The 8th amendment(Mod warning in op)

Zubeneschamali · 13-12-2017 01:15PM

baylah17 wrote: »

i think it just a case of repealing the amendment and the Dail will legislate.

The Citizen's Assembly said that may not work, that having established a Right to Life in the constitution, simply removing references to it does not necessarily erase it. The Courts might rule that it is still there but unenumerated.

pilly · 13-12-2017 01:17PM

munchkin_utd wrote:

Will it pass?

Quite deceptive in your posting there. That poll was up to 22 weeks, not 12.

baylah17 · 13-12-2017 01:19PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Citizen's Assembly said that may not work, that having established a Right to Life in the constitution, simply removing references to it does not necessarily erase it. The Courts might rule that it is still there but unenumerated.

One can never second guess the Supreme Court but based upon previous cases (The X Case and the C case) the Court would I think be unlikely to block the will of the people, certainly the current Court based on its composition would be highly unlikely to, especially since women already have the unenumerated right to bodily integrity as espoused in Ryan V The Attorney General.

Zubeneschamali · 13-12-2017 01:22PM

baylah17 wrote: »

One can never second guess the Supreme Court

The Citizens Assembly said why take the chance? Replace the 8th with an explicit statement that the Oireachteas may legislate.

Chips Lovell · 13-12-2017 01:25PM

Most recent poll suggests it will pass. But the campaign isn't really in full swing.

Asked about the prospect of the referendum on the Eighth Amendment next year, 62 per cent said they would vote in favour of changing the Constitution to allow the Oireachtas to legislate for greater access to abortion, the poll finds

.

Zubeneschamali · 13-12-2017 01:35PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

But the campaign isn't really in full swing.

I don't think a campaign will change many minds on this one.

The proceedings of the Citizens Assembly and the Oireachteas Committee do seem to have changed minds, but they were sat down with an opportunity to listen and ask questions of experts. This is rather different from the screaming and yelling we can expect in a campaign.

jackofalltrades · 13-12-2017 01:48PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

Most recent poll suggests it will pass. But the campaign isn't really in full swing.

.

That wording is quite vague though, previous polls that I've seen have showed support for similar levels of liberalisation to be in a minority.
IMO they're being too ambitious.

professore · 13-12-2017 01:51PM

baylah17 wrote: »

i think it just a case of repealing the amendment and the Dail will legislate.

Whatever my views on the amendment itself I find it quite shocking that an amendment to the Constitution that was voted for by the people at the time can be rescinded by an act of the Dail. Surely this is not the case? It would open the door to a future leader *cough* Mary Lou *cough* to throw out chunks of the Constitution wholesale and set herself as Supreme Leader.

PopePalpatine · 13-12-2017 01:53PM

professore wrote: »

Whatever my views on the amendment itself I find it quite shocking that an amendment to the Constitution that was voted for by the people at the time can be rescinded by an act of the Dail. Surely this is not the case?

Nope, the Dail doesn't have the power to overwrite the Constitution.

Zubeneschamali · 13-12-2017 01:53PM

professore wrote: »

Whatever my views on the amendment itself I find it quite shocking that an amendment to the Constitution that was voted for by the people at the time can be rescinded by an act of the Dail. Surely this is not the case? It would open the door to a future leader *cough* Mary Lou *cough* to throw out chunks of the Constitution wholesale and set herself as Supreme Leader.

No, baylah17 means the referendum would simply delete the 8th, and then the Dail would be free to legislate.

professore · 13-12-2017 01:55PM

Howard Tasteless Bank wrote: »

Had pro-life canvassers around my neck of the woods last night. Passed them on the way to the shop, which is about 200 metres from my house, gathered at the top of the road in their very snazzy hi vis Love Both gear. They'd already been and gone from my door by the time I got back, no sign of them along the rest of the road, guess nobody was very keen to talk to them Apparently their opening line was "Good evening, are you pro-abortion?"

Being somewhat strict on the criteria I think are valid for abortion myself, and not religious whatsoever, I think the Pro Life crowd are the best campaigners for the Pro Choice side as they are all a bunch of loonies I wouldn't want to be seen dead with. I can see the arguments from both sides. Having said that some of the more extreme Pro Choice people don't cover themselves in glory either.

NuMarvel · 13-12-2017 02:19PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think a campaign will change many minds on this one.

The proceedings of the Citizens Assembly and the Oireachteas Committee do seem to have changed minds, but they were sat down with an opportunity to listen and ask questions of experts. This is rather different from the screaming and yelling we can expect in a campaign.

The screaming and yelling is a feature of TV debates, but there's more to a referendum campaign that TV debates. It's be door to door canvassing and people talking to friends and family that will prompt the general public to ask questions and to inform themselves.

