What IS the future of Europe?

Its Purge Time · 05-03-2018 01:56AM

drillyeye wrote: »

And that, at the end of the day, is what its all about. And the EU has far less to "offer" us than the United states/UK.

For all the countless hours of guff we'll suffer on television for years about borders and who said that and what it might entail and blah blah blah.........it really is that fecking simple!

Yeah. And personally I couldn't give a damn about the EU. I have zero loyalty to Brussels or that mad woman in Germany.

KyussB · 05-03-2018 01:58AM

The economic imbalances caused by the Euro (which have never been resolved), and a lack of adequate fiscal transfers across EU nations to make up for this, combined with one of the next big economic crises, will push a Eurozone country out of the Euro.

No idea what will happen then. It could lead to last minute reforms in the Eurozone which prevent a total breakup (either a closer step to adequate fiscal transfers, or a return to national currencies alongside the Euro) - or it could lead to the disintegration of the Euro, and fracturing of the EU into different currency zones.

The way things seem to go, is that last minute solutions will be reached, but they tend to be shaped in the favour of maintaining Germany's economic dominance - and further securing the removal of economic control within individual EU nations - a trend I expect to see continue through the decades.

JohnnyFlash · 05-03-2018 01:59AM

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

greencap · 05-03-2018 02:02AM

Some of those predictions are hilarious.

Future of Europe is the EU will remain and probably take in one or two more Balkan states.

EU is not going anywhere don't worry.

Start off with the Franco-German economic cooperation, this is basically the core of the EU. For the EU to ever fully die you need to stop Franco-German economic co-operation.

And thats going to take ....well war basically..., since theres absolutely nothing to gain for either party, and probably hundreds of billions to lose.

For it to stop being the EU you'd have to restrict freedom of movement for goods and people between France-Germany. Which wont be an easy vote to win now, since across al of Europe people have formed personal and business relations, invested in properties, formed close ties in different countries.
How you going to unravel that.

Hey buddy vote for the re-introduction of borders and visa so you can no longer live with your significant other abroad, no longer manage your investments, no longer run your business, no longer freely use that property.

Immigration I think has had its day, the centrist masses have come to the conclusion that theres no need to be extreme in either direction, but that we've had enough. It won't ever be Angelas free for all again, like in 2016.

People have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU and the Euro for years now. Its not happening.

Predictions for UK; they come to their senses after a fair but stern offer from the EU. Kick those conservative charlatans out, and let labour backpeddle the UK out of its current mess.
At least until the next inevitable backswing to the cons, then lab-cons-lab-cons ad nauseum.

US: That asshat finishes his full term. His threats and various faux-pas just pushing allies and partners down new paths.
The right lose their appetite for a while.

Hopefully after things go back to normal we can all learn to stop voting for hard liners of all ilks. Learn to stop the bull****.

Cutie 3.14 · 05-03-2018 02:04AM

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:04AM

Its Purge Time wrote: »

Yeah. And personally I couldn't give a damn about the EU. I have zero loyalty to Brussels or that mad woman in Germany.

There was a point were I would have said Merkel can do no wrong, easily the most level-headed, pragmatic world leader out of them all.

Then she woke up one day and decided that Europe was open to the world, come on down, the price is right!

Too bad she didn't ask anyone else, or actually think it through, or have an exit plan, or cooperation. It is one of the worst political decisions ever made in modern history, mind-blowingly bad!

And so weird, to go from maybe the greatest leader in the world to such stupidity in the blink of an eye. Damn strange.

In fact, the only stranger thing is that she has managed to hold onto her position till now, that's kerraazzzy! Not for much longer, I wouldn't say.

In some ways you can say it contributed to brexit even.

Its Purge Time · 05-03-2018 02:07AM

drillyeye wrote: »

There was a point were I would have said Merkel can do no wrong, easily the most level-headed, pragmatic world leader out of them all.

Then she woke up one day and decided that Europe was open to the world, come on down, the price is right!

Too bad she didn't ask anyone else, or actually think it through, or have an exit plan, or cooperation. It is one of the worst political decisions ever made in modern history, mind-blowingly bad!

