Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady · 14-11-2017 07:47PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Very interesting and thank you very much for this. It appears to back up most of what I have said.

I note that the paper clearly states "That High Court in Belfast declared in October 2016 that it would be an over-statement to suggest that EU membership was a constitutional bulwark central to the Good Friday Agreement, which would be breached by notification of Article 50. This, the Court asserted, would be to ‘elevate ... [EU membership] over and beyond its true contextual position’.16 In its January 2017 verdict, the UK Supreme Court upheld the Belfast High Court position: the principle of consent for constitutional change contained in the Good Friday Agreement referred to whether Northern Ireland remained in the UK or unified with the rest of Ireland. It did not refer to EU membership or withdrawal."

I must look up these cases, as the Courts have clearly determined already that Brexit does not breach the GFA. We can close off this debate.

Then there is the suggestion:

"Brexit must surely require deletion and/or revision of the references to the EU within the Good Friday Agreement. As one of the signatories to the deal will no longer be part of the EU, it is unclear how the required ‘implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework’, as outlined in para. 17 of Strand Two, can continue."

Why is this so? There are plenty of defunct clauses in international agreements all over the world. References to the League of Nations or the European Community etc. abound in various international treaties, yet neither organisation continues to exist. The rational conclusion, involving the least disruption is that there is no further discussion on EU programmes because they no longer apply to Northern Ireland.

As for the ECHR, there is confirmation that it is a separate manner and has no relation to Brexit:

"A further aspect of UK withdrawal relates to the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR). The Convention is not an EU institution, but secession from the EU may embolden those in the UK Conservative Government seeking to replace adherence to the ECHR with a UK Bill of Rights."

A What if scenario if ever I saw one.

On citizenship, apart from saying that there has been an increase in applications, it does not say that Brexit affects the GFA provisions.

"One other important aspect of the Agreement is its confirmation of the right of anyone born on the island of Ireland to hold Irish, and thus EU, citizenship. The Agreement confirms (Constitutional Issues, para vi.) the right of Northern Ireland’s citizens to hold British and Irish citizenship and that this ‘would not be affected by any future change in the status of Northern Ireland’. In the five months following the Brexit referendum vote, there were 24,849 applications for an Irish passport from Northern Ireland (a 63 per cent increase on the same period in 2015)."

So to sum up:

- The Courts have determined that the GFA does not require continued UK membership of the EU, therefore Brexit in and of itself does not breach the GFA
- Citizenship rights are not affected
- The ECHR is a completely separate issue
- References to the EU in the GFA are complicated, the paper suggests they may have to be renegotiated, alternatively, as I suggest, they are just defunct. Either way, it is hardly relevant as the EU programmes will no longer apply to Northern Ireland, so why would the two nations discuss them?
- There are political issues around the GFA

I can't disagree with any of that.

There is enough in there to point to a number of possible breach's of the GFA which is what has been claimed. The possibility for breach. Despite you claiming that posters said it was in breach as of now, I don't think anyone claimed that.

swampgas · 14-11-2017 07:49PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Doesn't matter who it is, the only requirement is they must believe in Brexit. And then preferably get rid of the remain squad.

There's a fundamentalist, isolationist, quasi-religious vibe to statements like that.

Almost like you want to pull up the drawbridge on the rest of the world and hunker down in your bunker in case you get infected by strange foreign ideas and lose your sense of identity.

solodeogloria · 14-11-2017 07:52PM

Good evening!

Anthracite wrote: »

This nonsense again.

The referendum was about withdrawing from the EU. It said NOTHING about the EEA.

Respectfully I disagree. The referendum was won on the basis of taking back control of borders, laws and money. Feel free to look at the Lord Ashcroft poll of leave and remain voters that ancapailldorcha keeps posting. The EEA option is a bad deal. It effectively means that Britain hasn't left the European Union. It is subject to its strictures without having regained any control. The opposite of what won the referendum.

To others:
On John Redwood and his derivatives. I personally don't mind what speculative financial instruments he chooses to buy and sell and why. He's a leaver in the no deal camp rather than a leaver who supports a good negotiated agreement (like myself).

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A Little Pony · 14-11-2017 07:55PM

swampgas wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Doesn't matter who it is, the only requirement is they must believe in Brexit. And then preferably get rid of the remain squad.

There's a fundamentalist, isolationist, quasi-religious vibe to statements like that.

Almost like you want to pull up the drawbridge on the rest of the world and hunker down in your bunker in case you get infected by strange foreign ideas and lose your sense of identity.

