Brexit discussion thread II

ancapailldorcha · 04-12-2017 12:47PM

GLaDOS wrote: »

I assume this means there will be some sort of sea border between NI and mainland Britain so?

I think so. How it'll square with the DUP is another story. May might finally show some degree of strength and threaten another GE which risks putting pro-United Ireland Jeremy Corbyn in charge.

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 12:49PM

Ugh. Just breaking down this alleged text, it makes no sense and is a serious can-kick.

“In the absence of agreed solutions

Well... aren't you (the UK) supposed to be putting forward a solution that we're going to consider agreeing to?

the UK will ensure

This would read so as to indicate that it means that the UK won't tax goods entering NI and will not conduct any border checks going into NI; but there is no indication that this would be agreed to from the EU the other way around (i.e. taxation/duty on goods from NI entering Ireland (the EU) or requirement to check passports (etc.)

This would also seem to fly entirely in the face of two of the major reasons for Brexit... migration into UK and the single market.

that there continues to be [continued regulatory alignment with] those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA.”

...whatever that means!?

04-12-2017 12:49PM

How would say CAP funding work in the north in a scenario like that?
Would the UK government have to maintain the various schemes?

Panrich · 04-12-2017 12:52PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ugh. Just breaking down this alleged text, it makes no sense and is a serious can-kick.

Well... aren't you (the UK) supposed to be putting forward a solution that we're going to consider agreeing to?

This would read so as to indicate that it means that the UK won't tax goods entering NI and will not conduct any border checks going into NI; but there is no indication that this would be agreed to from the EU the other way around (i.e. taxation/duty on goods from NI entering Ireland (the EU) or requirement to check passports (etc.)

This would also seem to fly entirely in the face of two of the major reasons for Brexit... migration into UK and the single market.

...whatever that means!?

I think that the part you quoted refers to a scenario of a hard Brexit whereby the UK guarantees that in the absence of a deal with the EU, they will still ensure that NI remains compliant with EU standards.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 12:53PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

I was about to ask Freidian what that meant but he failed me

So in layman's terms, what does that mean for any agreement?

It means, probably, that the UK has blinked and that Brexit talks can now proceed to phase II.

GLaDOS wrote: »

I assume this means there will be some sort of sea border between NI and mainland Britain so?

Actually, not necessarily. According to the RTE report, the proposed text says that "there will be no divergence of the rules covering the EU single market and customs union on the island of Ireland post Brexit". It says nothing about what the situation will be in GB. So this leave it open to the to maintain convergence throughout the UK, or in NI only, or some combination of the two approaches - ie. on some issues like maybe agriculture, EU regulatory rules will be matched throughout the UK, but on others only in NI.

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 12:54PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think so. How it'll square with the DUP is another story. May might finally show some degree of strength and threaten another GE which risks putting pro-United Ireland Jeremy Corbyn in charge.

I wonder what the legal basis would be for border checks within the UK?

Panrich · 04-12-2017 12:57PM

This is also being reported now by the leader of the greens in the EU Philippe Lamberts

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 12:57PM

From Sky's live blog:

It seems diplomats have found appropriate language in #Brexit ‘Joint Report’, even on Ireland issue - but suggestions are it effectively means N.Ireland remains in Customs Union; border shifts to Irish Sea. DUP won’t like that. They prop @theresa_may up. At w/e @DUPleader said: https://t.co/4GJu0MgME8

Anybody heard anything from the DUP yet?

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 12:57PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I wonder what the legal basis would be for border checks within the UK?

Westminster can enact any necessary legislation.

But, specifically for checks between NI and GB, no legislation may be necessary. The UK customs authorities already have very wide powers of inspection which they mostly exercise at ports and airports, but which they can exercise anywhere within the UK.

Panrich · 04-12-2017 01:00PM

This is surely a hammer blow for a hard Brexit. I cannot see a two speed UK working.

Harika · 04-12-2017 01:01PM

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/937648900869099522

Wow, what a can of worms has been opened here. I am really interested now in the reactions from Scotland and the DUP.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 01:06PM

Scotland may ask for the same deal, but they won't get it. There's no GFA in Scotland; the EU doesn't have the same stake in the matter; relations with Ireland aren't in issue; it's not something Westminster needs to do in order to secure an EU trade agreement. So there won't be the same external pressure on the UK to concede the Scottish demand.

But the Scots will feel (rightly) pissed that what can be, and is being, done for NI is being denied to them, even though they were even more strongly opposed to Brexit than NI was.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 01:08PM

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 01:12PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

Good afternoon!

