Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2018 11:46PM

Still thinking that some parts of Connacht and higher parts of west Ulster could pick up 3-5 cm cover on Tuesday. Scattered 1-3 cm elsewhere (excluding highest summits in Leinster which could see 5-10).

Thursday could be a repeat performance but much depends on what really happens with the Wednesday low. I think speculation past mid-day Wednesday is useless at this point given the uncertainty on that.

munsterlegend · 14-01-2018 11:52PM

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The forecasts were much more dramatic too in black and white on the 405 line set

I'm old but not that old. I saw clips of those forecasts though.

Pangea · 15-01-2018 12:16AM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The whole idea that Gerry Murphy seems to be afraid to mention 'snow' seems to be based on nothing more than a self regenerating urban myth on this very forum! I am sure if he saw that snow was a possibility in a forecast, he'd mention it freely, without feeling 'dirty'.

Two myths busted in one pic

Gerry Murphy tearing down the Cork snow shield.

nacho libre wrote: »

Personally speaking i miss forecasters like John Eaglton for the reasons outlined

Those were the days alright!

Oneiric 3 · 15-01-2018 12:38AM

Pangea wrote: »

Those were the days alright!

Another beauty from Siobhan:

original?width=606&version=1753457

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 12:45AM

18:00 Euro4

12 am - 6 am Tuesday

6 am - 12 pm

12 pm - 6 pm

Projected maximum temperatures on Tuesday

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2018 12:49AM

Plenty of trough activity for Tuesday.

eWKNiDi.gif?1

Oneiric 3 · 15-01-2018 12:49AM

UK Met have me down for a max temp of 4c on Tuesday (which is more realistic) That map above looks a little over the top regarding max temps. Don't forget we have a strong wind blowing in from the west, this in itself will keep temps above freezing by day as they pick up warmth from the sea.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 12:51AM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

UK Met have me down for a max temp of 4c on Tuesday (which is more realistic)

UK Met has you down for 0c (Euro4)

I'd be surprised if anywhere north of the far south coast and some immediate western coastal areas saw 4c as a maximum at any stage on Tuesday to be honest.

Rebelbrowser · 15-01-2018 12:57AM

That 18z euro 04 has me officially interested. No longer just a gfs flight of fancy.....

Oneiric 3 · 15-01-2018 12:57AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met has you down for 0c (Euro4)

I'd be surprised if anywhere north of the far south coast and some immediate western coastal areas saw 4c as a maximum at any stage on Tuesday to be honest.

pad199207 · 15-01-2018 12:58AM

Right I’m interested now....

Rougies · 15-01-2018 01:01AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met has you down for 0c (Euro4)

I'd be surprised if anywhere north of the far south coast and some immediate western coastal areas saw 4c as a maximum at any stage on Tuesday to be honest.

In fairness the UK Met is an organisation, Euro4 is just one of thier tools.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-01-2018 01:03AM

So what the EURO4 but especially the GFS are saying is that we should see no precipitation reports of anything other than snow during Tuesday afternoon and evening for practically the whole country. No rain, no sleet, just snow. The other models are more mixed, with the ECM mostly rain and sleet. The ultimate litmus test of the models.

Rougies · 15-01-2018 01:05AM

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That 18z euro 04 has me officially interested. No longer just a gfs flight of fancy.....

Be cautious, it's often one of the best eye candy charts for snow. Not saying it won't happen, but it does tend to show us what we want to see.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 01:08AM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It takes time for the raw data to be fed in to the apps, same with the BBC weather charts for example.

Soccarboy11 · 15-01-2018 01:11AM

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That 18z euro 04 has me officially interested. No longer just a gfs flight of fancy.....

Im liking the 12pm-6pm slot..

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2018 01:11AM

Well if there is a fair amount of snow then add the wind expected for Tues and could make for some severe conditions. Would imagine with that amount of instability there would be lots of big hail showers as well and some very big convective gusts, and dont forget a few thunderstorms thrown in to boot!

Shaping up to be a rough spell of weather.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 01:15AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

So what the EURO4 but especially the GFS are saying is that we should see no precipitation reports of anything other than snow during Tuesday afternoon and evening for practically the whole country. No rain, no sleet, just snow. The other models are more mixed, with the ECM mostly rain and sleet. The ultimate litmus test of the models.

Why not? The minimum criteria has been met since the very start of the thread for snow to low levels and that was practically model wide.

It may not happen like that and undoubtedly there will be mixing at times and immediate coastal areas in the west will more than likely not have settling snow but I have little doubt many areas will see snowfall and quite a few will have lying snow as well over the period Monday night - Wednesday afternoon.

We have to factor in the nature of shower activity is hit and miss of course especially further east. Also precipitation rates here will also have an impact.

Other than that for me the criteria is met.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 01:21AM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Plenty of trough activity for Tuesday.

