Brexit discussion thread II

joeysoap · 04-12-2017 01:26AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

At least the people in the north have a road map out of the mess that would be left in the wake of a cliff-edge Brexit.

The DUP know the latter point too.

Now wouldn’t that be a laugh. UK goes hard Brexit and hard border and there’s an referendum in NI.

CrabRevolution · 04-12-2017 01:30AM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

'no deal' is a border.

I dont seem to be making myself clear. Ireland doesnt want a border. The Eu doesnt want a border. The UK doesnt want a border. So, through whatever machinations, posturing, and last minute brinkmanship, a means will be found, essentially by concession on the EU side, that the UK will remain in the single market.

The EU will concede, because it thinks the UK is bats enough to go ahead with the border / no deal scenario. The UK is affecting this position at the moment : "look at us. We're crazy. We arent even coherent as a cabinet let alone as a parliament. We are trying to keep all colours of crazy in check here and find a workable solution. But we are crazy enough to go no deal/borders. Just try us if you dare".
And so the EU will back off and give the UK a good deal. There will be an open border. Johnson and Co, however unpalatable to many here and in Europe will also claim vindication having gotten a good deal for the UK, maintained the promise of an open border, etc.

The EU can't give them the cake-and-eat-it deal the UK wants, as that would be the EU signing its own death warrant.

If the UK gets to keep all the benefits of the EU while also having no responsibilities, you'll have a queue of countries leaving and demanding the same deal the UK got. The EU would be finished.

jm08 · 04-12-2017 01:32AM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I really cant see this happening. The problem is that the EU knows, should the UK pull that trigger, the bullet will hit Europe after it hits the UK. The EU can afford to pay the economic price when all is said and done. And so will be the one to concede the deal. All dressed up in win-win partnership speak of course. But concede it must.

Rees-Mogg and his cronies plan on removing tariffs (food in particular). If that happens Northern Ireland farmers in particular will be wiped out because they won't be able to compete.

The UK has to be accepted into the WTO (which they might find a bit difficult). The EU can block their membership for starters if they act the maggot too much.

Junkyard Tom · 04-12-2017 01:33AM

joeysoap wrote: »

Now wouldn’t that be a laugh. UK goes hard Brexit and hard border and there’s an referendum in NI.

I think the DUP know this all too well too. They, my goodness I can't believe I'm writing this, might even be the the more mitigating factor in preventing the lunatics from burning down the asylum.

I can't see what the DUP would think they could achieve by enabling a cliff-edge brexit except the end of the union and a pro-UI vote within several years.

Maybe they want to make the north such an utter basket-case impoverished dependency that all the nationalists will move south?

Kermit.de.frog · 04-12-2017 01:38AM

Being reported in the Guardian...

Theresa May fails to strike border deal with Irish government

Bit cynical · 04-12-2017 01:39AM

sink wrote: »

Do you honestly see the UK government not signing any kind of trade deal with the EU as permanent state of affairs? They just barely had support to pull out of the EU when it was all going to be all roses and sunshine. As soon as the screws starts turning every politician in the land will be facing a very angry electorate and will be sent back to the EU to get any sort of deal they can.

No, I could see them approaching the EU for a trade deal, much like the FTA with Canada and the Irish government could certainly block that too if (as indeed would be the case) such a deal did not remove the hard border.

But where I disagree most with posters here is the extent to which the EU regards the Irish border as a central issue in negotiations. It is only an issue to the extent that Ireland is in the EU and Ireland has a veto. Therefore Ireland stall the talks fairly easily.

What if the EU itself doesn't particularly want to do a deal with UK perhaps to send a message to other future discontents? Then the Irish strategy falls apart.

In that scenario, we're left with the hard border. We can blame the Brits for a while but we still suffer because of it. Politically the EU does not suffer because Ireland is only a tiny part of the EU. No politician in mainland Europe is worried about their job over it. Economically, most countries in Europe won't be affected by Brexit and some may even benefit slightly.

