Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

Clonmel1000 · 21-11-2017 09:25PM

I’ve enjoyed the mild weather would obviously like to see some more brightness though.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 09:28PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I’ve enjoyed the mild weather would obviously like to see some more brightness though.

I've not enjoyed it at all because there has been little to no sun though it would be worse if it was cold and dull.

Rock Lesnar · 21-11-2017 09:32PM

Not looking forward to the rain tomorrow, as the field beside house is already waterlogged in places

MJohnston · 21-11-2017 09:37PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

I’ve enjoyed the mild weather would obviously like to see some more brightness though.

Would much rather the very cold, very sunny, very still weather we had before that mild spell. Mildness this time of year just means a veil of grey clouds and drizzle.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-11-2017 09:38PM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Wet day in store tomorrow and quite windy along S and SE coasts . A lot of rain to fall from the early hours until late tomorrow . Rain just making it to the SW coast now. The land is very soggy so spot flooding a threat no doubt. The drop off in temps is spectacular tomorrow as the new cold air mass takes over.[/IMG]

Spectacular? We won't see any real cold until late on Thursday as that low moving down from the north tomorrow night is a warm seclusion that breaks off from the low over the UK tonight. Some snow on the mountains in the north is as good as it will get over the next 48 hours.

MJohnston · 21-11-2017 09:50PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Spectacular? We won't see any real cold until late on Thursday as that low moving down from the north tomorrow night is a warm seclusion that breaks off from the low over the UK tonight. Some snow on the mountains in the north is as good as it will get over the next 48 hours.

Some of the island will drop from around 15° at midday tomorrow to just about freezing at midnight. That's a wild enough swing.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-11-2017 10:14PM

MJohnston wrote: »

Some of the island will drop from around 15° at midday tomorrow to just about freezing at midnight. That's a wild enough swing.

I can't see anywhere reaching 15 tomorrow. 12 or 13 at best, and these areas will be in the south and east, where the coldest air will not reach. Further north and west max temperatures will be several degrees less than that to start with so not such a huge difference by tomorrow night. A ten-degree drop in temperature from midday to midnight I would not call wild.

kod87 · 21-11-2017 10:18PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I can't see anywhere reaching 15 tomorrow. 12 or 13 at best, and these areas will be in the south and east, where the coldest air will not reach. Further north and west max temperatures will be several degrees less than that to start with so not such a huge difference by tomorrow night. A ten-degree drop in temperature from midday to midnight I would not call wild.

Maybe "spectacular'' was a bit OTT but a noticeable change none the less. Lets not be pedants over the exact phrase used.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 10:20PM

Yeah the highest Met Éireann is expecting is 13c but in my opinion, is still quite a drop for our standards.

MJohnston · 21-11-2017 10:35PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I can't see anywhere reaching 15 tomorrow. 12 or 13 at best, and these areas will be in the south and east, where the coldest air will not reach. Further north and west max temperatures will be several degrees less than that to start with so not such a huge difference by tomorrow night. A ten-degree drop in temperature from midday to midnight I would not call wild.

You're of course free to call it whatever you want.

In my opinion, when compared with the very mild nights we've had the last few (and tonight), it's going to be a pretty wild drop in temperature where I live anyway. The contrast between midday Wednesday and midday Thursday is going to be even wilder imo, especially as the wind chill will be significantly increased.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 10:39PM

Here we go again on the GFS 18z, it's still picking up on quite a snow event in parts of England midnight into Saturday:

JCX BXC · 21-11-2017 10:50PM

Interesting temperature range in the UK at the moment!

Doncaster: 15c
Inverness: 5c

JCX BXC · 21-11-2017 10:52PM

Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of that model? Giving snow all up the West coast!

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 10:53PM

JCX BXC wrote: »

Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of that model? Giving snow all up the West coast!

It's the GFS. In my opinion, one of the worst models when it comes to accuracy but not saying all the other models are brilliant either :pac:.

