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Do you think property will crash again?
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Mickiemcfist wrote: »A better figure to use would be median rather than average, I feel the median would be lower than 50k
Yes, median earnings around 40-42k.
CSO don't publish median, so that data is from Eurostat SES.0 -
Yes, median earnings around 40-42k.
CSO don't publish median, so that data is from Eurostat SES.
Would love to see a breakdown of Dublin vs rest of the country on this. If you have a couple both earning in and around the above they won’t be buying much in Dublin, throw a child in to the mix and it’s game over entirely.
You’d get a really nice place in most other areas of the country with that kind of income.0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »A better figure to use would be median rather than average, I feel the median would be lower than 50k
Yes median will already be lower wit these figures. I do data analytics and a few years ago I had access to salary figures for a company of around 800 staff as HR wanted some stuff done with that. The average was around 80-85k so stoping there you would have thought people in that company are getting paid very well. But looking at the median salary it was more 40-45k. Still ok but a far cry from the average story ... which simply meant that a couple of execs on very high salary level were bumping up the average but that in reality most of the staff was nowhere near that average (a large chunk was distributer around the median value).
Same would likely apply if you compare average and median if Dublin.0 -
Andrew Beef wrote: »No they didn’t. I’ve more news for you; it’s never the cream who leaves.
If our brightest stayed in the 80s,then pray tell how we ended up like we did?(obviously not the brightest would put us in the red/broke/housing crisis/homelessness/inept governments last 30 plus years) ok R maybe you're brighter than me ,and I just don't get it?0 -
Andrew Beef wrote: »We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.
They'll definitely be dead ducks then,,,,, Mullingar,,,think if volunteer for mars first0 -
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There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is.
It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp.
Incidentally, most cities of that scale on the continent have very good public transportation, some even have full metros.
The way that people talk on some of these threads you'd think it was reasonable to compare Dublin with megacities like London, Paris, New York etc.
It's a pretty small city with totally inadequate housing stock to meet an economic boom. This is driven by a dysfunctional banking system that's not healthy enough to fund development, developers who are still not over the 2008 crash and a planning system that's created endless problems over the decades.
We are still basically nursing debts from the last crash which is in large part why the supply hasn't been on stream and is being slow to come back.
Also the housing stock is totally inappropriate to meet the demand. We have a situation where there are very few apartments suitable for single people in particular which results in thousands of young professionals having to share accomodation in family homes. That's pushing those of reach of families while still providing poor accommodation. If you think about it, instead of a host accomodating a family, in a lot of cases in Dublin it's accomodating maybe 4 or even 6 ( might be two couples and two singles) adults on good incomes.
It's actually fairly unusual (and very unattractive) to have to house share beyond student days, but it's the norm in Dublin. It means not having your own bathrooms, cooking facilities and having limited privacy.
I think a lot of the properties in Dublin are only meeting the insane rents by people sharing. I've never seen anywhere with such an amount of doubling and tripling up.
It's one reason I know quite a few Continental professionals in IT who've packed up after a year and gone to Berlin and elsewhere. Dublin (and even Cork) has very inadequate accommodation.
If you look at cities like Brussels and Antwerp, a couple or even a single person on a reasonable income can expect to be able to live on their own in a pretty nice apartment, within the city and suburbs (not 79km away) and not be at the pin of their collar. You're not going to be able to afford a mansion, but you'll have your pick of nice, comfortable, reasonably-sized apartments in most suburban areas as will have a good quality of life. You'll also find plenty of long lease options and unfurnished apartments that you can make your home. They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. People actually start building up their own furnishings in their 20s as they move onwards and upwards they just bring them with them.
That's not an unreasonable or unusual expectation. It's also a big part of what defines quality of life.
Failure to address this issue or pretending that it's a normal state of affairs is a major part of why Dublin doesn't rank well as a livable city.
What's the point of working hard if it's just running on a hamster wheel to live in what amounts to a hovel? Or commuting 79km to a small city? It makes no sense and it's what's going to limit Dublin and Ireland's growth potential.
I find the Irish market is really creating a very odd mess of sharing and nearly locking people into student like living standards for way too long. I know single professionals with good jobs in Dublin still sharing in their late 30s and even 40s. They've no a prospects of any better as their industries don't pay the wage levels that will afford more.
