The 8th amendment referendum - part 4

erica74 · 24-05-2018 12:02PM

Pedro K wrote: »

I know a woman who was raped and never reported it. Took her years to even accept the fact that she was raped. This wasn't a case of her having consensual sex and changing her mind or anything after the fact. It was rape.

Had she become pregnant, should she have been forced to report to Gardai immediately?

Same here. I was raped when I was 19 and it took me nearly 10 years to accept that I was raped.

ArmaniJeanss · 24-05-2018 12:02PM

To followup on that for Yes to win they pretty much need a 17% swing from 1983 to 2016.
Here's 1983's map so you are talking of Yes needing to go up from 18% to 35% in the North East, 36% to 53% in Galway, 58% to 75% in Dun Laoighre area.
http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.ie/2012/08/referendum-1983-restriction-of-abortion.html

Swing won't be uniform obviously and constituencies are different to 35 years ago, but gives a rough guide as to what the 'real win' target is in each constituency.

nozzferrahhtoo · 24-05-2018 12:02PM

A radio debate from BBC Ulster on the referendum here.

seamus · 24-05-2018 12:06PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

They start counting on Saturday morning around 10am I think.
Won't be an official overall result until late in the day but the tallypeople who oversee might well be able to call it with a high degree of accuracy after about 10 minutes.
i.e.., if boxes in Dublin are coming out at just 55% Yes then it's a clear No signal, or if the boxes in Donegal are coming out at 48% Yes then it's a clear Yes signal etc. They'll be able to extrapolate the early info and calculate whether its an overall Y/N or if it's too close to call.

I enjoy the counting process, and I remember with the SSM referendum looking forward to the count. So I turned on the radio about 10:00 expecting to hear some early chatter and David Quinn was on the radio conceding defeat.

Lots of boxes get opened at the same time, so they can give really early rural/urban tallies.

I'd be very surprised if it can be called as quickly as SSM, but I think if nobody is calling it by 1pm then it's going to be tight and down to the very last box.

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

No there will be little talk about it on the actual night, until after 10pm, on tv and radio as they aren't allowed to talk during the opening hours of the referendum.

Even then I expect there'll be little talk about it, just "The polls have closed, turnout is reported to be low/ok/high" and maybe a panel discussion on what impact the tone of the campaigns have had on Irish society.

They don't really do exit polls for referendums, especially not ones where sides are so rigidly entrenched; because they find that people just lie.

It works better for general elections because people are usually less coy/shy about revealing their preferences.

Zubeneschamali · 24-05-2018 12:08PM

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

No there will be little talk about it on the actual night, until after 10pm, on tv and radio as they aren't allowed to talk during the opening hours of the referendum.

Sometimes there is an exit poll. The polling station watchers often have a good feel, too.

Edit: turnout will also be key. A big turnout n Dublin will mean a Yes. low turnout would favour No more.

None of it can be discussed until after 10 pm.

But some of the best judges of these things sit in Dáil Eireann. There is an article in the online Irish Times about yesterday in the Dail: relief from the Yes party leaders, glum faces from the rural No TDs.

seamus · 24-05-2018 12:08PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

To followup on that for Yes to win they pretty much need a 17% swing from 1983 to 2016.
Here's 1983's map so you are talking of Yes needing to go up from 18% to 35% in the North East, 36% to 53% in Galway, 58% to 75% in Dun Laoighre area.
http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.ie/2012/08/referendum-1983-restriction-of-abortion.html

Swing won't be uniform obviously and constituencies are different to 35 years ago, but gives a rough guide as to what the 'real win' target is in each constituency.

Kind of fascinating that if the FG wording had won in 1983, we wouldn't be in this conundrum.

Calina · 24-05-2018 12:11PM

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Cupcake_Crisis wrote: »

No you didn’t! You were asked how you would legislate and you can’t answer.

Do you understand how referendums particularly in the context of the 8th amendment work? I can explain it to you if you like or you can tell me what you think first. Looking forward to your explanation.

