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Self drive and snow

  • 02-03-2018 07:39PM
    #1
    kneemos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,892 ✭✭✭✭


    How would they ever manage if the road,path and obstacles such as traffic islands all look the same?


«1345

Comments

  • #2
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    kneemos wrote: »
    How would they ever manage if the road,path and obstacles such as traffic islands all look the same?

    I'd imagine it'll get to the point where they're using incredibly accurate GPS so "reading the road" isn't necessary except for people/dogs etc.


  • #3
    Brian OBrien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Brian OBrien


    You'll never beat the discretion of the human brain. I'll never trust a computer without at least the possibility of human intervention.


  • #4
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,422 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    You'll never beat the discretion of the human brain.

    The incredible stupidity seen on the roads every day, would suggest many brains would easily be beaten.


  • #5
    Brian OBrien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Brian OBrien


    Bruthal wrote: »
    The incredible stupidity seen on the roads every day, would suggest many brains would easily be beaten.
    LIGHTNING wrote: »
    lol

    Well, here's my reasoning. If someone is standing at the side of the road who may look like they are a scammer (certain ethnic minorities come to mind) or a young child or children playing by the roadside, a human brain will know to slow down and prepare for someone darting or jumping out.

    A computer will only look at what's on front of it and brake at the last minute if something comes on front of it.

    Am I misunderstanding anything here?


  • #6
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,422 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    Well, here's my reasoning. If someone is standing at the side of the road who may look like they are a scammer (certain ethnic minorities come to mind) or a young child or children playing by the roadside, a human brain will know to slow down and prepare for someone darting or jumping out.

    A computer will only look at what's on front of it and brake at the last minute if something comes on front of it.

    Am I misunderstanding anything here?

    Well the driver checking their fb page on the phone wont see child, scammer, or path.


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  • #7
    Brian OBrien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Brian OBrien


    Bruthal wrote: »
    Well the driver checking their fb page on the phone wont see child, scammer, or path.

    So is the best situation a self driving car which a human has to remain "in charge of" and can take control should they see fit?


  • #8
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,422 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    So is the best situation a self driving car which a human has to remain "in charge of" and can take control should they see fit?

    Its hard to know how far it will progress in our time. It would be handy after a few pints though.


  • #9
    Brian OBrien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Brian OBrien


    Bruthal wrote: »
    Its hard to know how far it will progress in our time.

    I'm 27, I'd like to think I'll be driving for 50 more years :P


  • #10
    HonalD
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭HonalD


    Bruthal wrote: »
    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    So is the best situation a self driving car which a human has to remain "in charge of" and can take control should they see fit?

    Its hard to know how far it will progress in our time. It would be handy after a few pints though.
    Babies born today will never have to learn to drive. That's how close it is to happening.


  • #11
    Brian OBrien
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 10 ✭Brian OBrien


    HonalD wrote: »
    Babies born today will never have to learn to drive. That's how close it is to happening.

    Will you not need a license to be "in charge of the vehicle" though, manually driven vehicles will still exist won't they?


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  • #12
    HonalD
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭HonalD


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    Bruthal wrote: »
    Well the driver checking their fb page on the phone wont see child, scammer, or path.

    So is the best situation a self driving car which a human has to remain "in charge of" and can take control should they see fit?
    No, the best situation is with no human input. Well, the correction here is that the safest situation is with no human input.


  • #13
    salmocab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,641 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    Well, here's my reasoning. If someone is standing at the side of the road who may look like they are a scammer (certain ethnic minorities come to mind) or a young child or children playing by the roadside, a human brain will know to slow down and prepare for someone darting or jumping out.

    A computer will only look at what's on front of it and brake at the last minute if something comes on front of it.

    Am I misunderstanding anything here?

    Well it depends on the way its programmed but in theory the computer can keep watch in all directions at once so in fact it can watch both the road and the scammers plus the car behind the dog on the path and the next set of lights all at the same time so it could probably be safer, although for all that I'm not sure I'd be comfortable being driven by a machine even if it was proven to be safer.


  • #14
    HonalD
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭HonalD


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    HonalD wrote: »
    Babies born today will never have to learn to drive. That's how close it is to happening.

    Will you not need a license to be "in charge of the vehicle" though, manually driven vehicles will still exist won't they?
    We cannot predict what is going to happen on our island as we may lag behind other countries with the development of self driving vehicles. And I won't be on boards in 20 years time to defend this post either.
    However, looking at markets where self driving vehicles are being piloted and introduced, the market for owning private vehicles will be dramatically different to today's market. Younger people will typically be leasing homes, vehicles etc. as the costs will be prohibitively expensive. If you own a self driving vehicle, you will not drive it to work and leave it for 9 hours in a parking space and then drive it home. It is predicted that you will share vehicles or share rides or use self driving public transport.
    Again, it's not clear what is going to happen on this island of ours but car use and the future for car manufactures is rapidly changing.