MPFGLB · 04-12-2017 01:40AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think the DUP know this all too well too. They, my goodness I can't believe I'm writing this, might even be the the more mitigating factor in preventing the lunatics from burning down the asylum.

I can't see what the DUP would think they could achieve by enabling a cliff-edge brexit except the end of the union and a pro-UI vote within several years.

Maybe they want to make the north such an utter basket-case impoverished dependency that all the nationalists will move south?

You give the DUP too much credit ...I dont think they have coherent thought that can constitute a strategy

Maybe NI would vote out of UK ? Afterall being in the UK has been a financial disaster for NI ...since the GFA things have looked up but stayign with Britian could reverse any gains

MPFGLB · 04-12-2017 01:41AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Being reported in the Guardian...

Theresa May fails to strike border deal with Irish government

Well that is going to be the case as long as the DUP holds sway
Mrs May should never have gone to the polls this year

sink · 04-12-2017 01:50AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

No, I could see them approaching the EU for a trade deal, much like the FTA with Canada and the Irish government could certainly block that too if (as indeed would be the case) such a deal did not remove the hard border.

But where I disagree most with posters here is the extent to which the EU regards the Irish border as a central issue in negotiations. It is only an issue to the extent that Ireland is in the EU and Ireland has a veto. Therefore Ireland stall the talks fairly easily.

What if the EU itself doesn't particularly want to do a deal with UK perhaps to send a message to other future discontents? Then the Irish strategy falls apart.

In that scenario, we're left with the hard border. We can blame the Brits for a while but we still suffer because of it. Politically the EU does not suffer because Ireland is only a tiny part of the EU. No politician in mainland Europe is worried about their job over it. Economically, most countries in Europe won't be affected by Brexit and some may even benefit slightly.

That assumes the UK will not back down, even after their economy crashes. Or that the EU will not accept a deal with the UK even after they make a humiliating climb-down.

I think you place too much faith in the UK's resolve. They are so utterly divided and weak, they will not find political stability without a deal.

You also attribute too much malice to the EU. It will take any deal which benefits all it's members without causing damage to the integrity of the single market and customs union. It's impossible for the the EU to be vindictive in that way. Self interested and stubborn certainly, but vindictiveness is not a trait beneficial to the health of a multilateral organisation based on cooperation and trust.

Samaris · 04-12-2017 01:50AM

Just to take the whole other scenario for a moment - the EU backs down from the UK's cunning chaotic incompetence ploy and says fine, you can talk about it during trade. Even say for the moment that Ireland cannot veto and it goes ahead.

Then what? What does a trade deal that is good for the UK look like for the border? What will it mean in terms of regulations? Say the UK gets a wonderful trade deal, given that whole Britain verbally pinky-promising no hard border, does that mean that they are staying in the Customs Union? Northern Ireland? Regulatory divergence, etc. Looming issue of WTO and international trade on both parties. We still need answers.

Even from the sidelines, I much prefer knowing this sorta grand scheme stuff before moving into the nitty-gritty of trade talks. Everyone's at least in the same universe. But for the sake of argument, if anyone could give an answer to how to solve it before calling it a good solution, that'd be great. Same for the sea border though. It solves more, but there's still some holes to be addressed.

MPFGLB · 04-12-2017 01:59AM

Looks like the Scots are riding to the rescue

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15698814.Scottish_government_vows_to_help_Ireland_fight_hard_border_after_Brexit/

Not sure what they can actually do that is practical ...but I suppose solidarity is not to be sniffed at

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 02:04AM

MPFGLB wrote: »

Looks like the Scots are riding to the rescue

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15698814.Scottish_government_vows_to_help_Ireland_fight_hard_border_after_Brexit/

Not sure what they can actually do that is practical ...but I suppose solidarity is not to be sniffed at

Welcome development.

The Herald got their facts wrong right from the start of that article though:

THE Scottish government has ramped up pressure on Theresa May's wounded Tory administration over Brexit after it vowed to help Ireland fight a hard border with Ulster.

