8th amendment referendum part 3 - Mod note and FAQ in post #1

erica74 · 03-05-2018 10:57pm

The Legend Of Kira wrote: »

This would be the shop that you re referring to.

Yep, that's the one. And people think their campaign is funded by...?

thee glitz wrote: »

The gay marriage yes vote wasn't near 70% - there's No chance effectively legalising abortion without reason will get near that.

Who has ever had an abortion "without reason"? The whole point is that there is a reason for every abortion. Every single time a woman has an abortion, it's for a reason.

amcalester · 03-05-2018 10:57pm

If you are reported it has nothing to do with me.

Riposte to what though? That the FAQ’s were written by a mod? Hardly surprising considering the thread was opened by mod.

thee glitz · 03-05-2018 10:59pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

Whats gay marriage got to do with repealing the 8th amendment? All the polls and I mean all of them, have repeal at around 70, No at around 20 and undecideds the rest. Why wouldn't Repeal win 70 / 30.

What do you think the outcome will be

Not a whole lot at all, but you'll have your perpetually effected SJWs voting Yes, the same as for the SSM referendum. Some see this as an extension of the previous, on their crusade against any considerations or limitations.

The case for a No vote in that one was much less clear, especially given the obnoxious proposed legislation should this referendum pass.

I reckon maybe 55% No on this one. It could be higher, can't see it being lower than 45%, and thinking it will be defeated.

03-05-2018 10:59pm

There laws for a reason so mostly good, and that's coming from a smoker.

Way to dodge the question by the way, you've contriduted nothing to the debate, but getting used to that from the pro life side.

amcalester · 03-05-2018 11:06pm

I’ll leave you to it, genuinely not following what you’re complaining about and you seem more interested in arguing with posters than discussing anything related to the topic at hand.

spookwoman · 03-05-2018 11:10pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

Any idea how many people were there? And the demographic of same? Just curious

newstalk have a bit on it they recon 200 most of the no's were over 50 i'd say

Link to newstalk http://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/Newstalk_Breakfast/Highlights_from_Newstalk_Breakfast/222396/Catholic_Church_8th_Amendment_Debate_in_Waterford#.WuuGgVqwS8o

Here is a link to the debate video from 1hr the video pans to the audience so you can see the crowd. Where I was filming there were 3 rows of repeal on 1 side of the room and a few others scattered around the back. https://youtu.be/r6WolOuRcDc?t=1h1m19s near the end at about 1hr 55 you can see more

03-05-2018 11:11pm

I asked if it won't affect you personally what are the reasoning behind your stance, as it's a discussion form. Help me help you.

See the victim card has come out all ready, personally I hope your still on here when I get back tomorrow, your hilarious and as good an advert for repeal that money can't buy.

gmisk · 03-05-2018 11:15pm

thee glitz wrote: »

Not a whole lot at all, but you'll have your perpetually effected SJWs voting Yes, the same as for the SSM referendum. Some see this as an extension of the previous, on their crusade against any considerations or limitations.

The case for a No vote in that one was much less clear, especially given the obnoxious proposed legislation should this referendum pass.

I reckon maybe 55% No on this one. It could be higher, can't see it being lower than 45%, and thinking it will be defeated.

Can you clarify what you mean by "Crusade against any considerations and limitations"
Honestly have no clue.

I think for me it will be a reverse of that so maybe something like 55 yes 45 no sure we will see.

The case for No in SSM vote was pretty clear to me as a gay man... It was horrendous and demeaning to the status of gay peoples relationships, while also taking bizarre aim at non traditional families.

Jcarroll07 · 03-05-2018 11:19pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

All the polls and I mean all of them, have repeal at around 70, No at around 20 and undecideds the rest. Why wouldn't Repeal win 70 / 30.

All polls have them at 70%+ well i must have been seeing a lot of fake polls especially the ones were repeal were under 50% albeit retain was under that in or around 32%+ with massive amounts undecided and preferring not to answer. Then maybe its because I'm living rural Ireland and saw my first yes poster in the area yesterday.

It wasnt me123 · 03-05-2018 11:24pm

thee glitz wrote: »

Not a whole lot at all, but you'll have your perpetually effected SJWs .......

I reckon maybe 55% No on this one. It could be higher, can't see it being lower than 45%, and thinking it will be defeated.

What are SJWs? I haven't come across this acronym.

How can you get 55% No when no poll has them above 20%. We can all pick figures out of the air - is there a link to this No statistic of 55%.

