Costs of Irish unification.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 04:13PM

psinno wrote: »

I think Ireland took on some UK debt under the Anglo Irish treaty when it separated. If Northern Ireland separated from the United Kingdom I don't see why it would be any different. Why would it be any different except for wishful thinking?

If there is a vote for a UI in both jurisdictions Britain cannot resist it. They are Agreement bound to make it happen.
In that sense negotiations around a hand over will not be a bargaining chamber, there will not be a scenario such as; 'If you do not take x amount of debt, you are not getting unification'
What will happen is two sovereign governments will sit down to work out the best possible deal to make the transition as smooth as possible.
The last thing Britain will want is a mess on their doorstep.

Red_Wake · 10-01-2018 04:17PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

psinno wrote: »

I think Ireland took on some UK debt under the Anglo Irish treaty when it separated. If Northern Ireland separated from the United Kingdom I don't see why it would be any different. Why would it be any different except for wishful thinking?

If there is a vote for a UI in both jurisdictions Britain cannot resist it. They are Agreement bound to make it happen.
In that sense negotiations around a hand over will not be a bargaining chamber, there will not be a scenario such as; 'If you do not take x amount of debt, you are not getting unification'
What will happen is two sovereign governments will sit down to work out the best possible deal to make the transition as smooth as possible.
The last thing Britain will want is a mess on their doorstep.

Any agreement on unification[including the possibility of assuming responsibility for national debt] still has to be agreed to by Parliament, and if they are unwilling to agree to a no debt unification, can prevent it.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 04:24PM

Red_Wake wrote: »

Any agreement on unification[including the possibility of assuming responsibility for national debt] still has to be agreed to by Parliament, and if they are unwilling to agree to a no debt unification, can prevent it.

I disagree with this, there is a long thread on it already so not going to get into it.

Parliament has already agreed to the terms of the GFA.

Red_Wake · 10-01-2018 04:37PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Red_Wake wrote: »

Any agreement on unification[including the possibility of assuming responsibility for national debt] still has to be agreed to by Parliament, and if they are unwilling to agree to a no debt unification, can prevent it.

I disagree with this, there is a long thread on it already so not going to get into it.

Parliament has already agreed to the terms of the GFA.

That thread explained to you clearly that the terms of GFA don't demand Parliament to pass any legislation unifying Ireland, merely that the British Government is obliged to bring legislation in front of Parliament that unifies Ireland, in the event of a border poll passing in both jurisdictions.

However, feel free to bury your head in the sand.

tomwaterford · 10-01-2018 04:38PM

psinno wrote: »

I think Ireland took on some UK debt under the Anglo Irish treaty when it separated

But didn't pay it

Hence the old economic war between Dev and England....who got in a whah then when ireland wouldn't join up with em in ww2

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 04:49PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well then, what we need to do is see how much it can be reduced to and then start the discussion.

You have already said the PS can be reformed. I would expect that if a UI is approaching that will be dealt with by negotiations between the two governments who will have a vested interest in making a UI work.

Off you go then.

It's off no concern to us what another jurisdiction does in respect of its public services. I suggest SF etc get Stormont going again and start the programme of reform and discuss with their paymasters in Whitehall how to fund it.

We'd be stone mad to take it as a promise that everything will be sorted after UI - €10 billion per year is a heck of a gamble to take on a community that has, for at least two decades, refused to reform......even during the worst of the austerity years they dodged requirements imposed in other parts of the UK.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 04:55PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Off you go then.

It's off no concern to us what another jurisdiction does in respect of its public services. I suggest SF etc get Stormont going again and start the programme of reform and discuss with their paymasters in Whitehall how to fund it.

We'd be stone mad to take it as a promise that everything will be sorted after UI - €10 billion per year is a heck of a gamble to take on a community that has, for at least two decades, refused to reform......even during the worst of the austerity years they dodged requirements imposed in other parts of the UK.

'We' 'Us'?

Don't you think all this should be debated before you appoint yourself as a spokesperson for the nation?

James Brown · 10-01-2018 04:57PM

psinno wrote: »

I think Ireland took on some UK debt under the Anglo Irish treaty when it separated. If Northern Ireland separated from the United Kingdom I don't see why it would be any different. Why would it be any different except for wishful thinking?

It's not wishful thinking. The cost doesn't enter into it for me personally.
It would be logical to have some debate is all. Saying it'll be all one way is guess work too.

