Brexit discussion thread II

lawred2 · 04-12-2017 10:17AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The DUP's position, though, is that they want an open border with the Republic - it was in their 2017 election manifesto.

What the DUP are not committed to is leaving either the Single Market or the Customs Union. SFAIK they have never suggested that they want to do either of those things. They could have their cake (open border with the Republic) and eat it (open border with Great Britain) but for the Tory insistence on leaving. Arlene has recently called for a "sensible Brexit" and, if you read her speech setting out what that means, you'll note that departing the SM/CU is not one of the things she thinks is needed to make Brexit "sensible".

If the DUP really are kingmakers, then, that's how they would be inclined to exercise their kingmaking power - if not Single Market/Customs Union membership, then something that looks sufficiently like it to make cake-and-eat-it with respect to borders a viable proposition, while saving enough face for Teresa to enable her to stagger on (until the men in grey suits come calling). If anything is going to be fudged to placate the DUP, it's that.

You might want to catch up on some of Sammy Wilson's recent utterances

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 10:25AM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Not really. The point of a game of chicken is that you are betting the other guy will blink first.

The first rule of chicken is to realize when the other guy is not playing chicken.

Especially when you are in a Mini and they are in a bin lorry.

Blowfish · 04-12-2017 11:00AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

But today's lunch isn't the end. People can continue to talk, and continue to try and arrive at an agreed position. And of course May will be at the first day of the Summit, on 14 December, and can lobby the heads of government. This could go right down to the wire on 15 December.

Indeed, plus there's the added pressure that the next summit isn't until March and banks have been making noises that if there's no deal by the start of next year, they'll have to start kicking off their relocation plans.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 11:08AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

May's hands are tied by the DUP and I can't see her telling them to sod off. No conclusion at the EU summit isn't her biggest problem. Her biggest problem is not being able to get key Brexit legislation through parliament. She needs the DUP to do that. Like them or lump them they are kingmakers in parliament and can do May more damage right now than anyone else.

I think we're going to see some form of a fudged agreement with a rubber-stamped position that both sides don't want a hard border. She won't agree on a sea border, it seems highly unlikely. I could be wrong but that's my bet.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

For once we agree. The DUP have been a millstone around the UK's neck in these negotiations and will contribute to a no deal scenario.

In other news there seems to be some support for the idea of Northern Ireland staying in the customs union.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-poll-should-northern-ireland-have-referendum-on-staying-in-customs-union-if-so-how-would-you-vote-36364311.html

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 11:22AM

lawred2 wrote: »

You might want to catch up on some of Sammy Wilson's recent utterances

Trust me, I never want to catch up on Sammy's utterances!

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 11:26AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Trust me, I never want to catch up on Sammy's utterances!

In fairness staying in the customs union is exactly what Dublin are suggesting. This is what has caused the DUP, Arlene, Sammy, Robinson and Dodds to threaten the "Dublin government" and pull the plug on the Tories.

The DUP may say they want an open border but their other utterances on Brexit have rubbished that possibility. May should be ashamed of brining them into mainstream politics.

Christy42 · 04-12-2017 11:39AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

In fairness staying in the customs union is exactly what Dublin are suggesting. This is what has caused the DUP, Arlene, Sammy, Robinson and Dodds to threaten the "Dublin government" and pull the plug on the Tories.

The DUP may say they want an open border but their other utterances on Brexit have rubbished that possibility. May should be ashamed of brining them into mainstream politics.

The DUP want the UK to stay in the customs union. Essentially they want as soft a brexit they can get away with after campaigning for Brexit.

Given they want an open border and no special status for the north this is their only out. If they actually want to stick to their guns it is whst they need to be fighting tooth and nail for but they seem happy enough to give up on the open border thing.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 11:40AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

In fairness staying in the customs union is exactly what Dublin are suggesting. This is what has caused the DUP, Arlene, Sammy, Robinson and Dodds to threaten the "Dublin government" and pull the plug on the Tories.

The DUP may say they want an open border but their other utterances on Brexit have rubbished that possibility. May should be ashamed of brining them into mainstream politics.

No. What get the DUP's goat is the suggestion that NI should stay in the customs union while GB leaves. If NI and GB were to stay in the customs union that would tick all the DUP's boxes. And ours, of course. The only reason anyone is proposing the sea border is because GB want out of the customs union, and this is a way they can do that which minimises damage to Ireland (north and south).

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 11:44AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

If NI and GB were to stay in the customs union that would tick all the DUP's boxes.

They should bring down May's government, and then Corbyn will have the UK stay in the Single Market.

Win-win.

ancapailldorcha · 04-12-2017 11:45AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They should bring down May's government, and then Corbyn will have the UK stay in the Single Market.

Win-win.

