47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

murphaph · 31-12-2017 05:11PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And you will 'accept' the ongoing toll from partition. And any violence accruing from a rejection by the south of a majority vote in the north.

Two can play the shlock horror 'accept' game. The 'have you stopped beating your wife' style question. Carry on.

The status quo is relatively peaceful. It's you that wants to upset the apple cart.

Avatar MIA · 31-12-2017 05:37PM

murphaph wrote: »

Hopefully. In that case of course the chit chat about a Brexit driven UI will cease.

The box has been open, and the curiosity can't be so easily put aside.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 05:37PM

murphaph wrote: »

The status quo is relatively peaceful. It's you that wants to upset the apple cart.

'Acceptable' levels eh? Very good.

C14N · 31-12-2017 06:27PM

murphaph wrote: »

So your answer is yes, you would accept some death and destruction on the streets of Dublin as an acceptable price of a united Ireland. That's all I need to know.

This is falsely treating "death and destruction" as inevitable and unstoppable though. And in any case, are you really saying you're willing to let paramilitary terrorists hold the country hostage for whatever decision-making they want?

DEFTLEFTHAND · 31-12-2017 06:32PM

What percentage of southerners want it?

I assume a referendum would have to take place in the Republic also.

C14N · 31-12-2017 06:46PM

DEFTLEFTHAND wrote: »

What percentage of southerners want it?

I assume a referendum would have to take place in the Republic also.

I don't know much about the reliability of the pollster but LucidTalk's recent poll indicated it had 60% support in the south. An Amarach Research poll found it was 49-22 for-against. A RedC poll from back in 2010 (i.e. long before Brexit made it seem like a real possibility) found that it was 57-22 for-against with 21% being undecided. A large number of undecideds is a common theme.

And yes, we would definitely need a referendum for it too. Although I would expect it to pass in all likelihood if it were ever to be taken. In general, support for a united Ireland has been fairly consistently strong in both the Republic and in mainland UK, the only place where people quite solidly wanted it to stay in the UK was in Northern Ireland.

blanch152 · 31-12-2017 09:06PM

C14N wrote: »

This is falsely treating "death and destruction" as inevitable and unstoppable though. And in any case, are you really saying you're willing to let paramilitary terrorists hold the country hostage for whatever decision-making they want?

Well, some people are willing to let paramilitary terrorists hold the country hostage for whatever decision-making they want, Here is one example:

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I answered you.
I would not be prepared to allow violence or the threat of it, to deter me from doing something to stop the cyclical violence in the country as a result of partition.

There was a paramilitary shooting just last night in northern Ireland.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/terrified-children-witness-belfast-paramilitary-shooting-1.3341944

This poster is prepared to let paramilitaries who don't like partition to dictate the future of the island. Violence is not inevitable. Partition doesn't cause violence, it is the evil people who commit violence who are responsible. Those who want to change lines on a map to stop violence are guilty of giving in to the psychopaths responsible for the violence.

We can live in peace with partition in place, this has been clearly demonstrated over the last twenty years.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 09:38PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, some people are willing to let paramilitary terrorists hold the country hostage for whatever decision-making they want, Here is one example:

This poster is prepared to let paramilitaries who don't like partition to dictate the future of the island. Violence is not inevitable. Partition doesn't cause violence, it is the evil people who commit violence who are responsible. Those who want to change lines on a map to stop violence are guilty of giving in to the psychopaths responsible for the violence.

We can live in peace with partition in place, this has been clearly demonstrated over the last twenty years.

There was a paramilitary shooting just last night on this island.

This poster wishes to remove the threat of that for all time on this island which has seen, paramilitaries, civilians, soldiers and security forces carry out killings.

Or maybe you too have 'acceptable' levels that you are happy with?

Sidey · 01-01-2018 12:11AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There was a paramilitary shooting just last night on this island.

This poster wishes to remove the threat of that for all time on this island which has seen, paramilitaries, civilians, soldiers and security forces carry out killings.

Or maybe you too have 'acceptable' levels that you are happy with?

It's blatantly obvious that the small group of fanatical partitionists on this thread have very ugly, pretty much full-on racist, views about any and all things northern. As long as any violence or killing is confined "up there" among the mad murderous barbarian savage Nordies they are perfectly content to pretend to one another that "up there" is as alien, foreign and far away as North Korea and "nothing to do with us".