And so weird, to go from maybe the greatest leader in the world to such stupidity in the blink of an eye. Damn strange.

In fact, the only stranger thing is that she has managed to hold onto her position till now, that's kerraazzzy! Not for much longer, I wouldn't say.

In some ways you can say it contributed to brexit even.

And it's all she'll ever be remembered for. That and the NYE mass sex attacks and the rise of the AFD. Is she evil or just insane?

Its Purge Time · 05-03-2018 02:08AM

Cutie 3.14 wrote: »

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

What are you worried about? That we'll get conscripted?

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:09AM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

Those demographics are Ireland, not the EU. A lot of countries in the EU and in the West generally, will need immigration to maintain their populations. The birth rate falls below replacement levels as countries get more affluent.

The solution to our pension problem is to extend the retirement age, and this is happening already.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:09AM

greencap wrote: »

Some of those predictions are hilarious.

Future of Europe is the EU will remain and probably take in one or two more Balkan states.

EU is not going anywhere don't worry.

Start off with the Franco-German economic cooperation, this is basically the core of the EU. For the EU to ever fully die you need to stop Franco-German economic co-operation.

And thats going to take ....well war basically..., since theres absolutely nothing to gain for either party, and probably hundreds of billions to lose.

For it to stop being the EU you'd have to restrict freedom of movement for goods and people between France-Germany. Which wont be an easy vote to win now, since across al of Europe people have formed personal and business relations, invested in properties, formed close ties in different countries.
How you going to unravel that.

Hey buddy vote for the re-introduction of borders and visa so you can no longer live with your significant other abroad, no longer manage your investments, no longer run your business, no longer freely use that property.

Immigration I think has had its day, the centrist masses have come to the conclusion that theres no need to be extreme in either direction, but that we've had enough. It won't ever be Angelas free for all again, like in 2016.

People have been predicting the imminent collapse of the EU and the Euro for years now. Its not happening.

Predictions for UK; they come to their senses after a fair but stern offer from the EU. Kick those conservative charlatans out, and let labour backpeddle the UK out of its current mess.
At least until the next inevitable backswing to the cons, then lab-cons-lab-cons ad nauseum.

US: That asshat finishes his full term. His threats and various faux-pas just pushing allies and partners down new paths.
The right lose their appetite for a while.

Hopefully after things go back to normal we can all learn to stop voting for hard liners of all ilks. Learn to stop the bull****.

Well I didn't make any mention of france and Germany falling out, I don't think they will. But I do see big questions over Italy remaining. Perhaps in an attempt to make up lost ground Germany will decide to allow in some weaker states.

As for your mention of "normal", we are in this position because of "normal".

"Normal" has had its day, as indicated by quite literally everything that has happened geopolitically for years now.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:14AM

KyussB wrote: »

The economic imbalances caused by the Euro (which have never been resolved), and a lack of adequate fiscal transfers across EU nations to make up for this, combined with one of the next big economic crises, will push a Eurozone country out of the Euro.

No idea what will happen then. It could lead to last minute reforms in the Eurozone which prevent a total breakup (either a closer step to adequate fiscal transfers, or a return to national currencies alongside the Euro) - or it could lead to the disintegration of the Euro, and fracturing of the EU into different currency zones.

The way things seem to go, is that last minute solutions will be reached, but they tend to be shaped in the favour of maintaining Germany's economic dominance - and further securing the removal of economic control within individual EU nations - a trend I expect to see continue through the decades.

Italy is preeeeety likely to be next after brexit. Just watch the election results in the next few days as a good indicator, especially the rhetoric.

I think that's about it though, Germany ill retain control of the EU come hell or highwater and maintain its grip.

Ireland I think will leave, even if Italy don't, based on lack of EU leverage versus a strong anglo leverage.

05-03-2018 02:16AM

Cutie 3.14 wrote: »

Don't know but its scary thinking about it.
Ireland only very recently joined the European Army and it went mostly unnoticed by the masses. I've a very ominous feeling about that...

It did not go unnoticed. Another betrayal imo.

