Costs of Irish unification.

Chips Lovell · 09-01-2018 09:12AM

Ulster is by no means unique. There are plenty of historic regions which straddle two or more countries, such as Savoy, Macedonia, the Basque country, Catalonia to name a few.

blanch152 · 09-01-2018 09:40AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Break that figure down for us. What would not be applicable in a UI and after a period of 'preparation'.

It is up to those who wish for a united Ireland to do the persuading. They are the ones who have to promise that it won't cost an arm and a leg, they are the ones who have to explain why there won't be tax rises and social welfare cuts.

We know there is a €9bn cost, we know there are differences in tax, public service pay and welfare costs. We need to know who is going to pay for these or suffer cuts. It is time that the advocates of unification came clean and told us or either admitted that they don't have a clue.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 09:45AM

blanch152 wrote: »

It is up to those who wish for a united Ireland to do the persuading. They are the ones who have to promise that it won't cost an arm and a leg, they are the ones who have to explain why there won't be tax rises and social welfare cuts.

We know there is a €9bn cost, we know there are differences in tax, public service pay and welfare costs. We need to know who is going to pay for these or suffer cuts. It is time that the advocates of unification came clean and told us or either admitted that they don't have a clue.

On an internet forum? Sorry, it's not going to happen. It will happen as soon as a border poll is announced.
There will be a requirement for the full facts and figures to be given and only then can we get reliable indications of how a smooth UI can happen and how long it might take.
The south has more than proved that a huge deficit can be turned around if the will is there.

09-01-2018 09:47AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The south has more than proved that a huge deficit can be turned around if the will is there.

You make it sound like it was an easy thing to do.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 09:52AM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

You make it sound like it was an easy thing to do.

No, it wasn't easy.
NI is a failed state, has been for many years. It is not going to get better as it is. Fixing it will be a challenge.
What people have to decide, is it a challenge they wish to undertake for everyone's benefit and not just economic benefit either?
I think it is.

ancapailldorcha · 09-01-2018 10:07AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, it wasn't easy.
NI is a failed state, has been for many years. It is not going to get better as it is. Fixing it will be a challenge.
What people have to decide, is it a challenge they wish to undertake for everyone's benefit and not just economic benefit either?
I think it is.

By what metrics is Northern Ireland a failed state? Specifics please.

The troubles are largely over and while the place has a lot to be desired economically, it's a perfectly functional country and I rather enjoyed my time living there.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 10:11AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

By what metrics is Northern Ireland a failed state? Specifics please.

The troubles are largely over and while the place has a lot to be desired economically, it's a perfectly functional country and I rather enjoyed my time living there.

It cannot be run without an internationally binding agreement between 2 governments presiding over it.
It does not elect a devolved government in the same way as Scotland or Wales.
It requires a 9bn, 10bn, 12bn subsidy to keep it afloat.
It's executive has once again collapsed.

And I agree, it is indeed a great place to live.

09-01-2018 10:15AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, it wasn't easy.
NI is a failed state, has been for many years. It is not going to get better as it is. Fixing it will be a challenge.
What people have to decide, is it a challenge they wish to undertake for everyone's benefit and not just economic benefit either?
I think it is.

It would be quite a challenge I think to explain to the voters down south that they cannot have a new hospital / road / their school must close because the north would be expensive for the first couple of years.

According to SJI we have 800,000 living in poverty and 1 million living with deprivation as it is in the south so we are not exactly a stunning success here ourselves without taking a chance on NI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/almost-800-000-live-in-poverty-despite-improved-economy-think-tank-1.3348396

Yes, I do believe that it could work out very well but Id say it would take at least 20 years to integrate the two sides, and good luck getting the brits to pay. They wont give a f**k.

We would also have to work to avoid incidents like Barry McElduff and his bread though, this sort of thing doesnt help anybody.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 10:22AM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

It would be quite a challenge I think to explain to the voters down south that they cannot have a new hospital / road / their school must close because the north would be expensive for the first couple of years.

According to SJI we have 800,000 living in poverty and 1 million living with deprivation as it is in the south so we are not exactly a stunning success here ourselves without taking a chance on NI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/almost-800-000-live-in-poverty-despite-improved-economy-think-tank-1.3348396

Yes, I do believe that it could work out very well but Id say it would take at least 20 years to integrate the two sides, and good luck getting the brits to pay. They wont give a f**k.

A lot of guesswork there to be honest. I agree though it was always and will be a challenge.

