FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi · 02-03-2018 9:44am #1

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Thanks

Donegal Storm · 29-05-2018 1:01am

Haven't been following the models much of late but it seems like a really unusual pattern we're in at the moment. We're sort of stuck in a no-mans land on the edge of various high pressure systems and the Iceland low that so often ruins our summers is nowhere to be seen. More like what you'd expect in Central Europe.

Loving the outlook though, settled with any rain in the form of brief convective downpours, exactly what summers should be like

sdanseo · 29-05-2018 6:12pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

564 dam line in through Ireland. I think the atmosphere has gone mad.

Global warmi....no, better not go there :pac:

Mobhi1 · 29-05-2018 6:57pm

Some very low 850hPa temperatures over the Iberian peninsula.

Danno · 30-05-2018 2:37am

sdanseo wrote: »

The GFS Para for next Wednesday (caveat: it's 9 days away) is absolutely stunning:

Fairly close

sryanbruen · 30-05-2018 11:16pm

To further Kermit's post in the Spring discussion thread, the GFS 12z is still showing the high retrogressing somewhat on Sunday/Monday before building over us from Tuesday to about Friday next week bringing further settled and dry weather. Very warm towards Thursday/Friday with the 564 dam line making it in through us.

The second week of June is likely to be temporarily unsettled with westerlies for a time but then high pressure could quickly come back.

The GFS 0z this morning didn't show this very warm period for the 7th/8th June and in fact, it showed us into an unsettled pattern. The ECM 0z did show the very warm period and the 12z shows it again.

ECM 12z upper air temperatures for Thursday 7th June.

Nature might be cooking something up for us. Mmmmmm

sryanbruen · 31-05-2018 12:35pm

0z runs this morning both showing the warm period for Wednesday 6th to Friday 8th June. The ECM has it as quite a short snap of warmth with upper airs going down to 3 or 4c on Friday. Note the 564 dam line is much further southwards.

GFS.

ECM.

sryanbruen · 01-06-2018 5:02pm

Good evening.

sryanbruen · 02-06-2018 9:34pm

ECM 12z is a strange run. It has temperature anomalies above average for Ireland (and below par for England & Wales) yet there's low pressure right over top of the UK and Ireland.

The GFS has the low much further southwards down to the Bay of Biscay.

Harry Palmr · 02-06-2018 10:08pm

It's all breaking down, summers over.

km79 · 02-06-2018 10:12pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's all breaking down, summers over.

At least all the people complaining about this pesky heat will be happy
Sigh

pauldry · 02-06-2018 10:37pm

Happens most years a good week to 10 days near end of May start of June then showers most days from then on.

Still hopeful of more High pressures through the Summer but no 1976 1995 type one

sryanbruen · 02-06-2018 10:41pm

UKMO 12z was similar to the GFS with the low down to the Bay of Biscay. However, to the south of Ireland, the gradients are slacker with an unstable easterly flow.

ECM was such a weird run.

Harry Palmr · 02-06-2018 10:54pm

pauldry wrote: »

Happens most years a good week to 10 days near end of May start of June then showers most days from then on.

Still hopeful of more High pressures through the Summer but no 1976 1995 type one

AKA Exam weather

sryanbruen · 03-06-2018 9:56am

The throwing toys out of the pram wasn't necessary whatsoever, it was one run of the ECM. It was highly likely to change given agreement of the other models and the fact that the ECM has been extremely inconsistent a lot lately.

Now look at the ECM 0z this morning. It has the low much further southwards and the high pressure ridges over Ireland keeping things quiet, settled and relatively warm.

Meteorite58 · 03-06-2018 3:11pm

GFS showing a return to more average type Irish summer weather / temperatures ( if somewhat cooler further out ) and wanting to introduce LP from the W. Showing a return of the Jet from the W also. ECM still hanging on to warmer then average temperatures out to +240

sryanbruen · 03-06-2018 3:49pm

Yes the GFS has now come in line with what the ECM was showing briefly yesterday although not nearly as bad. Saying that judging by the 06z ensembles, it looks very temporary and way out into FI, there's growing confidence of the developments of another warm and dry spell noted by the slowly rising 850hPa temperatures here and the precipitation spikes going back down.

The westerly phase also from a Dublin point of view here doesn't look terrible in terms of rainfall either. Just average temperatures and light rain.

Cork is very similar.

sryanbruen · 03-06-2018 6:46pm

And the 12z brings the high pressure back over Ireland for next weekend in comparison to the other runs. Just yesterday the models were showing an easterly yet again for next weekend but now it's more of a southwesterly or variable wind direction with high pressure ridging from the Azores. This would mean warmer temperatures for the east of the country than recently.