As the saying goes, methinks they dost protest too much. It takes a special kind of willful ignorance to insist that somewhere a few miles up the road is on another planet, populated by an incomprehensible and irredeemably savage alien species.

eire4 · 01-01-2018 12:47AM

Sidey wrote: »

It's blatantly obvious that the small group of fanatical partitionists on this thread have very ugly, pretty much full-on racist, views about any and all things northern. As long as any violence or killing is confined "up there" among the mad murderous barbarian savage Nordies they are perfectly content to pretend to one another that "up there" is as alien, foreign and far away as North Korea and "nothing to do with us".

As the saying goes, methinks they dost protest too much. It takes a special kind of willful ignorance to insist that somewhere a few miles up the road is on another planet, populated by an incomprehensible and irredeemably savage alien species.

There probably is a certain amount of truth to what you say there very sadly. But thankfully if a referendum was to take place any time in the near to medium term future I cannot see it not passing and contrary to their wishful thinking there are a lot of Irish people who care.

01-01-2018 12:50AM

Red_Wake wrote: »

If they can't get over 50% support for a UI in the event of a hard Brexit, I don't know what it would take to get that magic 50%+1.

I assume hard brexit swells support for a UI significantly though, I may be wrong though.

That survey would have a portion of "Don't know" who would be the casting votes in any referendum.

More of those result types in other polls would have a call for a border poll spring up again

Junkyard Tom · 01-01-2018 12:51AM

Sidey wrote: »

It's blatantly obvious that the small group of fanatical partitionists on this thread have very ugly, pretty much full-on racist, views about any and all things northern.

I get the impression that it's not really a fantasy fear of unionist bombs or even the costs of the project but a deep-seated hatred of the idea of adding hundreds-of-thousands of voters to SF's ranks on an all-island basis.

It's no coincidence, in my view, that a couple of the most vehemently anti-UI posters have enormous numbers of posts critical of SF in threads concerning the party.

Sidey · 01-01-2018 12:52AM

eire4 wrote: »

There probably is a certain amount of truth to what you say there very sadly. But thankfully if a referendum was to take place any time in the near to medium term future I cannot see it not passing and contrary to their wishful thinking there are a lot of Irish people who care.

Ah yeah I'm well aware it's just bitter alienated online trolls, and the kind of nutter who gets a job scribbling in crayons for the Sindo, that actually Believes half the nonsense on these threads, and that they really are only a small minority of the population. It is a lot of fun deconstructing their hysterical and nonsensical partitionist arguments though

01-01-2018 12:52AM

LiamoSail wrote: »

We can't afford the North, it's a basket case economically. Reunification would require austerity on par with the post crash days coupled with significant increases in income tax etc. It's romantic notion but the shouldn't be considered without accounting for the accompanying security issues, likely Unionist campaigns, cuts in housing, health, education, infrastructure etc.

Ireland's not a utopia, but the last thing in the world a country like ours that try's to act like a normal functioning country needs is more Sinn Fein and the DUP

In a UI Sinn Fein becomes a government party, given that it will take so many seats in NI territory alone, coupled with its Republic TDs

Junkyard Tom · 01-01-2018 12:58AM

Deleted User wrote: »

In a UI Sinn Fein becomes a government party, given that it will take so many seats in NI territory alone

Not necessarily, FG/FF would compete in the north if they hadn't already merged. The SDLP and Labour would probably merge. SF could actually lose votes in the long run.

Sidey · 01-01-2018 01:04AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

In a UI Sinn Fein becomes a government party, given that it will take so many seats in NI territory alone

Not necessarily, FG/FF would compete in the north if they hadn't already merged. The SDLP and Labour would probably merge. SF could actually lose votes in the long run.

Yeah a UI is a whole new scenario and the entire political landscape and roster of parties might be totally unrecognisable from today 10-15 years in.
I've been saying for years that the DUP are essentially the Presbyterian wing of Fianna Fail. Brown envelopes, a casual attitude to appropriating taxpayers cash for their mates, dodgy property deals, a backwoods rural conservative core, a strong religious rump, a tendency to rely on "wrap the flag round me boys" when caught....they'll get along just fine in a UI

01-01-2018 01:12AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Not necessarily, FG/FF would compete in the north if they hadn't already merged. The SDLP and Labour would probably merge. SF could actually lose votes in the long run.