It will be a massive discussion and who owes what to whom, who's responsible for debts etc. will obviously be part of that discussion.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 05:01PM

Red_Wake wrote: »

That thread explained to you clearly that the terms of GFA don't demand Parliament to pass any legislation unifying Ireland, merely that the British Government is obliged to bring legislation in front of Parliament that unifies Ireland, in the event of a border poll passing in both jurisdictions.

However, feel free to bury your head in the sand.

And if you had read the thread you would know that I said the following:

Parliament is fully entitled to vote against UI legislation but Parliament by doing so would be breaking the agreement they had previously adopted/ratified.

blanch152 · 10-01-2018 05:43PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I disagree with this, there is a long thread on it already so not going to get into it.

Parliament has already agreed to the terms of the GFA.

It was pointed out to you repeatedly on that thread that you were wrong, and the parts of the GFA were explained to you clearly so you should be well aware by now that you are wrong.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 05:51PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It was pointed out to you repeatedly on that thread that you were wrong, and the parts of the GFA were explained to you clearly so you should be well aware by now that you are wrong.

I am quite sure it was pointed out to you that you were wrong. From what I remember you couldn't get by this.

Parliament is fully entitled to vote against UI legislation but Parliament by doing so would be breaking the agreement they had previously adopted/ratified.

The idea that after all the pain and suffering that anyone would sign an agreement that a British parliament could simply vote down is fantastic though.

I won't have any more to say on this as I am sure the mods will deem it off topic. Revive the old thread if you have something new to add.

blanch152 · 10-01-2018 06:03PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And if you had read the thread you would know that I said the following:

Parliament is fully entitled to vote against UI legislation but Parliament by doing so would be breaking the agreement they had previously adopted/ratified.

That remains a nonsense argument.

Parliament only made an agreement that the UK Government would introduce and support a Bill, Parliament did not bind itself to support that bill.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 06:08PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'We' 'Us'?

Don't you think all this should be debated before you appoint yourself as a spokesperson for the nation?

Yes, we and us......the tax payers of the Republic. We pay our taxes in the Republic for services, such as they are, to be provided in the Republic, not in other jurisdictions (other than nominal amounts to help citizens who've emigrated and fallen on hard times).

I'm happy for it to be debated - and I'm no one's spokesperson, just someone who thinks we'd be mad to take on the funding obligations that currently apply in NI.

As I said, they should sort their own 'house' out first - get the deficit down to something approaching Greek levels then the economic argument against UI becomes less of an issue.

blanch152 · 10-01-2018 06:17PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Yes, we and us......the tax payers of the Republic. We pay our taxes in the Republic for services, such as they are, to be provided in the Republic, not in other jurisdictions (other than nominal amounts to help citizens who've emigrated and fallen on hard times).

I'm happy for it to be debated - and I'm no one's spokesperson, just someone who thinks we'd be mad to take on the funding obligations that currently apply in NI.

As I said, they should sort their own 'house' out first - get the deficit down to something approaching Greek levels then the economic argument against UI becomes less of an issue.

I really don't understand the opposition to this. If the people of the North want to unify with the South, surely they should be willing to put their own house in order first so that they can be in a good position to persuade the South to accept them?

James Brown · 10-01-2018 06:21PM

For the sections of southern society who might care; What would that 'house in order' be and how will we know when this is achieved?

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 06:50PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

For the sections of southern society who might care; What would that 'house in order' be and how will we know when this is achieved?

When the fiscal deficit is below 10% - or about a third of what it currently is.

We'll only be on the hook for about €2 to €3 billion then. More manageable from our perspective.

James Brown · 10-01-2018 06:52PM

It's unlikely to happen, without a united Ireland even being on the table. Then of course I can't see the likes of the DUP sweating it.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 06:53PM

Jawgap wrote: »

When the fiscal deficit is below 10% - or about a third of what it currently is.

We'll only be on the hook for about €2 to €3 billion then. More manageable from our perspective.

Again with the 'we'.

They (the north) will be contributing as well. If we are all paying the bill it will be in all our interests to keep that bill down.

Junkyard Tom · 10-01-2018 07:01PM

It's nice to see Overton's Window on a UI shift fairly dramatically away from 'unthinkable'.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 07:12PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again with the 'we'.

They (the north) will be contributing as well. If we are all paying the bill it will be in all our interests to keep that bill down.

