpeeking

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

You, you, you racist!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I don't care how "woke" you think you are, if an Arab looking chap this evening is on the tram or bus and is looking shifty and fiddling with the backpack - you won't sit there and barely even register him.

Taytoland

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

You, you, you racist!!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I don't care how "woke" you think you are, if an Arab looking chap this evening is on the tram or bus and is looking shifty and fiddling with the backpack - you won't sit there and barely even register him.

Given my location seeing a Muslim is rare enough but anytime I do I always switch on.

The Backwards Man

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

Sounds like something Jolene Bunting's neighbours would say.

Roger Hassenforder

Taytoland wrote: »

I would always be wary if I lived next to Muslims for this very factor. Don't blame me, blame the barbaric religion they follow which produces a lot of lunatics blowing people to pieces all over Europe. Sorry for being honest.

My Muslim neighbours are lovely.
Our kids are always in each other's houses. Often have a kick of a ball with the dad. Im teaching the young fella how to hold a hurley his dad bought him.
Other the the hijab on the older girls and they checking sweets for pork gelatine you wouldnt know they were Muslim.

There's another family down the road. Rarely see the wife, if you do, she's full burka and walking behind the husband.

Not all Muslims are equal. It's the Islamists that dont want to integrate I've a problem with. I wonder which carry a higher risk of Jihadi tendencies? To ask this though apparently makes one a bigot/"racist"

Lash Into The Pints

Nothing wore than when you get into argument with your Muslim neighbour and he literally explodes at you.

PlaneSpeeking

Roger Hassenforder wrote: »

My Muslim neighbours are lovely.
Our kids are always in each other's houses. Often have a kick of a ball with the dad. Teaching the young fella how to hold a hurley
Other the the hijab on the older girls and they checking sweets for pork gelatine you wouldnt know they were Muslim.

Theres another family down the road. Rarely see the wife, if you do, she's full burka and waking behind the husband.

Not all Muslims are equal. It's the Islamists that dont want to integrate ive a problem with. I wonder which carry a higher risk of Jihadi tendencies? To ask this though apparently makes one a bigot/"racist"

When we had the nice weather there was a heartbreaking sight - father in jeans shorts and a t-shirt; wife and 2 daughters in the full covering - even to the point of a mesh/net in front of the wife's eyes.

How can that ever be justified by anyone ??

donaldtramp

Roger Hassenforder wrote: »

My Muslim neighbours are lovely.
Our kids are always in each other's houses. Often have a kick of a ball with the dad. Teaching the young fella how to hold a hurley
Other the the hijab on the older girls and they checking sweets for pork gelatine you wouldnt know they were Muslim.

Theres another family down the road. Rarely see the wife, if you do, she's full burka and waking behind the husband.

Not all Muslims are equal. It's the Islamists that dont want to integrate ive a problem with. I wonder which carry a higher risk of Jihadi tendencies? To ask this though apparently makes one a bigot/"racist"

Can I ask what city you live in? I suppose a few generations of Muslims have maybe integrated in certain parts, but I cannot respect those who won't adjust to our society.

Like the burkas, that's not a thing which is accepted in this country.

If I went over to their countries, I'd have to wear one to respect their cultures, but they won't do the same for us???

Roger Hassenforder

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

When we had the nice weather there was a heartbreaking sight - father in jeans shorts and a t-shirt; wife and 2 daughters in the full covering - even to the point of a mesh/net in front of the wife's eyes.

How can that ever be justified by anyone ??

Something ..cultural enrichment...falafel...Woke bae....

seamus

Who mentioned Muslims?

Also, I suspect "terrorist tendencies" probably describes about two-thirds of the entire planet, depending on how wide you want to cast your thought crime net.

Roger Hassenforder

donaldtramp wrote: »

Can I ask what city you live in? I suppose a few generations of Muslims have maybe integrated in certain parts, but I cannot respect those who won't adjust to our society.

Like the burkas, that's not a thing which is accepted in this country.

If I went over to their countries, I'd have to wear one to respect their cultures, but they won't do the same for us???

Cork city

Cabaal

donaldtramp wrote: »

Not sure if you're having a mental breakdown or what. Can we please stay on topic here?

We don't have a formula, and as such we are being cautious right now.. I wanted to develop a formula but you seem to think we should just outright ban them all from public places. A bit radical, but understandable, hey maybe using your logic we can ban black people too, what?????

Anyway, lets devise a formula so that we can figure out if someone is radical or not.

But Donald you've come up with the solution in real life also, ban all muslims.
If you are going to use your bias you might as well openly hate them all instead of pretending you don't.

Just like many English openly hated all Irish people in our past, you know, those racists English people.

donaldtramp

Roger Hassenforder wrote: »

Cork city

Well it had to be a City. I think you'll find that in smaller towns/cities this type of thing is a bit more rare.

Still, even you should be cautious about this.