You don't.

Tomorrow's refetendum is remove the 8th amendment. It does not cover 12 weeks or any implementable legislation. It is specifically to enable the Dail to legislate.

There is a government proposal for you to consider. But voting yes tomorrow does not enact that proposal because it has to go through Dail procedure and debate. Yoh have a problem with it then you contact your TD to get amendments tabled to the proposed legislation.

Tomorrow by voting yes you provide a path to enabling the Dail to do its job. Yoo do not vote in 12 weeks. By voting you vote out everything including rape cases and FFA. You want coverage for those, you MUST vote yes. If you vote no, there will not be another referendum for half a generation.

Zubeneschamali · 24-05-2018 12:11PM

Malaya Red Sandlot wrote: »

IRonán didn't help the No vote. But please can posters stop assuming his comment on mental health reflects the views of all No voters, because it doesn't.

John Waters, well known No-to-everything figure, denies that depression exists despite obviously suffering from it.

wexie · 24-05-2018 12:14PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

John Waters, well known No-to-everything figure, denies that depression exists despite obviously suffering from it.

Really?

Seems really no limit to how dense people can be

gmisk · 24-05-2018 12:14PM

No brochure (I say brochure because it didn't look cheap!) through the door... Full of the usual rubbish... Straight in the bin... Where do they get the money from!

scamalert · 24-05-2018 12:14PM

been in ireland for almost 15 years and every day im still amazed at some stupidity that goes on in this country in most of the world this wouldn't be even a topic, but seems developed countries reached a stage where besides pushing paper they need to invent issues.

as said before repeal or not, if someone genuine wanted abortion they would be able to take flight to UK and be back before 9 to get to work in most cases.as with GPs here prob until one got to that stage they would have two kids by the time :cool::pac:

pleas advice · 24-05-2018 12:15PM

Calina wrote: »

You don't.

Tomorrow's refetendum is remove the 8th amendment. It does not cover 12 weeks or any implementable legislation. It is specifically to enable the Dail to legislate.

There is a government proposal for you to consider. But voting yes tomorrow does not enact that proposal because it has to go through Dail procedure and debate. Yoh have a problem with it then you contact your TD to get amendments tabled to the proposed legislation.

Tomorrow by voting yes you provide a path to enabling the Dail to do its job. Yoo do not vote in 12 weeks. By voting you vote out everything including rape cases and FFA. You want coverage for those, you MUST vote yes. If you vote no, there will not be another referendum for half a generation.

if the referendum passes, we are pretty much guaranteed 12 weeks unrestricted. there is no way the government would get away with anything less, there would be riots

Cupcake_Crisis · 24-05-2018 12:17PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sometimes there is an exit poll. The polling station watchers often have a good feel, too.

Edit: turnout will also be key. A big turnout n Dublin will mean a Yes. low turnout would favour No more.

None of it can be discussed until after 10 pm.

But some of the best judges of these things sit in Dáil Eireann. There is an article in the online Irish Times about yesterday in the Dail: relief from the Yes party leaders, glum faces from the rural No TDs.

Tbh, I’d be very surprised if voter turnout for this doesn’t top the SSM referendum

Calina wrote: »

You don't.

Tomorrow's refetendum is remove the 8th amendment. It does not cover 12 weeks or any implementable legislation. It is specifically to enable the Dail to legislate.

There is a government proposal for you to consider. But voting yes tomorrow does not enact that proposal because it has to go through Dail procedure and debate. Yoh have a problem with it then you contact your TD to get amendments tabled to the proposed legislation.

Tomorrow by voting yes you provide a path to enabling the Dail to do its job. Yoo do not vote in 12 weeks. By voting you vote out everything including rape cases and FFA. You want coverage for those, you MUST vote yes. If you vote no, there will not be another referendum for half a generation.