Jet stream is closer to us on the UKMO than the GFS and if we could go on a day or so more with the model, I'd think we would find ourselves in the westerly flow taking over.

We shall see what the ECM 12z has to say very shortly.

It's clear that we're going to have a breakdown of the pattern for a brief period of time (at least for the past few days) but what is not clear is when exactly this is going to take off. Need trends

sryanbruen · 03-06-2018 8:22pm

Ok so, ECM 12z is kind of a flat westerly run. Nothing overly wet, nothing overly cool either. Nothing really to comment on here.

I'm hoping we have a somewhat more clearer picture this time tomorrow.

sryanbruen · 04-06-2018 11:20am

GFS 0z keeps the high pressure over us until around Monday or Tuesday next week then the westerlies take over with quite a deep area of low pressure for the time of year pushing towards us by Wednesday/Thursday then. This is not the first time the GFS has picked up on this, yesterday's 0z run also did it. This 0z run has it relatively less deeper.

ECM 0z is just a flat westerly like yesterday's 12z from the model. Note the strength of the Azores High though on the ECM run.

sryanbruen · 04-06-2018 2:56pm

If the GFS 06z was right, we'd be in for a deluge.

GFS 06z ensembles for Dublin show further warm weather out to next Monday which is when the temperatures gradually start to cool down then. There is some localised thundery shower potential for Friday again.

You can see the OP run above from the 06z on this ensemble as an outlier on the precipitation lines - I have highlighted it. It is not well supported to be that bad.

Temperatures (at least at 850hPa) don't go cooler than average really any time just staying relatively mild to average. No doubt though that if the GFS 06z OP were to come off with its deluge, it would be very cool regardless of the upper air temperatures as the temperatures drop in the heavy rain.

Think we're starting to see a trend on some low pressure or depression coming across the Atlantic to Ireland for around Thursday 14th June. Got to remember, that's 10 days away so not worth delving into too much especially with all this uncertainty currently.

Yesterday on the ensembles, it looked like we could go into another warm spell at the end of June. This morning's ones don't really show this but at the end of the OP run, there is signs of the Azores High ridging up to us. Other outlooks such as the UKMO or the CFSv2 for the end of June do agree on a potential warm spell at the end of June and start of July.

For the next few days, expect it to continue warm and dry.

Will report on the 12z runs again this evening.

Artane2002 · 04-06-2018 3:32pm

That GFS 6Z is ridiculous! It's not only us that are stuck with the rain but it's pretty much most of Europe! (not that I believe it, it's just strange to look at)

SleetAndSnow · 04-06-2018 4:38pm

I seriously hope that doesn't happen. I have an entire outdoor birthday party planned

c'mon gfs

Looks Fishy to have that much rain in that large of an area.

sryanbruen · 04-06-2018 6:31pm

The GFS 12z is very different again! Basically ridging after ridging bar one blip of the jet stream southwards from Sunday to Tuesday next week. Doesn't make my life any easier. Ay ay ay. Literally zero sign of the deluge that the 06z showed. Not a huge surprise because the 06z is as reliable as the 18z aka the Pub Run and added onto that, it was +272 hrs out!

I've just been getting very used to the consistency of the model these past few months.

ECM 12z is going to be soon but I guess we haven't gotten anywhere further than where we were last night.

As I said in my earlier post, keep an eye on the strength of the Azores High on these runs. It will play a major role in where we will go for this Summer. The best summers have very strong Azores Highs/Scandi Highs and I still believe this Summer has potential to be a classic as a result.

A possible reason for this inconsistency could be because of the fact that this Summer maybe highly unusual and the models are trying to get grips of it much like the Beast From the East earlier this year.

squarecircles · 04-06-2018 10:31pm

its bliss.

sryanbruen · 05-06-2018 11:09am

GFS and ECM now on their 0z runs both show the depression for around the 14th June to produce quite a bit of rain. Mind you, not as much as the GFS 06z suggested yesterday. Upper air temperatures quite average but going by the wind direction and the rain, I think daytime temperatures would be mid-teens at best.

Although, the evolution the models show here (especially the GFS) for the jet stream maybe a bit too quick to go down that track. We shall see.

Meteorite58 · 05-06-2018 11:31am

Looks like similar type weather as we are getting currently from here to early next week, possibly W'lys / NW'lys after that with the introduction of a Longwave Trough being shown to amplify over us which would possibly introduce more unsettled and bit cooler weather.