We would also have to work to avoid incidents like Barry McElduff and his bread though, this sort of thing doesnt help anybody.

I totally agree. It was a stupid lapse of judgement at best.
There are two sides to that though. There is a requirement on all to not engage in taunting or provoking and to think before you speak.

blanch152 · 09-01-2018 10:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I totally agree. It was a stupid lapse of judgement at best.
There are two sides to that though. There is a requirement on all to not engage in taunting or provoking and to think before you speak.

There are no two sides to what McElduff did.

09-01-2018 10:39AM

We will have 2 problems in the event of a united Ireland.

The economic one and the community.

The economic will be difficult enough with out one side of the community taking a triumphant attitude to the other and riling them up.

I dont care what the other side is doing (and the DUP have a vast back catalogue of ignorance), I care what my side is doing.

ancapailldorcha · 09-01-2018 10:45AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It cannot be run without an internationally binding agreement between 2 governments presiding over it.
It does not elect a devolved government in the same way as Scotland or Wales.
It requires a 9bn, 10bn, 12bn subsidy to keep it afloat.
It's executive has once again collapsed.

And I agree, it is indeed a great place to live.

The executive breakdown is down to the parties involved rather than the state.

The UK as a whole is running a fiscal deficit and that isn't a failed state.

Jawgap · 09-01-2018 11:24AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It cannot be run without an internationally binding agreement between 2 governments presiding over it.
It does not elect a devolved government in the same way as Scotland or Wales.
It requires a 9bn, 10bn, 12bn subsidy to keep it afloat.
It's executive has once again collapsed.

And I agree, it is indeed a great place to live.

Lots of countries are bound by the corpus of international law and they honour multi-lateral and bi-lateral treaties overseen by supra-national bodies. Just because there are international agreements doesn't mean a state has failed.

Arguably, the system in NI is fairer as minorities are guaranteed a certain level of representation and there are mechanisms in place to stop the majority riding roughshod over the wishes of the minority.

Deficits and deficit spending are not necessarily bad things - indeed some minor level of deficit can be worthwhile. NI could easily survive on a balanced budget but services would have to be curtailed - there is no evidence that politicians or the electorate are willing to suffer the deterioration in living standards responsible stewardship of the economy would entail.

To even halve the deficit would require imagination and sacrifice apparently beyond the communities there - better, it seems, to build an industry around the Peace Process and the GFA and use that to leverage funds from HM Treasury - or any other source that might supplant them.

The electorate need to get a grip - they elect and re-elect the same characters then are surprised when the same outcome materialises. So they have a choice - continue to elect people who seem to have their focus on the past and telling people what to be afraid of, or bring in different people with a bit more imagination and disposed towards reform.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 11:32AM

Jawgap wrote: »

Lots of countries are bound by the corpus of international law and they honour multi-lateral and bi-lateral treaties overseen by supra-national bodies. Just because there are international agreements doesn't mean a state has failed.

Arguably, the system in NI is fairer as minorities are guaranteed a certain level of representation and there are mechanisms in place to stop the majority riding roughshod over the wishes of the minority.

Deficits and deficit spending are not necessarily bad things - indeed some minor level of deficit can be worthwhile. NI could easily survive on a balanced budget but services would have to be curtailed - there is no evidence that politicians or the electorate are willing to suffer the deterioration in living standards responsible stewardship of the economy would entail.

To even halve the deficit would require imagination and sacrifice apparently beyond the communities there - better, it seems, to build an industry around the Peace Process and the GFA and use that to leverage funds from HM Treasury - or any other source that might supplant them.

The electorate need to get a grip - they elect and re-elect the same characters then are surprised when the same outcome materialises. So they have a choice - continue to elect people who seem to have their focus on the past and telling people what to be afraid of, or bring in different people with a bit more imagination and disposed towards reform.

That is all well and good. But the failure of northern Ireland to deliver a normal society to live in means to me that the state has failed.
The current state of the executive is testament to that.

ancapailldorcha · 09-01-2018 11:35AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is all well and good. But the failure of northern Ireland to deliver a normal society to live in means to me that the state has failed.
The current state of the executive is testament to that.

Your just repeating yourself here. Northern Irish society is perfectly functional. People are just going about their own business and probably find their day-to-day lives unaffected by the lack of an executive.

markodaly · 09-01-2018 11:40AM

blanch152 wrote: »

It is up to those who wish for a united Ireland to do the persuading. They are the ones who have to promise that it won't cost an arm and a leg, they are the ones who have to explain why there won't be tax rises and social welfare cuts.

