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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

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This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Haven't been following the models much of late but it seems like a really unusual pattern we're in at the moment. We're sort of stuck in a no-mans land on the edge of various high pressure systems and the Iceland low that so often ruins our summers is nowhere to be seen. More like what you'd expect in Central Europe.

Loving the outlook though, settled with any rain in the form of brief convective downpours, exactly what summers should be like

sryanbruen wrote: »

564 dam line in through Ireland. I think the atmosphere has gone mad.

Global warmi....no, better not go there :pac:

Some very low 850hPa temperatures over the Iberian peninsula.

sdanseo wrote: »

The GFS Para for next Wednesday (caveat: it's 9 days away) is absolutely stunning:

Fairly close

To further Kermit's post in the Spring discussion thread, the GFS 12z is still showing the high retrogressing somewhat on Sunday/Monday before building over us from Tuesday to about Friday next week bringing further settled and dry weather. Very warm towards Thursday/Friday with the 564 dam line making it in through us.

The second week of June is likely to be temporarily unsettled with westerlies for a time but then high pressure could quickly come back.

The GFS 0z this morning didn't show this very warm period for the 7th/8th June and in fact, it showed us into an unsettled pattern. The ECM 0z did show the very warm period and the 12z shows it again.

ECM 12z upper air temperatures for Thursday 7th June.

Nature might be cooking something up for us. Mmmmmm

0z runs this morning both showing the warm period for Wednesday 6th to Friday 8th June. The ECM has it as quite a short snap of warmth with upper airs going down to 3 or 4c on Friday. Note the 564 dam line is much further southwards.

GFS.

ECM.

Good evening.

ECM 12z is a strange run. It has temperature anomalies above average for Ireland (and below par for England & Wales) yet there's low pressure right over top of the UK and Ireland.

The GFS has the low much further southwards down to the Bay of Biscay.

It's all breaking down, summers over.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's all breaking down, summers over.

At least all the people complaining about this pesky heat will be happy
Sigh

Happens most years a good week to 10 days near end of May start of June then showers most days from then on.

Still hopeful of more High pressures through the Summer but no 1976 1995 type one

UKMO 12z was similar to the GFS with the low down to the Bay of Biscay. However, to the south of Ireland, the gradients are slacker with an unstable easterly flow.

ECM was such a weird run.

pauldry wrote: »

Happens most years a good week to 10 days near end of May start of June then showers most days from then on.

Still hopeful of more High pressures through the Summer but no 1976 1995 type one

AKA Exam weather

The throwing toys out of the pram wasn't necessary whatsoever, it was one run of the ECM. It was highly likely to change given agreement of the other models and the fact that the ECM has been extremely inconsistent a lot lately.

Now look at the ECM 0z this morning. It has the low much further southwards and the high pressure ridges over Ireland keeping things quiet, settled and relatively warm.

GFS showing a return to more average type Irish summer weather / temperatures ( if somewhat cooler further out ) and wanting to introduce LP from the W. Showing a return of the Jet from the W also. ECM still hanging on to warmer then average temperatures out to +240

Yes the GFS has now come in line with what the ECM was showing briefly yesterday although not nearly as bad. Saying that judging by the 06z ensembles, it looks very temporary and way out into FI, there's growing confidence of the developments of another warm and dry spell noted by the slowly rising 850hPa temperatures here and the precipitation spikes going back down.

The westerly phase also from a Dublin point of view here doesn't look terrible in terms of rainfall either. Just average temperatures and light rain.

Cork is very similar.

And the 12z brings the high pressure back over Ireland for next weekend in comparison to the other runs. Just yesterday the models were showing an easterly yet again for next weekend but now it's more of a southwesterly or variable wind direction with high pressure ridging from the Azores. This would mean warmer temperatures for the east of the country than recently.

Jet stream is closer to us on the UKMO than the GFS and if we could go on a day or so more with the model, I'd think we would find ourselves in the westerly flow taking over.

We shall see what the ECM 12z has to say very shortly.

It's clear that we're going to have a breakdown of the pattern for a brief period of time (at least for the past few days) but what is not clear is when exactly this is going to take off. Need trends

Ok so, ECM 12z is kind of a flat westerly run. Nothing overly wet, nothing overly cool either. Nothing really to comment on here.

I'm hoping we have a somewhat more clearer picture this time tomorrow.