I think repeal will win. The youth are coming out to vote Yes and alot of us never got to vote in 83 and will be voting Yes as well.

03-05-2018 11:26pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

What are SJWs? I haven't come across this acronym.

How can you get 55% No when no poll has them above 20%. We can all pick figures out of the air - is there a link to this No statistic of 55%.

I think repeal will win. The youth are coming out to vote Yes and alot of us never got to vote in 83 and will be voting Yes as well.

Social Justice Warrior

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice_warrior

gmisk · 03-05-2018 11:28pm

The most recent poll I looked at with the undecided out of it was 62 yes 38 no...
I think it will tighten over next while.
I expect yes to win but not by that margin so still lots of work to do

I think the fact the yes voters aren't generally for swaying and the fact so many young people are registering will make the difference

Jcarroll07 · 03-05-2018 11:30pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

What are SJWs? I haven't come across this acronym.

How can you get 55% No when no poll has them above 20%. We can all pick figures out of the air - is there a link to this No statistic of 55%.

I think repeal will win. The youth are coming out to vote Yes and alot of us never got to vote in 83 and will be voting Yes as well.

Repeal more likely will win but you are way way off in your predicted outcome. And its that head in the sand mentality that could be their undoing, its going to be close and repeal will then likely cary it by a large tun out and yes vote in urban areas because going by what i am hearing and seeing in the rural areas it seems likes its going to be No in most places, probably with a bit to spare at that.

It wasnt me123 · 03-05-2018 11:32pm

spookwoman wrote: »

newstalk have a bit on it they recon 200 most of the no's were over 50 i'd say

Thanks for that, I was surprised at how many young women there were there.

That said, there are 53,000 plus people in waterford and they got about 200 for this debate?

I honestly think most people have their minds made up - I dont think people are stupid - they remember Savita, Miss P etc. Repeal will pass.

How did you feel the debate went? Could you judge the feel of the room, given that there was more no voters there? just curious I live in Tipp

It wasnt me123 · 03-05-2018 11:37pm

Jcarroll07 wrote: »

All polls have them at 70%+ well i must have been seeing a lot of fake polls especially the ones were repeal were under 50% albeit retain was under that in or around 32%+ with massive amounts undecided and preferring not to answer. Then maybe its because I'm living rural Ireland and saw my first yes poster in the area yesterday.

I live in rural Ireland and I've not seen any poll with repeal under 50%. Can you direct me to it please I'd be interested in seeing the results. Was it MRBI?

We've had yes posters for about 2 weeks, certainly not as long as Dublin.

Jcarroll07 · 03-05-2018 11:37pm

gmisk wrote: »

I think the fact the yes voters aren't generally for swaying and the fact so many young people are registering will make the difference

No voters and yes voters are very unlikely to sway its all in the undecided and the and a strangely large amount of "preferring to say" which i saw in one poll. Don't know why so many went for that option could be put down to preference falsification and PF due to the nature of how PF tends to manifest in political discussions is playing a role I would see it benefiting the no side the most, but impossible to tell until the actual day.

As for the youth vote I saw some thing like 22% of 18-25 year old being unregistered I know there was a drive in the last few day especially leading up to May 8th so it will be interesting to see how much that changes.

It wasnt me123 · 03-05-2018 11:40pm

Jcarroll07 wrote: »

Repeal more likely will win but you are way way off in your predicted outcome. And its that head in the sand mentality that could be their undoing, its going to be close and repeal will then likely cary it by a large tun out and yes vote in urban areas because going by what i am hearing and seeing in the rural areas it seems likes its going to be No in most places, probably with a bit to spare at that.

Without giving your address out can you say what general rural area you are in as I'm in Tipp and I'm not seeing poll results which have the No voters anywhere near the Repeal vote.

Its not a head in the sand mentality - its all the polls I've seen. I can list them if you like but they have been on the thread so you can search for them. Can you give me the link to any poll that has the No higher than 30% so I can look for myself.

Jcarroll07 · 03-05-2018 11:41pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

I live in rural Ireland and I've not seen any poll with repeal under 50%. Can you direct me to it please I'd be interested in seeing the results. Was it MRBI?

We've had yes posters for about 2 weeks, certainly not as long as Dublin.

Well here is one for starters: Irish Daily Mail Saturday April 28th published the following poll Yes 48%(-7) , No 31% (+4), Undecided 16% (+3), Rather not say 8%(+1)

spookwoman · 03-05-2018 11:42pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

Thanks for that, I was surprised at how many young women there were there.

