Brexit discussion thread III

Am I understanding what the new position of May is after yesterday (I am looking for correction if wrong).

They have decided not to pursue the two options they had been looking at, namely NCP and Max Fac.

They will look to extend the transition period, currently agreed to 2020, to a as yet unknown date. The date of the end of the extended transition will be based on when the Max Fac technology is in place rather than a set date.

The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.

Is that the position now?

Leroy42 wrote: »

The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.

I think this is just a way for May to get around the fact that she agreed the back stop and then condemned it as unnacceptable afterwards.

She can't be seen to just buckle and accept it now, so she will bring a "different" backstop which means the same thing, and everyone will pretend she brilliantly won a tough negotiation.

This will keep her in power for another month, rather than deal with more Tory infighting.

Leroy42 wrote: »

The EU may decide that a fudge is better than the UK crashing out for the EU

Exactly. The EU won't mind handing May a "win" if the results are the same for the EU, they have openly said that they prefer to deal with May than Rees Mogg.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue?

Yes 45%
No 42%
DK 14%

I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403

But the border is related to the economic/single market so any success on the border will filter down to what you would consider a success. That is why the indications were there from the beginning that there is no way to leave the EU without destroying the GFA or the Union. That is why it makes zero sense for any party in NI to back Brexit.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Strange results, but I have to remind myself that not everyone is as obsessed with this process as I am.

Europe and Brexit are complicated. How many people do you how who are following Brexit as closely as us? Most nights it will not feature on the main evening news. Split down the middle kind of indicates the lack of in depth knowledge your average Joe has of Brexit.

It seems that as part of a Tory wave of peerages to the House of Lords to halt Brexit defeats, Willie McCrea is to don the ermine:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/18/pm-set-to-nominate-10-tory-peers-in-attempt-to-overcome-brexit-defeats

Oh man. I just can't believe she's doing this. If a normal person gets handed defeat after defeat by a non partisan, cross party upper house, they would look at why. Ramming it full of apparatchiks is just appalling. An absolute perversion worthy of mugabe or some other tin pot dictator. The only good thing is she clearly perceives the Lords rebellion as a genuine threat, rather than a grand symbolic gesture.
The media should be up in arms at this, but I suppose they need to wait til it goes through.

This appears to have passed us by, but further proof that this guy pretending (badly) to care about Irish interests, is in fact working for the Brexiteers.

He smells of desperation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/former-irish-diplomat-calls-for-backstop-demand-to-be-dropped-1.3499448?mode=amp


Bassett (remember him) wants our government/EU to stop bullying the Brits because they won't agree to the backstop........ accept that....they will.



He's promoting a pamphlet you see.



"Dr Bassett was speaking at the launch of his pamphlet Brexit and the Border: Where Ireland’s True Interests Lie, which is published by the Politeia think tank."

- which he was launching in Britain......???


"It is being used as a threat. I have met nobody in Dublin who believes that the backstop will be implemented,” he said."

- I get the impression he's not actually talking to anybody in Dublin.

Just an attention seeker.

You'd wonder do his British audience notice this at all.

An Claidheamh wrote: »

This appears to have passed us by, but further proof that this guy pretending (badly) to care about Irish interests, is in fact working for the Brexiteers.

He smells of desperation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/former-irish-diplomat-calls-for-backstop-demand-to-be-dropped-1.3499448?mode=amp


Bassett (remember him) wants our government/EU to stop bullying the Brits because they won't agree to the backstop........ accept that....they will.



He's promoting a pamphlet you see.



"Dr Bassett was speaking at the launch of his pamphlet Brexit and the Border: Where Ireland’s True Interests Lie, which is published by the Politeia think tank."

- which he was launching in Britain......???


"It is being used as a threat. I have met nobody in Dublin who believes that the backstop will be implemented,” he said."

- I get the impression he's not actually talking to anybody in Dublin.

Just an attention seeker.

You'd wonder do his British audience notice this at all.

He did an interview with Pat Kenny a few weeks back. It was quite depressing. He believed that EU were using Ireland to their own end and that ultimately we here in the republic would lose out to greater powers at play in Brussels. He's a eurosceptic, now Brexit has occurred, and former lifetimes foreign affairs employee.

He thinks brexit will destroy our economy and wants us to do a bilateral trade deal with the UK. Since we can't do so from inside the EU he thinks it's in our interests to follow them out of the common market.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly believes May has won the latest round, in terms of interpreting the backstop as a UK-wide protocol that doesn't require FoM, largely because it could drive a wedge between the Irish endgame of no trade barriers, and the EU cornerstone of the four freedoms:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/964505/?__twitter_impression=true

You would need to quote the part where he thinks the UK has won the latest round as I cannot find it. What I find is the following passages that show that the agreement reached could be read in many ways by people and there are dangers for both parties in how they approach the text of the agreement,

Why would it not be politically (or legally) acceptable to the EU?

There are several reasons. As mentioned, this is seen as the UK grabbing an unwarranted shortcut into its future trade relationship using the backstop.

