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Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

  • 29-08-2017 7:35pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Three more days 'til meteorological Autumn begins... something many people are tending to forget :).

    This is my official Autumn 2017 forecast:

    As you know, I do early thoughts or predictions for the coming year in December every year. These were my Autumn 2017 predictions I set in December 2016:

    September - Fairly cool, wet and sunny.
    October - Very wet, stormy and mild.
    November - Another very sunny November but wet and mild.

    Looking back on them, I still agree 100% with myself up to this point. This is what I think Autumn 2017 is going to turn out like in terms of monthly conditions. For the Autumn as a whole, I put down a mild and very wet one much like Autumns such as 1998 or 2006.

    Now there's a reason behind why I'm predicting this Autumn to be comparable in some ways to Autumn 2006. If you look at the Solar Cycle SN progression chart from NOAA, you'll see that Autumn 2017 lines up with the SN and stage the Solar Cycle was in of Autumn 2006. Winter 2016/17 & 2005/06 were very similar in many aspects. It was actually very scary how similar they were haha. One of their similarities was solar activity. November 2016 & 2005 were also very similar. Autumn 2006 was the warmest on record with also the warmest September on record. But here for Autumn 2017, I'm predicting a fairly cool September. Why is this so if I'm saying that Autumn 2017 will be similar to Autumn 2006? Well, you'll never find a full repeat of a season again so I thought September would be different with Autumn 2017 compared to Autumn 2006. Also, September 2016 was very warm and unless Mother Nature pulls a move like December 2015 & 2016 where both months are very mild, I think Nature will like to balance itself out with that September of last year. I'm only going for a fairly cool September so close to average temperatures on the negative side - nothing significant. The CFSv2 is also showing Northern Blocking for September.

    As the Autumn is going to be similar to 2006 from my predictions, it's going to be a very wet Autumn. Autumn 2016 was very dry and the driest Autumn since 2007. Wet Autumns tend to be much more common nowadays and I feel that we're due a wet Autumn. I feel October in particular will be a stormy month. We had two consecutive very anticyclonic Octobers in 2015 & 2016. You'd think we'd be due a wet one by now.

    There is not a single model going for a cool Autumn. They're all showing a mild one with the majority showing a wet, unsettled one.

    As for the chance of November snow, I don't think it's going to happen. Last year had snow in places and I think Nature is going to balance itself out this year with none. Beware that there are some indications going for the chance of November snow such as the CanSIPS showing a very negative NAO with a trough to the southeast of England bringing the winds down from the north. As I said though, I don't think it's going to happen. Please to god hope that Nature will prove me wrong!

    So my final thoughts are that Autumn 2017 will be a very wet, stormy and mild one with the earlier part of the Autumn being rather cool but warming up quickly as we go on through it.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 31,665 ✭✭✭✭ Mars Bar


    I am so ****ing cold after being in Croatia last week. Just as well I'm moving to kuwait next week I guess!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    It's felt like autumn since August 1st I'm not kidding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 194 ✭✭ Sean 18


    Yes feels like autumn today but I remember the start of autumn 1991 was very warns and sunny think it even passed out the summer that year bar may 1991


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Sean 18 wrote: »
    Yes feels like autumn today but I remember the start of autumn 1991 was very warns and sunny think it even passed out the summer that year bar may 1991

    Yes, the warmest day of 1991 was September 5th.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,112 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    I remember autumn 1991 well as i started in collage and beautiful month of september and into october .one hardy buck only wore a t shirt morning ,noon and night up to mid term break .I wondered did he even own a jumper !!!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    Last night was the first it's really felt like autumn for me - very very chilly. To be honest, I welcomed it as a couple of nights before were miserably warm in the house.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just noticing the latest GFS run seems to be upgrading the wind strengths a bit on the coasts Sat into Sun

    tempresult_wsp6.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 nagdefy


    Nice start to the autumn here in Laois. Hard to believe it's September!


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    The last 3 days have been better than any 3 day spell during summer
    Pity next week looks so wet


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Got down to 4c here this morning, but back to that sickly feeling, windless warmth since late morning. This summer feels so endlessly endless.

    Roll on October.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Metrological Autumn begins today but the Calendar Autumn began on the 1st of August. It looks that some of the trees are looking autumnal for the last couple of week. It is probably the rather cool weather we had to put up with the final month of the metrological summer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,666 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    STATUS YELLOW

    Rainfall Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford
    Heavy rain developing in the West Saturday afternoon will spread Eastwards during the evening and continue for a time overnight.