FG/FF would have to merge.
In the short to medium term they have no aparatus in NI to even begin to put candidates forward (never mind actually having supporters!)

Labour, in a merge with SDLP, will keep their current levels only I would imagine. So no loss for them but definitely no gains.

SF would have an immediate increase in seat numbers, within the first Dail election post UI so, yeah, unless FG/FF merge I can see massive gains for SF and then may the FSM have mercy on our noodly souls

Junkyard Tom · 01-01-2018 01:17AM

Deleted User wrote: »

SF would have an immediate increase in seat numbers, within the first Dail election post UI so, yeah, unless FG/FF merge I can see massive gains for SF

They would be offset somewhat by a probable DUP/UUP merge. I'm not sure what a post UI former-Unionist party would call itself and what its manifesto would be... to integrate all of Ireland into the UK?

01-01-2018 01:33AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They would be offset somewhat by a probable DUP/UUP merge. I'm not sure what a post UI former-Unionist party would call itself and what its manifesto would be... to integrate all of Ireland into the UK?

Except that they have nothing in the Republic.

Like it or not (not) Sinn Fein is the only All Ireland party

Sidey · 01-01-2018 01:46AM

This is all wild speculation of course, but personally, after a few election cycles when things settle down, personally I'd see
1) The rural conservative wings of FF, FG, SDLP and possibly some SF (Peadar Toibin types, perhaps) merging
1b) That group will have a loose arrangement with the DUP, sortof like the CDU/CSU set-up in Germany
2) Labour, the social-democrat liberal wing of the SDLP and possibly random sundry others from Greens, Alliance, Indos and minor parties
3) The ideologically right-wing pro-business free-market elements of FF, FG & UUP (plus yer Shane Ross-style Indos)
4) SF....who knows. Might morph into a standard social-democrat party, a bigger brother with a fraught relationship with group 2. Might splinter all over the place. Might embark on some radical new direction. They'll be a major force in the early years of a UI but in the long run it's impossible to say where they'll end up.

All IMHO, YMMV, etc

murphaph · 01-01-2018 01:49AM

Sidey wrote: »

It's blatantly obvious that the small group of fanatical partitionists on this thread have very ugly, pretty much full-on racist, views about any and all things northern. As long as any violence or killing is confined "up there" among the mad murderous barbarian savage Nordies they are perfectly content to pretend to one another that "up there" is as alien, foreign and far away as North Korea and "nothing to do with us".

As the saying goes, methinks they dost protest too much. It takes a special kind of willful ignorance to insist that somewhere a few miles up the road is on another planet, populated by an incomprehensible and irredeemably savage alien species.

To be honest northerners are different in many respects. You have a lot more in common with your unionist neighbours than your average southerner. It's hardly surprising after almost a century of partition.

Junkyard Tom · 01-01-2018 01:57AM

murphaph wrote: »

To be honest northerners are different in many respects.

1. Which northerners?
2. List the many respects.

Charles Babbage · 01-01-2018 02:21AM

murphaph wrote: »

Avatar MIA wrote: »

There's going to be a soft brexit, and the UK coming back into the EU in time once a Labour government gets a chance to go back to the people in a referendum once the penny (or pound more like) drops.

Hopefully. In that case of course the chit chat about a Brexit driven UI will cease.

A fairly soft Brexit is likely, with some additional special measures for NI, notably in relation to agriculture.
This will stabilise things a bit, but UK politics are in some disarray and people in NI have seen exactly how much concern the English has for their welfare. The UI agenda has been moved forward either way, the ideal situation would be that the special trade arrangements for NI would boost the economy somewhat and somewhat take the subvention off the table as an issue.

Sidey · 01-01-2018 02:46AM

murphaph wrote: »

To be honest northerners are different in many respects. You have a lot more in common with your unionist neighbours than your average southerner. It's hardly surprising after almost a century of partition.

See this is the sort of completely uninformed nonsense you keep spouting and why quite a few posters on this thread aren't taking you remotely seriously. This is just more of your ignorant borderline-racist mad stereotyping, You've clearly never been anywhere near the border, never spent any time in the north, don't actually know anyone, from any tradition, from the north.