Also in Ireland if you're not married or living with your partner, it's a complete nightmare to find decent housing in the cities as a single adult. Unless you're on a very good income, you really might as well emigrate. There's very, very little in the way of suitable housing.
Most of the French people I know who move here for IT jobs see Ireland as a place to break into an industry, then leave. That's because of three factors:
1. Housing.
2. Health - mostly anyone I know who has experienced the HSE via the A&E system or has had a serious medical issue and has had to a wait months just re-evaluates remaining here and goes back to France or Germany etc. I know a lot of continental Europeans and there really is horror at the state or the Irish health system. It's barely developed world standards in terms of access to services, yet it's very well funded. Again: bad planning/management just like housing. It operates as one endless crisis with everyone running around in circles chasing their tails. How the hell we have created this mess is beyond me. It's literally unbelievably bad.
3. Pensions. A lot of people I've spoken to see Ireland and also Britian as places to start a career but not places to continue it or retire in. There are concerns about pension provision, regulation of funds, poor state services etc.
That's not good for our economy as we're only getting people to stay for a few years at most.
Fix those 3 and you've one of the world's best places to live. Don't fix them and you will always be second tier.0 -
Andrew Beef wrote: »All I see are people ranting “there’s gonna be a crash!” without any basis for thinking it.
You asked if new houses prices in the 350 - 400 range is reasonable. This equates to 8+ times median industrial wage. Is this sustainable?
There's never a clear sign post as to what will cause the next crash. It may not be the same causes as last time but there's alot of other possible triggers to a crash:-
trade wars,
actual wars,
Brexit,
US policy on US multinationals,
EU tax policy,
ramp up in building,
sell off of house portfolios by vulture funds,
end of tax exemption minimum holding period,
poor standard of living in Dublin giving rise to an exodus
Stock market sell off
Climate change effects
Interest rate increases
Government policy to reduce the cost of houses (reduce tax element, bureaucracy with planning, land costs)
Printing techniques or other technological advances
Etc
Personally I doubt the property market will crash any time soon but I'm not foolish enough to dismiss the possibility given all of the above possibilities. The key issue for me at this point is whether / how prices can be sustained given wage levels.0 -
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The two biggest clear threats are
1. Brexit - mostly due to a potential UK self inflicted economic crisis.
2. Trump causing a trade war (already fired first shots at the EU last week) or radically impacting US multinationals with big bases here (already has changed tax structure in the USA.)
Domestic factors aren't as big a risk now as the banks are much more conservative. I think we're on a cash and rental bubble at the moment. Not quite so much a credit one as there's no stats to support that. Lending isn't exactly generous. So it's clearly a demand exceeding fairly mediocre supply issue.
You've also got to ask how big is the market at the moment?
I've a feeling we are looking at a small bubble in a fairly restricted market that isn't systemic. 2008 was more of a seriously busy market that went bang very hard.
A crash now might be much more limited and non systemic but it would still burn a lot of recent buyers.0 -
mortimer33 wrote: »Well Ireland is a small open economy that has a large young mobile workforce. Dublin in particular has a huge number of non-Irish living/working. if the economy suffers due to any number of external factors they won't be staying for the weather.
they might stay for the social welfare.0 -
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Andrew Beef wrote: »a
€50k a year is a modest salary.
There is a certain salary apartheid developing.
There will be an ever shrinking subset of people who think €50k is "modest" and there will be the 90% majority who have to subsist as a wage slave on €25k and maybe at some stage, much later in their career, €35k, but not much beyond that.
Those on a " modest" salary will find life expensive enough with houses costing half a mill upwards, cars costing €50k, education getting ever more expensive and finally having to fork out €3k a month for a care home.
Those on realistic salaries will forever be gutted like kippers with rent (to them a house will be as affordable as a solid gold Zeppelin), higher insurance (being forced to drive cheaper 2nd hand cars) and education and care for their elderly will wipe out any savings they have made.
The companies hiring them love this, because a desperate workforce is one that doesn't have stupid ideas above their station.
