May 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

MTC ____ 12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 __ 21.8

Table of forecasts May 2018

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 1-10

200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
_____________________________________________________________

Con Sensus remains same with 24 forecasts now ... there were enough similar
forecasts that the additional one didn't really shift the values.

... our group seems to favour a warm, dry and sunny May, let's hope this proves accurate.

The max for Sunday was 23.0 at PP (22.0 on Saturday) and that's going to lock in the bonus scoring even if a warmer temperature shows up in the next few days which seems unlikely.

Our warmest forecasts of 22.5 (200motels, Dasa29) as well as 22.3 from BLIZZARD7 will get ten (not three MTC) points.

Nine points for waterways (22.1), Rikand and JPmarn (22.0).

Scoring in pairs below that unless ties create different outcomes, so that means ...

8 pts _ Lumi and M.T. Cranium (21.8)

7 pts _ Rameire and MrSkinner (21.5)

6 pts _ DOCARCH 21.1, Pauldry and JCXBXC at 21.0, also Con and NormaL 21.0

5 pts _ Dacogawa 20.9

4 pts _ Tae laidir and John mac 20.8

3 pts _ sryanbruen, Artane2002, Kindredspirit and sunflower3 all 20.5

1 pts _ Bsal (20.1), Joe Public (19.9), mickger844posts (19.8)

0 pts _ sdanseo (17.8)

=================================================

In terms of 23.0 being the monthly MAX, that would suit two very well (kindredspirit and sdanseo) and it is already above the MAX predictions of four others. I will be back tomorrow with the first week stats.

After the first week ...

IMT on 11.5 which is 1.3 above normal for the period.

MAX 23.0 and MIN 0.8 (1st Mountdillon) unless anyone spotted anything colder.

PRC was 72% of normal.

SUN 80% of normal (477/600), the two Dublin area locations were above average but other parts of the country with sunshine recorders were quite cloudy during the warm spell (Shannon in between at 94%).

The models (as Pauldry suggests) show a cooler trend at times although I don't see anything very much below normal, just a lot of days between 9 and 12 for mean temperatures, average amounts of rain and sunshine suggested (perhaps a bit cloudy overall) and hints of a warm spell developing towards the end of the run (which is the 24th). So the IMT will probably drift down now and at some point may be as low as 10.5 or so, but it could then recover back into the 11's in the part of May we don't see yet (on the GFS at least).

After three weeks ...

IMT at 10.9(4) with the past week at 11.4, exactly normal for that period.

No changes to previous MAX (23.0) or MIN (-1.2).

PRC at 95% with this past week at 99%, the east and south (Cork east) were generally dry, the west and north were generally wet (some near 200% almost all in the last two days).

SUN also at 95% with this past week at 92% (553/600).

Looking at model trends, the IMT seems likely to rise slowly to end of month values near 12.0; MAX may improve to something around 25, but MIN seems unlikely to change; PRC will drop to around 80% and SUN could improve to about 105%.

IMT on 11.3 after 25 days, each day that is warm (IMT around 15-16) will add 0.2 to that. It is possible for the IMT to get to our warmest forecasts of 12.4, we shall see. I also expect a higher MAX on Monday or Tuesday, marginally at least.

Report after four weeks ...

Unfortunately, Mullingar has missing data for 28th, I estimate that the IMT is around 11.8 and this past week about 14.5 which is 2.5 or so above average. With these very warm last three days, the IMT will finish close to 12.3.

MAX climbed to 24.6 on Monday and will likely climb again today as several locations have 25 C at 3 p.m. (and Shannon 26 at 4 p.m. so we know it has to be above 25.5 now). Later reported to be 26.3 C.

MIN remains --1.2 C.

PRC once again estimating Mullingar was only 27% for the week, and most of it fell at Cork which was above normal due to Sunday's torrential downpours in thunderstorms. Everyone else in the grid had almost nothing and based on daily reports I assigned 10% to Mullingar. This drops the monthly PRC to 78% and it could fall as low as 70% if scattered showers the final three days miss the eleven station grid, but we'll say 75% as an estimate for now.

SUN was 150% of normal (902/600) and this boosts the month to 109% with each sunny day pushing that up another 2-3% so we are likely to finish near 115%.

I will edit in some scoring estimates in a minute (can't see the table of forecasts so need to post and check).

==============================================

These would be the scores if the MAX gets to our highest forecast of 26.0 ... and all the other estimates above verified, plus the already established bonus points. I have left the table in order of forecasts. Some of these numbers could change, we don't yet know the exact MAX.

MAX scoring whatever the MAX will go from modified minimum progression -- modified because it appears possible that some forecast will get 19 or 20 points raw score. Modified means you only get half the boost you would otherwise get. It could go to the full boost if nobody has that good a raw score. For this to happen, 26.2 or higher will be needed now.


FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ____ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 12.3_26.0_-1.2_075_115 __ 23.0

200motels _____________ 24 _ 19*_ 19 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 84
M.T. Cranium ___________24 _ 15*_ 20 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 _______ 86
Joe Public ______________24 _ 08*_ 14 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 01 _______ 61
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 25 _ 17*_ 19 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 94
DOCARCH ______________24 _ 06*_ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 06 _______ 70
waterways _____________ 23 _ 18*_ 17 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 09 _______ 77
sryanbruen _____________23 _ 08*_ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 74
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 22 _ 19*_ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 87-12 =75
Pauldry ________________22 _ 16*_ 18 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 76
JCXBXC _______________ 21 _ 18*_ 13 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 77
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 21 _ 13*_ 19 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 79-2 = 77
Dacogawa _____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 05 _______ 63

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 71

Bsal ___________________21 _ 01*_ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 01 _______ 56
sdanseo _______________ 20 _ 05*_ 16 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 00 _______ 57
Rameire _______________ 19 _ 11*_ 17 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 76
MrSkinner ______________19 _ 08*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 69
Artane2002 ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 19 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 03 _______ 59
Dasa29 ________________18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 04 _ 06 ___ 10 _______ 54
Tae laidir ______________ 18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 04 _______ 61
Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 66
Sunflower3 _____________18 _ 03*_ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 57
mickger844posts ________ 18 _ 03*_ 18 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 01 _______ 54
Jpmarn ________________17 _ 08*_ 16 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 _______ 68

Normal ________________13 _ 13*_ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 63

John mac ______________ 12 _ 14*_ 18 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 04 _______ 63
_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
_____________________________________________________________

That is some of the highest scoring I can remember from the past seven years but remember, it's based on estimates that could change (if there were to be some more widespread downpours or a different MAX). (scores are now adjusted for 26.3 MAX)

These scores will be revisited at the end of the month. Not too shabby with an estimate of 94 for BLIZZARD7 and Rikand still has a very respectable score after losing 12 on a late penalty. Due to the use of minimum progression, MAX scores are not likely to change very much if we go with a different leader. (at this point the MAX scores are probably final).

It just dawned on me that May will not last forever, so here's a link to June's contest:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=107136202#post107136202

IMT stays on 12.3 from 12.34 ... so scoring on that remains the same

MAX 26.3 will keep scoring although will give two closest 20 instead of 19

MIN -1.2 same

PRC works out to 72%, most scores lose 1 point, a couple gain one point.

SUN still looks to be 115%, will need to check the MS for that.

This slightly alters the previously posted scoring table to the following (now in order) ...

Provisional scoring for May, 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ____ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 12.3_26.3_-1.2_072_115 __ 23.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 25 _ 17*_ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 93
M.T. Cranium ___________24 _ 15*_ 20 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 _______ 87
200motels _____________ 24 _ 20*_ 19 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 84
waterways _____________ 23 _ 18*_ 17 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 09 _______ 77
JCXBXC _______________ 21 _ 18*_ 13 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 76
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 21 _ 13*_ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 78-2 = 76
sryanbruen _____________23 _ 08*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 75
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 22 _ 20*_ 18 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 87-12 =75
Pauldry ________________22 _ 16*_ 18 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 75
Rameire _______________ 19 _ 11*_ 17 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 75

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 70

DOCARCH ______________24 _ 06*_ 17 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 06 _______ 69
MrSkinner ______________19 _ 08*_ 19 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 68
Jpmarn ________________17 _ 08*_ 16 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 09 _______ 67
Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 65
Dacogawa ______________21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 04 _ 07 ___ 05 _______ 62
John mac ______________ 12 _ 14*_ 18 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 04 _______ 62

Normal ________________13 _ 13*_ 17 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 62

Joe Public ______________24 _ 08*_ 14 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 01 _______ 60
Tae laidir ______________ 18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 04 _______ 60
Artane2002 ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 19 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 03 _______ 58
sdanseo _______________ 20 _ 05*_ 16 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 00 _______ 56
Sunflower3 _____________18 _ 03*_ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 56
Bsal __________________ 21 _ 01*_ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 01 _______ 55
Dasa29 ________________18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 10 _______ 53
mickger844posts ________ 18 _ 03*_ 18 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 01 _______ 53
_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
_____________________________________________________________

Congrats to BLIZZARD7 for an exceptionally high score and 200motels (and MTC) did quite well also. The chase pack in the 70s will hold on to their positions in the annual table which will be added to the thread later. Generally one of the higher scoring months we have seen even though Con and NormaL did not score unusually high.

These scores could change slightly if the MS indicates a need to change the sunshine estimate or any other parameters.