Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

Kriicc · 25-05-2018 02:49PM

Voted yes of course

revelman · 25-05-2018 02:50PM

eeepaulo wrote: »

Sorry, this had probably been asked but it's impossible to search for without trawling through all the thread, will there be an official exit poll?

There will be an exit poll on the Late Late Show tonight. But another poster said it will be at the end of the show. Perhaps they are hoping people will watch the full show?

ted1 · 25-05-2018 02:51PM

revelman wrote: »

eeepaulo wrote: »

Sorry, this had probably been asked but it's impossible to search for without trawling through all the thread, will there be an official exit poll?

There will be an exit poll on the Late Late Show tonight. But another poster said it will be at the end of the show. Perhaps they are hoping people will watch the full show?

They need to wait for the polls to close as they can’t discuss it earlier

revelman · 25-05-2018 02:52PM

ted1 wrote: »

They need to wait for the polls to close as they can’t discuss it earlier

I guess they also need time to tally and confirm it.

circadian · 25-05-2018 02:53PM

Working class heroes wrote: »

I’m on the No side myself.
However I gave my vote to my 16 year old daughter and she is on the yes side, just about. Not entirely legal I know but I reasoned it’s a lot more relevant to her than me.

That's some solid parenting there. I'd like to think when I'm older and able to make these decisions and my kids still can't that I'd take their opinion into account and do right by them.

revelman · 25-05-2018 02:54PM

Odds are drifting on the No vote on Oddschecker. It was 9/2 this morning. It is now 11/2. Mind you the wisdom of crowds was wrong with Brexit and Trump but interesting nonetheless.

munsterlegend · 25-05-2018 02:54PM

revelman wrote: »

There will be an exit poll on the Late Late Show tonight. But another poster said it will be at the end of the show. Perhaps they are hoping people will watch the full show?

Of course they are. An exit poll with two choices should be ready within a few minutes.

FizzleSticks · 25-05-2018 02:54PM

This post has been deleted.

SusieBlue · 25-05-2018 02:55PM

revelman wrote: »

Odds are drifting on the No vote on Oddschecker. It was 9/2 this morning. It is now 11/2. Mind you the wisdom of crowds was wrong with Brexit and Trump but interesting nonetheless.

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

facehugger99 · 25-05-2018 02:56PM

Just back - pretty quiet about 6 or 7 people, all oldies. I'd guess 'No' voters.

Could be to do with the time of day.

revelman · 25-05-2018 02:57PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

This morning if you put 10 euro down on a No victory you should have won 45 euro. Now if you do the same you will win 55 euro, meaning betters see it as even less likely that No will win.

Personally, I find the whole idea of betting on this referendum a bit inappapropriate. But each to their own I guess.

mayordenis · 25-05-2018 02:57PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

before if you put a bet of €2 down, you would get €9 back. Now, if you put a bet of €2 down, you would get €11 back. So, it means the bookie thinks it's less probable now.

kunst nugget · 25-05-2018 02:57PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

That the odds are lessening for a No victory in the bookies’ eyes.

25-05-2018 02:58PM

FizzleSticks wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Yeah it's only the last few days I noticed some No voters sticking their heads out.

Went yes myself.

robinph · 25-05-2018 02:58PM

revelman wrote: »

I guess they also need time to tally and confirm it.

The exit poll doesn't need to wait until the end of the voting to be calculated. They will ask a few people leaving a few polling stations at some point during the day, put the numbers through a magic formula and spit out a guesstimate. Other than allowing for different demographics turning up at different points of the day they would already have a fair guess of what turnout and their exit poll numbers will be.

They just can't announce that until actual voting has completed.

RobertKK · 25-05-2018 02:59PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

Odds are based on where people are placing their money, if I was betting I would bet on Yes to win.

Billy86 · 25-05-2018 02:59PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

That the odds are lessening for a No victory in the bookies’ eyes.

At 11/2 they would actually be going further out/increasing, as they were 5/1 yesterday when I checked (Paddy; wouldn't bet on this but was curious) and apparently 9/2 a few hours ago.

revelman · 25-05-2018 02:59PM

FizzleSticks wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Yes, a number of people I know have come out as No voters. This has a very Brexity/Trumpy feel about it though I still think it will be 55% Yes.

kunst nugget · 25-05-2018 03:00PM

Surrounded by a good few No voters here in work - I'd be in the minority here. I can see a few Midlands constituencies returning a No Vote.

kunst nugget · 25-05-2018 03:03PM

Billy86 wrote: »

At 11/2 they would actually be going further out/increasing, as they were 5/1 yesterday when I checked (Paddy; wouldn't bet on this but was curious) and apparently 9/2 a few hours ago.

