Andrew Beef wrote: » Insane advice in my view. Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.
smurgen wrote: » Irelands economy is strongly correlated to international stock markets.we're had 5 years as the fastest growing economy in europe and this has been on the back of record growth levels of U.S companies.we do not have strong enough indugenous businesses to weather the next financial crisis. There are faults appearing in international markets.
Bob24 wrote: » Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy. But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.
fliball123 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage. I think you will be waiting a long time the demand is the critical factor here. There is a ravonous demand out there now more so than the boom years.. Add in the price of renting in most cases is now more than a mortgage repayment. Cant see prices dropping for at least 10 if not 20 years (if there is a drop)
smurgen wrote: » Yeah but if you work out the total cost of a mortgage and the cost of a house it makes for sobering reading.buying in at the wrong time is worse than buying in late.i'd rather save where possible and enter the market at a later stage with a reduced mortgage.
Didactic Ninja wrote: » I’d also add. The longer we hang on to see if prices dip or to see if we will emigrate or stick around, we are running out of years to pay back any potential mortgage we eventually do or don’t take out. I’m 33 now but don’t envisage buying at these prices in the next 5 years or so. Then I am touching 40. This is not how society is geared up to be (or how I imagine we should want it to be). My generation should be housed and knocking out kids to pay future pensions etc. Among my peer group I don’t see it. I haven’t been to a christening or a wedding or a house warming this side of 2010. Women have a biological clock for children. Irish 30 somethings have a “mortgage clock” that is ticking too and in this Irish housing musical chairs you need to find somewhere to sit before the music stops . But all the seats are covered in piss and we have to pay 50 Euro to sit on them
smurgen wrote: » I'm not looking down my nose at anyone looking to buy a house or anything i'm just giving my outlook on the potential pitfalls.
Andrew Beef wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness. Insane advice in my view. Your basic argument is that the price of the thing that there’s not enough of and which loads of people want will collapse.
smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness.
Bob24 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate. Yes socks are overvalued and yes ireland if very dependant in the state of the global economy. But would correction on the stock market cause a bit economic crisis? I don’t know.
smurgen wrote: » I personally believe the world in general is in for an economic adjustment.i believe equities and the stock market in general are over valued currently and that the likes of facebook and google are in for a cut in value in the next 3 years or so.this will mean tightening of the belts in many of the multinationals in ireland and like have a knock on effect on the sustainablility of workers paying massive mortages and rents. Anyone thinking Ireland is insulated from economic crashes now or has learned any lessons from the last crash are living in cuckoo land. I have the ability to buy now but have chosen not to.i belive renting is more expensive now but i do not fancy getting up to my neck in debt given an uncertain future wage rate.
Bob24 wrote: » smurgen wrote: » I think anyone buying in the next 3 years or so is making a massive mistake.property prices are in for a crash and saddling up with a big mortgage is just madness. If we are in for a ten years cycle of near full employment and even moderate economic growth, I don’t see any crash coming. If the economy crashes, then yes property prices will follow suite. Thing is it’s very hard to predict as there are many factors influencing this including some which involve a lot more than just what happens in Ireland.
Skedaddle wrote: » There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is. It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp. .... They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. .... ....