And the multi national firms buying up property left right and center get to squeeze them from the other side.
That way you can calculate their existence down to the last penny.
And the ones on a "modest" salary will look down their noses on them, because, surely everyone can make it? We are being sold the American Dream. Those who don't make it are stupid and/or lazy and deserve to be where they are. Helping them will reinforce their stupidity and/or laziness, so they don't deserve help.0 -
Well as I heard Jeremy Corbyn say recently: it's called 'the struggle' for a reason.dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »The companies hiring them love this, because a desperate workforce is one that doesn't have stupid ideas above their station.
And the multi national firms buying up property left right and center get to squeeze them from the other side.
That way you can calculate their existence down to the last penny.
The dominant factor at play in recent years for me has been the population increase. Especially in Dublin. This has put pressure on housing and kept wage rates suppressed. Varadker says there will be another million added over the next 15 to 20 years so this trend continues.0 -
That's always been there. It's effectively what defines the working class vs the middle class
The problem in Ireland and in the USA is that for self worth reasons, a lot of people who are in working class categories when you look at their disposable income and purchasing power are describing themselves as middle class but are actually working class.
We (in tandem with the other similarly neoliberal ideological countries like the UK and US) are regressing towards an Edwardian society again in some respects. In Ireland's case it's mostly that we are not dealing with the reality that housing is too expensive and wages are too low to afford it. That's creating a whole section of society that lives hand to mouth.
Maybe Irish people simply are so downtrodden by centuries of an engrained class system that they just accept that? I can't think of any period in Irish history when an aspect of this society hasn't been in grinding poverty. It seems to just be accepted as normal.
Two tier health is another example of it. If you've a lower income you're supposed to just suffer.
I've a relative in her 80s who spent the last two years barely able to get around because of lack of access to simple cataract treatment. She finally got an appointment to be seen nearly two and a half years after the point she wasn't able to even see the TV!
Yet, if she'd a few more quid she could have just gone private.
We had to buy (in cash) cataract treatments for my grandmother a few years ago as she was waiting forever and was at risk of an accident.
It's an increasingly horrible place to live if you're not well off.
If you can't afford to house yourself in a reasonable way, you're poor. It's a simple as that. Even if you're on a decent wage, the system isn't setup to make it possible to live on the wage you're earning.
The other point here is that there's a lot of services for those who are unemployable but if you're just on a low or medium wage, you're just on the hamster wheel going around and around and never being safe or comfortable. We've a whole layer not basically "working poor". People who work hard but are rewarded with wages only barely put a roof over their heads and dinner on the table. That is not a good quality of life and it's a reflection of a society that has no aspirations to make it somewhere that everyone has a decent chance to live and decent life in.
It's also why you're seeing things like blue collar workers voting for Trump or for Brexit or Marine Le Pen. It's where Ireland could suddenly flip to too eventually.0 -
There are few if any cities of Dublin's size (around 1 million) where a 72.9km commute would be considered normal. That's how far Mullingar is.
It's the 39th largest metropolitan area in the EU up there with Lille, Helsinki, Glasgow and Antwerp.
Incidentally, most cities of that scale on the continent have very good public transportation, some even have full metros.
The way that people talk on some of these threads you'd think it was reasonable to compare Dublin with megacities like London, Paris, New York etc.
It's a pretty small city with totally inadequate housing stock to meet an economic boom. This is driven by a dysfunctional banking system that's not healthy enough to fund development, developers who are still not over the 2008 crash and a planning system that's created endless problems over the decades.
We are still basically nursing debts from the last crash which is in large part why the supply hasn't been on stream and is being slow to come back.
Also the housing stock is totally inappropriate to meet the demand. We have a situation where there are very few apartments suitable for single people in particular which results in thousands of young professionals having to share accomodation in family homes. That's pushing those of reach of families while still providing poor accommodation. If you think about it, instead of a host accomodating a family, in a lot of cases in Dublin it's accomodating maybe 4 or even 6 ( might be two couples and two singles) adults on good incomes.
It's actually fairly unusual (and very unattractive) to have to house share beyond student days, but it's the norm in Dublin. It means not having your own bathrooms, cooking facilities and having limited privacy.