    Issued:Friday 01 September 2017 10:00
    Valid:Saturday 02 September 2017 15:00 to Sunday 03 September 2017 06:00


    Lovely


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The latest rainfall accumulation prediction from the GFS. Galway, Clare, Kerry, Waterford and Cork look like getting the most rainfall on this run. Wind at this stage should not be too strong.

    nmINXAW.gif

    The AROME showing very high rainfall totals on mountains in Galway, Kerry and Cork by 8.00 Sun

    lj5jHU9.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Plenty of moisture being fed into the atmosphere from the US . I see there could be a lot of rain around next Thurs and Fri. Totals are going to be high for the first week of Sept.

    https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/903663848078663681


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    New season same old ****e. What's the sunspot activity like?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    New season same old ****e. What's the sunspot activity like?

    NOAA has yet to update their average SN for August 2017 but here is their chart from January 2000 in the middle of Solar Cycle 23 up to July 2017 in Solar Cycle 24. In recent days, the solar activity has been shooting up but overall, it's continuing to decline and solar minimum should be reached in like late 2018 or early to mid 2019. This would mean that due to solar activity, our best chances for cold winters would be from 2019/20 to 2021/22 but as 1990/91 had a positive NAO, positive AO, westerly QBO, high solar activity - that Winter proves that even if you have all the methodology against a cold Winter, it doesn't mean it can't happen. I'm not personally optimistic on a cold Winter for 2017/18 at all though.

    solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Well that suits me! Don't mind the cold but not too much of it thank you :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 951 Floki


    ENSO forecasts look like it's heading for a La Nina again but could be stronger than our brief La Nina last autumn.

    To me that looks like we can expect a lot of storms and flooding this autumn/winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Floki wrote: »
    ENSO forecasts look like it's heading for a La Nina again but could be stronger than our brief La Nina last autumn.

    To me that looks like we can expect a lot of storms and flooding this autumn/winter.

    I track ENSO here in this thread if you'd like to join the discussion on that: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057713492&page=2

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Some contrast between today and what is expected tomorrow. Latest forecast from Met Eireann saying strong and gusty winds

    Gusts


    tempresult_dja9.gif

    wQDInJq.png?1

    oeclc2v.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    This can't be right...

    image.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    94% here in Castlebar so way off. probably meant to be 96%


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    An idea of rainfall tomorrow into early Sun according to the latest AROME and WRF run, high ground getting the most rain.

    tempresult_tez5.gif

    aromehd-25-36-0_jvg6.png

    WRF- NMM

    nmm_uk1-25-36-0_aef4.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,666 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    STATUS ORANGE

    Rainfall Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford
    Rain will turn heavy and persistent this afternoon and persist for a time overnight. Rainfall totals of 30-40mm are expected widely with potential for accumulations of around 50mm in coastal and upland areas. The rain will be accompanied by strong and gusty southerly winds

    Issued:Saturday 02 September 2017 07:00
    Valid:Saturday 02 September 2017 12:00 to Sunday 03 September 2017 03:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Rainfall Warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Galway, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
    Outbreaks of locally heavy rain moving in this afternoon and persisting for a time overnight. Rainfall accumulations of 30mm are possible in places, with potential for 40mm in upland areas. The rain will be accompanied by a fresh to strong and gusty southerly wind.

    Issued:Saturday 02 September 2017 07:31
    Valid:Saturday 02 September 2017 15:00 to Sunday 03 September 2017 03:00

    *----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

    Cork, Kerry and Waterford now with an orange warning, and Limerick added to the yellow warning.

    Dublin, Louth, Meath and Mayo removed from the warning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    [LEVEL 2 Weather Warning - Be Prepared] Orange Rainfall Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782776

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Bloody ridiculous :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,666 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    1.6mm so far and rainrate of 9mm/h.

    Yellow warning hasn't even come into effect yet, it's going to be a wet one!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,502 ✭✭✭✭ Xenji


    It has been raining steadily since this morning in Castlebar, looking at some of the runs it seems it could be the case for most of the day.


  • Moderators Posts: 10,123 ✭✭✭✭ LEIN


    Hard to believe that summer has been and gone already. Too quick.

    Cloud is thickening ahead of the advancing front here.
    Was a great morning with good sunshine.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,421 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Quite chilly here in South Laois last night with an air minimum of just 3.6c and a grass minimum (Gmin) of 2.3c. Autumn certainly on queue here.


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