Strong jet nearby, negative tilt with cold uppers ,could get sparky at the end of next week. Long way off, subject to change.

sryanbruen · 05-06-2018 6:33pm

GFS 12z is just your average westerly pattern with one deep depression for Friday 15th and that's it.

Still looking like this could be quite short of an unsettled pattern though as the Azores attempts to throw up a ridge and turn the winds back into the south to southeast by the third to fourth week of June.

Sure GFS :pac:.

hatrickpatrick · 05-06-2018 8:08pm

On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.

sdanseo · 05-06-2018 10:09pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.

Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here

sryanbruen · 05-06-2018 11:42pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: [url=]here[/url]

Here's one tweet from Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company that suggests so.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1004014745874247687

I think everything is still on course to what I am expecting.

On another note, CFSv2 is continuing to show a very strong July for warmth and dry weather with a huge emphasis on Ireland in particular. Its 700mb height anomaly is strikingly similar to that of July 1955's 500mb height anomaly which if you are not aware holds Ireland's highest monthly sunshine total on record of 308.2 hours at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1004079867846152199

ECM 12z wants to delay the Atlantic interlude to later next week than mid-week as shown by the GFS or early next week by the UKMO. Still seems we're trying to achieve an exact time on the change of pattern or blip but we're getting there!

hatrickpatrick · 06-06-2018 3:05am

sdanseo wrote: »

Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here

Apologies, the forecast I mistook for the official NHC one was in fact the CSU forecast (Colorado State University) which is probably tied with TSR as the next-best long-term forecast after NOAA itself.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf

This was published on May 31, nearly two months after the previous April 5 report which called for an above-average season:

We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

I can't find the report which tied the negative AMO / low Atlantic SSTs to the strong +NAO, should've bookmarked it, but it was a similarly credible one. Might possibly have been TSR, I'll have a look tomorrow and see if I can find it in my history. The correlation between a strong Azores high and unfavourable wind shear for hurricanes was made in the same document IIRC, and it was only published in the last couple of weeks.

sryanbruen · 07-06-2018 11:54am

So normal service is on next week with the jet stream arriving back from its holidays and if some of the runs are correct especially the latest GFS 0z, we could be in for some very wet days from Wednesday evening onwards. Here's examples of bands of rain that the GFS 0z showed:

Wednesday 13th afternoon/evening

Thursday 14th morning

Friday 15th evening

Monday 18th afternoon

Rainfall totals in some areas going by the above could be totalling more than 50mm in these few days which will be the wettest period anywhere has seen since early April. So the GFS leaves a lot to be desired.

The ECM continues to delay the Atlantic somewhat to Thursday/Friday than Wednesday but nevertheless, we do go into a westerly regime. The ECM at +240 hours does show the Azores attempting to throw up a ridge to the south just abouts.

In terms of the temperatures, both models show generally average temperatures though by the third week of June (which is well into FI), the GFS shows negative upper air temperatures (temperatures below 0c). However, now that the GFS is back to its normal self i.e. it chops and changes very quickly, don't really expect this to hang on for long - just look at what the 12z showed the other day in FI above for example.

The potential of another warm spell for the end of June continues, no changes on that though the GFS 0z run is not that promising (unless you're really in need of rain).

pauldry · 07-06-2018 9:56pm

Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

Still what a spell.

Dont be too evil weather Gods.

remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.

sryanbruen · 07-06-2018 10:11pm

pauldry wrote: »

Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

Still what a spell.

Dont be too evil weather Gods.

remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.

Sshhhhh they don't know that.

Outlook is still much the same with the 12z models. Perhaps Tuesday will bring in a very brief ridge from the Azores. The GFS 12z OP is a very cool run - see in the ensembles here - thankfully for the moment, it's an outlier and temperatures are on the up again here in the ensembles following this Atlantic onslaught or interlude.

Kutebride · 08-06-2018 1:37pm

Oh man Friday 15th

Boo the breakdown. Following with interest.

sryanbruen · 08-06-2018 3:31pm

The return of the westerlies has been downgraded today with no precipitation spikes appearing at all (for Dublin at least) until next Friday. These precipitation spikes that do appear then are very small and not really a lot of wet weather being shown on the ensemble. Warm weather seems to have extended 'til then too as you can see from the ensemble. Previously it looked like going until the 11th (next Monday) so that's quite an upgrade. It also appears that there is like one single day on the ensemble with average 850hPa temperatures and all the rest relatively warmer than average.

All in all, quite a downgrade of the westerlies but quite an upgrade for warm and dry weather. We shall see if this is a new theme now or if the models are still trying to get a grip of the exact pattern that is going to take place.