I think a lot of the properties in Dublin are only meeting the insane rents by people sharing. I've never seen anywhere with such an amount of doubling and tripling up.
It's one reason I know quite a few Continental professionals in IT who've packed up after a year and gone to Berlin and elsewhere. Dublin (and even Cork) has very inadequate accommodation.
If you look at cities like Brussels and Antwerp, a couple or even a single person on a reasonable income can expect to be able to live on their own in a pretty nice apartment, within the city and suburbs (not 79km away) and not be at the pin of their collar. You're not going to be able to afford a mansion, but you'll have your pick of nice, comfortable, reasonably-sized apartments in most suburban areas as will have a good quality of life. You'll also find plenty of long lease options and unfurnished apartments that you can make your home. They're not full of landlord furniture and cheap appliances someone found while dumpster diving or in some ultra cheap shop that does landlord specials. People actually start building up their own furnishings in their 20s as they move onwards and upwards they just bring them with them.
That's not an unreasonable or unusual expectation. It's also a big part of what defines quality of life.
Failure to address this issue or pretending that it's a normal state of affairs is a major part of why Dublin doesn't rank well as a livable city.
What's the point of working hard if it's just running on a hamster wheel to live in what amounts to a hovel? Or commuting 79km to a small city? It makes no sense and it's what's going to limit Dublin and Ireland's growth potential.
I find the Irish market is really creating a very odd mess of sharing and nearly locking people into student like living standards for way too long. I know single professionals with good jobs in Dublin still sharing in their late 30s and even 40s. They've no a prospects of any better as their industries don't pay the wage levels that will afford more.
Also in Ireland if you're not married or living with your partner, it's a complete nightmare to find decent housing in the cities as a single adult. Unless you're on a very good income, you really might as well emigrate. There's very, very little in the way of suitable housing.
Most of the French people I know who move here for IT jobs see Ireland as a place to break into an industry, then leave. That's because of three factors:
1. Housing.
2. Health - mostly anyone I know who has experienced the HSE via the A&E system or has had a serious medical issue and has had to a wait months just re-evaluates remaining here and goes back to France or Germany etc. I know a lot of continental Europeans and there really is horror at the state or the Irish health system. It's barely developed world standards in terms of access to services, yet it's very well funded. Again: bad planning/management just like housing. It operates as one endless crisis with everyone running around in circles chasing their tails. How the hell we have created this mess is beyond me. It's literally unbelievably bad.
3. Pensions. A lot of people I've spoken to see Ireland and also Britian as places to start a career but not places to continue it or retire in. There are concerns about pension provision, regulation of funds, poor state services etc.
That's not good for our economy as we're only getting people to stay for a few years at most.
Fix those 3 and you've one of the world's best places to live. Don't fix them and you will always be second tier.
Just have to reply to this to say very well said, you are 100% correct.
I work in IT and over the last 3 years EVERY single one of the non-national IT engineers we have hired have resigned and returned to their original country. While I don't know each of their specific reasons, I know at least some of it is due to the housing issue. Our european colleagues are baffled at not being able to get accomodation in Dublin that is so readily available (and the norm) in most EU cities. They are baffled at having to either share a room in a house with 2 or 3 others in the suburbs or having to pay enormous amounts of money for a 12 month lease in a less than ideal apartment.
I'm searching for a 2 bed place at the moment with my girlfriend in north dublin but last nights search turned up 1 (yes ONE) place within our budget (1500pm) in a fairly wide area. It's absolutely crazy how the market is at the moment. Where she is from (a city in Germany smaller than Dublin) good quality apartments are readily available and 800pm would get you a really nice place, with all bills included, and an indefinite lease.
I just can't believe Ireland (esp Dublin) has gotten the way it has with regards accomodation. We need thousands more one and two apartments in and near the city ASAP.0 -
The two issue I keep hearing are :
1. Housing (All of the above)
Or
2. An encounter with an Irish A&E due to an illness or accident. I know one French person and two Germans who quit jobs and packed up and went home after bad experiences with healthcare here - all involving excruciatingly long waits in A&E or poor quality of access to treatment. They quite literally didn't feel safe
I also know a French person who has flown home to go to the doctor, with quite serious symptoms.