For the record I grew up in Derry. Had family all over the island especially Dublin and Kerry - we holidayed every summer in Killorglin, Kerry. At 18 moved to Dublin to go to UCD. Spent about the next 17 years living and working all over the south but mostly in Dublin and Galway.

So when I say your views, and those of your small coterie of trenchant partitionists on these threads, are in no way representative of the views of the overwhelming majority of ordinary southerners, I know whereof I speak. You, on the other hand, plainly don't.

Junkyard Tom · 01-01-2018 03:20AM

I grew up in the north. I know there were busloads of people who went from about as far away as you can get from the border (Cork) to attend the funeral of Martin McGuinness.

There's far more all-Ireland solidarity with nationalists in the north than some would like to believe. The Irish media spent a few decades trying to suppress Irish nationalism and to their horror it's on the rise, especially with younger people who can ignore the anti-Nationalist/Republican print media for (dis)information.

We even have important Fine Gael politicians publicly expressing that they'd like to see a UI in their political lifetime with our Taoiseach saying that the Irish in the northeast will not be abandoned again.

I'd have laughed if someone would have predicted the above a couple of years ago. The times they are a-changing.

murphaph · 01-01-2018 11:22AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

1. Which northerners?
2. List the many respects.

Mostly it's the siege mentality and inability to understand the perspective of others. They are also easily riled up over trivial things.

The one side feels the need to be more British than the British. The other side feels the need to be more Irish than the Irish. It's a distinctly Northern Irish phenomenon that makes the two sides more like each other than the countries they cling to.

If Brexit is soft this whole UI talk will die down as the Catholics in the north's massive public service breathe a massive sigh of relief and continue voting SF but never intending to vote for unification.

FrancieBrady · 01-01-2018 12:35PM

murphaph wrote: »

Mostly it's the siege mentality and inability to understand the perspective of others. They are also easily riled up over trivial things.

The one side feels the need to be more British than the British. The other side feels the need to be more Irish than the Irish. It's a distinctly Northern Irish phenomenon that makes the two sides more like each other than the countries they cling to.

If Brexit is soft this whole UI talk will die down as the Catholics in the north's massive public service breathe a massive sigh of relief and continue voting SF but never intending to vote for unification.

'Northeners and Uber-Irish'. Two pejorative terms to describe your bias rather than anyone real. Media created cliches. Yes you have individual cases that fall into the cliche but you can find the Uber-British in D4 or the Uber-Irish just about anywhere on the island.

If Brexit is soft, northern Ireland is still in line to take a massive hit. A UI will be permanently on the agenda now thanks to the DUP.

Jayop · 01-01-2018 02:04PM

murphaph wrote: »

To be honest northerners are different in many respects. You have a lot more in common with your unionist neighbours than your average southerner. It's hardly surprising after almost a century of partition.

Lol this old chestnut again. The last stand for a roundly beaten debate.

blanch152 · 01-01-2018 09:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Except that they have nothing in the Republic.

Like it or not (not) Sinn Fein is the only All Ireland party

Not true.

People before Profit and the Green Party are also All-Ireland parties.

blanch152 · 01-01-2018 09:44PM

Sidey wrote: »

See this is the sort of completely uninformed nonsense you keep spouting and why quite a few posters on this thread aren't taking you remotely seriously. This is just more of your ignorant borderline-racist mad stereotyping, You've clearly never been anywhere near the border, never spent any time in the north, don't actually know anyone, from any tradition, from the north.

For the record I grew up in Derry. Had family all over the island especially Dublin and Kerry - we holidayed every summer in Killorglin, Kerry. At 18 moved to Dublin to go to UCD. Spent about the next 17 years living and working all over the south but mostly in Dublin and Galway.

So when I say your views, and those of your small coterie of trenchant partitionists on these threads, are in no way representative of the views of the overwhelming majority of ordinary southerners, I know whereof I speak. You, on the other hand, plainly don't.

The IRA campaign had an unintended side-effect. Northern Ireland became another place, a place where Southerners just didn't go anymore. A separation between North and South occurred, nearly as deep as that between nationalist and unionist. Demanding that we welcome you into a united Ireland will not close that separation.

47.9% of NI would back a United Ireland in the event of a 'hard Brexit'

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