Bitcoin Futures

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 1:12pm #1

In twelve hours the Bitcoin Futures market will go "live" on CBOE.
I don't know whether this will damp the bitcoin price or whether it will be an architecture that will inflate it. A sizeable number of people believe that the Wall St spivs and institutions will drive up the price beforehand and then dump it whilst simultaneously taking out Short futures contracts on CBOE. A double-win. Others believe that the bitcoin exchange rate is strong enough to withstand this. I'm not too sure.
What I do expect, however, is that there will be wild volatility starting around midnight our time, and that this volatility will last for a few days at least. Maybe the best move would be to unlock our nano's and trezor's, and put our bitcoin on the exchange ready to pull the trigger if necessary?

Interesting times ahead, for sure.

KilOit · 10-12-2017 8:21pm

i pulled 20% to fiat, it amounts to my starting amount, other than that i'll sit on my hands.they do have the funds to pump it then short it

Wombatman · 10-12-2017 8:47pm

I'm betting on a boost to altcoins as those invested in bitcoin will (hopefully) seek to diversify and reduce exposure to any possible negative impacts of Bitcoin index futures trading.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 10:04pm

KilOit wrote: »

i pulled 20% to fiat, it amounts to my starting amount,

I've trickled 50% of mine to fiat during the course of day. I might convert more nearer the 11:00pm deadline.
I do think we're seeing the "pump" element being carried out over the past 5 hours -- up by around $2,000. If it is the precursor to a dump and futures Shorting, I just don't know. But I'm happy to sit on the sidelines during this momentous happening. If it does drop significantly I'll buy back in. On the other hand, if it continues to rise I'll live with that; I've made a serious good profit from bitcoin anyway.

What will be, will be.

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 10:21pm

I fecked up a BTC trade on Thursday so I'm only getting near break even now. Might wait a few more hours so.

As to where the last 12 hours was a pump, I doubt it, it's in line with increases that have happened before.

Price is already volatile on GDAX. Planning to get out of BTC entirely after this trade (I'm not a HODLer).

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 10:32pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

As to where the last 12 hours was a pump, I doubt it, it's in line with increases that have happened before.

Except that previous increases were all part of an upward trend.
This one over the past six hours has followed a period of lower Lows and lower Highs. I.E., a reversal of a steady downward trend.
I just dunno what, if anything, will happen over the next couple of days. The fear of the "Shorters" and what they might do to the btc price might be all unjustified FUD. We shall see. I'm staying up late tonight.

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 10:36pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

I'm staying up late tonight.

Yep, me too. Could get a bargain.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 10:42pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

Yep, me too. Could get a bargain.

Yeah, only IF it does prove to be a manipulated Short after all, I don't know what price to buy back in at. (I'ld hate to buy back at, say, $11,000 and then watch the price dip all the way down to $8,000).

Maybe best to wait for a day until the dust settles?

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 10:54pm

Oooooh, has it started ?
Down $700 in the last ten minutes?

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 10:55pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

Yeah, only IF it does prove to be a manipulated Short after all, I don't know what price to buy back in at. (I'ld hate to buy back at, say, $11,000 and then watch the price dip all the way down to $8,000).
Maybe best to wait for a day until the dust settles?

Like you said, it's hard to know. I'm itching to break even on my last trade so I'm tempted to spend the next few hours chart watching, but I do have a sell order set anyway to do that for me.

I suspect waiting a day might be no bad thing. It's only Gemini doing the shorting after all, not biggies like GDAX or Poloniex.

On another note, one thing that's starting to bother me is Bitcoin transaction speed. That is going to seriously hinder expansion in the future.

Edit: Yep, the volatility has started it seems. I suspect this is just people getting worried rather than actual investors.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 10:57pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

Like you said, it's hard to know. I'm itching to break even on my last trade

What went wrong on your last trade, mate?

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 11:01pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

It's only Gemini doing the shorting after all, not biggies like GDAX or Poloniex.

No, it's the Chicago Board Options Exchange that is providing the Bitcoin futures market. They -- the CBOE -- will be taking the bitcoin base price from the live Gemini exchange.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 11:03pm

I don't know about you fella's, but Bitstamp is getting unworkable under the weight of trades at the moment. The volume is huge; people trying to get out?
My last Sell order is not getting processed even though it is under the spot price.

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 11:06pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

What went wrong on your last trade, mate?

A stupid FOMO. LTCEUR looked like a bargain so I bought in. I got spooked when it moved ONE FECKING EURO down, dumped the lot and bought into BTCEUR at €14500. What a fecking stupid move.

I then watched LTC go to the moon. Arrgh!

Anyway, I went back to the info sources I learned my trading from (Quickfingers Luc, he gives the info for free) and learned a lot more. Turns out I'd been doing it wrong all along.

Next coins I trade will be:

LTCEUR
NEOETH
XRPEUR

Another day, another opportunity. Trying hard to trade like a pro.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 11:10pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

A stupid FOMO. LTCEUR looked like a bargain so I bought in. I got spooked when it moved ONE FECKING EURO down, dumped the lot and bought into BTCEUR at €14500. What a fecking stupid move.