That said, there are 53,000 plus people in waterford and they got about 200 for this debate?

I honestly think most people have their minds made up - I dont think people are stupid - they remember Savita, Miss P etc. Repeal will pass.

How did you feel the debate went? Could you judge the feel of the room, given that there was more no voters there? just curious I live in Tipp

You could feel many of the repeal were biting there lips when Caroline Simons spoke especially when she was on about threat to a womans health and at the end especially where the woman was telling her story and the man and his son were snickering behind her was the last straw. People were just glad that was the end because while the no side were on about compassion there was little or non shown to those women who had gone through hell.
Were knew there was never going to be a fully biased chair either just gkad to see Fiona de Londras was very professional and didnt have a go at anyone in the audience
There is another on the 17 this time organised by the repeal side with peter boylan etc which should be interesting.

As i said before alot of people from repeal side didnt go due to who was holding it

03-05-2018 11:44pm

Jcarroll07 wrote: »

No voters and yes voters are very unlikely to sway its all in the undecided and the and a strangely large amount of "preferring to say" which i saw in one poll. Don't know why so many went for that option could be put down to preference falsification and PF due to the nature of how PF tends to manifest in political discussions is playing a role I would see it benefiting the no side the most, but impossible to tell until the actual day.

As for the youth vote I saw some thing like 22% of 18-25 year old being unregistered I know there was a drive in the last few day especially leading up to May 8th so it will be interesting to see how much that changes.

Already under way, my wife was in the local station tonight and twenty young girls ahead of her getting their forms, not an indication of how they will vote of course, but good to see.

Jcarroll07 · 03-05-2018 11:48pm

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

Without giving your address out can you say what general rural area you are in as I'm in Tipp and I'm not seeing poll results which have the No voters anywhere near the Repeal vote.

Its not a head in the sand mentality - its all the polls I've seen. I can list them if you like but they have been on the thread so you can search for them. Can you give me the link to any poll that has the No higher than 30% so I can look for myself.

I was not talking about poll results as they tend to be national I was talking about the general feeling and what people seem to be saying. Combined with the distinct lack of an apparent yes campaign in comparison to the No's. I have had my door knocked on three times (which is a bit much TBH) by no voters which is strange in itself as i usual never get canvassed during other referendums or during elections (probably mainly due to the fact we have five dogs running around the place). But have yet to get a knock by the yes side. In addition the posters in my immediate area that being anywhere within a 10km drive are pretty much all no, and even in the large urban area near by its very heavily bent towards the No side. Just what I have seen and been hearing and perfectly aware the best part of four weeks left to run and both sides will be getting more into it.

joseph brand · 03-05-2018 11:53pm

I hope those figures from the polls suggesting a win for the Yes side are true.

It's about time this country caught up with other advanced nations. If the No people had their archaic, fundamentalist ways, we'd be like [insert very religious, backward nation here].

Plus, we need to lose all those nosey old biddies obsessed with other people's affairs. It's none of my business if some woman out there wants an abortion. It takes some neck for people to make some stranger's business their business.

My wife and I have two healthy children, and we had no need for an abortion, thankfully. But if it did happen, I would not want my wife to have been treated like a criminal.

The 8th amendment never stopped abortions, so what would the No side gain? Some 'moral high ground'? Not even that. Most of them think the way they do because of their religion and I know there are non religious people who are anti choice.

I know I'm rambling, but I just wanted to add one more thing. There was a woman on the radio from the No posters. She has a young son. Her story was that she was in college and she got pregnant. This made her miserable and afaik she thought about abortion.

There was nothing in her story about abnormalities, rape, incest, etc. Nothing like that, just that she didn't feel like having a child. That annoyed me because it adds fuel to the stupid idea that women want to abortions just because they're not in the humour. It's a massive, life-changing choice that women make begrudgingly. Painfully.

My dad has told me that women have abortions so that they will have more money and can buy fur coats and jewelry. He regularly goes to mass.

It wasnt me123 · 03-05-2018 11:57pm

Jcarroll07 wrote: »

Well here is one for starters: Irish Daily Mail Saturday April 28th published the following poll Yes 48%(-7) , No 31% (+4), Undecided 16% (+3), Rather not say 8%(+1)

I cant find that one but thanks for the figures.

Irish Times today says Yes 47, No 28, undecideds and others 25

Journal.ie of 22nd April says Yes 47, No 29, undecideds and others 24

Red C on 26th March says Yes 56, No 26 and then the rest.