Junkyard Tom · 04-12-2017 02:18AM

MPFGLB wrote: »

You give the DUP too much credit ...I dont think they have coherent thought that can constitute a strategy

I think their strategy went a bit like this (try humming circus music while you read this it will add to the effect)

DUP Strategy Head Quarters.

Let's support Brexit so we can out-British the UUP and prove how super-British we are. Sure it's not going happen, Lol.

Oh shit, they, I mean we, won... okay we'll just be leaving the EU, not much will change we'll stay in the CU and all that. God save the Queen!

Oh, a Westminster election. Grand job... Yay we won the UUP seats for Westminster and hold the balance of power. Cool! That was probably God, sure doesn't Big Ian have his ear these days.

Look at us, we're the men. Look how British we are over here in Westminster being bought off with British money.

Right, now that we have May over a barrel what could possibly go wrong. Okay.. the lunatic fringe are pushing a hard Brexit agenda. We'll be damned if they think they're going to thrown us under the bus WE'RE THE SUPER-BRITISH!

Be grand, we'll eat our big Union flag cake and it'll still be in the fridge in the morning. Hurrah! Anyone heard from Sinn Fein lately? Why the silence? ... ah sure they're just a bunch of regional nobodies, who cares about Stormont.

What now? The feckers in the Dail have a veto on us getting our eat-and-have-a-cake super-British strategy? Who do they think they are? :mad: They need to wind their necks in. :mad:

Wait a second lads, do you think maybe we're facing a no-win scenario here? We can either have our super-Brutishness or risk destabilising our beautiful union...

What a pickle we've found ourselves in, drat!

To be continued....

MPFGLB · 04-12-2017 02:30AM

Nice one Junkyard

Just thought today ...Brexit is comedy gold

But no 'In the thick of it' or no 'Halls Pictorial Weekly' or no 'spitting image' ....what happened to political satire ?

Even Apres Match ...is anyone doing anything ???

Kermit.de.frog · 04-12-2017 02:31AM

MPFGLB wrote: »

Looks like the Scots are riding to the rescue

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15698814.Scottish_government_vows_to_help_Ireland_fight_hard_border_after_Brexit/

Not sure what they can actually do that is practical ...but I suppose solidarity is not to be sniffed at

Not sure Scotland, as a region of the UK, wields any influence in this tbh.

Unless they had a party propping up a Westminster govt. Unfortunately they don't.

Junkyard Tom · 04-12-2017 02:57AM

It's very important to Westminster, and the DUP I guess, that the north doesn't get a deal that Scotland will use as a blueprint for leaving 'Greater England'. I'm not sure how the hell they're going to square that circle.

England base-jumping out of the EU hoping to grow wings while they fall would probably be the end of the UK as we know it because the Scots and Nationalists in the north will blame the CONs/DUP for their woes with the resulting consequences.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 03:05AM

There seems to be no news on this! Very little info to be found right now.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-12-2017 03:24AM

Word is no deal tomorrow but London may request more time on it.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 04:25AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland demanding defacto sea border according to the Irish Times tomorrow

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/government-seeks-firm-british-guarantee-on-border-1.3314366

Not having a subscription, I can only read the first three lines of the Irish Times Report, but FWIW the first three lines do not reflect the summary you give.

Far be it from me to encourage breach of copyright, but could you sort of beat around the bush a bit as to the gist of the rest of the article?

Kermit.de.frog · 04-12-2017 04:31AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not having a subscription, I can only read the first three lines of the Irish Times Report, but FWIW the first three lines do not reflect the summary you give.

Far be it from me to encourage breach of copyright, but could you sort of beat around the bush a bit as to the gist of the rest of the article?

Not going to post whole article obviously but the key point.

Ireland is sticking to its position that there should be no “regulatory divergence” between the North and the Republic, and this is understood to be the main point of negotiation.

Anything less than a commitment to no regulatory divergence, it is argued, will mean the return of a hard Border.

