smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.
Bob24 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness. If we are in for a ten years cycle of near full employment and even moderate economic growth, I don’t see any crash coming. If the economy crashes, then yes property prices will follow suite. Thing is it’s very hard to predict as there are many factors influencing this including some which involve a lot more than just what happens in Ireland.
smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.
Bob24 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate. Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy. But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.
Andrew Beef wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness. Insane advice in my view. Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.
smurgen wrote: » I'm not looking down my nose at anyone looking to buy a house or anything i'm just giving my outlook on the potential pitfalls.
Didactic Ninja wrote: » I’d also add. The longer we hang on to see if prices dip or to see if we will emigrate or stick around, we are running out of years to pay back any potential mortgage we eventually do or don’t take out. I’m 33 now but don’t envisage buying at these prices in the next 5 years or so. Then I am touching 40. This is not how society is geared up to be (or how I imagine we should want it to be). My generation should be housed and knocking out kids to pay future pensions etc. Among my peer group I don’t see it. I haven’t been to a christening or a wedding or a house warming this side of 2010. Women have a biological clock for children. Irish 30 somethings have a “mortgage clock” that is ticking too and in this Irish housing musical chairs you need to find somewhere to sit before the music stops . But all the seats are covered in piss and we have to pay 50 Euro to sit on them
smurgen wrote: » Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage.
fliball123 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage. I think you will be waiting a long time the demand is the critical factor here. There is a ravonous demand out there now more so than the boom years.. Add in the price of renting in most cases is now more than a mortgage repayment. Cant see prices dropping for at least 10 if not 20 years (if there is a drop)
Bob24 wrote: » Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy. But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.
smurgen wrote: » Irelands economy is strongly correlated to international stock markets.we're had 5 years as the fastest growing economy in europe and this has been on the back of record growth levels of U.S companies.we do not have strong enough indugenous businesses to weather the next financial crisis. There are faults appearing in international markets.
Andrew Beef wrote: » Insane advice in my view. Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.
Geuze wrote: » Yes, median earnings around 40-42k. CSO don't publish median, so that data is from Eurostat SES.
smurgen wrote: » If the arse falls out of the economy you can walk away from your rental.factor in the lifetime value of a mortgage and i don't see the risk outweighing the benefit currently.the total cost of a house and mortgage is out of line with wages as it stands.if wages are cut in the next few years that makes it even worse.it's no skin off my nose but i'm happy to pay over the odds for rent if it means i'm not facing negative equity and mortgage default in a few years.seems to me like people are hoping for a bubble to inflate and drowning out any counter views.
Claw Hammer wrote: » It happens from time to time in the economic cycle. Higher interest rates will cause a drop in prices, net emigration may also cause a fall in prices.
Didactic Ninja wrote: » Things are so bad that a simple relationship breakdown can see you lose everything ( even outside a marriage) . You breakup with you missus and you are back in your mothers spare room or couch surfing . Irish society is designed to "couple up". you are ****ed if you are on your own.
fliball123 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » If the arse falls out of the economy you can walk away from your rental.factor in the lifetime value of a mortgage and i don't see the risk outweighing the benefit currently.the total cost of a house and mortgage is out of line with wages as it stands.if wages are cut in the next few years that makes it even worse.it's no skin off my nose but i'm happy to pay over the odds for rent if it means i'm not facing negative equity and mortgage default in a few years.seems to me like people are hoping for a bubble to inflate and drowning out any counter views. And if the arse doesnt you will continue to pay more in rent then a mortgage and not own anything when you retire. Rent is also out of line with wage. But then again there is a myriad of places on earth where a mortgage/rent is out of line with wage its not just Dublin or the outskirts. Every argument you have can be negated all factors point to wages going up. Its already started in the public sector. I am not telling you or anyone to buy or sell or rent. All I am saying is all the factors I see and I outlined about 10 a few pages back that point to house prices rising for at least another 10 years if not longer.
UsBus wrote: » This sums me up, split with my missus last year. I was looking at buying a house for us for the next stage of my life. Now I'm 40 and sharing with two 20 somethings. No chance of buying now. Things are getting steadily worse in Ireland. Right now I plan on pissing away what little savings I have made over the next year or two and then it's check out time for me..No point fighting a losing battle here anymore. This country would depress you as you get older.
smurgen wrote: » Rent is out of line but you can correct that by leaving your rental property.where is the pressure release valve on a house?post the keys to the bank?
fliball123 wrote: » We are currently getting more immigrants in then leaving
