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Do you think property will crash again?

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    #182
    izzyflusky
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭izzyflusky


    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.

    When mortgage repayments are way less than rent, despite the high prices of protperties, I don't think it is a mistake. And that without taking into a count the lack of places available to rent in certain areas and the ("no pets no children signs). So if you are a family there is not a hope.

    My parents bought in Ireland just before the property crashed. Everyone commented on their mistake, but NOW they can see it was their only option. They couldn't have bought after that. Also, today their mortgage payment is at least half of a rented house in the area. If yoy are buying a HOME and not an investment, within your means, I don't see the problem.


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    #183
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.

    If we are in for a ten years cycle of near full employment and even moderate economic growth, I don’t see any crash coming.

    If the economy crashes, then yes property prices will follow suite.

    Thing is it’s very hard to predict as there are many factors influencing this including some which involve a lot more than just what happens in Ireland.


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    #184
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.


    have you any evidence of this going to happen?


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    #185
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Bob24 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.

    If we are in for a ten years cycle of near full employment and even moderate economic growth, I don’t see any crash coming.

    If the economy crashes, then yes property prices will follow suite.

    Thing is it’s very hard to predict as there are many factors influencing this including some which involve a lot more than just what happens in Ireland.

    I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.


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    #186
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    smurgen wrote: »
    I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.

    Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy.

    But would correction on the stock market cause a big economic crisis? I don’t know.


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    #187
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Bob24 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.

    Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy.

    But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.

    I'm not looking down my nose at anyone looking to buy a house or anything i'm just giving my outlook on the potential pitfalls.


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    #188
    Andrew Beef
    Registered Users Posts: 754 ✭✭✭Andrew Beef


    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.

    Insane advice in my view.

    Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.


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    #189
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Andrew Beef wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.

    Insane advice in my view.

    Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.

    How is that insane? Where will the money come from to buy these precious commodities if real wages are cut in the future?if the mulinationals cut production here less people will live and work here and supply will meet demand as people leave.


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    #190
    Didactic Ninja
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 393 ✭✭Didactic Ninja


    I’d also add. The longer we hang on to see if prices dip or to see if we will emigrate or stick around, we are running out of years to pay back any potential mortgage we eventually do or don’t take out.
    I’m 33 now but don’t envisage buying at these prices in the next 5 years or so. Then I am touching 40.
    This is not how society is geared up to be (or how I imagine we should want it to be).
    My generation should be housed and knocking out kids to pay future pensions etc. Among my peer group I don’t see it. I haven’t been to a christening or a wedding or a house warming this side of 2010.

    Women have a biological clock for children.

    Irish 30 somethings have a “mortgage clock” that is ticking too and in this Irish housing musical chairs you need to find somewhere to sit before the music stops .

    But all the seats are covered in piss and we have to pay 50 Euro to sit on them


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    #191
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    smurgen wrote: »
    I'm not looking down my nose at anyone looking to buy a house or anything i'm just giving my outlook on the potential pitfalls.

    Yes fair enough. I guess might point is that calling it a massive mistake very one sided.

    Yes there is a risk related to the economy. But saying it is a massive mistake to buy in the next 3 years implies the global economy will crash pretty much for sure - and while I don’t discard the option of a crash I don’t see any argument to say it’s coming with a very high certainty in the next 3 years.


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    #192
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Didactic Ninja wrote: »
    I’d also add. The longer we hang on to see if prices dip or to see if we will emigrate or stick around, we are running out of years to pay back any potential mortgage we eventually do or don’t take out.
    I’m 33 now but don’t envisage buying at these prices in the next 5 years or so. Then I am touching 40.
    This is not how society is geared up to be (or how I imagine we should want it to be).
    My generation should be housed and knocking out kids to pay future pensions etc. Among my peer group I don’t see it. I haven’t been to a christening or a wedding or a house warming this side of 2010.

    Women have a biological clock for children.

    Irish 30 somethings have a “mortgage clock” that is ticking too and in this Irish housing musical chairs you need to find somewhere to sit before the music stops .

    But all the seats are covered in piss and we have to pay 50 Euro to sit on them

    Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage.


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    #193
    CruelCoin
    Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭CruelCoin


    I hope not.

    My house went from 105k to 215k in 3 years flat.


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    #194
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage.


    I think you will be waiting a long time the demand is the critical factor here. There is a ravonous demand out there now more so than the boom years.. Add in the price of renting in most cases is now more than a mortgage repayment. Cant see prices dropping for at least 10 if not 20 years (if there is a drop)


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    #195
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    fliball123 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage.