It's fundamentalist alright, I believes the spoils of victory should go to the winning side and I want to see Brexit delivered and I don't care how it's done except the fundamentals on the SM and CU. Theresa May is weak and comes across as such and as she doesn't believe in it, it's time to get rid of her.

View · 14-11-2017 08:01PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

View wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

View wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

The Russians are here, hide under the bed!

Wouldn't mind if it was ripped up, worst form of government in Europe and doesn't work, so it's not worth saving.

Ah, i see lets deploy the deflection tactics.

So are you disputing the evidence of involvement or trying to side track it like Trump has been ?

The remain campaign lost by something like a million votes. Remain lost fair and square,

If there was outside interference then the result clearly wasn’t either fair or square.

A Little Pony wrote: »

If Brexit was influenced by the Russians and it swung a million people to vote for Brexit including myself (wish I had seen this propaganda at the time) then I can only thank Putin for helping us out of the EU.

Or, in other words, I couldn’t care less about what the will of the British people really is, merely that I got the result that I wanted and if that means siding with a foreign power over my own country to acheive it, then I am all for it.

Provide the evidence that a million people got influenced by Russian bots ordered on the instructions of Vladimir Putin to ruin Western elections so he can continue to under mine Western democracies and continue his destiny to rule the world.

I am not the one making the claims about this. My point is that it should concern all people in Britain - who care enough about their democracy and their nation that is - whether the result was “fair and square” or not.

It is people like May who are making the accusations against Russia. I presume that you trust the person leading Brexit to be attempting to act in what they perceive as being Britain’s best interest?

Why would I trust Theresa May who was a remainer and believes in globalism? I don't believe anything she says.

I didn’t ask whether you trusted May.

I asked whether you trusted whether May is attempting to act in what she perceives as being in Britain’s best interest.

That’s an entirely different question.

swampgas · 14-11-2017 08:13PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

It's fundamentalist alright, I believes the spoils of victory should go to the winning side and I want to see Brexit delivered and I don't care how it's done except the fundamentals on the SM and CU. Theresa May is weak and comes across as such and as she doesn't believe in it, it's time to get rid of her.

That's not exactly how most democracies work - they usually try to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. What you're describing would be closer to Genghis Khan slaughtering everyone who stood in his way.

Do you think that 52% should be able to steamroll the 48% just because they have a majority? Do you fear that's what would happen to you if you were ever in the minority?

I'm genuinely curious ...

Really Interested · 14-11-2017 08:14PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Doesn't matter who it is, the only requirement is they must believe in Brexit. And then preferably get rid of the remain squad.

Borris only believes in Borris and in his mind is the reincarnation of Churchill.

solodeogloria · 14-11-2017 08:35PM

swampgas wrote: »

That's not exactly how most democracies work - they usually try to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. What you're describing would be closer to Genghis Khan slaughtering everyone who stood in his way.

Do you think that 52% should be able to steamroll the 48% just because they have a majority? Do you fear that's what would happen to you if you were ever in the minority?

I'm genuinely curious ...

Good evening!

If remain won the referendum would you say the same thing?

I wouldn't be, and if you wouldn't then this is just hypocrisy surely?

Brexit is happening, and of course MPs will represent constituents along the way. Hardly tyranny in any case.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

ambro25 · 14-11-2017 08:35PM

swampgas wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Doesn't matter who it is, the only requirement is they must believe in Brexit. And then preferably get rid of the remain squad.

There's a fundamentalist, isolationist, quasi-religious vibe to statements like that.

Almost like you want to pull up the drawbridge on the rest of the world and hunker down in your bunker in case you get infected by strange foreign ideas and lose your sense of identity.

Is it wrong/perverse to wish for either Boris or Rees-Mogg to get into no.10, when I read a post like A Little Pony's?

The global and collective 'WTF' at that occasion, would be something to behold! :pac:

Nody · 14-11-2017 08:43PM

ambro25 wrote: »

Is it wrong/perverse to wish for either Boris or Rees-Mogg to get into no.10, when I read a post like A Little Pony's?

The global and collective 'WTF' at that occasion, would be something to behold! :pac:

Sorry but wishing Boris as PM on a country is a tier worse than wishing them Trump for president

swampgas · 14-11-2017 08:51PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

If remain won the referendum would you say the same thing?

I wouldn't be, and if you wouldn't then this is just hypocrisy surely?

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A close vote (either way) should be a wake up call that there are serious issues that are not being addressed. If remain had won by a similarly narrow margin, I would still be very concerned that almost half the country felt so dissatisfied with the status quo.