  • #15
    HonalD
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭HonalD


    salmocab wrote: »
    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    Well, here's my reasoning. If someone is standing at the side of the road who may look like they are a scammer (certain ethnic minorities come to mind) or a young child or children playing by the roadside, a human brain will know to slow down and prepare for someone darting or jumping out.

    A computer will only look at what's on front of it and brake at the last minute if something comes on front of it.

    Am I misunderstanding anything here?

    Well it depends on the way its programmed but in theory the computer can keep watch in all directions at once so in fact it can watch both the road and the scammers plus the car behind the dog on the path and the next set of lights all at the same time so it could probably be safer, although for all that I'm not sure I'd be comfortable being driven by a machine even if it was proven to be safer.
    Not only that but as vehicles are connected (they can communicate information between each), vehicles that pass situations will notify others of the situation and the following vehicles will compute based on this information through ai applications.


  • #16
    Bruthal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,422 ✭✭✭✭Bruthal


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    I'm 27, I'd like to think I'll be driving for 50 more years :P

    While the rest of us are being driven by our cars.....


  • #17
    Lantus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭Lantus


    Brian OBrien wrote:
    Am I misunderstanding anything here?


    Yes, an awful lot. For every child and adult a human narrowly missed and put it down to advanced human skill there are many more dead and buried.

    When a human learns to drive they are limited primarily to their own experience. That's a fairly limited range of roads and routes and scenarios that any one person will learn.

    When a computer learns a new skill or unusual situation then every car in world can instantly learn that. The combined knowledge of every scenario played out on every road at all points in time.

    A human can never compete with that. But we have all been brought up to believe that we are unique and special snowflakes.


  • #18
    dr.fuzzenstein
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,620 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    ^^^^^^^^
    Agreed, but there was no need for the snowflake comment.
    I would say that in some very few and extreme situations the human could be better than the computer.
    But in 99.99% the computer is better. Most accidents are caused by driver error, so the few bravado cases of heroically saving the day don't matter statistically.
    HonalD wrote: »
    Not only that but as vehicles are connected (they can communicate information between each), vehicles that pass situations will notify others of the situation and the following vehicles will compute based on this information through ai applications.

    That is already happening in a small way.
    Google maps knows if there's a traffic jam and it really does work from own experience.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/how-google-maps-knows-about-traffic-2015-11


  • #19
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,838 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    So is the best situation a self driving car which a human has to remain "in charge of" and can take control should they see fit?

    That's probably the worst situation as without the need to be actively driving a human will not be focussed on the task and will be unlikely to notice or take control in time to react to a situation where they need to take control.

    If a self driving car can't be self driving (with the manufacturer having liability for accidents) then it isn't really self driving, just assisted driving.


  • #20
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,838 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Brian OBrien wrote: »
    Will you not need a license to be "in charge of the vehicle" though, manually driven vehicles will still exist won't they?
    I don't need a license to get in a taxi. Why should I need a license to get in a self driving car? I'm a passenger in either.

    Manually driven vehicles will be around for a long time, think of the age profile of cars on our roads today.


  • #21
    CiniO
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,069 ✭✭✭✭CiniO


    And I think we are still very far away from having fully functional self-driving cars which could drive in all conditions.

    I actually don't believe that will be possible, until quantum computers develop.
    But then we're doomed anyway.

    So far - there will be more and more driving aids, but I wouldn't be hoping for anything major in my lifetime (and I'm 36 now).


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  • #22
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    CiniO wrote: »
    And I think we are still very far away from having fully functional self-driving cars which could drive in all conditions.

    I actually don't believe that will be possible, until quantum computers develop.
    But then we're doomed anyway.

    So far - there will be more and more driving aids, but I wouldn't be hoping for anything major in my lifetime (and I'm 36 now).

    There's nothing that supports your view though. Most industry people say it'll take 5 years or less to have the technology at a good enough stage to release.
    It doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be consistently better than people and that's a view shared by many legislators in the US.

    There's a load of hokum, whataboutery and misinformation about autonomous vehicles, but if you do some cursory research you'll see that its coming sooner than most people think.


  • #23
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,021 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    eeguy wrote: »
    CiniO wrote: »
    And I think we are still very far away from having fully functional self-driving cars which could drive in all conditions.

    I actually don't believe that will be possible, until quantum computers develop.
    But then we're doomed anyway.

    So far - there will be more and more driving aids, but I wouldn't be hoping for anything major in my lifetime (and I'm 36 now).

    There's nothing that supports your view though. Most industry people say it'll take 5 years or less to have the technology at a good enough stage to release.
    It doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be consistently better than people and that's a view shared by many legislators in the US.

    There's a load of hokum, whataboutery and misinformation about autonomous vehicles, but if you do some cursory research you'll see that its coming sooner than most people think.

    I think it will take people time to get used to them. Think how nervous some people are as passengers when someone regarding know is driving. Now imagine those people putting their trust in a computer.

    I don't think it has anything to do with how safe they are because people are useless at calculating risks. Even if they're much safer, there will still be collisions and the tech-phobes will be able to use them to argue against self driving cars.

    It will be class if cars are safer and quicker in traffic etc, but the other side of the coin is all the lost driving jobs.