I then watched LTC go to the moon. Arrgh!

Oh no, a double-whammy.

The worst possible scenario. Consolation, tho', is that you learn from these kinds of incidents and come out the wiser.

pro_gnostic_8 · 10-12-2017 11:13pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

I don't know about you fella's, but Bitstamp is getting unworkable under the weight of trades at the moment.

Yep, officially crashed now. :mad:
It's gonna be an eventful night across the world tonight starting in less than an hour. (At least I THINK it is 11:00 pm our time. Maybe 12:00, I don't know if the U.S has Daylight Saving Time?).

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 11:18pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

Yep, officially crashed now. :mad:
It's gonna be an eventful night across the world tonight starting in less than an hour. (At least I THINK it is 11:00 pm our time. Maybe 12:00, I don't know if the U.S has Daylight Saving Time?).

Google says 1800 Chicago time is 0000 our time.

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 11:25pm

Now debating whether to get the fuck out of Dodge now, sell my BTC and run to the hills. Or wait.

Arrgh, emotion, it's a pain in the arse!

Shauny2010 · 10-12-2017 11:39pm

Plenty of weak holders have been selling over the last few days and again over the last few hours.
As for the futures market, I think its gonna be a none event for now as many will stand back and see how it operates. Bitcoin is an unknown beast to them, they have been told this, and know shorting it could Bankrupt them in minutes if a wall of money could be ready to start flooding in again. They need more Bitcoin than they have to control the market. I don't think the Whales and Miners will let them get control that easily

GreeBo · 10-12-2017 11:44pm

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

No, it's the Chicago Board Options Exchange that is providing the Bitcoin futures market. They -- the CBOE -- will be taking the bitcoin base price from the live Gemini exchange.

Just to point out to everyone, as I only recently learnt this myself, futures market doesn't typically involve anyone buying or selling the underlying asset. Balances are typically settled in fiat.
So is very hard to say what impact it will have on the price since there is no associated volume.

Now ETFs on the other hand....

Shauny2010 · 10-12-2017 11:44pm

What would crash Bitcoin was if that fooker Ver and his goons were the ones buying up all the Bitcoin over the last few weeks in a bid to destroy Bitcoin so that the "Real" Bitcoin prevails

The One Doctor · 10-12-2017 11:54pm

Feck it, I'll leave the sell order where it is.

GreeBo · 11-12-2017 12:00am

As few a 1000 people hold the vast majority of bitcoin, and they probably mostly know a bunch of each other.

I'm not convinced wall street well play that game.

The One Doctor · 11-12-2017 12:02am

Holy **** the price just shot up.

Autochange · 11-12-2017 12:02am

Unfortunately my Sepa transfer has only gone to Coinbase now so im waiting for acc verification so i cab withdraw. Would i be right in saying i can just sell my coins if i wanted to onto my on site my Euro wallet but cant withdraw anything until the sepa is sorted?
Basically a way of holding my funds?

Sorry if that seems like a noob question but iv been just sitting on the coins and not actually used the sell/ withdraw function yet!!

The One Doctor · 11-12-2017 12:05am

Autochange wrote: »

Unfortunately my Sepa transfer has only gone to Coinbase now so im waiting for acc verification so i cab withdraw. Would i be right in saying i can just sell my coins if i wanted to onto my on site my Euro wallet but cant withdraw anything until the sepa is sorted?
Basically a way of holding my funds?

Sorry if that seems like a noob question but iv been just sitting on the coins and not actually used the sell/ withdraw function yet!!

That's right. It's fine, it just takes time.

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 12:08am

Well, it's has just started on CBOE.
Bloomberg are covering it live on their TV channel.

LOL, the official live-prices website has just crashed.

The One Doctor · 11-12-2017 12:12am

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

Well, it's has just started on CBOE.
Bloomberg are covering it live on their TV channel.

LOL, the official live-prices website has just crashed.

Well what do you know, Google was wrong. Anyway, it's moving the price up.

Autochange · 11-12-2017 12:17am

The One Doctor wrote: »

That's right. It's fine, it just takes time.

Great.
Thank you for replying

The One Doctor · 11-12-2017 12:20am

I get the impression that a lot of smart people bought at the recent crack to €11200 and now they're getting out with a nice profit, preventing the price from rising too fast.

Anyway, I'm going to bed. My sell order will either be filled or not.

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 12:32am

ROFL, the first liquidation on CBOE.
Someone had a Short for the value of $2.3Million liquidated. He lost 200K. :pac::pac::pac:

https://twitter.com/BitmexRekt/status/939993657121431554

The One Doctor · 11-12-2017 12:33am

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

ROFL, the first liquidation on CBOE.
Someone had a Short for the value of $2.3Million liquidated. He lost 200K. :pac::pac::pac:

https://twitter.com/BitmexRekt/status/939993657121431554

Arrgh. Makes my FOMO blunder seem a bit tame.

highgiant1985 · 11-12-2017 12:34am

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

ROFL, the first liquidation on CBOE.
Someone had a Short for the value of $2.3Million liquidated. He lost 200K. :pac::pac::pac:

https://twitter.com/BitmexRekt/status/939993657121431554

someone bet 2.3 million that Bitcoin would go down and it went up. ouch!