I'd be really really interested to see the terms actually agreed.

It seems the language has changed from no divergence to alignment on parts of custom union and single market required to keep an open border.

I'd be keen to see the consequences.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 01:12PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. What get the DUP's goat is the suggestion that NI should stay in the customs union while GB leaves. If NI and GB were to stay in the customs union that would tick all the DUP's boxes. And ours, of course. The only reason anyone is proposing the sea border is because GB want out of the customs union, and this is a way they can do that which minimises damage to Ireland (north and south).

Which highlights the level of politics involved.

DUP "we want to stay in the single market unless the rest of the UK is leaving then we'll ignore the economics and reject the single market". Hopefully the latest developments indicate that the Tories have ignored them.

Samaris · 04-12-2017 01:14PM

Oh...crikey.

I don't see Scotland getting it though. Ireland has a strong position with EU backing. Scotland has been roundly (and to my mind, foolishly) ignored by Westminster. May could have headed off Scottish discontent by involving Sturgeon in talks about the redevolution of powers; given NS something to give Scotland, shown some benefits to the whole thing to the devolved governments (Wales is quietly antsy on the point too) She didn't, and has basically ignored the SNP.

Almost every step May's taken, she's set herself up for later problems. She set herself up for a lack of Scottish goodwill in the early summer and never tried to repair it. Not sure how much Wales trusts her either.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 01:14PM

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

What will be interesting is what the paper says - it must surely say something - about whether or how the UK means to actually police regulatory convergence. If there is anything substantial in that regard it will give us the best clue as to which way the UK are trying to go.

kowtow wrote: »

My guess is that they will end up with a fudge which guarantees no regulatory divergence in NI until such time as a mutually acceptable electronic whole Island border thingy is implemented. They'll aim to use the transition period to do much of the work for this. They'll offer a bit of cash to Ireland to help in the planning and we'll jump.

The alternative is we hold up the talks (which even if right, doesn't help us much) and they drive home the message that they have never had any intention of putting a border up and Ireland and the EU obviously want to.

Once the rest of the 27 have a sniff of the money the pressure will be on from a lot of directions.

Then on with the second phase where the EU go for the same amount of money again in return for financial services pass porting rights. In many ways that's where things get interesting.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 01:15PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Which highlights the level of politics involved.

DUP "we want to stay in the single market unless the rest of the UK is leaving then we'll ignore the economics and reject the single market". Hopefully the latest developments indicate that the Tories have ignored them.

If the DUP are on board then they have very much pulled the horns in.
May has called their bluff?

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 01:15PM

The sea border was the only possible option in case the UK leaves the customs union and single market and the UK wanted to have no border with Ireland. We have been saying that on here in the echo chamber for a long time. This will throw up interesting scenarios for the UK in future. If they leave the CU then Ireland/NI will put up checks on the ports with the UK. If the UK doesn't want to check its their choice.

What this does do for me is put Scotland on the radar to leave the UK. If they don't get the same deal (unlikely) and there is a economic shock once the UK leaves then support for leaving the UK will increase. The winners in this for me is the EU/Ireland (we know where the power lies in the negotiation), NI and the SNP. The losers are the UK (shows how weak their hand is again) and the DUP (they are only in a power situation because of the general election and it probably won't happen again so they cannot force a new election, yet they have to concede to the Irish position).

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 01:15PM

So NI will drift further away from Britain. They will also incense the Scots.

Seems like taking back control could end up with the breaking up of the union!

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

Panrich · 04-12-2017 01:21PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So NI will drift further away from Britain. They will also incense the Scots.

Seems like taking back control could end up with the breaking up of the union!

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

I still think that the only way this flies for everyone is if the whole of the UK remains in the CU. It's a climbdown as it is, so it may as well be for sound reasoning.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 01:22PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ugh. Just breaking down this alleged text, it makes no sense and is a serious can-kick.

Well... aren't you (the UK) supposed to be putting forward a solution that we're going to consider agreeing to?

This would read so as to indicate that it means that the UK won't tax goods entering NI and will not conduct any border checks going into NI; but there is no indication that this would be agreed to from the EU the other way around (i.e. taxation/duty on goods from NI entering Ireland (the EU) or requirement to check passports (etc.)

This would also seem to fly entirely in the face of two of the major reasons for Brexit... migration into UK and the single market.

...whatever that means!?

I think the key part of that agreement is the last bit:

"that there continues to be [continued regulatory alignment with] those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA"

You actually need to examine the current areas of North-South cooperation and what is required by the GFA in that regard to understand what is covered.