They're the two factors making Ireland seem very unattractive.
Also yeah, that's absolutely experience comparing Brussels and Antwerp and also mid sized French cities with Dublin and also Cork!
High end houses in Brussels and Antwerp are similarly priced to Dublin, but there's a vast array of affordable housing like really pleasant 1 and 2 bedroom large apartments and even beautiful historical apartments if you're willing to look around a bit, for about half what you'd pay for a total hovel in Dublin.
It's a completely unrealistic market and I think it's being normalised as acceptable, possibly based on comparison to London or something.
Varadkar and Co simply aren't doing enough. It's a broken system.
It also is a pyramid. The lack of suitable apartments is pushing demand into an area should be modest family homes. So that's pushing low income families into homelessness or very very unrealistic commutes as they're competing with 4, 5 and 6 young professionals on good money for a family home. It's that revenue that's driving the speculative investors who are squeezing out low and middle income families.
If it grinds on and on, it will eventually have a political impact and that's when Ireland's Trump or Brexit moment of public anger will come. It may not be a right wing stupidly targeted snap, but it will be a snapback. Of that I'm sure!
I would also stress that if you push people out of the cities too far they risk unemployment and underemployment due to inability to reach a range of jobs. That's really, really had for the economy too. So the idea that you can just decant Dublin into Athlone makes no sense either.
Also you can't just assume this is normal and keep propping up speculators with stupid policies.0 -
The two issue I keep hearing are :
1. Housing (All of the above)
Or
2. An encounter with an Irish A&E due to an illness or accident. I know one French person and two Germans who quit jobs and packed up and went home after bad experiences with healthcare here - all involving excruciatingly long waits in A&E or poor quality of access to treatment. They quite literally didn't feel safe
I also know a French person who has flown home to go to the doctor, with quite serious symptoms.
They're the two factors making Ireland seem very unattractive.
Also yeah, that's absolutely experience comparing Brussels and Antwerp and also mid sized French cities with Dublin and also Cork!
High end houses in Brussels and Antwerp are similarly priced to Dublin, but there's a vast array of affordable housing like really pleasant 1 and 2 bedroom large apartments and even beautiful historical apartments if you're willing to look around a bit, for about half what you'd pay for a total hovel in Dublin.
It's a completely unrealistic market and I think it's being normalised as acceptable, possibly based on comparison to London or something.
Varadkar and Co simply aren't doing enough. It's a broken system.
It also is a pyramid. The lack of suitable apartments is pushing demand into an area should be modest family homes. So that's pushing low income families into homelessness or very very unrealistic commutes as they're competing with 4, 5 and 6 young professionals on good money for a family home. It's that revenue that's driving the speculative investors who are squeezing out low and middle income families.
If it grinds on and on, it will eventually have a political impact and that's when Ireland's Trump or Brexit moment of public anger will come. It may not be a right wing stupidly targeted snap, but it will be a snapback. Of that I'm sure!
I would also stress that if you push people out of the cities too far they risk unemployment and underemployment due to inability to reach a range of jobs. That's really, really had for the economy too. So the idea that you can just decant Dublin into Athlone makes no sense either.
Also you can't just assume this is normal and keep propping up speculators with stupid policies.
Or it's broken due to all the stupid policies because successive governments have done too much rather than too little. Without all the intervention it could never have got this broken.
Belief that just a few more policies will finally fix it is the triumph of hope over experience0 -
Or it's broken due to all the stupid policies because successive governments have done too much rather than too little. Without all the intervention it could never have got this broken.
Belief that just a few more policies will finally fix it is the triumph of hope over experience
It's been both. The interventions they have made are usually useless or counterproductive, yet they're not intervening in where they should be - like shaking out held up landbanks and derelict properties in Dublin.
The biggest intervention they could make is properly planning and developing areas in a sane way around good public transit networks. They're doing none of that. It's all reactionary retrofitting of public transit 40 years after the houses are built. Look at what public transit has gone in: they electrified an existing 19th century heavy rail line, put a tram on an abandoned Victorian suburban rail line (green line) and ran a single tram lines to Tallaght and spent the last 30 years patting themselves on the back?!?