We know there is a €9bn cost, we know there are differences in tax, public service pay and welfare costs. We need to know who is going to pay for these or suffer cuts. It is time that the advocates of unification came clean and told us or either admitted that they don't have a clue.

Not only this, would there not be a divorce bill to be settled? Would NI, or really the Republic have to pay the UK lots of billions in any settlement. We are after all taking over a part of its territory.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 11:41AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Your just repeating yourself here. Northern Irish society is perfectly functional. People are just going about their own business and probably find their day-to-day lives unaffected by the lack of an executive.

Day to day live goes on, but I think stating that politics is 'functional' or normal is a bit of a stretch to be honest.
Deep entrenchment still exists in northern Ireland and shows no sign of diminishing. They may somehow get the executive back up and running but it will collapse again.
The divisions created by partition run too deep.
I used to think they could be fixed but I no longer think that way. The only way you will have normality on this island is to get rid of what caused the division and begin again.

markodaly · 09-01-2018 11:43AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is all well and good. But the failure of northern Ireland to deliver a normal society to live in means to me that the state has failed.
The current state of the executive is testament to that.

Even if your argument is true, how would a UI resolve this?
It wouldn't.

ancapailldorcha · 09-01-2018 11:45AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Day to day live goes on, but I think stating that politics is 'functional' or normal is a bit of a stretch to be honest.
Deep entrenchment still exists in northern Ireland and shows no sign of diminishing. They may somehow get the executive back up and running but it will collapse again.
The divisions created by partition run too deep.
I used to think they could be fixed but I no longer think that way. The only way you will have normality on this island is to get rid of what caused the division and begin again.

I think it was beginning to heal quite nicely before the Brexit. I have a journalist friend in Belfast who assures me that it is a completely different place than it was at the turn of the decade when I was living there.

Hospitals, Policing, schools and transport are all working fine as are businesses. Therefore, I do think it is fair to say that the country is functioning. The ideological fanatics on both sides are beginning to become irrelevant thankfully with a new, more pragmatic politics in NI taking its place.

Jawgap · 09-01-2018 11:47AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is all well and good. But the failure of northern Ireland to deliver a normal society to live in means to me that the state has failed.
The current state of the executive is testament to that.

I'd say NI functions perfectly well for the majority of people the majority of the time - even without the Executive the bins are still being emptied, the lights still come on, the schools open, taxes get collected, SW payments are made, the trains still run and the hospitals still function, do they not?

but I understand that the SF narrative is use to use words like "statelet," "failed," "partition" etc to convey the idea that the area is a rump, ready to be cast off, with a moral obligation on the Republic to catch it and provide the safety net.

What SF fail to realise is that we are not that stupid - emotionally the majority of us may agree that a UI is desirable, in the way that the fulfillment of any long held aspiration is emotionally satisfying, but we recognise there is a cost.

Unfortunately for SF that cost is generally quantifiable, and it's in the billions. Additionally, there other problem is that their policies seem to encourage economic convergence - except its convergence based on us retarding our growth and hoping that NI somehow will magically accelerate its growth.

Frankly, that's nonsense. We will have to pay a cost for unification but until NI gets its house in order and reduces its deficit to at least below 10% of GDP the economic argument will always weigh heavily against it.

The problem now is that the Republic is surging ahead again, while NI languishes sucking up money while offering no appreciable gains.

As I said, the first order of business should be to get the Executive going, get control of the Corporation Tax and leverage that, with the goodwill still prevailing for NI into some decent FDI prospects, and start growing the economy to reduce the deficit.......or the status quo can prevail in NI and the Republic will march merrily on.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 11:52AM

Jawgap wrote: »

I'd say NI functions perfectly well for the majority of people the majority of the time -

I didn't read anymore than this.

No you would not say that, you are flat out, when it suits, saying it is an economic sinkhole that you want nothing to do with because it is dysfunctional. :rolleyes:

Jawgap · 09-01-2018 11:56AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Day to day live goes on, but I think stating that politics is 'functional' or normal is a bit of a stretch to be honest.
Deep entrenchment still exists in northern Ireland and shows no sign of diminishing. They may somehow get the executive back up and running but it will collapse again.
The divisions created by partition run too deep.
I used to think they could be fixed but I no longer think that way. The only way you will have normality on this island is to get rid of what caused the division and begin again.