Sources said the exact wording of the deal was not as important as what it would actually contain. This is a commitment to the same regulations applying across the island of Ireland even in a potential “no-deal” Brexit, which means the Border would not be tied up in contentious phase two talks.

Chips Lovell · 04-12-2017 07:59AM

Please read the charter re. Link dumping.

Please remember that we are not a blog, a news feed nor an announcement forum - if you are not willing to discuss what you post, then please don't post it.

Remember, it's a discussion forum, not a news feed. Please don't just copy paste links and/or pictures.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 08:49AM

Is anyone else having problems with this site this morning? Posts keep going missing then coming back.

Looks like no deal on the border anyway. I wonder how much easier this would be if the DUP weren't in power with the Tories. We've seen the poll that most of NI prefers a sea border.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 09:19AM

RTE is reporting that the UK and Ireland have (so far) failed to agree a form of wording on the status of the Irish border that they are both comfortable with. As this was supposed to be done in time for Teresa May's lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker today, this represents a bit of a hiccup.

Tony Connolly of RTE has some very good analysis of the brink we are on here. His view: What happens between now and the Summit 15 December "will have untold implications for the history of Ireland and the United Kingdom", and trying to arrive at an agreed position "will stretch the politics of Brexit to the limit".

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 09:21AM

So this morning it seems the British are in trouble. Sufficient progress has not been made.

The influential German EPP policitian Manfred Weber has tweeted a few minutes ago making it crystal clear to the British that they have not as yet managed to sufficiently address their European partners in areas such as citizen's rights, the role of the ECJ, and of course the border issue.

Shame on the British for wasting everyone's time on this.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 09:27AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So this morning it seems the British are in trouble. Sufficient progress has not been made.

The influential German EPP policitian Manfred Weber has tweeted a few minutes ago making it crystal clear to the British that they have not as yet managed to sufficiently address their European partners in areas such as citizen's rights, the role of the ECJ, and of course the border issue.

Shame on the British for wasting everyone's time on this.

Sufficient progress has not been made yet.

The definite decision on "sufficient progress" will be made at the EU Summit on 15 December. This will be a decision taken by the European Council - consisting, in this context, the heads of government of the EU-27. Prior to that, the EU Commission will offer the Council its advice/recommendation as to whether sufficient progress has been made. In theory, at any rate, the Council could reject the Commission's views and decide the other way. The Commission, in turn, will be heavily influenced by what Michel Barnier has to say, and today's lunch is Teresa's best opportunity to satisfy him that he should recommend that, yes, sufficient progress has been made. That was the reason why people were hoping for an agreed position on the border by today.

But today's lunch isn't the end. People can continue to talk, and continue to try and arrive at an agreed position. And of course May will be at the first day of the Summit, on 14 December, and can lobby the heads of government. This could go right down to the wire on 15 December.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 09:31AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Sufficient progress has not been made yet.

The definite decision on "sufficient progress" will be made at the EU Summit on 15 December. This will be a decision taken by the European Council - consisting, in this context, the heads of government of the EU-27. Prior to that, the EU Commission will offer the Council its advice/recommendation as to whether sufficient progress has been made. In theory, at any rate, the Council could reject the Commission's views and decide the other way. The Commission, in turn, will be heavily influenced by what Michel Barnier has to say, and today's lunch is Teresa's best opportunity to satisfy him that he should recommend that, yes, sufficient progress has been made.

But today's lunch isn't the end. People can continue to talk, and continue to try and arrive at an agreed position. And of course May will be at the first day of the Summit, on 14 December, and can lobby the heads of government. This could go right down to the wire on 15 December.

And Leo will be at that commission meeting, without aides or other ministers/officials. All on his own I believe.
Another big test coming up for him if the Commission want to fudge it, that he needs to pass.

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 09:46AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And Leo will be at that commission meeting, without aides or other ministers/officials. All on his own I believe.
Another big test coming up for him if the Commission want to fudge it, that he needs to pass.

Nitpick: Leo will be at the Council meeting. And of course he'll be attended by aides and others; but when push comes to shove they'll be outside the room. As will everyone else's aides, etc.