Skedaddle wrote: » There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is. It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp. Incidentally, most cities of that scale on the continent have very good public transportation, some even have full metros. The way that people talk on some of these threads you'd think it was reasonable to compare Dublin with megacities like London, Paris, New York etc. It's a pretty small city with totally inadequate housing stock to meet an economic boom. This is driven by a dysfunctional banking system that's not healthy enough to fund development, developers who are still not over the 2008 crash and a planning system that's created endless problems over the decades. We are still basically nursing debts from the last crash which is in large part why the supply hasn't been on stream and is being slow to come back. Also the housing stock is totally inappropriate to meet the demand. We have a situation where there are very few apartments suitable for single people in particular which results in thousands of young professionals having to share accomodation in family homes. That's pushing those of reach of families while still providing poor accommodation. If you think about it, instead of a host accomodating a family, in a lot of cases in Dublin it's accomodating maybe 4 or even 6 ( might be two couples and two singles) adults on good incomes. It's actually fairly unusual (and very unattractive) to have to house share beyond student days, but it's the norm in Dublin. It means not having your own bathrooms, cooking facilities and having limited privacy. I think a lot of the properties in Dublin are only meeting the insane rents by people sharing. I've never seen anywhere with such an amount of doubling and tripling up. It's one reason I know quite a few Continental professionals in IT who've packed up after a year and gone to Berlin and elsewhere. Dublin (and even Cork) has very inadequate accommodation. If you look at cities like Brussels and Antwerp, a couple or even a single person on a reasonable income can expect to be able to live on their own in a pretty nice apartment, within the city and suburbs (not 79km away) and not be at the pin of their collar. You're not going to be able to afford a mansion, but you'll have your pick of nice, comfortable, reasonably-sized apartments in most suburban areas as will have a good quality of life. You'll also find plenty of long lease options and unfurnished apartments that you can make your home. They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. People actually start building up their own furnishings in their 20s as they move onwards and upwards they just bring them with them. That's not an unreasonable or unusual expectation. It's also a big part of what defines quality of life. Failure to address this issue or pretending that it's a normal state of affairs is a major part of why Dublin doesn't rank well as a livable city. What's the point of working hard if it's just running on a hamster wheel to live in what amounts to a hovel? Or commuting 79km to a small city? It makes no sense and it's what's going to limit Dublin and Ireland's growth potential. I find the Irish market is really creating a very odd mess of sharing and nearly locking people into student like living standards for way too long. I know single professionals with good jobs in Dublin still sharing in their late 30s and even 40s. They've no a prospects of any better as their industries don't pay the wage levels that will afford more. Also in Ireland if you're not married or living with your partner, it's a complete nightmare to find decent housing in the cities as a single adult. Unless you're on a very good income, you really might as well emigrate. There's very, very little in the way of suitable housing. Most of the French people I know who move here for IT jobs see Ireland as a place to break into an industry, then leave. That's because of three factors: 1. Housing. 2. Health - mostly anyone I know who has experienced the HSE via the A&E system or has had a serious medical issue and has had to a wait months just re-evaluates remaining here and goes back to France or Germany etc. I know a lot of continental Europeans and there really is horror at the state or the Irish health system. It's barely developed world standards in terms of access to services, yet it's very well funded. Again: bad planning/management just like housing. It operates as one endless crisis with everyone running around in circles chasing their tails. How the hell we have created this mess is beyond me. It's literally unbelievably bad. 3. Pensions. A lot of people I've spoken to see Ireland and also Britian as places to start a career but not places to continue it or retire in. There are concerns about pension provision, regulation of funds, poor state services etc. That's not good for our economy as we're only getting people to stay for a few years at most. Fix those 3 and you've one of the world's best places to live. Don't fix them and you will always be second tier.
Arthur Daley wrote: » ... So are some here suggesting average property prices can keep growing for another what 10-15 years? What will the average house cost then? 1 million euros? Who is going to pay it? Wages are being capped in an awful lot of places, even today. The increase in supply of labour has suppressed wages at many levels. Automation and AI will put hundreds of thousands out of work within the next 30 years according to the plans being rolled out of places like Davos. ...
Wanderer78 wrote: » I suspect our banks are not as well protected as we think, and the next economic crisis will be more so effected from external factors than the last time, I think we maybe becoming complacent regarding these issues
Wanderer78 wrote: » Past economic cycles are no guarantee for current economic trends and possible future economic busts, such is the complexity of these cycles, but I do understand your logic. I suspect our banks are not as well protected as we think, and the next economic crisis will be more so effected from external factors than the last time, I think we maybe becoming complacent regarding these issues
fliball123 wrote: true but if you look at the last cycle is started back in the early 90s and finished in 2011/12 about 20 years from start to finish or from bust - boom - bust
fliball123 wrote: This time the fundamentals are better, the banks are more protected and the supply/demand ratio is a hell of a lot more skewed on the demand side.
Bob24 wrote: » Because some people commute there doesn’t change the fact that it is 5 times the population density. We are not going to have a land shortage anytime soon. (a real issue though is the poor use of this land in Dublin with a lot of unused land due to improper zoning or speculation, and the urge for every person to have a house with a garden which means very low popularion density for a capital city)
fliball123 wrote: » That is just one of the factors but just to throw a thorn in your theoy Belgium is almost land locked with countries surrounding it and I have a friend who is living in Eischweiler Germany (forgive the spelling) who commutes to work in Liege in Belgium.
Bob24 wrote: » To European standards we have very low population density. If a lack of land was a major cause of concern for us, most European countries would already have civil wars because of it (but Belgium which is 5 times more densely populated than Ireland has cheaper housing).