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:16AM

The Anglo leverage did not stop us leaving the Sterling Area, and then joining the Euro. The Eurozone is very strong and it would make no sense to go back to Sterling.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:18AM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Think the pension thing will become a real crisis around 2030. People living to huge ages, while there's less younger folk paying into the pot. The slow decline of the welfare state as a result. There simply won't be enough people working to pay 50/60/70% taxes to support the old. Huge kickback against the small group of society who never work, and cause so much trouble. A proper underclass. Immigration will have been seen as a noble, but deeply flawed, attempt to address the aging populace. The automation of millions of jobs - especially in areas like law, accounting, and finance.

The socialists would tell you that it's late stage capitalism, and to prepare for the revolution; the capitalists would tell you that human ingenuity will solve it. Personally think something new will have to emerge.

There are so many potential crises all due for arrival within the same time frame, automation, nationalism, demographics, protectionism, large bloc breakups (brexit, maybe Italy too), Russia and its "invincible weapons" program, changing climates, societal "movements" sponsored by the likes of facebook based on race, gender, religion, disenfranchised youth and so on......jesus, the list is huge if you were to add it all up.

Some big changes are on the cards, big time! Just as well we have the alternating duo of FG and FF to lead us through it all :P

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:22AM

It's good to live in the most affluent part of the world, in the most affluent age of all time. Where life expectancy went up by 10 years since 1960, which is an astonishing statistic. And people are healthier for far longer than ever before.

We have always had doom and gloom merchants, predicting the demise of all and sundry, but usually they are way off the mark.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:22AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The Anglo leverage did not stop us leaving the Sterling Area, and then joining the Euro. The Eurozone is very strong and it would make no sense to go back to Sterling.

When I say "anglo" I mean a combination effect of both the united states and UK.

Ireland without mulitnationals would sink us overnight. The EU has nothing close to that leverage, and if anything, they have antagonised the relationship we have by targeting out tax rates etc.

greencap · 05-03-2018 02:23AM

drillyeye wrote: »

Well I didn't make any mention of france and Germany falling out, I don't think they will. But I do see big questions over Italy remaining. Perhaps in an attempt to make up lost ground Germany will decide to allow in some weaker states.

As for your mention of "normal", we are in this position because of "normal".

"Normal" has had its day, as indicated by quite literally everything that has happened geopolitically for years now.

Never said you did.

The most Euro-skeptics can hope for is the loss of a limb of the EU.

Again, consider the Franco-German core.
This time from the perspective of Netherlands and Belgium.
Do you want free movement of trade, I think so.

Or from the Polish perspective. Vlads next door, armed to the teeth and taking bits of Ukraine. Want to stay in the club, yeah I think so.

Finland - yeah that might be a good idea.

The EU is a snowball effect, theres economic and military safety in numbers.
And once you're in its so much easier to stay than to get up, leave, and then face life outside the single market.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:24AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It's good to live in the most affluent part of the world, in the most affluent age of all time. Where life expectancy went up by 10 years since 1960, which is an astonishing statistic. And people are healthier for far longer than ever before.

We have always had doom and gloom merchants, predicting the demise of all and sundry, but usually they are way off the mark.

I'm making predictions, of course. But they aren't wild by any stretch of the imagination.

There is just no way, objectively speaking, that anyone can look at the current machinations of the world and think its normal, or "just like before"

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:26AM

drillyeye wrote: »

I'm making predictions, of course. But they aren't wild by any stretch of the imagination.

There is just no way, objectively speaking, that anyone can look at the current machinations of the world and think its normal, or "just like before"

I think your prediction that Ireland will leave the EU is wild.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:29AM

greencap wrote: »

Never said you did.

The most Euro-skeptics can hope for is the loss of a limb of the EU.

Again, consider the Franco-German core.
This time from the perspective of Netherlands and Belgium.
Do you want free movement of trade, I think so.

Or from the Polish perspective. Vlads next door, armed to the teeth and taking bits of Ukraine. Want to stay in the club, yeah I think so.

Finland - yeah that might be a good idea.

The EU is a snowball effect, theres economic and military safety in numbers.
And once you're in its so much easier to stay than to get up, leave, and then face life outside the single market.

I completely agree. But what you list above largely doesn't apply to Ireland, or the UK.