It gets pretty lost sometimes.... look at the FI Charts thread and you'll see what I mean.

km79 · 21-11-2017 10:56PM

Latest update from yr.no is predicting 40mm over the next 12 hour period for my location in east Galway
This is at odds with both met eireann and met Office predictive sequence for similar period

I have found yr way off at times over last month including for storm Ophelia which apparently didn’t exist !
I hope this is the case again

MJohnston · 21-11-2017 11:05PM

km79 wrote: »

Latest update from yr.no is predicting 40mm over the next 12 hour period for my location in east Galway
This is at odds with both met eireann and met Office predictive sequence for similar period

I have found yr way off at times over last month including for storm Ophelia which apparently didn’t exist !
I hope this is the case again

Unlikely to be that much, but still pretty heavy:

nmm_uk1-25-16-0.png?21-23

Clonmel1000 · 21-11-2017 11:10PM

MJohnston wrote: »

Would much rather the very cold, very sunny, very still weather we had before that mild spell. Mildness this time of year just means a veil of grey clouds and drizzle.

Which is pretty much what I said. I’d like the brightness that comes with cold air. The notion that we are going to see some kind of winter wonderland that so many crave on here is a bit far fetched. It’ll be a little brighter a lot colder and showery. Don’t expect to many likes for saying that though.

km79 · 21-11-2017 11:11PM

MJohnston wrote: »

Unlikely to be that much, but still pretty heavy:

Yeah that’s more in line with met

ninebeanrows · 21-11-2017 11:12PM

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's the GFS. In my opinion, one of the worst models when it comes to accuracy but not saying all the other models are brilliant either :pac:.

It gets pretty lost sometimes.... look at the FI Charts thread and you'll see what I mean.

As far as I know,, the GFS hashing just shows snow if there is any snow in the precipitation, so there could be 5mm forecast, 1mm of which will be snow and 4mm of which will be rain...so wet sleet at best... So it is difficult to actually give out about a model without actually knowing what it is trying to represent.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 11:13PM

Weathercheck wrote: »

As far as I know,, the GFS hashing just shows snow if there is any snow in the precipitation, so there could be 5mm forecast, 1mm of which will be snow and 4mm of which will be rain...so wet sleet at best... So it is difficult to actually give out about a model without actually knowing what it is trying to represent.

I'm not talking specifically about snow when I said that statement. I'm talking about the GFS in general. Even the US prefer using the ECM, a European model over their own model the GFS as guidance.

igCorcaigh · 21-11-2017 11:17PM

Some rain down here at the moment.

ninebeanrows · 21-11-2017 11:18PM

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm not talking specifically about snow when I said that statement. I'm talking about the GFS in general. Even the US prefer using the ECM, a European model over their own model the GFS as guidance.

Yes of course - the EC wins on most skill scores but the GFS is not leagues behind-probably just 5-10% less accurate. The GFS can sometimes have it's day- so should be used in combination with other model suites and not disregarded as some people do.

sryanbruen · 21-11-2017 11:26PM

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes of course - the EC wins on most skill scores but the GFS is not leagues behind-probably just 5-10% less accurate. The GFS can sometimes have it's day- so should be used in combination with other model suites and not disregarded as some people do.

Oh no, I'm not one of the people who disregard the GFS. Like sure I laugh at it a lot in what it's showing in comparison with all other models like with the potential mild and stormy weather for a time during early December on the 18z run. Not to mention how it will show something completely different to another model and then follow the other model's shoes a run or so later. But I still treat it like any other model with a pinch of salt.

MJohnston · 21-11-2017 11:33PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Which is pretty much what I said. I’d like the brightness that comes with cold air.

Sorry, from reading your post I thought you were hoping for mild and bright the way you worded it!

Meteorite58 · 21-11-2017 11:41PM

Strong winds along the SE and E for a time tomorrow and giving rough conditions on the Irish Sea.

pauldry · 22-11-2017 01:08AM

Cold air arriving in NW. now

Down from 10.7c to 8.8c in an hour

Tomorrow could get interesting....on hills

beefburrito · 22-11-2017 01:19AM

I was just looking at magicseaweed and for the next few days the winds start off Easterly tomorrow,then for the foreseeable future they're going north westerly.

Rock Lesnar · 22-11-2017 07:25AM

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Not looking forward to the rain tomorrow, as the field beside house is already waterlogged in places

Well the ducks are enjoying the waterlogged field this morning, im not though

Rock Lesnar · 22-11-2017 07:59AM

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Well the ducks are enjoying the waterlogged field this morning, im not though

Heaviest rain of the autumn so far here, Side garden flooding now, heading for the driveway, drainage pipes working overtime, gonna be a loooong day

JCX BXC · 22-11-2017 08:14AM

Alot heavier and wetter than I expected, 36.6mm of rain since midnight and more to come here in West Clare!

Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

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