GFS 0z keeps the high pressure over us until around Monday or Tuesday next week then the westerlies take over with quite a deep area of low pressure for the time of year pushing towards us by Wednesday/Thursday then. This is not the first time the GFS has picked up on this, yesterday's 0z run also did it. This 0z run has it relatively less deeper.

ECM 0z is just a flat westerly like yesterday's 12z from the model. Note the strength of the Azores High though on the ECM run.

If the GFS 06z was right, we'd be in for a deluge.

GFS 06z ensembles for Dublin show further warm weather out to next Monday which is when the temperatures gradually start to cool down then. There is some localised thundery shower potential for Friday again.

You can see the OP run above from the 06z on this ensemble as an outlier on the precipitation lines - I have highlighted it. It is not well supported to be that bad.

Temperatures (at least at 850hPa) don't go cooler than average really any time just staying relatively mild to average. No doubt though that if the GFS 06z OP were to come off with its deluge, it would be very cool regardless of the upper air temperatures as the temperatures drop in the heavy rain.

Think we're starting to see a trend on some low pressure or depression coming across the Atlantic to Ireland for around Thursday 14th June. Got to remember, that's 10 days away so not worth delving into too much especially with all this uncertainty currently.

Yesterday on the ensembles, it looked like we could go into another warm spell at the end of June. This morning's ones don't really show this but at the end of the OP run, there is signs of the Azores High ridging up to us. Other outlooks such as the UKMO or the CFSv2 for the end of June do agree on a potential warm spell at the end of June and start of July.

For the next few days, expect it to continue warm and dry.

Will report on the 12z runs again this evening.

That GFS 6Z is ridiculous! It's not only us that are stuck with the rain but it's pretty much most of Europe! (not that I believe it, it's just strange to look at)

I seriously hope that doesn't happen. I have an entire outdoor birthday party planned

c'mon gfs

Looks Fishy to have that much rain in that large of an area.

The GFS 12z is very different again! Basically ridging after ridging bar one blip of the jet stream southwards from Sunday to Tuesday next week. Doesn't make my life any easier. Ay ay ay. Literally zero sign of the deluge that the 06z showed. Not a huge surprise because the 06z is as reliable as the 18z aka the Pub Run and added onto that, it was +272 hrs out!

I've just been getting very used to the consistency of the model these past few months.

ECM 12z is going to be soon but I guess we haven't gotten anywhere further than where we were last night.

As I said in my earlier post, keep an eye on the strength of the Azores High on these runs. It will play a major role in where we will go for this Summer. The best summers have very strong Azores Highs/Scandi Highs and I still believe this Summer has potential to be a classic as a result.

A possible reason for this inconsistency could be because of the fact that this Summer maybe highly unusual and the models are trying to get grips of it much like the Beast From the East earlier this year.

its bliss.

GFS and ECM now on their 0z runs both show the depression for around the 14th June to produce quite a bit of rain. Mind you, not as much as the GFS 06z suggested yesterday. Upper air temperatures quite average but going by the wind direction and the rain, I think daytime temperatures would be mid-teens at best.

Although, the evolution the models show here (especially the GFS) for the jet stream maybe a bit too quick to go down that track. We shall see.

Looks like similar type weather as we are getting currently from here to early next week, possibly W'lys / NW'lys after that with the introduction of a Longwave Trough being shown to amplify over us which would possibly introduce more unsettled and bit cooler weather.

Strong jet nearby, negative tilt with cold uppers ,could get sparky at the end of next week. Long way off, subject to change.

GFS 12z is just your average westerly pattern with one deep depression for Friday 15th and that's it.

Still looking like this could be quite short of an unsettled pattern though as the Azores attempts to throw up a ridge and turn the winds back into the south to southeast by the third to fourth week of June.

Sure GFS :pac:.

On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.

Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here

sdanseo wrote: »

Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: [url=]here[/url]

Here's one tweet from Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company that suggests so.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1004014745874247687

I think everything is still on course to what I am expecting.

On another note, CFSv2 is continuing to show a very strong July for warmth and dry weather with a huge emphasis on Ireland in particular. Its 700mb height anomaly is strikingly similar to that of July 1955's 500mb height anomaly which if you are not aware holds Ireland's highest monthly sunshine total on record of 308.2 hours at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1004079867846152199

ECM 12z wants to delay the Atlantic interlude to later next week than mid-week as shown by the GFS or early next week by the UKMO. Still seems we're trying to achieve an exact time on the change of pattern or blip but we're getting there!