Probably phrased it badly but I meant that it indicates that the bookies are seeing a No victory as less likely - only just mind.

secman · 25-05-2018 03:03PM

Voted No

Adamocovic · 25-05-2018 03:03PM

revelman wrote: »

Odds are drifting on the No vote on Oddschecker. It was 9/2 this morning. It is now 11/2. Mind you the wisdom of crowds was wrong with Brexit and Trump but interesting nonetheless.

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

So if we're talking about waging a bet.

If you put €2 down on a "No" vote earlier to be the outcome, and it happened you would receive €9 and your initial bet of €2 (Since it is 9/2) for a total return of €11.

Now however if you made the same €2 bet and the "No" campaign won you would not only get your initial €2 bet back but also win €11 for a total of €13 (Since 11/2).

So you will win more money now for a putting a bet down on the "No" side winning than earlier today, meaning the chances of it happening are looking less likely.

While not exactly correct maybe an easier way of putting it is according to the bookies this morning there was a 22% chance of the "No" campaign winning, while now it has dropped to a 18% chance of them winning.

Odds can fluctuate not only from predictions but also from betting patterns, so like revelman said take them with a pinch of salt.

Wrongway1985 · 25-05-2018 03:04PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Surrounded by a good few No voters here in work - I'd be in the minority here. I can see a few Midlands constituencies returning a No Vote.

Same fearful here loads unwilling to talk you can tell almost certainly went No. Ironically the kind of silence one would imagine people are forced into when having to leave their country to be looked after elsewhere.

Teyla Emmagan · 25-05-2018 03:04PM

Off I go now to vote Yes.

I am a bit worried about it, can see the 'silent' No voters coming out in force. But fingers crossed it will be carried.

Graces7 · 25-05-2018 03:06PM

Voting on the offshore islands was yesterday, to facilitate the Ballot Boxes getting to the Counting in good order.

A Garda is in attendance, in full uniform and hat.

A while ago on one such occasion, the weather closed in and we were cut off. After three days, the Garda got fed up, and waded across at low tide, ballot box held high.

We have specially trained Gardai out here.

murpho999 · 25-05-2018 03:06PM

Trasna1 wrote: »

Tonight. Rte are doing an exit poll of 3000 voters. With a sample size that large it should be pretty accurate.

We will have a very good idea of the result at 10:01 tonight

It won't be out that early. Around 23.30 on Late Late Show.

Adamocovic wrote: »

Probably been posted but first Exit Polls will be announced on the Late Late Show tonight..... leaving Ryan with the duties *shudders*

I read somehwere that David McCulloch from Prime Time is doing out.

Even so, I fail to see how Ryan Tubridy can read out a poll result badly.

BIGT4464 · 25-05-2018 03:07PM

YES

eviltwin · 25-05-2018 03:08PM

so this exit poll: how accurate will it be?

ETA the one on the LLS

seamus · 25-05-2018 03:08PM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I probably sound stupid, but I've never done a bet in my life, and I don't understand?.
What does this indicate?

Odds are weird and annoying. Reading from left to right, think of it as "€11 win for a €2 bet". Visually imagine you're making a bet with someone. You both put your money on the table - in this case the bookie puts down €11 and you put down €2. Whoever wins the bet, takes it all.

The bookie obviously doesn't want to lose money, so the greater the size of the the pay-out compared to the bet, the less likely the bookie thinks it is that you'll win.

So if a bet is 500/1, than that means you'll get €500 back for placing a €1 bet. Which means the bookie thinks it's really, really unlikely you'll win.

So when the odds move from 9/2 to 11/2 that means the bookies think that a No is becoming less likely.

Part of their model is actually "wisdom of the crowds" too. They monitor the volume of bets that people are placing, and if everyone seems to be placing their bet on the same outcome, the bookie will shorten the odds.

smokingman · 25-05-2018 03:08PM

This is illegal and I hope all the posters deliberately put beside polling stations result in prosecutions.
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Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

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