    I think you will be waiting a long time the demand is the critical factor here. There is a ravonous demand out there now more so than the boom years.. Add in the price of renting in most cases is now more than a mortgage repayment. Cant see prices dropping for at least 10 if not 20 years (if there is a drop)

    If the arse falls out of the economy you can walk away from your rental.factor in the lifetime value of a mortgage and i don't see the risk outweighing the benefit currently.the total cost of a house and mortgage is out of line with wages as it stands.if wages are cut in the next few years that makes it even worse.it's no skin off my nose but i'm happy to pay over the odds for rent if it means i'm not facing negative equity and mortgage default in a few years.seems to me like people are hoping for a bubble to inflate and drowning out any counter views.


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    #196
    johnp001
    Registered Users Posts: 658 ✭✭✭johnp001


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy.

    But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.

    It seems like the global economy is in a state of unstable equilibrium between high stock prices and low interest rates.
    As long as money can be borrowed at ultra-low rates to invest in stocks then the increase in stock prices can pay the interest on the borrowed money so the cycle can continue.
    If either the interest rates go up or the stocks stop appreciating the spell is broken and stock prices fall while interest rates rise and the effect goes into reverse.
    If interest rates rise then the price of commodities commonly bought using credit fall and that is where the price of houses could be affected. Its hard to know what the reaction to another credit crunch would be though, if the monetary policy used in reaction to it brought significant inflation would the nominal price of property actually fall at all in euro terms?


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    #197
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Irelands economy is strongly correlated to international stock markets.we're had 5 years as the fastest growing economy in europe and this has been on the back of record growth levels of U.S companies.we do not have strong enough indugenous businesses to weather the next financial crisis. There are faults appearing in international markets.


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    #198
    Arthur Daley
    Registered Users Posts: 4,459 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    smurgen wrote: »
    Irelands economy is strongly correlated to international stock markets.we're had 5 years as the fastest growing economy in europe and this has been on the back of record growth levels of U.S companies.we do not have strong enough indugenous businesses to weather the next financial crisis. There are faults appearing in international markets.

    Because of this factor, the unwind will probably be very quick and brutal. When it actually comes is a guessing game. But this can't go on like this for 5 more years in my view anyway. Rents are insane.


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    #199
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,164 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Andrew Beef wrote: »
    Insane advice in my view.

    Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.

    It happens from time to time in the economic cycle. Higher interest rates will cause a drop in prices, net emigration may also cause a fall in prices.


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    #200
    ionapaul
    Registered Users Posts: 5,295 ✭✭✭ionapaul


    If there is a big enough global or localised economic crisis to send prices in reverse, surely the only people to really profit will be those ready to buy in cash, and cash they don't want to hold on to to insulate themselves from the possibility of losing their jobs or taxes being hiked, etc...? Because expecting to get the same mortgage that you can today in a few years in the middle of an economic crisis (if you still have a job) surely is wishful thinking? Typically if the economy blows up, the amount of credit in the system shrinks as banks go into bunker-down mode, interest rates and taxes spike again, and people then complain that they can't get mortgages while the house prices are nice and low!

    2012 would have been a wonderful time to buy a house if you had €1m in cash burning a hole in your pocket :D


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    #201
    fret_wimp2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭fret_wimp2


    Geuze wrote: »
    Yes, median earnings around 40-42k.

    CSO don't publish median, so that data is from Eurostat SES.


    Eurostat says Mean ireland earings per annum (for 2014) is 48k. that seems like quite a big difference from the CSO number of 37k


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    #202
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    smurgen wrote: »
    If the arse falls out of the economy you can walk away from your rental.factor in the lifetime value of a mortgage and i don't see the risk outweighing the benefit currently.the total cost of a house and mortgage is out of line with wages as it stands.if wages are cut in the next few years that makes it even worse.it's no skin off my nose but i'm happy to pay over the odds for rent if it means i'm not facing negative equity and mortgage default in a few years.seems to me like people are hoping for a bubble to inflate and drowning out any counter views.

    And if the arse doesnt you will continue to pay more in rent then a mortgage and not own anything when you retire. Rent is also out of line with wage. But then again there is a myriad of places on earth where a mortgage/rent is out of line with wage its not just Dublin or the outskirts. Every argument you have can be negated all factors point to wages going up. Its already started in the public sector.

    I am not telling you or anyone to buy or sell or rent. All I am saying is all the factors I see and I outlined about 10 a few pages back that point to house prices rising for at least another 10 years if not longer.