  • #24
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    I think it will take people time to get used to them. Think how nervous some people are as passengers when someone regarding know is driving. Now imagine those people putting their trust in a computer.

    I don't think it has anything to do with how safe they are because people are useless at calculating risks. Even if they're much safer, there will still be collisions and the tech-phobes will be able to use them to argue against self driving cars.

    It will be class if cars are safer and quicker in traffic etc, but the other side of the coin is all the lost driving jobs.

    They can be nervous or argue all they want. I'd be sure that governments will push for autonomous cars if it's shown they're safer than humans, same as they're phasing out ICE cars.

    Insurance companies will throw a premium on top too.

    Regarding the OP's question, there's a few companies working on autonomous vehicles in snow. In fairness, autonomous vehicles started out in desert and dirt tracks, and they're already in use in mining, so I wouldn't say the task is impossible.
    Daimler have a self driving snowplough concept.


  • #25
    Max Headroom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,984 ✭✭✭Max Headroom


    Self drive cars...then what, let them vote too.......me hole...:p


  • #26
    blackbox
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭blackbox


    They've had autopilots in planes for many, many years, but they still disengage and depend on the pilot in abnormal conditions. Unfortunately, as mentioned above for cars, the pilot can be taken by surprise when this happens.

    Apart from very slow city vehicles, I think it will be several years before autonomous vehicles don't require a person in charge.


  • #27
    CiniO
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,069 ✭✭✭✭CiniO


    blackbox wrote: »
    They've had autopilots in planes for many, many years, but they still disengage and depend on the pilot in abnormal conditions. Unfortunately, as mentioned above for cars, the pilot can be taken by surprise when this happens.

    Apart from very slow city vehicles, I think it will be several years before autonomous vehicles don't require a person in charge.

    I just think we need substantial progress on artificial intelligence to make self driving cars fully functional.
    And IMO it's not going to happen quickly. Or at least I hope it's not, not only because I wouldn't like to see self driving cars, but generally it would be the beginning of the end.


  • #28
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    CiniO wrote: »
    I just think we need substantial progress on artificial intelligence to make self driving cars fully functional.
    And IMO it's not going to happen quickly. Or at least I hope it's not, not only because I wouldn't like to see self driving cars, but generally it would be the beginning of the end.

    Here's a few quote from people more in the know than you.
    Fully autonomous vehicles will be on the road before 2022, says NVIDIA CEO
    The CEO of the chipmaker NVIDIA, Jensen Huang, said that “It will take no more than four years to have fully autonomous cars on the road.” This refers to actual cars driving on the road (not just car models being ready technically) and assumes that the key legal issues will also have been resolved.
    (Source: Reuters, 2017-10-26 )

    Audi to introduce a self-driving car by 2020
    Scott Keogh, Head of Audi America announced at the CES 2017 that an Audio that really would drive itself would be available by 2020.
    (Source: IEEE Spectrum, 2017-01-05)

    NuTonomy to provide self-driving taxi services in Singapore by 2018, expand to 10 cities around the world by 2020
    The company has just started trials of its self-driving taxis in Singapore’s 1 North District. It plans to deploy self-driving taxis commercially in Singapore by 2018 and aims to be operational with fleets of self-driving taxis in 10 cities of the world by 2020.
    (Source: Yahoo News, 2016-08-29, Digital Trends, 2016-05-24)

    Delphi and MobilEye to provide off-the-shelf self-driving system by 2019
    Both companies have announced that they will bring a fully self-driving (SAE level 4) system on the market for use in a variety of cars in 2019.
    Source: TheVerge, 2016-08-23

    Ford CEO announces fully autonomous vehicles for mobility services by 2021
    Mark Fields, Ford’s CEO announced that the company plans to offer fully self-driving vehicles by 2021. The vehicles, which will come without steering wheel and pedals, will be targeted to fleets which provide autonomous mobility services. Fields expects that it will take several years longer until Ford will sell autonomous vehicles to the public.
    Source: Reuters, 2016-08-16


  • #29
    CiniO
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,069 ✭✭✭✭CiniO


    eeguy wrote: »
    Here's a few quote from people more in the know than you.

    We'll only find out if they are more in the know by 2019/2020/2021/2022 or whatever their declared date it.

    They are basing their statements on their business needs.
    I'm basing my statement on my own perception of current world affairs.


  • #30
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    CiniO wrote: »
    We'll only find out if they are more in the know by 2019/2020/2021/2022 or whatever their declared date it.

    They are basing their statements on their business needs.
    I'm basing my statement on my own perception of current world affairs.
    If I had to trust people running the companies who are actively developing the technology, or some randomer from the internet whobhas his own agenda, I know who I'd pick.


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  • #31
    CeilingFly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭CeilingFly


    There's a gps system currently being developed in Europe that when launched, will be accurate to less than 20cm.

    Its an eu project, and one of the more difficult brexit issues cos the UK want it, they are contributing to it, but the launch is after brexit and no deal on funding after brexit has been agreed.

    https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Navigation/Galileo/What_is_Galileo


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