If I recall correctly I explained that, less articulately, to the poster in my first post to them. They didn’t care then either.

Stonedpilot · 24-05-2018 12:17PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

John Waters, well known No-to-everything figure, denies that depression exists despite obviously suffering from it.

Do you just make stuff up as you go along on this?. It's Getting a bit absurd now.

I got his book Relapsed Agnostic in a charity shop years ago.

He writes at length about feeling depressed in it!.

Oh he's a no voter so be must be blood related to me too!. :rolleyes:

erica74 · 24-05-2018 12:18PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

It doesn't but abortion seems traumatic too.

Well I'm a no voter but not hardcore No. I will respect the outcome of the vote either way.

One thing that has surprised me regarding pregnancy through rape.

Why not introduce legislation wherby a woman who is raped can get the morning after pill immediately once rape has been mentioned. Seems the most logical solution. All of course in strict confidence. She doesn't have to fill in forms do psychological assessments she simply states she was raped the after effects can be dealt with after and she gets her pills immediately.

The morning after pill is only effective for up to 5 days after sex.

Zubeneschamali · 24-05-2018 12:20PM

seamus wrote: »

Kind of fascinating that if the FG wording had won in 1983, we wouldn't be in this conundrum.

Yes, we've been hearing how this amendment is "too much" and an overreach, but if ever that was one of those, it was the 8th.

Abortion was already illegal, but the prolifers were so anxious to grant the unborn positive rights that they visited this travesty of law on us.

No-one is quite sure what they intended to do with those positive rights if things had gone their way, but the X case was a huge blow to them.

Stonedpilot · 24-05-2018 12:21PM

erica74 wrote: »

The morning after pill is only effective for up to 5 days after sex.

I know, hence why I said pregnant rape victims should be able to get it immediately without habaloo. No messing around.

Vlad Kelly · 24-05-2018 12:21PM

Imagine how annoyed some people would get with me, they think it should be entirely up to women and think abortion should be legal. In walks me, a man, all set to vote no! I love how annoyed these people get, CAN'T WAIT to vote no tomorrow!

Billy86 · 24-05-2018 12:22PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

Do you just make stuff up as you go along on this?. It's Getting a bit absurd now.

I got his book Relapsed Agnostic in a charity shop years ago.

He writes at length about feeling depressed in it!.

Oh he's a no voter so be must be blood related to me too!. :rolleyes:

What else would you expect? He's an utter bullsh*tter and patholigical liar.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/irish-news/anger-over-john-waters-depression-comments-30182806.html
Mr Waters said in an interview with the 'Sunday Independent' yesterday: "I don't believe in depression. There's no such thing. It's an invention. It's bulls**t. It's a cop out."

Cupcake_Crisis · 24-05-2018 12:22PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

It doesn't but abortion seems traumatic too.

Well I'm a no voter but not hardcore No. I will respect the outcome of the vote either way.

One thing that has surprised me regarding pregnancy through rape.

Why not introduce legislation wherby a woman who is raped can get the morning after pill immediately once rape has been mentioned. Seems the most logical solution. All of course in strict confidence. She doesn't have to fill in forms do psychological assessments she simply states she was raped the after effects can be dealt with after and she gets her pills immediately.

Firstly the morning after pill only works if you haven’t ovulated yet. Secondly, that’s not legislating for rape cases as anyone can access the morning after pill.

SusieBlue · 24-05-2018 12:22PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

I know, hence why I said pregnant rape victims should be able to get it immediately without habaloo. No messing around.

It also doesn’t work if you’ve already ovulated that month.
If a woman is past a certain point in her cycle, it’s useless.

gmisk · 24-05-2018 12:23PM

OK...a plane with a No message just flew over my house... You can't say they aren't throwing everything including the kitchen sink at it!