As I see it:

1. The Commission is unlikely to recommend that sufficient progress has been made unless Ireland is onside with that view. If the Commission does recommend this, and we're onside, the Council will accept that and the talks will move on to Phase 2.

2. If the Commission recommends that sufficient progress has been made when Ireland thinks otherwise, this would be a major surprise. If it does happen, though, it would be up to Leo to persuade the Council to reject the Commission's advice and, if necessary, to deploy the Irish veto. But I really, really don't think it it will come to this.

3. If the Commission recommends that sufficient progress has not been made (and if Ireland is onside with that recommendation, which it will be) then it's up to the UK, with honeyed words and blandishments, to persuade the Council to reject the Commission's advice. The British deployment of honeyed words and blandishments in this campaign has not been notably effective to date, so I would be very surprised if May could get the necessary majority of the Council on her side, against the recommendation of the Commission and the wishes of Ireland. If she did, Leo could again deploy the veto.

In the latter two scenarios, Leo might have to consider exercising the veto. He would also have to consider, though, whether it was in our best interests to do so. If the British position on the border is nearly good enough, allowing matters to go forward to Phase 2, with the goodwill of our EU partners and their support in continuing to press the British to come to a final settlement that is actually good enough might be a better prospect for us than exercising the veto and possibly having the UK crash out with no deal, and seriously pissing off some of the EU-27 into the bargain.

But, honestly, I think it's unlikely that Leo will have to consider using the veto. The EU-27 are pretty much of the same mind as Ireland on this matter. Any position that we would like to veto, they are probably not going to accept anyway, either in the Commission or in the Council, so we'll never get to the point of having to veto it.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 09:50AM

On the point that is raised that the border cannot be solved without trade talks, I think the way to see if that statement holds true or not is by looking at the alternative views to it. If there is no way to sort out the border without knowing the trade terms it would be correct to state this.

However if the opposite can be used as well then it obviously isn't true. Unfortunately for the UK Government they can know already what relationship they want with the EU so they can discuss the border already. It seems to me that they have made up their minds already on the kind of trading relationship they want so unless pressure is applied they will not move from this position. If they carry on with the red lines there will be a hard border between the UK and the EU. I think the NI position is still up for debate but there will be customs checks between the other EU ports and the English, Scottish and Welsh ports.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 09:51AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And Leo will be at that commission meeting, without aides or other ministers/officials. All on his own I believe.
Another big test coming up for him if the Commission want to fudge it, that he needs to pass.

Good morning!

May's hands are tied by the DUP and I can't see her telling them to sod off. No conclusion at the EU summit isn't her biggest problem. Her biggest problem is not being able to get key Brexit legislation through parliament. She needs the DUP to do that. Like them or lump them they are kingmakers in parliament and can do May more damage right now than anyone else.

I think we're going to see some form of a fudged agreement with a rubber-stamped position that both sides don't want a hard border. She won't agree on a sea border, it seems highly unlikely. I could be wrong but that's my bet.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Peregrinus · 04-12-2017 10:03AM

The DUP's position, though, is that they want an open border with the Republic - it was in their 2017 election manifesto.

What the DUP are not committed to is leaving either the Single Market or the Customs Union. SFAIK they have never suggested that they want to do either of those things. They could have their cake (open border with the Republic) and eat it (open border with Great Britain) but for the Tory insistence on leaving. Arlene has recently called for a "sensible Brexit" and, if you read her speech setting out what that means, you'll note that departing the SM/CU is not one of the things she thinks is needed to make Brexit "sensible".

If the DUP really are kingmakers, then, that's how they would be inclined to exercise their kingmaking power - if not Single Market/Customs Union membership, then something that looks sufficiently like it to make cake-and-eat-it with respect to borders a viable proposition, while saving enough face for Teresa to enable her to stagger on (until the men in grey suits come calling). If anything is going to be fudged to placate the DUP, it's that.

Brexit discussion thread II

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