Yes, we......me and my fellow tax payers in the Republic.

And they, in the NI, won't be contributing unless they are taking a significant hit on services and spending......if the place is in deficit, to the fund of €10 billion per annum, how can it contribute anything except debt, liabilities and instability?

James Brown · 10-01-2018 07:14PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Yes, we......me and my fellow tax payers in the Republic.

And they, in the NI, won't be contributing unless they are taking a significant hit on services and spending......if the place is in deficit, to the fund of €10 billion per annum, how can it contribute anything except debt, liabilities and instability?

Maybe Kenny will do a come back and rescue them?

It's painted like the Brits will be tearing up railway tracks and stripping the copper wire from the walls.

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 07:19PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Yes, we......me and my fellow tax payers in the Republic.

And they, in the NI, won't be contributing unless they are taking a significant hit on services and spending......if the place is in deficit, to the fund of €10 billion per annum, how can it contribute anything except debt, liabilities and instability?

If the north is a 'basket case' economically that means money is being wasted and not enough is being done.
There will be a transition period between a vote for a UI and a handover. The bill will be dramatically reduced in that period by two sovereign governments and all those who want this to work.
It won't be anything like 10bn and I think you know this.
There are many ways to deal with it if the governments are on the same page.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 07:28PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the north is a 'basket case' economically that means money is being wasted and not enough is being done.
There will be a transition period between a vote for a UI and a handover. The bill will be dramatically reduced in that period by two sovereign governments and all those who want this to work.
It won't be anything like 10bn and I think you know this.
There are many ways to deal with it if the governments are on the same page.

There's no 'if' about it......according to UU's Economic Policy Centre.....

I'm sure there's tons of waste, unheard of levels of duplication etc and all of which should be sorted out before we get to discussing a UI. Why would we want to get involved in clearing up an economic mess we had no part in creating?

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 07:31PM

Jawgap wrote: »

There's no 'if' about it......according to UU's Economic Policy Centre.....

I'm sure there's tons of waste, unheard of levels of duplication etc and all of which should be sorted out before we get to discussing a UI. Why would we want to get involved in clearing up an economic mess we had no part in creating?

Because some of us want a healthy, prosperous, socially cohesive and forward looking UI?
We will see how many of us do, come a poll.

James Brown · 10-01-2018 07:48PM

Jawgap wrote: »

There's no 'if' about it.....

I'm sure there's tons of waste, unheard of levels of duplication etc and all of which should be sorted out before we get to discussing a UI. Why would we want to get involved in clearing up an economic mess we had no part in creating?

The tax payer has done it before for far less reward.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 07:48PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because some of us want a healthy, prosperous, socially cohesive and forward looking UI?
We will see how many of us do, come a poll.

I'm sure we will.

Speaking of healthy......that same report also notes.....

When compared to all other UK regions, NI has the highest proportion (% of working age population) of benefit claimants across every major benefit.

Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in NI represents the largest group of benefit claimants and accounts for 17% of NI’s working age population,
compared to 12% in the next highest UK region, Wales (9p.p higher than the UK average of 8%).

.....guess we'll be expected to pick up the tab for that too.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 07:50PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The tax payer has done it before for far less reward.

We did - and as I explained when that point was raised before, we were able to at least vote out the architects of that mess......how do we, in the Republic, vote out the architects of the mess in NI?

FrancieBrady · 10-01-2018 08:02PM

Jawgap wrote: »

We did - and as I explained when that point was raised before, we were able to at least vote out the architects of that mess......how do we, in the Republic, vote out the architects of the mess in NI?

Vote for a UI?

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 08:05PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Vote for a UI?

So we import a mess then vote out those who caused it!!!!!

Genius, pure genius!

If someone crashed their car and offered it to you and promised to fix the damage after you signed for it and handed over the cash......would you buy it?

Btw, I don't expect an answer beyond the usual deflections.

Jawgap · 10-01-2018 08:18PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Maybe Kenny will do a come back and rescue them?

It's painted like the Brits will be tearing up railway tracks and stripping the copper wire from the walls.

Not at all. I'd imagine they'd negotiate a handover, reach some agreement on what their funding liabilities are in terms of cost and duration, then hand us the keys and wish us good luck while they go off and figure out how to spend the money they were previously ploughing into the place.

Costs of Irish unification.

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