A lot of the conservation interventions are also absolutely stupid. They should preserve historic buildings and significant areas but a lot of what I see is just people trying to claim that some ugly, utilitarian 19th century building is worth protecting, or that somehow all tall buildings are bad.
You'd solve Dublin's housing crisis with a lot of attarctibe, mid-height development (6 floors) in fill and some high quality, signature piece towers in designated areas.
Maybe Dublin should be looking at actually designing a 21st century skyline, not trying to preserve this imagined skyline that it doesn't have. It's a flat, largely featureless city with a few historic areas and a lot of bland Victorian and early 20th century stuff that's of little relevance. You can also work with existing buildings to enhance areas with new development.
At times here I think it's like we are seeing a living city as a museum that should be frozen in time.
You could also enhance and repopulate areas of the city centre that are very dead and run down at present.
Also I would strongly suggest that it would make sense to become a lot more aggressive about taxing derelict sites in the city. Nothing should be incentivising people to sit on those. They are urgently needed.
Also getting inappropriately used sites cleared - surface car parks, warehousing, low rise bad quality buildings etc etc. There are plenty of those sitting around.
The other big one might be longer term but move Dublin port. There's absolutely no logic in having a huge port facility sitiing in the middle of a 21st century city.
Even Cork is 30 years ahead of Dublin on this and is moving it's docklands to an ultra modern port Ringaskiddy and opening a huge, prime area for high-rise redevelopment.
I just think sometimes Dublin has no vision.
I'm hoping this move towards executive mayors in Dublin and Cork helps and isn't just kicked down the road indefinitely.
Our local authority system doesn't work very well.0 -
It's been both. The interventions they have made are usually useless or counterproductive, yet they're not intervening in where they should be - like shaking out held up landbanks and derelict properties in Dublin.
The biggest intervention they could make is properly planning and developing areas in a sane way around good public transit networks. They're doing none of that. It's all reactionary retrofitting of public transit 40 years after the houses are built.
A lot of the conservation interventions are also absolutely stupid. They should preserve historic buildings and significant areas but a lot of what I see is just people trying to claim that some ugly, utilitarian 19th century building is worth protecting, or that somehow all tall buildings are bad.
You'd solve Dublin's housing crisis with a lot of attarctibe, mid-height development (6 floors) in fill and some high quality, signature piece towers in designated areas.
Maybe Dublin should be looking at actually designing a 21st century skyline, not trying to preserve this imagined skyline that it doesn't have. It's a flat, largely featureless city with a few historic areas and a lot of bland Victorian and early 20th century stuff that's of little relevance. You can also work with existing buildings to enhance areas with new development.
At times here I think it's like we are seeing a living city as a museum that should be frozen in time.
You could also enhance and repopulate areas of the city centre that are very dead and run down at present.
Also I would strongly suggest that it would make sense to become a lot more aggressive about taxing derelict sites in the city. Nothing should be incentivising people to sit on those. They are urgently needed.
Also getting inappropriately used sites cleared - surface car parks, warehousing, low rise bad quality buildings etc etc. There are plenty of those sitting around.
The other big one might be longer term but move Dublin port. There's absolutely no logic in having a huge port facility sitiing in the middle of a 21st century city.
Even Cork is 30 years ahead of Dublin on this and is moving it's docklands to an ultra modern port Ringaskiddy and opening a huge, prime area for high-rise redevelopment.
I just think sometimes Dublin has no vision.
I'm hoping this move towards executive mayors in Dublin and Cork helps and isn't just kicked down the road indefinitely.
Our local authority system doesn't work very well.
No doubt that things could be better in a lot of areas, I don't believe central planning is ever going to effectively achieve it though. Every further intervention has the potential to create unintended consequences as interested parties act to circumvent the new regulations. For example the held up land banks are a product of past interventions.0 -
Skedaddle, 'increasing worker insecurity' is seen as being 'good' for the economy, I largely agree with all that you say, this has been well written about for many years now, and I do suspect more and more are waking up to the fact that something is fundamentally wrong with this thinking. Unfortunately I don't think the masses are there yet at realising it's danger to all, leading me to believe, it may take a couple of more serious economic crashes before true change happens.0
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Well there's notions about what "flexibility" is. There's a happy medium somewhere between French inflexibility and Irish and British undermining of any kind of stability of employment.