At the moment merging seems more likely (but not exclusively) in the northern half of the country.

Popeleo · 15-01-2018 01:22AM

Now he can go to bed happy

JCX BXC · 15-01-2018 01:27AM

Those charts look interesting!

Frankly I'm looking forward to a very interesting week of weather, cold begins to move down into the north over the next few hours!

Pity my not old Davis has given up.

compsys · 15-01-2018 01:38AM

For the first time this winter the BBC forecast is actually showing snow in Dublin for Tuesday.

In my experience a lot of the snow forecasts on here are more "hopecasts", but when the BBC says it's going to snow it definitely does!

Can't wait.

Gonzo · 15-01-2018 02:58AM

BBC has really downgraded the snow risk for much of the Uk over this week. They are showing snow mainly over Scotland and Ireland for Tuesday, mostly rain over England and Wales and from Wednesday mostly just rain or sleet and milder conditions slowly returning after Thursday. Looks like Tuesday is our day of hope.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 07:00AM

00z Euro4 Tuesday afternoon

Dew Points

Progged Temperatures 3pm

GFS brings in the wintry weather on Monday night a bit earlier than previous.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-01-2018 08:18AM

Belfast Aldergrove's TAF to 6 am Tuesday has moderate snow showers from 8 pm tonight. Knock's only mentions moderate rain showers up to midnight, with no precip thereafter. The UK Met's use of the EURO4 is evident there.

(CONNAUGHT) TAF EIKN 150500Z 1506/1606 28015KT 9999 SCT012
TEMPO 1506/1524 29022G34KT 4000 SHRA BKN010 BKN020CB =

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 150500Z 1506/1606 24015KT 9999 FEW014 BKN030
TEMPO 1506/1515 7000 SHRA BKN014
TEMPO 1515/1520 26018G28KT 3000 SHRASN BKN008 BKN015CB
TEMPO 1520/1606 26020G30KT 1200 SHSN BKN002=

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 08:23AM

TAF's I see keep being quoted. I don't understand why.

They are model dependent. There is a little intuition in there but nothing more than you see here.

So I don't see the point really.

As above the Knock to 6 am Tuesday - no snow, sleet, hail. Just rain.

No debate to be had.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-01-2018 08:25AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

TAF's I see keep being quoted. I don't understand why.

They are model dependent. There is a little intuition in there but nothing more than you see here.

So I don't see the point really.

As above the Knock to 6 am Tuesday - no snow. Just rain.

No debate to be had.

TAFs (right or wrong) are far more than model-dependent. If any forecast is intuitive then it's these. They need to be, aviation depends on them. Granted they're only valid for the airport area but they can give a good idea of the overall thinking.

I know they're not always right, but that's another debate. But there is a debate to be had.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2018 08:52AM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

TAFs (right or wrong) are far more than model-dependent. If any forecast is intuitive then it's these. They need to be, aviation depends on them. Granted they're only valid for the airport area but they can give a good idea of the overall thinking.

I know they're not always right, but that's another debate. But there is a debate to be had.

I want full time meteorologists at airports and I very much understand it's importance to aviation but it's not acceptable at Irish airports in 2018 that they have a direct say in every TAF.

Belfast appears to me to do the right thing - model guidance first.

Here TAFs are very often wrong (as in the Knock case above by any objectionable measure) because they allow too much input from individuals who may not even be fully trained meteorologists.

Models first in my opinion. Full automation ultimately.

P.S i'm not having a go at the meteorologists stationed at airports.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-01-2018 08:59AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I want full time meteorologists at airports and I very much understand it's importance to aviation but it's not acceptable at Irish airports in 2018 that they have a direct say in every TAF.

Belfast appears to me to do the right thing - model guidance first.

Here TAFs are very often wrong (as in the Knock case above by any objectionable measure) because they allow too much input from individuals who may not even be fully trained meteorologists.

Models first in my opinion. Full automation ultimately.

Sorry, but airport personnel have no say in the TAFs. All TAFs for every airport in the Republic are written by aviation forecasters at Shannon. That goes for the aviation charts, SIGMET, etc. This forecaster may consult with the local observor on local conditions but the observor does not make the forecast.

The TAFS for the North are written by an aviation forecaster somewhere in the UK (Reading or Prestwick, I'm not sure).

In both cases the forecast is very human, with guidance from the models, but it's not a point forecast like many of the weather apps.

By the way, all airport tower personnel are also trained observers, though the 4 main airports have full time Met Éireann observers there in addition (for now).

DOCARCH · 15-01-2018 09:03AM

Mod Note: Can we keep the TAF debate for another day/thread, thanks.

BTW. Mods are happy to have TAFs reported/included in threads, generally, as long as those posting them give some explanation/decode them.

Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Comments