UK is out, as a fact. That leaves us in a tenuous position. You KNOW that the UK is going to be all over us, whether in secret or not, and I think the killer blow will come from them cosying upto the US, and in turn starts flexing its economic control over us.

It was always a terrible idea, long term, to become so reliant on American companies. We cant survive without them, and what can the EU offer in lieu?!

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:31AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I think your prediction that Ireland will leave the EU is wild.

But WHY? ANother poster said "zero chance". But again, why?

In an unstable situation, where our economy relies more on America than anyone else, and the UK is leaving, and we all speak English.........theres a ****ty version of my deduction.

Wheres the deduction on your statement?

Junkyard Tom · 05-03-2018 02:31AM

I predict the EU will be better-off without Britain. When we get a United Ireland we should immediately drop the pretence of neutrality and support, and contribute to, EU military/security rationalisation/integration. Some Brexiturds thought that Britain leaving the EU (if it's even possible for them to without inflicting major self-harm) would cause a domino effect and break-up the EU...

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:33AM

drillyeye wrote: »

But WHY? ANother poster said "zero chance". But again, why?

In an unstable situation, where our economy relies more on America than anyone else, and the UK is leaving, and we all speak English.........theres a ****ty version of my deduction.

Wheres the deduction on your statement?

Because of democracy. Do you really think a Irelexit referendum would succeed here?

pumpkin4life · 05-03-2018 02:35AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

I think your prediction that Ireland will leave the EU is wild.

Britain left it.

Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Austria are more in the telling the Europe to fùck off mood with all this immigration bullshìt.

The National Front made their biggest gains in the last election; the second party in France now an anti-EU party.

Italy today had elections where the biggest party in parliament now is anti-EU.

Nigel Farage is giving talks to people about Irexit and people are turning up to them. Those talks are in demand now and weren't happening a few years ago.

Irish people are go along to get along, hate people who do better then them, love to be told what to do kind of people. We will be one of the last countries to leave.

But still, and if there's any fùcking around with the corporate tax rate and the border, things will change quickly.

Ten years.

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:38AM

About 7 years ago I was being told the Euro was a failed currency and was on the brink of collapse. Greece was supposed to leave the EU. Didn't happen.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:39AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Because of democracy. Do you really think a Irelexit referendum would succeed here?

Well heres a more serious version of that question. Do you think that if Ireland were to be put under gigantic economic pressure to leave the EU, that people might be inclined to vote for their jobs?

Its a potential disaster either way, disastrous to stay in the EU if the American companies start grumbling about leaving, equally disastrous to leave.

The decision would be made on the slimmest of margins. Not to say it entirely hinges on American companies, but the idea that Ireland is just going to be left alone after brexit is never going to happen. Theres serious pressure in some form incoming.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-03-2018 02:41AM

The singular thing that could cause an Irexit is Corp Tax rates, currently 12.5%, but with the likely eu-harmonisation in the not to distant future, make that eu-wide 25%.

Then the UK which will be a tax haven of sorts (by 2020-25) with est. 15-17%, could be seen internationally as more attractive alternative to the EU to set up shop.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:41AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

About 7 years ago I was being told the Euro was a failed currency and was on the brink of collapse. Greece was supposed to leave the EU. Didn't happen.

And what would you have thought of Britain leaving the EU, or a migrant crisis, or the rise of the far right across europe?

Would you have believed that either?

dxhound2005 · 05-03-2018 02:42AM

If it's equally disastrous to leave and equally disastrous to stay, let's stay. It will be less complicated.

drillyeye · 05-03-2018 02:43AM

Owen Shapely Swinger wrote: »

The singular thing that could cause an Irexit is Corp Tax rates, currently 12.5%, but with the likely eu-harmonisation in the not to distant future, make that eu-wide 25%.

Then the UK which will be a tax haven of sorts (by 2020-25) with est. 15-17%, could be seen internationally as more attractive alternative to the EU to set up shop.

Exactly. That's a timebomb en route.

And I still say that an anglo-alliance in some form will happen between the USA and UK, so add the corporation tax problem (the thing that keeps our economy alive) and you've got a whopper on our hands.

What IS the future of Europe?

Comments