Grayson · 13-12-2017 02:43PM

NuMarvel wrote: »

The screaming and yelling is a feature of TV debates, but there's more to a referendum campaign that TV debates. It's be door to door canvassing and people talking to friends and family that will prompt the general public to ask questions and to inform themselves.

And a ridiculous amount of posters. Not that the posters will do anything more than irritate people but there will be feck loads.

NuMarvel · 13-12-2017 03:01PM

Grayson wrote: »

And a ridiculous amount of posters. Not that the posters will do anything more than irritate people but there will be feck loads.

And now all I'm wondering is how bad the No side posters are going to be. They'll probably make the anti-marriage equality posters look positively delightful!

Larbre34 · 13-12-2017 03:16PM

munchkin_utd wrote: »

an amazing turn of events, from removing a pesky clause in the constitution that stops doctors making a medical decision in the interest of a mother, to straight abortion on demand

Will it pass? Polls say it wont.

I too am very surprised at the likely outcome from the committee, i.e. a pretty liberal regime in totality. But then its easy for the Committee to make strong recommendations to appear ballsy, but the cabinet will have to take account of what would actually pass in the Oireachtas.

To quote Dr Michael Harty TD, he said he believed there would be a repeal of the Eighth Amendment, however, he cautioned that if the legislation underpinning what the parameters of the termination will be - either too radical or too conservative - there will be a possibility that a referendum might fail.

Hotblack Desiato · 13-12-2017 03:27PM

That's a pretty stupid line to take as he must be aware any Bill published along with the referendum proposal is only that, a bill, with no guarantee the Oireachtas will pass it or that a future Oireachtas won't significantly amend it.

People should vote purely on the constitutional question being put to them, not a non-binding political promise.

Irish Times poll last weekend is 62:26 for:against unconditional repeal.That's well over two to one.

Billy86 · 13-12-2017 04:05PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think a campaign will change many minds on this one.

The proceedings of the Citizens Assembly and the Oireachteas Committee do seem to have changed minds, but they were sat down with an opportunity to listen and ask questions of experts. This is rather different from the screaming and yelling we can expect in a campaign.

A strong campaign is going to be very helpful here - it made a huge difference in the SSM referendum, and while people are very entrenched on abortion the feeling was somewhat similar for that one back in 2015. More over though, a good campaign is going to be hugely important in swatting aside the constant barrage of lies coming from the United States pro-lifers, which was an understated but vital part of what they did during the SSM lead up.

Chips Lovell · 13-12-2017 04:07PM

Billy86 wrote: »

More over though, a good campaign is going to be hugely important in swatting aside the constant barrage of lies coming from the United States pro-lifers, which was an understated but vital part of what they did during the SSM lead up.

You mean SSM doesn't open the way to polygamy and marrying blood relatives? Damn, that's the only reason I voted for it.

pq0n1ct4ve8zf5 · 13-12-2017 04:12PM

Billy86 wrote: »

A strong campaign is going to be very helpful here - it made a huge difference in the SSM referendum, and while people are very entrenched on abortion the feeling was somewhat similar for that one back in 2015. More over though, a good campaign is going to be hugely important in swatting aside the constant barrage of lies coming from the United States pro-lifers, which was an understated but vital part of what they did during the SSM lead up.

They're already getting going on social media with sponsored ads and pages, nice fake news stylee. Staying away from the words pro-life though, it's things like Get The Truth Out, Students For Balance etc. Plenty of people seeing straight through them and commenting, but I'd wager that the clued in and digital media savvy aren't the target audience.

Zubeneschamali · 13-12-2017 04:14PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

You mean SSM doesn't open the way to polygamy and marrying blood relatives?

Well, I'm married to my little dog now, so there's that.

Hotblack Desiato · 13-12-2017 04:46PM

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Irish Times poll last weekend is 62:26 for:against unconditional repeal.That's well over two to one.

Actually I think the question was whether to change the constitution to allow greater abortion access. Not necessarily full repeal.

It seems the IT are determined to ask a different, oddly-worded, question every time they have a poll :rolleyes:

Larbre34 · 13-12-2017 04:57PM

Howard Tasteless Bank wrote: »

They're already getting going on social media with sponsored ads and pages, nice fake news stylee. Staying away from the words pro-life though, it's things like Get The Truth Out, Students For Balance etc. Plenty of people seeing straight through them and commenting, but I'd wager that the clued in and digital media savvy aren't the target audience.