If you look around some of the Nordic countries and NL, you've largely for that happy medium - a secure flexibility, yet still very high economic output per hour worked.
We need to be setting out benchmarks and horizons a lot higher than the UK model.0 -
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vikas.kshatriya wrote: »Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)
If a hard brexit happens with no well established trade deal, we'll lose our biggest trading partner, exports will drop & businesses here will suffer & lay off staff/cut salaries etc.0 -
It's been both. The interventions they have made are usually useless or counterproductive, yet they're not intervening in where they should be - like shaking out held up landbanks and derelict properties in Dublin.
The biggest intervention they could make is properly planning and developing areas in a sane way around good public transit networks. They're doing none of that. It's all reactionary retrofitting of public transit 40 years after the houses are built. Look at what public transit has gone in: they electrified an existing 19th century heavy rail line, put a tram on an abandoned Victorian suburban rail line (green line) and ran a single tram lines to Tallaght and spent the last 30 years patting themselves on the back?!?
A lot of the conservation interventions are also absolutely stupid. They should preserve historic buildings and significant areas but a lot of what I see is just people trying to claim that some ugly, utilitarian 19th century building is worth protecting, or that somehow all tall buildings are bad.
You'd solve Dublin's housing crisis with a lot of attarctibe, mid-height development (6 floors) in fill and some high quality, signature piece towers in designated areas.
Maybe Dublin should be looking at actually designing a 21st century skyline, not trying to preserve this imagined skyline that it doesn't have. It's a flat, largely featureless city with a few historic areas and a lot of bland Victorian and early 20th century stuff that's of little relevance. You can also work with existing buildings to enhance areas with new development.
At times here I think it's like we are seeing a living city as a museum that should be frozen in time.
You could also enhance and repopulate areas of the city centre that are very dead and run down at present.
Also I would strongly suggest that it would make sense to become a lot more aggressive about taxing derelict sites in the city. Nothing should be incentivising people to sit on those. They are urgently needed.
Also getting inappropriately used sites cleared - surface car parks, warehousing, low rise bad quality buildings etc etc. There are plenty of those sitting around.
The other big one might be longer term but move Dublin port. There's absolutely no logic in having a huge port facility sitiing in the middle of a 21st century city.
Even Cork is 30 years ahead of Dublin on this and is moving it's docklands to an ultra modern port Ringaskiddy and opening a huge, prime area for high-rise redevelopment.
I just think sometimes Dublin has no vision.
I'm hoping this move towards executive mayors in Dublin and Cork helps and isn't just kicked down the road indefinitely.
Our local authority system doesn't work very well.
Good points but Cork is much better served geographically to have different ports. Dublin has one opening to the ocean (Liffey) and that's where the port is. There isn't much scope to put it anywhere else.0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »Good points but Cork is much better served geographically to have different ports. Dublin has one opening to the ocean (Liffey) and that's where the port is. There isn't much scope to put it anywhere else.
Bremore port north of Balbriggan
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/moving-dublin-port-to-free-up-650-acres-for-development-1.902559%3fmode=amp0 -
There is definitely a bearish cautiousness caused by the scar-tissue from the recent crash; however, it’s misplaced. We experienced a credit-fuelled mania which saw completely irrational behaviour such as the ghost-estate phenomenon.
Now, there is a chronic supply of property in Dublin; it’s ongoing but also a legacy of the lack of building during the period 2009 to now. How can prices crash when demand is huge and supply is limited? At best, price growth can taper as supply comes on stream or as demand subsides somewhat.
My sense is that there are people who are wishing for a crash, and that they fall under two main categories; those who have remained on the sidelines and missed out and those who perceive that they will never be able to afford their own place.0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »Good points but Cork is much better served geographically to have different ports. Dublin has one opening to the ocean (Liffey) and that's where the port is. There isn't much scope to put it anywhere else.
Put it anywhere else! It doesn't need to be on the Liffey at all. Driving tons of trucks into the city makes absolutely no sense.