No way is the No side going to pick up 20%, just won't happen. The youth vote will push it over for the yes side and I still think it will not be as tight as some say. I'm just going by the polls

dudara · 04-05-2018 12:02am

VERY ANNOYED ADMIN POST HERE

I rarely express my displeasure so strongly, but honestly, I expect more from Boards posters.

This thread had a “new” poster causing controversy and people piled into respond. This was a clear troll and their posts and your responses meant that I spent the last 20 mins removing their shy*te and reples to their sh*yte.

I’m asking you to think critically before you reply

If it looks like a troll and quacks like a troll, then DON’T RESPOND. Report and leave to mods.

dudara

Jcarroll07 · 04-05-2018 12:13am

It wasnt me123 wrote: »

I cant find that one but thanks for the figures.

Irish Times today says Yes 47, No 28, undecideds and others 25

Journal.ie of 22nd April says Yes 47, No 29, undecideds and others 24

Red C on 26th March says Yes 56, No 26 and then the rest.

No way is the No side going to pick up 20%, just won't happen. The youth vote will push it over for the yes side and I still think it will not be as tight as some say. I'm just going by the polls

Well you need to look at the way polls in referendums, Irish ones in particular tend to break, in that there is nearly alway a break towards the no side. Very clear in the Seanad Referendum where the abolish side had 70%+ support according to many polls yet the result was as we know very different. Even the SSM referendum had support up at 80% in some, yet again there was going by poll numbers compared to actual results a massive shift towards no, essential No will always pick up quite a substantial amount of percentage points particularly when there are a large amount of undecideds its simply the way this have gone previously, but obviously i can't say that this won't be the first time that won't happen.

Irish polls when it comes to referendums tend to be very inaccurate in predicting the actual results with any degree of precision. Which is kind of strange when you consider that electoral polls tend to pretty accurate in their predictions.

On another note and I am open to correction but pretty certain I am correct in that this will be the first time a referendum proposal is passed (presuming it is) without the support of all major parties. Say this given over 50% of FF have come out against repeal and even in FG there are quite a few No campaigners. So interesting times ahead.

thee glitz · 04-05-2018 12:17am

I can see this being like both the Trump and Brexit victories - neither being favoured by the bookies, but they both won out. My feeling is that enough people will recognise that while the 8th is flawed, we can and should demand better than the alternative being offered.

04-05-2018 12:23am

thee glitz wrote: »

I can see this being like both the Trump and Brexit victories - neither being favoured by the bookies, but they both won out. My feeling is that enough people will recognise that while the 8th is flawed, we can and should demand better than the alternative being offered.

Any chance of answering my question it's been given to you twice.

Jcarroll07 · 04-05-2018 12:23am

thee glitz wrote: »

I can see this being like both the Trump and Brexit victories - neither being favoured by the bookies, but they both won out. My feeling is that enough people will recognise that while the 8th is flawed, we can and should demand better than the alternative being offered.

Certainly heard some on the no side frame it as such "kick back" and heard some on the yes say they fear that kind of mentality could come to the fore particularly outside of the Dublin area. Some piece in the IT of some "famous" writer/poet saying as much.

That said the poll numbers all pointing towards a yes but the rural display of seemingly No position when one gets on the grounds and sees the posters, is strikingly similar to some of the states where people predicted a Clinton victory but after the election said how could they not have seen it would be closer, because when they were on the ground they saw nearly all the houses and areas were displaying Trump signs in far greater numbers then they should have been according to the data.

thee glitz · 04-05-2018 12:29am

erica74 wrote: »

Who has ever had an abortion "without reason"? The whole point is that there is a reason for every abortion. Every single time a woman has an abortion, it's for a reason.

A reason - yes, but that doesn't mean a good reason. What I meant was that no reason would be required to be given, no justification. Selfishness in a matter of life or death may well be the reason, and that's just fine according to what would be introduced, not that it would need to be declared.

_Dara_ · 04-05-2018 12:32am

thee glitz wrote: »

I can see this being like both the Trump and Brexit victories - neither being favoured by the bookies, but they both won out. My feeling is that enough people will recognise that while the 8th is flawed, we can and should demand better than the alternative being offered.

Maybe but I think any comparison to those elections is shallow. It jumps off the tongue but what basis is there really for thinking that this will be the same? And towards the end, Brexit was predicted to be very close. Which it was. People forget that.

8th amendment referendum part 3 - Mod note and FAQ in post #1

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