Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 05:55PM #1

I think a fresh thread for this is needed.

Looks like this system will pack a punch and likely to have a greater impact on people than Storm Dylan.

It will likely be named in the morning.

EURO4 has it developing rapidly as it crosses Ireland with very strong winds aloft.

Hirlam

ECMWF 12z will be out momentarily.

Mod Note: Good call Weathercheck, have added the weather warnings to the opening post.

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

Update on Previous Warning

National Weather Warning

Orange Warning

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster and south Galway
Update on previous warning. Storm Eleanor will move in off the Atlantic later this afternoon and will move very quickly across the country this evening. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h., are expected.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:03
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 21:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
Update on previous warning. Southwest to west winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h., gusting 90 to 110 km/h., will develop later this afternoon and evening and will continue overnight and through Wednesday. This as result of Storm Eleanor. A period of stronger winds are expected for a short time later today and this evening. See orange warning for details.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 05:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 16:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 05:58PM

Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning
West to northwest winds backing south to southwest overnight will occasionally reach gale force this evening on coasts from Rossan point to Howth Head to Hook Head and on the Irish Sea, extending to all coastal waters overnight and tomorrow, with the potential of storm force winds along the west coast tomorrow afternoon.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 17:00

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 06:08PM

ECMWF is very bad. 70 knot gusts in Dublin region. 80 knot along west coast.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 06:12PM

Yea was thinking that this looks very strong in the SW initially late afternoon / early evening and some evidence for strong winds traversing the country later in the evening. Tricky one as it is deepening on its way across Ireland into the UK.

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 06:13PM

ECMWF going for 160kph gusts in exposed western areas.

A swathe of 120kph gusts extending across the centre of the country.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 06:16PM

Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 06:17PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wow. Upgrade to orange warning likely?

Possibly Red.

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 06:19PM

Weathercheck wrote: »

Possibly Red.

This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).

Storm 10 · 01-01-2018 06:28PM

Very stormy forecast there now from ME

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 06:30PM

I wonder when Eleanor will be named.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 06:31PM

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

km79 · 01-01-2018 06:32PM

****e the recycling bin is overflowing and is going out Tuesday night !

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 06:36PM

Storm 10 wrote: »

Very stormy forecast there now from ME

Which part of the country most at risk?

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 06:38PM

Crazy high seas developing

Limerick Docks

Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m

Shedbebreezy · 01-01-2018 06:39PM

GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin

ninebeanrows · 01-01-2018 06:41PM

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

GFS called last storm correctly. Doesn't make much of this. Gusts in the 50s miles per for Dublin

GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.

pad199207 · 01-01-2018 06:46PM

munsterlegend wrote: »

This seems to have sneaked up on us very slyly(I mean).

Yes and they usually pack the biggest punch!

Shedbebreezy · 01-01-2018 07:16PM

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS definitely did not call the last storm correctly! Not at all.

Yes it did for my location. Showed max gusts in the 50s mph. That's what it achieved. It kept downgrading it throughout the day. All the other models predicted gusts in the 70s for my location. It showed it to be a weaker affair. Highest it showed was 70s on the extreme North Coast around malin. Others showed higher gusts way inland. So it did 100%. The ECM showed gusts of almost 100mph on the coast the day of the storm. It massively over cooked it

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 07:35PM

Tonight's model runs will tell a lot.

GFS 12Z

sumtings · 01-01-2018 07:46PM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Crazy high seas developing

Limerick Docks

Tuesday 2nd January, 2018

LOW TIDE: 00:08 HEIGHT: 0.40m
HIGH TIDE: 06:27 HEIGHT: 6.30m
LOW TIDE: 12:35 HEIGHT: 0.20m
HIGH TIDE: 18:59 HEIGHT: 6.20m

That will be an interesting high tide tomorrow evening in Limerick.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 07:50PM

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, South Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Eleanor will quickly move across the country tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. West to southwest winds of mean speeds 65 to 80 km/h, gusting to 110 to 130 km/h, with damaging gusts are expected.

Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding also.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 19:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
West to Southwest winds of mean speeds 55 to 65 km/h, gusting to 90 to 110 km/h, will develop on Tuesday evening, continuing through Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is the potential for even stronger winds developing locally or a time on Tuesday evening, with damaging gusts.
Very high seas along Atlantic coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:Monday 01 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 17:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 21:00

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 08:02PM

Not the usual orange warning counties for the most part. No kerry cork or further up the north west.

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 08:08PM

Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

igCorcaigh · 01-01-2018 08:13PM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

...

So it has been named and the warning updated to Orange.

MJohnston · 01-01-2018 08:13PM

MTC mentioned a possible named storm on Thursday too - I think 3 in a week would be a record for the naming system, although obviously it does only go back 2 seasons.

squarecircles · 01-01-2018 08:15PM

It's hard to get a good storm in Mayo the last few years,the centre of these lows seem to always track over mayo or side step up to the northwest.

NollagShona · 01-01-2018 08:17PM

My heart is low, like the air pressure

Rougies · 01-01-2018 08:18PM

Interesting that Met É say "South Galway" in the warning. Maybe they've been reading all the complaining here!

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 08:18PM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Very fast moving storm and bear in mind it is deepening across the country so some unknowns, will come down to a nowcast.

Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2018 08:20PM

Going on those charts how are cork and kerry not in the warning?!

Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.

munsterlegend · 01-01-2018 08:21PM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Was wondering that myself, still time for upgrades.

Thought I was missing something

Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

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