Varadkar puts FineGael on election footing

blanch152 wrote: »

Sinn Fein would also like an election.

I'm not entirely sure they want an election right now. Mary Lou is doing good work as the new leader, but she could do with another 6 - 12 months to build her support.

If Sinn Féin wanted an election then they would have already made a clear statement that they will table a no confidence motion and would build towards that in the coming weeks. The fact that they haven't shows that they are uncertain how to proceed.

I reckon Sinn Féin will only table the motion if they feel Fianna Fáil will back the Government, thus preventing an election but giving them a political win over the summer. However it seems they now fear that Fianna Fáil could in fact vote with them leading to an immediate election which will benefit Fine Gael the most.

The Sinn Féin Ard Fheis this weekend will tell a lot. I could be wrong and Mary Lou could use it to announce they will table a no-confidence motion. If that's the case then it's game on for Sinn Féin. If they don't, and continue with the 'we'll see what happens' approach then they clearly don't want an election.

blanch152 wrote: »

It is a problem of the new arithmetic of the Dail. With only one of the three parties in power, if two of the three want an election, the third will be left in an impossible position.

Fianna Fail are the ones running for cover now. They are unpopular in the polls, divided on abortion and will look like patsies for the government if they back Murphy, thus compounding their problems. I can see why SF want to table this and why FG will use it as an excuse for an election.

You could nearly be sorry for FF if they hadn't ruined the country.

Fianna Fáil are between a rock and a hard place. It seems they are the least prepared to fight an election now, but if they fail to support Sinn Féin in a confidence motion then they are handing them a big victory. They were meant to have gotten big concessions on housing during the last two budgets but it's had no impact on the ground. The housing crisis is getting worse.

EDIT: Sinn Féin have failed to table a no-confidence motion for next week.

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1007587160197877762

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Honestly, I think this is a bluff. Why would FF want to go for a September election? There's no evidence that they're any better off in the polls than they have been since the last election - minor fluctuations here and there, but for the most part FG are riding the back of a serious wave with SSM and Repeal, added to what's likely to be another conservative budget with some giveaways... I don't see the benefit here to FF other than FG haven't turned their successes recently into any better polling figures either.

We're looking at an election to put us back in the exact same position - it baffles me a bit!

It seems Fianna Fáil are terrified of an election in the next few months. They seem to be really on the back foot following the 8th amendment referendum campaign. Fine Gael have also opened up a significant lead in the opinion polls. I reckon you're right about them bluffing.

I don't necessarily buy this argument that the next election will return the same outcome. The last RedC opinion poll from May showed Fine Gael to be on 34% with Fianna Fáil on 25%. Fine Gael secured 36% in 2011 and returned 76 seats. It is possible for them to pull something similar off again if things go well for them during a campaign. If they do manage to do that then they would easily form a coalition Government with Independent groups and smaller parties.

It's a huge risk to take for sure, but Leo is well aware that they are riding high in the polls at the moment. That might not be the case this time next year if Brexit goes wrong, if the international economy turns given the trade tensions and the agriculture sector continues to struggle given the bizzare weather we are currently having.

Arguably there might not be a better time to go for Fine Gael than in the autumn. Leo will also be well aware that Enda Kenny would have done far better if he went to the country in November 2015 rather than waiting until February 2016.

Leo's problem is that he needs an excuse to call an election. I reckon he's trying to setup a situation to blame Fianna Fáil because they won't extend the Confidence and Supply Agreement in advance of the budget. He will say he can't risk political instability during the final stages of the Brexit talks. The problem with that strategy is that Fianna Fáil might cave in and actually extend the agreement before the budget. Although if Fianna Fáil do that they're putting up the white flag and are pretty much stating for all to see that they are a spent force.