No matter, those they want to convince wont be on SM anyway. SM will do them more harm than good over these coming months. Indepth fact checks, more donation investigation, personal histories, anything at all really. It may be more scrutiny than the presumptive 'Yes' side will experience, but such is the nature of things. The electoral commission have no reigns on SM.

pq0n1ct4ve8zf5 · 13-12-2017 05:09PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

No matter, those they want to convince wont be on SM anyway. SM will do them more harm than good over these coming months. Indepth fact checks, more donation investigation, personal histories, anything at all really. It may be more scrutiny than the presumptive 'Yes' side will experience, but such is the nature of things. The electoral commission have no reigns on SM.

They don't have to convince people that keeping the amendment is something they're strongly in favour of, just scare them into doubting removing it. Misinformation, scaremongering, pettifogging, and the like will be the tactics and alongside the well known mainstream pro-life organisations there'll be a rash of "we're not a pro-life organisation" organisations popping up pushing the agenda more subtly. And social media is the ideal arena for that.

It's gratifying that they have to resort to such low tactics in a way but we've all seen, over the past 18 months, the damage that can be done by people half reading Facebook links that they kind of agree with and seem like legitimate news.

Complacency is an unaffordable luxury for the next six months. This is not in the bag by a very very long shot.

LirW · 13-12-2017 05:20PM

I think now is the time to bring the focus from the Pro-choice side on the poor early pregnancy care that's tied directly to the 8th. The way women are treated that experience miscarriage is disgraceful. Also the blunt refusal in the public care to scan women before 12 weeks, which is problematic, because there you can see if there are problems like Fallopian pregnancy and can intervene asap or simply an embryo that's not developing. Women have to wait up to two weeks for treatment and removal of the dead fetus.
This is pretty poor care in the developed world.

It's not only about abortion, it's also about how women that do not have the rosy start in a pregnancy are treated. There is so much more in direct link with the 8th than abortion itself. And I think this needs to be on display a good bit more.

rainbow kirby · 13-12-2017 05:23PM

LirW wrote: »

It's not only about abortion, it's also about how women that do not have the rosy start in a pregnancy are treated. There is so much more in direct link with the 8th than abortion itself. And I think this needs to be on display a good bit more.

Parents For Choice and AIMS Ireland do a lot of work on this.

LirW · 13-12-2017 05:31PM

Quick google tells me that the Parents of choice - FB group has only a bit over 3000 likes, which is pretty slim, taken into account that every local buy and sell group has bazillion members. This needs to be pushed in the absolute spotlight for a good pro choice campaign imo.
This campaign can't continue with 2 extreme sites screaming at each other and the louder one wins. A bit more tactic please.

Mint Sauce · 13-12-2017 05:42PM

Whilst I am all for abortion in exceptional circumstances (fatal fetal abnormalities, rape, incest, etc), and not for abortion on demand but would respect the decisions of mothers/parents in them circumstances, todays turn of events do make me feel slightly uncomfortable.

If the Government do go ahead with a change in legislation, that includes demand up to 12 weeks, not sure I could vote yes.

Odhinn · 13-12-2017 05:45PM

LirW wrote: »

I think now is the time to bring the focus from the Pro-choice side on the poor early pregnancy care that's tied directly to the 8th. The way women are treated that experience miscarriage is disgraceful. Also the blunt refusal in the public care to scan women before 12 weeks, which is problematic, because there you can see if there are problems like Fallopian pregnancy and can intervene asap or simply an embryo that's not developing. Women have to wait up to two weeks for treatment and removal of the dead fetus.
This is pretty poor care in the developed world.

It's not only about abortion, it's also about how women that do not have the rosy start in a pregnancy are treated. There is so much more in direct link with the 8th than abortion itself. And I think this needs to be on display a good bit more.

Why, might I ask?

pq0n1ct4ve8zf5 · 13-12-2017 05:49PM

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Whilst I am all for abortion in exceptional circumstances (fatal fetal abnormalities, rape, incest, etc), and not for abortion on demand but would respect the decisions of mothers/parents in them circumstances, todays turn of events do make me feel slightly uncomfortable.

If the Government do go ahead with a change in legislation, that includes demand up to 12 weeks, not sure I could vote yes.

If it's a vote on repeal/retain and leaves the legislation out completely could you vote for it?

On demand abortions up to 12 weeks are already happening, at home, with no medical supervision btw. Or over in the UK or Netherlands for those who can afford it.

Your conscience has to be your guide of course but really have a think about if you're ok with the horrendous things that have happened in Ireland over the past ten years because of the 8th.

munchkin_utd · 13-12-2017 05:51PM

Odhinn wrote: »

Why, might I ask?

my belief was that its a cost / benefit equation, and once you reach 12 weeks then its a viable pregnancy so it makes little sense to scan earlier when its presumed your plan is to go to term.

with abortion on demand, there may be now a reason to have earlier scans seeing as there'll be the 12 week limit as the end date to get rid of the baby should it be defective.

The 8th amendment(Mod warning in op)

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