This in some ways reminds me of June 2013 quite a bit. June 2013 started off with a warm and dry spell then the second week was very wet and cool whilst the second half was largely changeable.

The jet stream is very close to the west on both the GFS and ECM runs but the Azores keeps throwing up ridges into the south and east of the country shoving the jet stream northwestwards. +240 hrs on the ECM 0z really showed the Azores ridge taking over the pattern.

pauldry · 08-06-2018 4:10pm

saw that too

i still think therel be a cool down next week but hopefully not a severe breakdown

a few days of 17 or 18c and a small dropeen of rain and then back into the 20s to end the month

SleetAndSnow · 08-06-2018 4:11pm

Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm

sryanbruen · 08-06-2018 11:09pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm

You have similar ensembles to Dublin above.

Meanwhile, second consecutive run of the ECM showing the Azores fighting against the Atlantic near the end of its run with the heat building especially to the south of both the UK and Ireland. With that high pressure to the east and south, the low pressures out to the west just cannot push through.

Only sharing this for fun for now.

Increasingly looking like a blip rather than a complete pattern change. Uncertainty remains though.

The P11 from the GFS 06z ensembles was in particular stunning.

Meteorite58 · 08-06-2018 11:50pm

ECM showing possible windy spells on the Atlantic side of the country coming up to and next weekend as LP systems track up towards Iceland, staying well offshore for now but you would imagine some bands of rain. Temperatures fluctuating as warm air is dragged up in SW'lys with probable cold /warm front ( warm sector ) set ups. Charts just for guidance as no doubt will change over the coming days.

Meteorite58 · 09-06-2018 12:04am

ECM atm showing the jet all over us from the second half of the week getting the Atlantic mobile again and possibly keeping things unsettled for a bit. No sign of HP over us but ECM showing ridging up from the Azores at the end of the run as sryanbruen mentioned. A lot could happen between now and then though.

patneve2 · 09-06-2018 12:13am

Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless

Meteorite58 · 09-06-2018 12:17am

patneve2 wrote: »

Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless

I think I wold be like JCX BXC and investing in a fan or mini air conditioning unit if that happens !

km79 · 09-06-2018 12:50am

Had a walk outside there and it feels chilly
Why anyone would want that moving into July is beyond me!!!!!
Bring on more heat

ninebeanrows · 09-06-2018 12:53am

Never predict a breakdown

JCX BXC · 09-06-2018 12:56am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

I think I wold be like JCX BXC and investing in a fan or mini air conditioning unit if that happens !

Was I Tesco a few hours ago with their air conditioning, it was great

Love the hot weather, but my God it sticks around at night.

Slowly becoming acclimatised. Once the cool weather comes back we'll all be in for a shock!

sryanbruen · 09-06-2018 1:09am

I just logged off for the night. Don’t tell me the Pub Run has gone a bit too much on the overdosing again. Oh boy.

I mean going by what 2018 has been so far, it seems that every bit of crazy possibility has been happening so I wouldn’t totally rule it out. But then again GFS 18z is the GFS 18z.

The downgrade of the westerlies was quite dramatic from the previous days. It’s a battle of the Azores High and the jet stream. Who’s going to win?

sryanbruen · 09-06-2018 10:14am

A bigger influence from the Atlantic on this morning's runs.

Accumulated precipitation up to Tuesday 19th.

Around +288 hrs, the GFS 0z builds this ridge over us from the Azores. ECM does not go out this far, the furthest it can go is Tuesday 19th and by then the high is laying to the south of Ireland with the jet stream over the north.

sryanbruen · 09-06-2018 6:59pm

This really is a period of high uncertainty!

GFS is zonal throughout its run and at times quite cool with quite a dartboard low for Monday 18th/Tuesday 19th. Now it's showing a dramatic upgrade of the westerlies!

UKMO shows a very deep area of low pressure just to the north Atlantic for later next week as does the GEM. However, the GEM brings in a ridge from the Azores to the south of the country at the time the GFS shows that dartboard low though cloudier close to the jet stream up to the north. Look at it just for fun for now because it's almost certain that it's going to change in its next run.

A positive thing though is the lack of northern blocking. There are no signs of pressure rising over the Arctic or Greenland to force the jet stream southwards and the Azores High is quite strong.

GFS 12z

UKMO 12z

GEM 12z

sryanbruen · 09-06-2018 8:52pm

Atrociously bad ECM 12z run in FI. Very different to every run we've had including the ECM 12z from yesterday. It shows northerlies and very cool conditions taking over at +240 hrs.

2012-like charts here. Yuck!

Let me remind you what the ECM 12z yesterday was showing at this time frame.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST