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May 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-04-2018 7:27am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value for May is 11.1 C. (max 25 points)

    2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during May. (max 20 points)

    3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

    4. Predict the PRC in May (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) for May as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

    6. For a BONUS question (10 points), what will be the MAX after the first ten days? This is an attempt to get a forecast for the highest reading in what looks like a slight warm spell around the first weekend of May (and it may be very slight). The verification period is 1-10 May.

    The usual late penalties will apply after 0300h Tuesday 1st of May. Good luck!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _________ 11.8 __ 23.0 __ -1.6 __ 094 __ 098 __ 17.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 12.1 __ 24.0 __ -1.0 __ 70 __ 120 __ 20.5

    I'm going in boys. :D

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,859 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _________ 11.7 __ 22.9 __ -1.3 __ 110 __ 117 __ 20.5

    Sryan, I'd love if your prediction verifies!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry _________ 12 __ 25 __ -1__ 100 __ 100__ 21

    No decimal this month for the craic


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels___________12.4 __ 26 __ -1.1__ 108 __ 107__ 22.5


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _________ 11.9 __ 22.0 __ -0.8 __ 95 __ 110 __ 20.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC _________ 11.9 __ 25.8 __ -0.5__ 90 __ 110 __ 21

    I'm expecting a nice warm spell near the end of the month to verify my max :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac _________ 11.0 __ 24.6 __ -1.4 __ 098__ 103 __ 20.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _________ 12.4 __ 23.9 __ -1.8 __ 99__ 99 __ 19.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _________ 11.6 __ 23.5 __ -0.5 __ 110__ 95 __ 22.5


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _________ 11.6 __ 22.5 __ -1.4 __ 094 __ 090 __ 19.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 12.1_25.7_--1.5_119_116___ 22.1 (06/05/ MT Dillon)


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______11.7______24_____-1.1______98______111_______21.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _________ 11.9 __ 23.6 __ -1.1 __ 105 __ 98 __ 20.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 11.6 ___ 23.0 ___ -1.1 ___ 80 ___ 105 ___ 20.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_________ 11.5 __ 24 __ -0.8 __ 90__ 105 __ 22


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _________ 11.7 __ 24.4 __ -0.9 __ 80 __ 110 __ 21.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3_________ 11.6__ 22.5 __ -0.8__ 95 __ 110__ 20.5


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,107 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH______12.2__23.6__-0.9__98__115__21.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC ____ 12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 __ 21.8


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7____ 12.3 _ 25.7_ -1.3 _ 075_ 125 __ 22.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 11.6 ___ 23.4 ___ -0.3 ___ 78 ___ 110 ___ 20.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    pauldry wrote: »
    Pauldry _________ 12 __ 25 __ -1__ 100 __ 100__ 21

    No decimal this month for the craic

    You're an integral part of this contest. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi ____ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 88 _ 100 __ 21.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    pauldry wrote: »
    Pauldry _________ 12 __ 25 __ -1__ 100 __ 100__ 21

    No decimal this month for the craic


    No point!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts May 2018

    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 1-10

    200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
    M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
    Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
    BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
    DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
    waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
    sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
    rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
    Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
    JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
    Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
    Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

    Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

    Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
    sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
    Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
    MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
    Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
    Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
    Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
    Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
    Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
    mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
    Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

    Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

    John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
    _____________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus remains same with 24 forecasts now ... there were enough similar
    forecasts that the additional one didn't really shift the values.

    ... our group seems to favour a warm, dry and sunny May, let's hope this proves accurate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Oh Crap! I forgot all about it :(

    If its not too late

    Rikand ___ 12.0 ___ 26.0 ____ -1.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 22.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Phoenix park station reported 22c at 1500 today. Potential for Max temperature and this months bonus question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Tomorrow could hit 23c if sea fog stays away


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The max for Sunday was 23.0 at PP (22.0 on Saturday) and that's going to lock in the bonus scoring even if a warmer temperature shows up in the next few days which seems unlikely.

    Our warmest forecasts of 22.5 (200motels, Dasa29) as well as 22.3 from BLIZZARD7 will get ten (not three MTC) points.

    Nine points for waterways (22.1), Rikand and JPmarn (22.0).

    Scoring in pairs below that unless ties create different outcomes, so that means ...

    8 pts _ Lumi and M.T. Cranium (21.8)

    7 pts _ Rameire and MrSkinner (21.5)

    6 pts _ DOCARCH 21.1, Pauldry and JCXBXC at 21.0, also Con and NormaL 21.0

    5 pts _ Dacogawa 20.9

    4 pts _ Tae laidir and John mac 20.8

    3 pts _ sryanbruen, Artane2002, Kindredspirit and sunflower3 all 20.5

    1 pts _ Bsal (20.1), Joe Public (19.9), mickger844posts (19.8)

    0 pts _ sdanseo (17.8)

    =================================================

    In terms of 23.0 being the monthly MAX, that would suit two very well (kindredspirit and sdanseo) and it is already above the MAX predictions of four others. I will be back tomorrow with the first week stats.


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