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    #203
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    It happens from time to time in the economic cycle. Higher interest rates will cause a drop in prices, net emigration may also cause a fall in prices.


    We are currently getting more immigrants in then leaving


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    #204
    UsBus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    Didactic Ninja wrote: »

    Things are so bad that a simple relationship breakdown can see you lose everything ( even outside a marriage) . You breakup with you missus and you are back in your mothers spare room or couch surfing .

    Irish society is designed to "couple up". you are ****ed if you are on your own.

    This sums me up, split with my missus last year. I was looking at buying a house for us for the next stage of my life. Now I'm 40 and sharing with two 20 somethings. No chance of buying now. Things are getting steadily worse in Ireland.

    Right now I plan on pissing away what little savings I have made over the next year or two and then it's check out time for me..No point fighting a losing battle here anymore. This country would depress you as you get older.


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    #205
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    fliball123 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    If the arse falls out of the economy you can walk away from your rental.factor in the lifetime value of a mortgage and i don't see the risk outweighing the benefit currently.the total cost of a house and mortgage is out of line with wages as it stands.if wages are cut in the next few years that makes it even worse.it's no skin off my nose but i'm happy to pay over the odds for rent if it means i'm not facing negative equity and mortgage default in a few years.seems to me like people are hoping for a bubble to inflate and drowning out any counter views.

    And if the arse doesnt you will continue to pay more in rent then a mortgage and not own anything when you retire. Rent is also out of line with wage. But then again there is a myriad of places on earth where a mortgage/rent is out of line with wage its not just Dublin or the outskirts. Every argument you have can be negated all factors point to wages going up. Its already started in the public sector.

    I am not telling you or anyone to buy or sell or rent. All I am saying is all the factors I see and I outlined about 10 a few pages back that point to house prices rising for at least another 10 years if not longer.

    Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank?


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    #206
    SNNUS
    Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭SNNUS


    UsBus wrote: »
    This sums me up, split with my missus last year. I was looking at buying a house for us for the next stage of my life. Now I'm 40 and sharing with two 20 somethings. No chance of buying now. Things are getting steadily worse in Ireland.

    Right now I plan on pissing away what little savings I have made over the next year or two and then it's check out time for me..No point fighting a losing battle here anymore. This country would depress you as you get older.


    So hard to get a place on your own. The good time to buy is when you can buy. Speculate for too long like I did and my 30's flew by..


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    #207
    theboringfox
    Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    UsBus wrote: »
    This sums me up, split with my missus last year. I was looking at buying a house for us for the next stage of my life. Now I'm 40 and sharing with two 20 somethings. No chance of buying now. Things are getting steadily worse in Ireland.

    Right now I plan on pissing away what little savings I have made over the next year or two and then it's check out time for me..No point fighting a losing battle here anymore. This country would depress you as you get older.

    That sounds rough. Sorry to hear it. Hope things work out in end for you.


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    #208
    tommythecat
    Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭tommythecat


    smurgen wrote: »
    Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank?

    And go where? You are going to have to pay rent somewhere? And if you think rents will plummet in larger cities like Dublin if the economy collapses then you are deluding yourself. They only came down slightly following the last crash. Rent/Mortgage, you are always going to have to pay one of them. Might as well be a mortgage if it suits your needs. If you pay a good cash sum off your mortgage at the start then the risk of negative equity will be minimal.

    4kwp South East facing PV System. 5.3kwh Weco battery. South Dublin City.



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    #209
    4ensic15
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,691 ✭✭✭4ensic15


    fliball123 wrote: »
    We are currently getting more immigrants in then leaving

    Things can, and do, change!


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    #210
    space_tourist
    Site Banned Posts: 9 ✭space_tourist


    smurgen wrote: »
    I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.

    only one equity market globally ( im talking major markets ) is over valued or even has had a very strong run and thats the u.s market

    japans stock market today is still about 60% below where it was in 1989
    most european markets are not much higher than they were in about the year 2000 , germany is the one exception , the irish stock market is still at least 20% below its 2007 all time high

    people can convince themselves of impending doom

    australia has had non stop property price increases for twenty five years straight , our crash here was incredibly large and we overshot the bottom , increases may significantly moderate but there is no inherent reason to believe we have another crash like the last one , we may not have one like it again for centuries , it was that big !


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    #211
    space_tourist
    Site Banned Posts: 9 ✭space_tourist


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy.

    But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.

    stock market bear markets happen far more often than sever property market downturns or crashes


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