Except Corbyn sees the EU as a capitalist club. He won't want to remain by the back door, he wants to be out as well.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 11:47AM

A lot of confusing info coming out>
French newspaper reporting Deal Done according to Sean O'Rourke. Steve Baker Bexit Minister saying 'Everything has worked out as we expected' and the Irish saying 'We are not there yet'.
May's meeting with Tusk pushed back to 4pm.

cml387 · 04-12-2017 11:58AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. What get the DUP's goat is the suggestion that NI should stay in the customs union while GB leaves. If NI and GB were to stay in the customs union that would tick all the DUP's boxes. And ours, of course. The only reason anyone is proposing the sea border is because GB want out of the customs union, and this is a way they can do that which minimises damage to Ireland (north and south).

Surely the DUP's ideal solution is for Ireland to leave the EU?

ambro25 · 04-12-2017 12:03PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A lot of confusing info coming out>
French newspaper reporting Deal Done according to Sean O'Rourke. Steve Baker Bexit Minister saying 'Everything has worked out as we expected' and the Irish saying 'We are not there yet'.
May's meeting with Tusk pushed back to 4pm.

I'm not seeing that at all on Google's aggregator newsfeed

(the newsfeed for French media, that is - here, but I don't know if that link will work for others)

Probably better to wait until tonight for any kind of certainty about the parties' positions and the outcome of today's meetings, as you can bet there's a still a ton of scurrying and jostling going on right now.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 12:06PM

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm not seeing that at all on Google's real-time newsfeed (for France)

Probably better to wait until tonight for any kind of certainty about the parties' positions and the outcome of today's meetings, as you can bet there's a still a ton of scurrying and jostling going on right now.

The correspondent said the paper (missed the name) tweeted it around 9am this morning. She did query it though as it was contrary to other stuff being reported.
Agree, it will be later before we get a sense of what is going down.

Lemming · 04-12-2017 12:06PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Except Corbyn sees the EU as a capitalist club. He won't want to remain by the back door, he wants to be out as well.

Not to forget too that large swathes of Labour voters voted for Brexit as well, leaving the Labour Party in a bit of a quandary. The only reason they've not taken a hammering is because being on the opposition benches affords them a degree of staying silent to avoid attention.

As I've said before, the UK needs brexit. Nobody else is at this point going to convince those who voted to leave that it's a horrible mistake as the whole farce has reached quasi - religious levels of tedious fvckery. Only cold hard painful reality will do that. And the first to turn will be working class labour voters, who are first in line to get brexit in the neck. Only then will we see some spine & conviction from Labour, who have thus far abdicated all responsibility of opposition.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 12:09PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The correspondent said the paper (missed the name) tweeted it around 9am this morning. She did query it though as it was contrary to other stuff being reported.
Agree, it will be later before we get a sense of what is going down.

Don't think it was a newspaper, moreso some sort of magazine. I never heard of it anyway but can't remember the name.

ArmaniJeanss · 04-12-2017 12:09PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Except Corbyn sees the EU as a capitalist club. He won't want to remain by the back door, he wants to be out as well.

Has already said he would vote remain if there was a second referendum
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/12/jeremy-corbyn-says-would-vote-remain-second-eu-referendum

Obviously his own opinion isn't necessarily exactly what Labour policy would be.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 12:10PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

Don't think it was a newspaper, moreso some sort of magazine. I never heard of it anyway but can't remember the name.

Yeh maybe. She did say it was usually a reputable source.

HugoRune · 04-12-2017 12:11PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Peregrinus wrote: »

Trust me, I never want to catch up on Sammy's utterances! ;)

In fairness staying in the customs union is exactly what Dublin are suggesting. This is what has caused the DUP, Arlene, Sammy, Robinson and Dodds to threaten the "Dublin government" and pull the plug on the Tories.

The DUP may say they want an open border but their other utterances on Brexit have rubbished that possibility. May should be ashamed of brining them into mainstream politics.

Have they threatened to pull the plug on the Tories? It would be surprising if they carried out that threat, and surely no-one thinks they would. Right now they can frustrate any moves towards a CU between the EU (i.e. Ireland) and NI. If the Tory government collapses on the back of this latest impasse, there will be a general election. Likely successor is Corbyn. Staunchly anti-EU, but pro UI. Even if the Tories are somehow returned, the likelihood of the DUP holding the balance of power again is slim to none.

Calina · 04-12-2017 12:14PM

Apparently Le Point is the French news source reporting a deal. Usually okay but I would still wait.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 12:17PM

HugoRune wrote: »

Have they threatened to pull the plug on the Tories? It would be surprising if they carried out that threat, and surely no-one thinks they would. Right now they can frustrate any moves towards a CU between the EU (i.e. Ireland) and NI. If the Tory government collapses on the back of this latest impasse, there will be a general election. Likely successor is Corbyn. Staunchly anti-EU, but pro UI. Even if the Tories are somehow returned, the likelihood of the DUP holding the balance of power again is slim to none.