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 12:36am

highgiant1985 wrote: »

someone bet 2.3 million that Bitcoin would go down and it went up. ouch!

Yep, precisely.

highgiant1985 · 11-12-2017 12:37am

pro_gnostic_8 wrote: »

Yep, precisely.

thanks. I'm newbie to bitcoins it's fun to follow even if you don't have much in it. plenty of Highs and Lows!

Autochange · 11-12-2017 12:46am

I looked at that twitter link.

I dont understand it at all! for example: liquidated short on XBTUSD: Buy 106,207 @ 15328 &#55357;&#56495;&#55357;&#56613;⚡ ~ Triple kill ~ tis only a flesh wound

To me this looks like someone spent 106,207 dollars worth @ 15328 per coin. Is that correct or am i looking like a dope? Triple kill? wtf is going on!

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 1:15am

Your example is just one of the many liquidations that have ( by now) happened.
The example I posted was the first liquidation on CBOE. He bet $2M that the price would go down. But it went up and he lost the difference between the price he Shorted to and the current price. He lost $200,000.
He could be considered unlucky because the price at which he got liquidated was exceeded for only a short period of time and then went down.

Still, its nice to see these Wall St spivs getting hurt. A lot of them are already being burned by their Shorts it would seem.

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 1:19am

Still, for every Short to be confirmed there has to be somebody else on the other side of the bet.
So the person who took on that particular futures contract mentioned WON $200,000 ( went Long). Kudo's to him; he made the price of a Lambo for two minutes work and having balls of steel.

Wombatman · 11-12-2017 2:10am

What is the duration of those contracts? Like an hour?

Total degenerate gambling.

thierry14 · 11-12-2017 2:45am

Up to 16.5k now

Amazing times we live in

Wombatman · 11-12-2017 8:55am

Futures smutures.

Elessar · 11-12-2017 10:01am

Damnit I was going to buy some more yesterday but held off thinking the price would drop with the futures starting

Bah humbug, think I'll just buy anyway (and watch it tumble in price right after I do :pac: )

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 10:41am

thierry14 wrote: »

Up to 16.5k now

Amazing times we live in

Indeed we are in amazing times.
Bitcoin's resilience and strength in the face of the introduction of Futures last night has surprised a lot of people. It swatted away the Shorting by naysayers and doubters who were betting large sums against it.
The next big one is the CME futures on the 18th. If Bitcoin remains as buoyant against that as it did last night against the CBOE, then, really there is no limit as to how high it could go. The previously outlandish forecasts that we laughed at don't look that outlandish now.

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 10:43am

Elessar wrote: »

Damnit I was going to buy some more yesterday but held off thinking the price would drop with the futures starting

I sold 80% of my bitcoin yesterday thinking the same.

Shauny2010 · 11-12-2017 11:06am

I'm hodling till the ETFs get going. All those pension funds that will be looking to add 0.1% of the pot to crytpto amounts to an absolute Ocean of money

Wombatman · 11-12-2017 11:12am

Shauny2010 wrote: »

I'm hodling till the ETFs get going. All those pension funds that will be looking to add 0.1% of the pot to crytpto amounts to an absolute Ocean of money

Any launch date for big US Bitcoin ETFs?

needhelpguy · 11-12-2017 11:34am

Wombatman wrote: »

Any launch date for big US Bitcoin ETFs?

None have been approved yet but a lot of people are expecting approval in 2018.

Wombatman · 11-12-2017 11:46am

needhelpguy wrote: »

None have been approved yet but a lot of people are expecting approval in 2018.

What about this one?
https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/

Amirani · 11-12-2017 5:08pm

Wombatman wrote: »

What is the duration of those contracts? Like an hour?

Total degenerate gambling.

No, they're mainly 3 month futures contracts going on BTC I think.

Liquidations happen when the margin pool isn't able to meet the cost of a margin call against the marked-to-market position of the contract.

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 6:55pm

Futures contracts are distinctly organised into monthly, tri-monthly, six-monthly, or annual commitments.
The Futures contract mentioned earlier was an F8 contract. A Futures contract is designated as "XBT XY" where "X" is the month of settlement and "Y" is the year of settlement. Thus, this particular $2.3Million contract was due for settlement in 2018-January, but the guy who Shorted at 11:00pm last night was busted two minutes into the contract at 11:02.
(XBT is the ISO symbol ticker for BTC as the "B" label is already previously designated to something else. GXBT is the settlement price -- the prevailing spot price on the day of settlement on the Gemini exchange).

pro_gnostic_8 · 11-12-2017 6:57pm

Monthly Contract Codes

Bitcoin Futures

Comments