Leroy42 wrote: » Am I understanding what the new position of May is after yesterday (I am looking for correction if wrong). They have decided not to pursue the two options they had been looking at, namely NCP and Max Fac.
They will look to extend the transition period, currently agreed to 2020, to a as yet unknown date. The date of the end of the extended transition will be based on when the Max Fac technology is in place rather than a set date.
The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.
Leroy42 wrote: » The backstop, which was agreed by May in December (that the NI would stay inside the operations of the EU) is no longer agreed and May will be bringing a new backstop proposal to the June EU meeting.
Leroy42 wrote: » The EU may decide that a fudge is better than the UK crashing out for the EU
An Ciarraioch wrote: » Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue? Yes 45% No 42% DK 14% I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403
An Ciarraioch wrote: » Interesting Irish Times polling data on Brexit: Q1. Is the Government doing a good job on Brexit? Yes 39% No 33% DK 29% Q2. Is the Border the most important Brexit issue? Yes 45% No 42% DK 14% Q3. What kind of Border do you expect after Brexit? Soft 42% Hard 32% DK 26% Q4. What should the Government do if there's no progress on the Border issue? Halt talks 40% Continue 41% DK 19% I'd agree with the 42% in Q2, in that alignment of the whole UK with the single market will be the crux determining ultimate success or failure.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-divided-on-approach-to-brexit-1.3499403
J Mysterio wrote: » Strange results, but I have to remind myself that not everyone is as obsessed with this process as I am.
Brussels is likely to reject Theresa May’s plan to keep Britain tied to EU customs rules beyond 2021 because it believes the backstop clause to prevent a hard Irish border can only apply to Northern Ireland and not the whole UK. “The European commission has always understood it as applying to Northern Ireland only,” an EU source told The Telegraph, “It has always said that Northern Ireland is a unique situation”.
An Claidheamh wrote: » This appears to have passed us by, but further proof that this guy pretending (badly) to care about Irish interests, is in fact working for the Brexiteers. He smells of desperation.https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/former-irish-diplomat-calls-for-backstop-demand-to-be-dropped-1.3499448?mode=amp Bassett (remember him) wants our government/EU to stop bullying the Brits because they won't agree to the backstop........ accept that....they will. He's promoting a pamphlet you see. "Dr Bassett was speaking at the launch of his pamphlet Brexit and the Border: Where Ireland’s True Interests Lie, which is published by the Politeia think tank." - which he was launching in Britain......??? "It is being used as a threat. I have met nobody in Dublin who believes that the backstop will be implemented,” he said." - I get the impression he's not actually talking to anybody in Dublin. Just an attention seeker. You'd wonder do his British audience notice this at all.
An Ciarraioch wrote: » Tony Connelly believes May has won the latest round, in terms of interpreting the backstop as a UK-wide protocol that doesn't require FoM, largely because it could drive a wedge between the Irish endgame of no trade barriers, and the EU cornerstone of the four freedoms:https://www.rte.ie/amp/964505/?__twitter_impression=true
Why would it not be politically (or legally) acceptable to the EU? There are several reasons. As mentioned, this is seen as the UK grabbing an unwarranted shortcut into its future trade relationship using the backstop. Secondly, if you follow the logic of London’s interpretation of paragraph 49, the UK would also align with the rules of the single market, but without having to apply the four freedoms, or without accepting the role of the European Court of Justice - in other words, cherry-picking.
British sources point out that, if there was selective alignment on the single market it would not cover services, and that is where London sees the British economy growing. "If you turn that protocol UK-wide, it is the ****tiest deal for the UK ever," complains one British source. "It deals with no services issues whatsoever. For the Germans, the French, the Dutch, the Irish, the Belgians, the Danes - who all have this massive goods or agri surplus with us - all of their issues get fixed in one go. "Yet what the UK needs, in terms of its ability to grow - services - is not covered at all."
But it is a risky period. Theresa May turning the Irish Protocol UK-wide is fraught with danger, both for her own position, and in terms of how squeamish the EU and other member states are about what appears to be a dizzying, last-minute somersault.
Panrich wrote: » Tony has been close to the behind the scenes thinking and he’s hinting in that article that there are warning signs of divergence between EU and Irish interests. The UK might have finally found the tool they were looking for to drive a wedge in to EU unity.
Call me Al wrote: » He did an interview with Pat Kenny a few weeks back. It was quite depressing. He believed that EU were using Ireland to their own end and that ultimately we here in the republic would lose out to greater powers at play in Brussels. He's a eurosceptic, now Brexit has occurred, and former lifetimes foreign affairs employee. He thinks brexit will destroy our economy and wants us to do a bilateral trade deal with the UK. Since we can't do so from inside the EU he thinks it's in our interests to follow them out of the common market.
flatty wrote: » And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow. It just p1sses me off that so few oddball, venal bigots can hold the process to ransom.
Leroy42 wrote: » The problem that the UK face is that every time that they can solve one problem it creates further ones. So even if they manage to wiggle out of the December agreement, either Ireland or the EU will feel cheated (based on their interpretation of what they had agreed in December) and thus will be less likely to agree to move forward. Thus Ireland or the EU can pull out of the deal. As mentioned, they may get a deal on goods, but what about services. If Dublin feel cheated on the border are they really going to be in the UK camp to help London maintain passporting. For a country that is looking to get a FTA with the EU and then set up multiple international trade deals across the world is it really a good idea to try to pull a fast one? And even if May pulls it off, there is no guarantee that she will be able to get the vote through parliament and thus it would have been all for nothing but left every one annoyed
