hots wrote: » I'd agree with lot's of your post, but this is just silly. 20 years is a long time.
fliball123 wrote: » Ireland is a small country and there is a finite amount of land in the country. Prices will rise for a long time here.
fliball123 wrote: » There is no basis for a crash within the next 20 years.
Hector Savage wrote: » Course it will crash again, you think it can just grow and grow and grow ? Infinite growth based on finite resources will always crash.
CalRobert wrote: » I'm a software engineer from another country living in Dublin for 5 years. This rings pretty true. I wouldn't want to return to my home country but if I can get a remote work arrangement set up I could see buying a farmhouse in Germany or something cash and just wokring from there (once naturalized). It seems crazy that earning around the 90th percentile of incomes in this country you can't buy a halfway decent flat in city centre or near a rail line.
Villa05 wrote: I note that you excluded the cost of the bust in your example a cost that is borne by all of us through higher taxes, looting of pension Reserves, poor infrastructure and poor services plus massive debt on future generations
Andrew Beef wrote: » The above just isn’t accurate. Banks now model property crashes as part of their capital maintenance protocols. People seem to delight in thinking that another crash is coming and in lampooning people who content that “this time it’s different”. But this time it’s very different.
Villa05 wrote: » Andrew Beef wrote: None of that was to fix a broken property market; it was to fix broken banks. As a result of tighter rules, the banks are now insulated. Broken banks are a consequence of a broken property market. Insulation is worthless when your foundations are on bog land. Banks are still broken. The ratio of non performing loans on their books is multiples of their eu counterparts. This is after a bailout that brought the imf to our doorstep and 5/6 years of economic ""recovery"
Andrew Beef wrote: None of that was to fix a broken property market; it was to fix broken banks. As a result of tighter rules, the banks are now insulated.
Elessar wrote: » Just have to reply to this to say very well said, you are 100% correct. I work in IT and over the last 3 years EVERY single one of the non-national IT engineers we have hired have resigned and returned to their original country. While I don't know each of their specific reasons, I know at least some of it is due to the housing issue. Our european colleagues are baffled at not being able to get accomodation in Dublin that is so readily available (and the norm) in most EU cities. They are baffled at having to either share a room in a house with 2 or 3 others in the suburbs or having to pay enormous amounts of money for a 12 month lease in a less than ideal apartment. I'm searching for a 2 bed place at the moment with my girlfriend in north dublin but last nights search turned up 1 (yes ONE) place within our budget (1500pm) in a fairly wide area. It's absolutely crazy how the market is at the moment. Where she is from (a city in Germany smaller than Dublin) good quality apartments are readily available and 800pm would get you a really nice place, with all bills included, and an indefinite lease. I just can't believe Ireland (esp Dublin) has gotten the way it has with regards accomodation. We need thousands more one and two apartments in and near the city ASAP.
Villa05 wrote: » PokeHerKing wrote: The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period. I note that you excluded the cost of the bust in your example a cost that is borne by all of us through higher taxes, looting of pension Reserves, poor infrastructure and poor services plus massive debt on future generations The price of a broken property market stretches far beyond the individual cost of accommodation and affects homeowners as well as people who don't own there home.
PokeHerKing wrote: The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period.
theboringfox wrote: » Solution to the problem in Dublin is to increase supply and main issue affecting supply in my view is NIMBYism stopping people building up. Build loads of nice apartments at higher levels. Cost of each unit will fall rapidly and more people can live in City centre. That'll free up lot of housing too. We need houses too but it's building upwards into that precious skyline is key and people should be voting out councillors and TDs who oppose it
PokeHerKing wrote: » That's a serious 10 year short right there! The reality being if you thought property was overpriced in 2002 and held off for a "crash" and bought in 2012 then I'd say you roughly paid the same price for the property but dumped 100k+ into renting for that period. I would say the percentage of ordinary people who timed it deliberately is in the 0.0001%. Most people bought when they could and some got lucky with timing as will always happen. Buy a home that you're happy to stay in for 10+ years and you'll ride most ups and downs.
Pawwed Rig wrote: » Without trying to provoke a reaction Cork does not even enter the argument. It's suitability for a large port is irrelevant. Balbriggan was proposed a few years ago and this would seem a good idea. Freeing up all the land around the docks and putting light rail up and down the quays could accommodate huge amounts of residential accommodation. The elephant on the room imo is the amount of council owned properties walking distance from city centres. There is no need to have relatively un productive people living on premium land. Removing height restrictions would also help
vikas.kshatriya wrote: » Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)
Arthur Daley wrote: There were a few of these people back in 2002-2007 also. They were dismissed as loonies by many. They were on the right side of history. Some held out and snapped up property with little debt in 2011/2012.
Mickiemcfist wrote: » vikas.kshatriya wrote: » Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin) If a hard brexit happens with no well established trade deal, we'll lose our biggest trading partner, exports will drop & businesses here will suffer & lay off staff/cut salaries etc.
Andrew Beef wrote: » My sense is that there are people who are wishing for a crash, and that they fall under two main categories; those who have remained on the sidelines and missed out and those who perceive that they will never be able to afford their own place.
Mickiemcfist wrote: » Good points but Cork is much better served geographically to have different ports. Dublin has one opening to the ocean (Liffey) and that's where the port is. There isn't much scope to put it anywhere else.
Skedaddle wrote: » It's been both. The interventions they have made are usually useless or counterproductive, yet they're not intervening in where they should be - like shaking out held up landbanks and derelict properties in Dublin. The biggest intervention they could make is properly planning and developing areas in a sane way around good public transit networks. They're doing none of that. It's all reactionary retrofitting of public transit 40 years after the houses are built. Look at what public transit has gone in: they electrified an existing 19th century heavy rail line, put a tram on an abandoned Victorian suburban rail line (green line) and ran a single tram lines to Tallaght and spent the last 30 years patting themselves on the back?!? A lot of the conservation interventions are also absolutely stupid. They should preserve historic buildings and significant areas but a lot of what I see is just people trying to claim that some ugly, utilitarian 19th century building is worth protecting, or that somehow all tall buildings are bad. You'd solve Dublin's housing crisis with a lot of attarctibe, mid-height development (6 floors) in fill and some high quality, signature piece towers in designated areas. Maybe Dublin should be looking at actually designing a 21st century skyline, not trying to preserve this imagined skyline that it doesn't have. It's a flat, largely featureless city with a few historic areas and a lot of bland Victorian and early 20th century stuff that's of little relevance. You can also work with existing buildings to enhance areas with new development. At times here I think it's like we are seeing a living city as a museum that should be frozen in time. You could also enhance and repopulate areas of the city centre that are very dead and run down at present. Also I would strongly suggest that it would make sense to become a lot more aggressive about taxing derelict sites in the city. Nothing should be incentivising people to sit on those. They are urgently needed. Also getting inappropriately used sites cleared - surface car parks, warehousing, low rise bad quality buildings etc etc. There are plenty of those sitting around. The other big one might be longer term but move Dublin port. There's absolutely no logic in having a huge port facility sitiing in the middle of a 21st century city. Even Cork is 30 years ahead of Dublin on this and is moving it's docklands to an ultra modern port Ringaskiddy and opening a huge, prime area for high-rise redevelopment. I just think sometimes Dublin has no vision. I'm hoping this move towards executive mayors in Dublin and Cork helps and isn't just kicked down the road indefinitely. Our local authority system doesn't work very well.