"ANNEX
Areas for North-South co-operation and implementation may include the
following:
1. Agriculture - animal and plant health.
2. Education - teacher qualifications and exchanges.
3. Transport - strategic transport planning.
4. Environment - environmental protection, pollution, water quality, and
waste management.
5. Waterways - inland waterways.
6. Social Security/Social Welfare - entitlements of cross-border workers
and fraud control.
7. Tourism - promotion, marketing, research, and product development.
8. Relevant EU Programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and
their successors.
9. Inland Fisheries.
10. Aquaculture and marine matters
11. Health: accident and emergency services and other related crossborder
issues.
12. Urban and rural development."

I don't see trade listed. Neither do I see industry or services listed. Co-operation on many of those is required by any two countries that share a border, from waterways that mark the border to environmental issues that don't understand a border to matching up transport links such as roads etc.

Agriculture and Education may be the big ones, but very little of education is covered by EU competencies. Would keep the DUP farming community onside and allow them to hold their vote together.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 01:23PM

kowtow wrote: »

I don't like to quote my own post but I'm still betting on the position I set out below a few days back.

What will be interesting is what the paper says - it must surely say something - about whether or how the UK means to actually police regulatory convergence. If there is anything substantial in that regard it will give us the best clue as to which way the UK are trying to go.

But how do you have no border, which is the Irish position, to having an electronic one? The only way to ensure that there is no "friction" on the NI and Irish border would be for NI (or the whole UK) to stay in the customs union. It seems to me from examples that have been shown on here between countries that are in EFTA and the EU there is still holdups and checks.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 01:23PM

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 01:24PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sky blog reporting DUP are on board.

Sky Blog is reporting that Philippe Lambert MEP says that the DUP are on board. Not quite the same thing.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 01:26PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

Is there a difference between regulatory alignment of trade regulations and being in the customs union?

kowtow · 04-12-2017 01:27PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just cannot see how UK is going to agree that part of the nation, the nation that voted as one on the brexit ref, is going to be split out.

Taking back control appears only to involve the mainland.

They won't.

First, whatever the agreement is - if there is one - will set out an extremely ambitious regime, with the complete co-operation of Ireland, to move towards streamlined electronic checks - a border solution 'for the future'. In theory such a solution, subject to whatever is agreed in phase two, would be the best thing all-round. My guess is that the majority of physical checks, such as are required, would take place at the sea ports but the customs border itself would be at the unmanned electronic frontier. That's the solution the UK always wanted but the EU and Dublin have thrown back at them.

The paragraph being quoted by rte as a guarantee, if that is all there is, has a lot of loopholes.

"In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

It doesn't bring convergence on all issues, only no divergence on those rules which underpin the GFA.. presumably that is something left open to definition or interpretation at a later stage. Incidentally the link to the GFA will have been included at the UK's request in any event, because Scotland doesn't have a GFA (yet!?!!) and therefore it is easy for Westminster to argue that this is a special case.

Quite a neat solution so far.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 01:27PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I'd be really really interested to see the terms actually agreed.

It seems the language has changed from no divergence to alignment on parts of custom union and single market required to keep an open border.

Yup. This looks to me like a distinction without a difference. It could be a changee in wording to enable one party to move away from a position that it would be embarrassing simply to reverse. But I could be missing something.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I'd be keen to see the consequences.

The immediate consequence, of course, should be that the Brexit talks can proceed to phase 2 (the priorities for which have not yet been identified/agreed, but the UK will definitely want them to include a trade deal).

After that, don't hold your breath. It will be many months (at least) before we know what "regulatory alignment" looks like in detail.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 01:29PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Apparantly this doesn't mean NI will remain in the customs union. It just means regulatory alignment of trade regulations. Still better than nothing though

But if all the regs are the same then what is difference? You have to follow all the same rules in order to move the goods into Ireland, I doubt many farmers/companies are going to select having multiple standards in their operations.

And it also begs the question of what the future of NI is in terms of the UK if Britain in willing to treat them as a special case outside of Britain. The very reason for the DUP saying they want to be the same as Britain is they understand that this move puts them ever more closer to Dublin than London. It will be Dublin, through membership of the EU, that will be a factor in the laws that cover trade not London.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 01:30PM

On Daily Politics it was said Sammy Wilson said the regulatory alignment would be vetoed in Stormont.

Here is a tweet to confirm this,

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/937659983575027712

https://twitter.com/SMcC_TheDetail/status/937657513155203072

Brexit discussion thread II

Comments