I think it would be irresponsible to carelessly leave your children alone in their house. Consider the fact that the UK, a country with a fair amount more Muslims than us, have a statistic that 97% of all crimes against children are committed by Muslims. I believe there were a few Muslim pedophiles arrested a few months ago in Ireland too, so the trend obviously continues.

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

But Donald you've come up with the solution in real life also, ban all muslims.
If you are going to use your bias you might as well openly hate them all instead of pretending you don't.

Just like many English openly hated all Irish people in our past, you know, those racists English people.

It's like you think that you're really clever but you make absolutely no sense. Stop trying to sound smart and read everything you write because I'm getting tired of your meaningless similies. Stop comparing things which have nothing in common.

And you're calling me racist now.. Good argument! Can we stop this stupidity and focus on the actual question in the thread OP: What formula can be used to predict their terroristic tendencies?

The Backwards Man

100% of all trolls make a balls of themselves before the end of the first page.

AfterLife

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

When we had the nice weather there was a heartbreaking sight - father in jeans shorts and a t-shirt; wife and 2 daughters in the full covering - even to the point of a mesh/net in front of the wife's eyes.

How can that ever be justified by anyone ??

Bollocks. Kids don't cover up even in Arab countries.

PlaneSpeeking

AfterLife wrote: »

Bollocks. Kids don't cover up even in Arab countries.

Who said kids ?

Cabaal

donaldtramp wrote: »

Consider the fact that the UK, a country with a fair amount more Muslims than us, have a statistic that 97% of all crimes against children are committed by Muslims. I believe there were a few Muslim pedophiles arrested a few months ago in Ireland too, so the trend obviously continues.

Thats a pretty mad statistic, now, care to back it up with peer reviewed reliable data?
Or are you just pulling it out of thin air?

Lets look at one example.https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/14/child-grooming-sexual-abuse-race

A 2011 study by the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre looked at the 2,379 potential offenders caught grooming girls since 2008. Of 940 suspects whose race could be identified, 26% were Asian, 38% were white and 32% were recorded as unknown. Asians are roughly 7% of the population.


A report for the children's commissioner in 2012 found there were 1,514 perpetrators. Of these, 545 were white, 415 were Asian and 244 were black. The ethnicity of 21% of perpetrators was not recorded. Attempts to analyse the Asian figure further runs into problems. Just 35 of the 415 Asians are recorded as having Pakistani heritage and thus highly likely to be Muslim, and only five are recorded as being from a Bangladeshi background. The heritage of 366 of the Asian group is not stated in those figures.

Of course Asian doesn't always equal Muslim, just like Irish doesn't mean Catholic

AfterLife

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

Who said kids ?

How do you know they were his daughters then? Could be his mates surely.

Most likely you made it up with the rest of your anti-muslim anecdotes you seem to have stored up.

Cabaal

donaldtramp wrote: »

It's like you think that you're really clever but you make absolutely no sense. Stop trying to sound smart and read everything you write because I'm getting tired of your meaningless similies. Stop comparing things which have nothing in common.

And you're calling me racist now.. Good argument! Can we stop this stupidity and focus on the actual question in the thread OP: What formula can be used to predict their terroristic tendencies?

Clearly I did not call you a racist,

As I said, English people that liked to label all Irish people as terrorists were racist, you can come to your own conclusion about those that like to label all Muslims as terrorists. But given that a religious faith is not a race they can't be racists of course.

circadian

donaldtramp wrote: »

Well it had to be a City. I think you'll find that in smaller towns/cities this type of thing is a bit more rare.

Still, even you should be cautious about this.

I think it would be irresponsible to carelessly leave your children alone in their house. Consider the fact that the UK, a country with a fair amount more Muslims than us, have a statistic that 97% of all crimes against children are committed by Muslims. I believe there were a few Muslim pedophiles arrested a few months ago in Ireland too, so the trend obviously continues.

PlaneSpeeking

AfterLife wrote: »

How do you know they were his daughters then? Could be his mates surely.

"His mates". Two individuals, around a head shorter than the mother and wearing full on Saudi-level niqabs.

Mates. Have a word with yourself eh ?

donaldtramp

Cabaal wrote: »

Thats a pretty mad statistic, now, care to back it up with peer reviewed reliable data?
Or are you just pulling it out of thin air?

Well, here's a slightly different statistic, which is a bit older.

Studies have found that 84% of all people convicted since 2005 for the specific crime of gang grooming in the UK were Asian, primarily British Pakistani men of Muslim origin.

2005 there were nowhere near the same amount of Muslims, if we're talking just 2018, it's closer to 97%. I need to find that statistic though, but for now the statistic above is still scary. Look into the Rotherham scandal.

AfterLife

PlaneSpeeking wrote: »

"His mates". Two individuals, around a head shorter than the mother and wearing full on Saudi-level niqabs.

Mates. Have a word with yourself eh ?

Another one of your waking nightmares I'd imagine. I'd have a word with a professional if I was you.