Most goods to Dublin are going to warehousing that is not in the city centre. For warehousing serving Dublin, it's mostly on the M50 or outer suburbs.
A port being anywhere else along the east coast, as long as it's on the motorway network would work absolutely fine.0 -
Andrew Beef wrote: »My sense is that there are people who are wishing for a crash, and that they fall under two main categories; those who have remained on the sidelines and missed out and those who perceive that they will never be able to afford their own place.
There were a few of these people back in 2002-2007 also. They were dismissed as loonies by many. They were on the right side of history. Some held out and snapped up property with little debt in 2011/2012.0 -
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Without trying to provoke a reaction Cork does not even enter the argument. It's suitability for a large port is irrelevant.
Balbriggan was proposed a few years ago and this would seem a good idea. Freeing up all the land around the docks and putting light rail up and down the quays could accommodate huge amounts of residential accommodation.
The elephant on the room imo is the amount of council owned properties walking distance from city centres. There is no need to have relatively un productive people living on premium land.
Removing height restrictions would also help0 -
ok, but won't affect the working class / salaried people much. Don't get me wrong, trying to understand the situation. Am closely following the news and "hard Brexit" is not an option, but understand that can change any minute. As it is, there are lot of people today who cannot afford decent 3 bed as prices are > 500K (in South Dublin) - both new and 2nd hand houses, means this number will increase with hard brexit. The official Brexit date as of now is 30th March 2019, plus I think we got an year's extension (not 100% sure), means 2020. Till all this is in place and become effective, it could be 2022, all starts seeing the real Brexit effects, as somebody predicted earlier in one of the posts, 1997 then and 2022 nowMickiemcfist wrote: »vikas.kshatriya wrote: »Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)
If a hard brexit happens with no well established trade deal, we'll lose our biggest trading partner, exports will drop & businesses here will suffer & lay off staff/cut salaries etc.
if Trump further reduces the corporation tax and trade deal goes ahead rapidly, then people working in U.S companies in Ireland would start seeing the effect and real trouble will start as there are many. But again by that time who knows how many houses / people will be left in Dublin0 -
Arthur Daley wrote:There were a few of these people back in 2002-2007 also. They were dismissed as loonies by many. They were on the right side of history. Some held out and snapped up property with little debt in 2011/2012.
That's a serious 10 year short right there!
The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period.
I would say the percentage of ordinary people who timed it deliberately is in the 0.0001%.
Most people bought when they could and some got lucky with timing as will always happen.
Buy a home that you're happy to stay in for 10+ years and you'll ride most ups and downs.0 -
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vikas.kshatriya wrote: »Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)
After Brexit, Ireland cannot make our own trade deal with the UK, we are in the EU and have signed up to treaties that prevent this.
If the EU/UK throw the toys out of the pram, then we will have trade barriers with the UK, they won't be buying our cheese and milk product.... our agri sector will take a beating.
A lot of pharma will be disrupted too, they will have to UK certify drugs and raw ingredients made here?
Finance is not moving to Ireland, we haven't gotten a single big win yet. Issues with accommodation for UK executives and their families. Access to schools and healthcare are putting them off. You get paid less in the UK but it goes further.
The EU treated Ireland like dirt in the last bust, they leaked that we where talking about a bail out to force us into one. They badly want to take away the 20% corporate tax rate, don't be surprised if we need a referendum here to approve a Brexit deal and what gets tacked on to it.
If business have to deal with new tax codes and regulations that's going to cost money which could have been reinvested into the business.
If we have a border the EU will insist on us funding it not them. So that will take from government spending in other areas. You also end up paying drives to que at the border to cross it. They lose time.
If there is a hard brexit the UK will suffer so will import less, mostly from us, they will let the pound fall in value relative to the euro so will will get paid less for our exports to them and they will be able to export to the likes of the US on better terms than Ireland, assuming they do a deal with the US. Also they could attract business away from us.
Add to this interest rates are low now. They will eventually go up that will have a bigger impact here that in the EU where mortgages are often fixed for life and they get better rates that we do. If that happens at the same time as brexit you will have, business and Job insecurity, people go into saving mode, consumer spending slows or economy shrinks......0
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