People choose how they vote - they choose to be bound by the past and they choose which ideas are attractive to them.

If, in some Pavlovian fashion, they want to continue voting the same people in then can they be really that surprised when nothing changes?

Likewise, the argument that "partition made me do it" is specious - it's a convenient hook on which hang all issues. The Republic is on the other side of the partition is it not? And we seem to have done ok - we don't run around blaming "partition.....partition" on every ill.

And why should we begin again - the Republic has its issues but as countries go its a pretty good place.

markodaly · 09-01-2018 11:56AM

The biggest thing that the North can do is stop voting for the extreme parties like SF and the DUP. We need the SDLP and the UUP to be making electoral headway, which will come as people are realising that the DUP are not representing their interests and SF are too idealogical as well to move forward. The North needs more pragmatism.

breatheme · 09-01-2018 11:57AM

NI has also fallen behind the UK (and soon, Ireland) when it comes to gay marriage and abortion, so citizens living in NI don't have the same rights as those living in the rest of the UK.

That doesn't mean it's a failed state but it has fallen behind not only economically but socially.

If a UI were to happen tomorrow, would NI all of a sudden allow gay marriage?

Jawgap · 09-01-2018 11:59AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I didn't read anymore than this.

No you would not say that, you are flat out, when it suits, saying it is an economic sinkhole that you want nothing to do with because it is dysfunctional. :rolleyes:

Politically and economically its dysfunctional - any place running a 25% GDP deficit with politicians unwilling/unable to tackle such a phenomenon is dysfunctional.

From the point of view of the man/woman on the street, it's quite functional (except for the spasms that occasionally engulf certain areas during the summer) - schools, hospitals, police, transport, local government services, civic processes etc all run.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 12:04PM

Jawgap wrote: »

People choose how they vote - they choose to be bound by the past and they choose which ideas are attractive to them.

If, in some Pavlovian fashion, they want to continue voting the same people in then can they be really that surprised when nothing changes?

Likewise, the argument that "partition made me do it" is specious - it's a convenient hook on which hang all issues. The Republic is on the other side of the partition is it not? And we seem to have done ok - we don't run around blaming "partition.....partition" on every ill.

And why should we begin again - the Republic has its issues but as countries go its a pretty good place.

There is a very clear reason why the south moved on after partition. It's called Independence, we are in the middle of a series of commemorations of it.
By ignoring what was happening in the north we were able to build a country.
Is it a republic as envisaged by those who took control....that is a debate for another thread.

Denial of the fact that partition did not have effects that can still be seen today is all very well, but unless that is addressed, politics in northern Ireland is doomed.

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 12:06PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Politically and economically its dysfunctional - any place running a 25% GDP deficit with politicians unwilling/unable to tackle such a phenomenon is dysfunctional.

From the point of view of the man/woman on the street, it's quite functional (except for the spasms that occasionally engulf certain areas during the summer) - schools, hospitals, police, transport, local government services, civic processes etc all run.

When I outlined a strategy for fixing the public service, you said it couldn't be done.

Now you say it can be tackled. How do you think it should be tackled?

markodaly · 09-01-2018 12:09PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When I outlined a strategy for fixing the public service, you said it couldn't be done.

Now you say it can be tackled. How do you think it should be tackled?

If you want to connivence the North about a United Ireland, I do not think telling them that half the Public Service will lose their jobs is a good way of going about it.

Self Interests trumps all.

Jawgap · 09-01-2018 12:57PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When I outlined a strategy for fixing the public service, you said it couldn't be done.

Now you say it can be tackled. How do you think it should be tackled?

Actually, I didn't - I questioned how it would be paid for.

It's a relatively straightforward process to re-shape and reduce public services - as long as the public will exists and the money is available.

So, how would you pay for the redundancies, re-deployments and re-configuration?

As Von Moltke (the Elder) said - "No plan survives contact with enemy" - or to put in another way, as Tyson said "Everyone's got a strategy until they get punched in the mouth."

FrancieBrady · 09-01-2018 01:03PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Actually, I didn't - I questioned how it would be paid for.

It's a relatively straightforward process to re-shape and reduce public services - as long as the public will exists and the money is available.

So, how would you pay for the redundancies, re-deployments and re-configuration?

As Von Moltke (the Elder) said - "No plan survives contact with enemy" - or to put in another way, as Tyson said "Everyone's got a strategy until they get punched in the mouth."

Could you clarify for me? Can the PS be fixed or not in your opinion?

Costs of Irish unification.

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