I don't think the people of ireland will be fooled.

jill_valentine · 24-05-2018 12:23PM

pleas advice wrote: »

if the referendum passes, we are pretty much guaranteed 12 weeks unrestricted. there is no way the government would get away with anything less, there would be riots

Tbh the proposed legislation is - perhaps uncharacteristically - well thought out compared to other countries. I don't think I'd riot or anything, but I would be very disappointed, it's pretty good law as it goes.

eviltwin · 24-05-2018 12:23PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

I know, hence why I said pregnant rape victims should be able to get it immediately without habaloo. No messing around.

And what if she cant get it in time or it doesn't work?

Calina · 24-05-2018 12:23PM

pleas advice wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

You don't.

Tomorrow's refetendum is remove the 8th amendment. It does not cover 12 weeks or any implementable legislation. It is specifically to enable the Dail to legislate.

There is a government proposal for you to consider. But voting yes tomorrow does not enact that proposal because it has to go through Dail procedure and debate. Yoh have a problem with it then you contact your TD to get amendments tabled to the proposed legislation.

Tomorrow by voting yes you provide a path to enabling the Dail to do its job. Yoo do not vote in 12 weeks. By voting you vote out everything including rape cases and FFA. You want coverage for those, you MUST vote yes. If you vote no, there will not be another referendum for half a generation.

if the referendum passes, we are pretty much guaranteed 12 weeks unrestricted. there is no way the government would get away with anything less, there would be riots

No you are not. You still have a chance to influence the legislation. Of course you may consider it a losing battle.

The government is unusually vulnerable.

Plus, if you want to make any change at all to the rules you must vote yes. There is no way around this.

PS what is it about the no votes projecting riots? The yes side will lobby the hell out of every government if they have to. They won't riot. At least one no activist threatened to bulldoze hospitals.

kylith · 24-05-2018 12:23PM

erica74 wrote: »

....... wrote: »

Whats the point of this?

Women get pressured now. Nothing changes if abortion is legal here only pressured women have one less stressful element - the travel.

Oh to be fair, I asked for this because he/she made a claim that "many women were pressurized into an abortion" but I must have missed it because I added him/her to my ignore list. I presumed he/she had evidence about Irish women, or at least women from the UK, obviously not.

An anti abortion group are hardly going to provide unbiased information. And a near 10 year old article from Australia. That's some "evidence".

Some women on IHS have reported being pressurised into it by abusive partners. But one of the defining things I noticed on their stories was that they felt being cut off and in a foreign country where they didn't have anyone or know their way round the city, or necessarily speak the language, meant that they didn’t feel able to say no when they got to the clinic.

Cupcake_Crisis · 24-05-2018 12:24PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

I know, hence why I said pregnant rape victims should be able to get it immediately without habaloo. No messing around.

Any woman can get it immediately. It prevents pregnancy taking place, it’s of no use to a woman who’s 6 weeks pregnant.

c68zapdsm5i1ru · 24-05-2018 12:24PM

spookwoman wrote: »

My father is the same, he can't vote unfortunately but his view is this is a woman's issue and nothing to do with men.

Well by that logic women past menopause should also not be voting. Perhaps nuns as well? Infertile women and so on. Likewise straight people should not have voted in the marriage referendum.

Any change in the constitution is a fundamental change in how our society operates, so it is an issue for everyone.

mugsymugsy · 24-05-2018 12:25PM

Vlad Kelly wrote: »

Imagine how annoyed some people would get with me, they think it should be entirely up to women and think abortion should be legal. In walks me, a man, all set to vote no! I love how annoyed these people get, CAN'T WAIT to vote no tomorrow!

Imagine if your wife or daughter or sister was suffering from a FFA and had to carry that baby to term or if they wanted an abortion they would have to travel to the UK or illegally import pills to take without medical supervision.

Remember that.

spookwoman · 24-05-2018 12:26PM

Stonedpilot wrote: »

I know, hence why I said pregnant rape victims should be able to get it immediately without habaloo. No messing around.

How if she to prove she was raped if she doesn't report it?

The 8th amendment referendum - part 4

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