Off Topic Thread 3.0

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

The polls certainly suggest that there would be no significant change. Despite the same polls showing that people who still vote Brexit believe that their government will make a balls of it.

It wouldn't need a major swing, I think they could probably win a 2nd referendum.

However it is political suicide. Any party who calls a 2nd referendum will ensure a major portion of the UK will never vote for them. They will be traitors in the North.

What they had negotiated for is essentially EEA membership right? This was then defeated in a Westminster vote?

Emilee Bitter Ginseng wrote: »

No that's not what the Commons defeated, that vote basically said parliament get the final say (as in they have to vote for) any final Brexit deal.

Which basically means that the hard-line Brexiteers could hold the whole thing to ransom and scupper any deal with the EU that they don't like. Since that would effectively end any deal done with the EU (there are two chances that amendments would come after such a vote) the end result would probably be an exit under WTO parameters.

The hardest Brexit possible essentially.

Edit: There may well be an election before then and that election could hinge totally on Brexit. Another referendum essentially if Corbyn finds the fence too uncomfortable in the meantime. :rolleyes:

Voting to remain in a second ref would be perceived by many to be rewarding May's government for their incompetence, and rewarding the EU for making things so difficult. Also, in the UK, referenda just aren't part of normal politics and I'd fear that their tendency to punish governments for unnecessary elections would very much wash over to what many will perceive as an unnecessary referendum. We saw what happened to the SNP for example, and they simply wanted a second Scottish referendum! For me, Bregret would need to be influencing the polls a lot more than it has, in order for me to be confident that the above factors can be overridden.

Maybe things would be different under a Labour government with a clear Parliamentary mandate, and strong campaign to remain led by Corbyn. But (a) I can't see May's Government collapsing if it hasn't already (b) there's really no guarantee that Labour would get in and (c) I still just don't trust Corbyn's supposed 'remain' stance, and how strongly he'd campaign for it. (Though a lot of that is down to pragmatism, given the very difficult distribution of Labour seats between strong Leave and Remain constituencies).

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Reviewers are way way more positive about the movie overall than I was. I think I would give it a 5/10 or 6/10 whereas its up in the mid-80s on metacritic and 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Absolutely no chance it will go down that well, I think it'll go down as the worst of the new movies, although miles better than the prequels because it was at least very entertaining.

I completely agree with this.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It wouldn't need a major swing, I think they could probably win a 2nd referendum.

However it is political suicide. Any party who calls a 2nd referendum will ensure a major portion of the UK will never vote for them. They will be traitors up North.

Fixed that

Up North = Hovis & Rugby League
In the North = Arlene and Soda Farls

Deleted User wrote: »

It's a really interesting one. If you wanted to sow chaos in the UK brexit is the ideal way to do that. The for and against sides with Brexit don't fall along typical party or voting lines. It makes it a bit of a perfect storm as people who are against don't want to seem *too* against it or they'll appear to lack nationalism.

Isn't there some evidence that the Russians had a murky hand in the pie on social media for just that reason?

Bazzo wrote: »

Corbyn is remain now? When did that happen? He's always been a euroskeptic

He's a politician. Above all, he wants to hurt the government and at worst he's a very soft Brexiteer.

Bazzo wrote: »

Corbyn is remain now? When did that happen? He's always been a euroskeptic

Since the beginning of campaigning for the referendum a couple of years ago.

Deleted User wrote: »

Eitherway, I disagree on the re-vote. I think the last election was a mandate against Brexit and I reckon if given a clear choice that Brexit would be resoundingly defeated now with so many of the lies having been shown as such.

The only avenue I can see to that vote however is for Labour to run on a platform of a second referendum and winning a General Election.

I'd be wary of drawing too much referendum conclusion on elections and vice-versa. Again going to Scotland, they rejected the Independence Referendum, then overwhelmingly voted in the SNP, then crucified the SNP for wanting a second referendum. Keep in mind also that the only party to overtly nail their colours to a Bremain mast (i.e., vote for us, we'll stop Brexit) were decimated in that same GE you mention (Lib Dems). Meanwhile Labour were successful in that election thanks to largely fudging Brexit.

Bazzo wrote: »

Corbyn is remain now? When did that happen? He's always been a euroskeptic

As this article points out:

Where has Corbyn been? On a journey, say those close by. A lifetime of instinctive “capitalist club” Euroscepticism has been shed. Passionate distress over Brexit from his young supporters and his trade union allies has brought him round. Besides, the facts have changed. His vague, abstract distaste for the EU has given way to facing the hard reality of what Brexit means: inflicting most harm on those he cares about most. If only those on the opposite benches were on the same reality-check journey.

But there's probably more pragmatism to fudging for as long as he can. Just to give you a picture of the Labour (and therefore Corbyn) dilemma, the top 5 English cities to vote Leave were:

Stoke - 69.4% (2/3 Labour MPs)
Hull - 67.6% (3/3 Labour MPs)
Wakefield - 66.4% (3/4 Labour MPs)
Wolverhampton - 62.6% (3/3 Labour MPs)
Sunderland - 61.3% (3/3 Labour MPs)

And the top 5 cities to vote remain:
Brighton - 68.6% (2/3 Labour MPs)
Bristol - 61.7% (4/6 Labour MPs)
Manchester - 60.4% (5/5 Labour MPs)
Greater London - 59.9% (49/73 Labour MPs)
Liverpool - 58.2% (5/5 Labour MPs)

Deleted User wrote: »

Terrific post Neil3030.

Only three likes.. tough crowd eh? :pac:

I just remembered something else - the UK country with the biggest Remain vote (Scotland - 62%) saw a huge swing in the GE, away from an overtly Remain party (SNP, down 21 seats) mostly towards the Tories (+12) of all people! So figure that one out!

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not really that strange. The referendum was a single issue, a GE is multiple issues.

Ah yeah, it just reads so funny to me. But it's fairly clear that the scots put their own independence issue above Brexit by the looks of things. The part I actually find most confusing is why the SNP were so successful in 2015, remained completely true to their purpose in pursuing a second independence referendum, and were then punished so severely in 2017. I guess the country underwent a profound change of heart?

Deleted User wrote: »

I think a lot of people bought into the idea that it was going to happen regardless and the strong the Government whip the stronger the deal would be.

It's the only thing I can figure to explain the swing.

I think the fact the Tories struggled despite this was a massive protest vote against Brexit.

I really believe or at least want to believe that a labour led remain campaign would be a significant success.

But there are Brexiteers in Labour who are just as set in their ways as the brexit wing of the Tories. For every David Davis there is a Jon Mann or Denis Skinner. Not to mention the leader of the party is a brexiteer in a very-very-slight-remainer clothing.

A lot of the Brexit constituencies up North are labour constituencies and while the party may take a principled stance, the MPs from those areas will know that speaking out in favour would scupper their chances of re-election.