Good morning!

There's nothing stopping them yanking the chain temporarily and causing a world of trouble on narrow votes in parliament unless May stands in their corner.

If they left permanently that wouldn't make their position any worse than it is if Theresa May ignores their opinion on the most important issues on their plate.

They know the Tories don't want to oust May. The 1922 Committee are keeping her on at all costs. There's no desire in the Conservative ranks for an election. Therefore it's in the DUP's interest to make this very hard for May. If they don't then their concerns about not compromising the union won't be heard.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 12:27PM

RTÉ news now reporting that "there will be no divergence of the rules covering the EU single market and customs union on the island of Ireland post Brexit"

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

I'm not exactly sure what that means or how that's feasible, but interesting development if true.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 12:35PM

Tony Connelly reporting the same.

BREAKING: UK will concede that there will be no "regulatory divergence" on the island of Ireland on the single market and customs union, acc to a draft text seen by @rtenews

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 12:38PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

RTÉ news now reporting that "there will be no divergence of the rules covering the EU single market and customs union on the island of Ireland post Brexit"

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

I'm not exactly sure what that means or how that's feasible, but interesting development if true.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Tony Connelly reporting the same.

BREAKING: UK will concede that there will be no "regulatory divergence" on the island of Ireland on the single market and customs union, acc to a draft text seen by @rtenews

I was about to ask Freidian what that meant but he failed me

So in layman's terms, what does that mean for any agreement?

Edit: he's just filed this so answer might be in this story https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

According to two well-placed sources, the text that negotiators have been working on intensively over the past five days, spell out that the UK will agree that on either side of the border there would be no divergence on EU single market and customs union rules after Brexit.

This has long been the Irish Government's preferred solution for avoiding a hard border.

But the above quote has since been overtaken by below
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/937642646285189120

ancapailldorcha · 04-12-2017 12:39PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Has already said he would vote remain if there was a second referendum
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/12/jeremy-corbyn-says-would-vote-remain-second-eu-referendum

Obviously his own opinion isn't necessarily exactly what Labour policy would be.

Given his antics during the referendum, this isn't exactly confidence inspiring.

04-12-2017 12:40PM

Lemming wrote: »

Not to forget too that large swathes of Labour voters voted for Brexit as well, leaving the Labour Party in a bit of a quandary. The only reason they've not taken a hammering is because being on the opposition benches affords them a degree of staying silent to avoid attention.

As I've said before, the UK needs brexit. Nobody else is at this point going to convince those who voted to leave that it's a horrible mistake as the whole farce has reached quasi - religious levels of tedious fvckery. Only cold hard painful reality will do that. And the first to turn will be working class labour voters, who are first in line to get brexit in the neck. Only then will we see some spine & conviction from Labour, who have thus far abdicated all responsibility of opposition.

there are several BBC news clips on Labour and why they suddenly changed tack to support the referendum

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-32863506/labour-will-back-eu-referendum-harriet-harman

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 12:43PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

I was about to ask Freidian what that meant but he failed me

So in layman's terms, what does that mean for any agreement?

Edit: he's just filed this so answer might be in this story https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

But the above quote has since been overtaken by below
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/937642646285189120

In really simplistic terms it means the UK is leaving NI in the EU for customs purposes; so between Ireland and Northern Ireland there will be a "single market" free of duty. How that can in any way function in a wider EU/UK context is baffling and raises many more questions than it answers.

It would indicate to me that the UK is aiming for a very soft Brexit... but what they're attempting to do is put the ball in to the EU's court - a plan which I feel will backfire on the UK.

GLaDOS · 04-12-2017 12:45PM

I assume this means there will be some sort of sea border between NI and mainland Britain so?

ancapailldorcha · 04-12-2017 12:46PM

This seems to be the only real solution short of the whole UK staying in both the single market and customs union.

Panrich · 04-12-2017 12:46PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

In really simplistic terms it means the UK is leaving NI in the EU for customs purposes; so between Ireland and Northern Ireland there will be a "single market" free of duty. How that can in any way function in a wider EU/UK context is baffling and raises many more questions than it answers.

It would indicate to me that the UK is aiming for a very soft Brexit... but what they're attempting to do is put the ball in to the EU's court - a plan which I feel will backfire on the UK.

I think that the end game, although not for public consumption just yet, will be the UK looking to stay in the SM/CU. I can see no other way that the DUP would go along with this and they know that the Scots will want the exact same deal now too.

Brexit discussion thread II

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