Secondly, if you follow the logic of London’s interpretation of paragraph 49, the UK would also align with the rules of the single market, but without having to apply the four freedoms, or without accepting the role of the European Court of Justice - in other words, cherry-picking.

British sources point out that, if there was selective alignment on the single market it would not cover services, and that is where London sees the British economy growing.

"If you turn that protocol UK-wide, it is the ****tiest deal for the UK ever," complains one British source. "It deals with no services issues whatsoever. For the Germans, the French, the Dutch, the Irish, the Belgians, the Danes - who all have this massive goods or agri surplus with us - all of their issues get fixed in one go.

"Yet what the UK needs, in terms of its ability to grow - services - is not covered at all."

And then we have the concluding paragraph which states,

But it is a risky period. Theresa May turning the Irish Protocol UK-wide is fraught with danger, both for her own position, and in terms of how squeamish the EU and other member states are about what appears to be a dizzying, last-minute somersault.

So to me it reads that there is still some rocky patches to come with regards to the negotiations, not that the UK has "won" the last phase. I am open to be corrected though.

The main body blow for the UK in terms of Brexit is the loss of euro companies, which currently use cheap migrant euro workers in the many large processing companies. Food processing especially applies here; where east euros work longer hours for less pay. They will bail out and in turn those workers will return home as enclave communities dwindle without employment. But this may result in better outcomes for those with less skills. Companies replacing this shortfall will have to pay British workers more and offer better working conditions.

Panrich wrote: »

Tony has been close to the behind the scenes thinking and he’s hinting in that article that there are warning signs of divergence between EU and Irish interests.
The UK might have finally found the tool they were looking for to drive a wedge in to EU unity.

I do get that from the article, the EU is in a tougher positions than we thought and there are dangers ahead for them. I also read that there is potential problems for Theresa May if she does use the apparent advantage that the wording of the text in December provides her, it also put the UK at a disadvantage as it excludes services. So while in e.g. agriculture they would be in and out, services would be excluded.

As I posted if he wrote that she has won the last session as An Ciarraioch posted, I couldn't find him stating it in the article. See my last sentence in my post where I acknowledge both sides still have obstacles that they need to be wary of.

The problem that the UK face is that every time that they can solve one problem it creates further ones.

So even if they manage to wiggle out of the December agreement, either Ireland or the EU will feel cheated (based on their interpretation of what they had agreed in December) and thus will be less likely to agree to move forward. Thus Ireland or the EU can pull out of the deal.

As mentioned, they may get a deal on goods, but what about services. If Dublin feel cheated on the border are they really going to be in the UK camp to help London maintain passporting.

For a country that is looking to get a FTA with the EU and then set up multiple international trade deals across the world is it really a good idea to try to pull a fast one? And even if May pulls it off, there is no guarantee that she will be able to get the vote through parliament and thus it would have been all for nothing but left every one annoyed

Call me Al wrote: »

He did an interview with Pat Kenny a few weeks back. It was quite depressing. He believed that EU were using Ireland to their own end and that ultimately we here in the republic would lose out to greater powers at play in Brussels. He's a eurosceptic, now Brexit has occurred, and former lifetimes foreign affairs employee.

He thinks brexit will destroy our economy and wants us to do a bilateral trade deal with the UK. Since we can't do so from inside the EU he thinks it's in our interests to follow them out of the common market.

That's the thing, it's Britain's interests he is supporting ... very badly and quite obviously.

He's actually advising the British against the Irish government.
Trying to whip them up.

He's now pushing for a cakeist free trade agreement which won't happen.

When he was in the Irish media last year no one seemed to call out his nonsense, yet in Britain he claims he's a victim of the Irish establishment and plays his trade with these moronic anti-Irish British "think tanks".


Incidentally, his latest offering is already redundant.

Will be no break up of the EU, and looks like Britain are back stopping like crazy.

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem that the UK face is that every time that they can solve one problem it creates further ones.

So even if they manage to wiggle out of the December agreement, either Ireland or the EU will feel cheated (based on their interpretation of what they had agreed in December) and thus will be less likely to agree to move forward. Thus Ireland or the EU can pull out of the deal.

As mentioned, they may get a deal on goods, but what about services. If Dublin feel cheated on the border are they really going to be in the UK camp to help London maintain passporting.

For a country that is looking to get a FTA with the EU and then set up multiple international trade deals across the world is it really a good idea to try to pull a fast one? And even if May pulls it off, there is no guarantee that she will be able to get the vote through parliament and thus it would have been all for nothing but left every one annoyed

There's no way the UK are in a position to force through anything or claim the EU have signed up to something they haven't actually signed up to. Britain is in an incredibly weak position and heavily outnumbered and cannot dictate anything that happens. They're the ones looking for access to the Single Market or a free trade deal with the EU, not the other way around.

There is simply no chance for them to pull a fast one or to try and bully the EU and Ireland to give them what they want. The EU could collapse the trade talks at a moment's notice and wouldn't even need to give an explanation or excuse.