I think wedge issues that divide a country, especially when the divide is approx 50:50, are very damaging for nation states. The US and the UK are two countries very divided right now. People get split out into factions and start to see themselves as "teams", and their team has to beat the other team. MLP's quote is a classic example of that.

Part of the problem (IMO) is over a hundred years of first past the post politics. It leads to two party politics and extremism.

IMO Brexit is a symptom of the fractured state of the British people, of their politics, and of their sense of identity. The very fact that Brexit is being discussed in such partisan them-and-us language reflects that. Instead of finding common ground they are dehumanising each other.

Unfortunately there is not much scope for finding any middle ground in the current poisonous political atmosphere. But common ground and consensus will be needed if the UK is ever to recover, never mind thrive.

listermint · 14-11-2017 09:40PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

If remain won the referendum would you say the same thing?

I wouldn't be, and if you wouldn't then this is just hypocrisy surely?

Brexit is happening, and of course MPs will represent constituents along the way. Hardly tyranny in any case.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

You wouldn't be here if remain won.

If you recall you voted remain.

Or did you....

..... ..

murphaph · 14-11-2017 09:43PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

They will have to accept it, NI is part of the UK, we go with the "deal" with the rest of the UK. Everyone in the UK had a vote on the issue and the majority decided to leave.

You have no idea how precarious Brexit makes the union. NI will soon be the focus of the same "why do we send so much money there?" mentality that drove Brexit.

GB is going to batten down the hatches as the economy contracts due to Brexit. There simply won't be the same money around to prop up NI.

Water John · 14-11-2017 10:08PM

You will also have the reorganisation of Westminister where reps from Wales, Scotland and NI won't be allowed have a vote on UK issues.
Those areas will be of little concern to the UK Cabinet.

Calina · 14-11-2017 10:10PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/930439097319067651

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union

Not sure we need to wait for the sectoral analysis for automotive...

Anthracite · 14-11-2017 10:15PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Respectfully I disagree. The referendum was won on the basis of taking back control of borders, laws and money. Feel free to look at the Lord Ashcroft poll of leave and remain voters that ancapailldorcha keeps posting. The EEA option is a bad deal. It effectively means that Britain hasn't left the European Union. It is subject to its strictures without having regained any control. The opposite of what won the referendum.

Nonsense. None of that was what people voted on. They voted on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU.

Your post-hoc rationalisations of why 52% of voters voted in a certain manner are pure speculation and are most certainly incorrect. People voted out for a thousand different reasons - some of them undoubtedly to quit all cooperative organisations, others because they wanted the UK in the EFTA.

This matters nothing - the vote was on leaving the EU and nothing more.

blanch152 · 14-11-2017 10:22PM

Calina wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/930439097319067651

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union

Not sure we need to wait for the sectoral analysis for automotive...

Reading that is dispiriting for Irish car owners. If the UK adopt different standards to the EU, we are a very small market for RHD EU standard vehicles.

Nate--IRL-- · 14-11-2017 10:23PM

Calina wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/930439097319067651

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union

Not sure we need to wait for the sectoral analysis for automotive...

Honda UK are screwed. 1 hour of stock? Even if Brexit went well, Customs are going to destroy their supply chain.

Nate

listermint · 14-11-2017 10:25PM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Honda UK are screwed. 1 hour of stock? Even if Brexit went well, Customs are going to destroy their supply chain.

Nate

Lean system. It's the method most Lean manufacturers have to deploy its efficiency and cost saving

ambro25 · 14-11-2017 10:34PM

listermint wrote: »

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Honda UK are screwed. 1 hour of stock? Even if Brexit went well, Customs are going to destroy their supply chain.

Nate

Lean system. It's the method most Lean manufacturers have to deploy its efficiency and cost saving

I was going to opine, I bet it's no different at most other UK car plants.

Makes me wonder if Ghosn is going to leak soon, what he & Theresa spoke of back in October 2016...

Nate--IRL-- · 14-11-2017 10:37PM

listermint wrote: »

Lean system. It's the method most Lean manufacturers have to deploy its efficiency and cost saving

I can understand the necessity for lean manufacturing. However it's difficult to imagine it would deal with supply constraints, especially on the magnitude of a no-deal Brexit, particularly well.

Nate

Charles Babbage · 14-11-2017 10:39PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think a lot of the more fundamentalist unionists have seized upon Brexit as their last play in trying to lock in partition and reverse the soft unification of Ireland that a friction-less border and the GFA engendered.

It won't work, if anything it would bring forward a pro-UI vote.

As the recent Lucidtalk poll shows it will bring forward a pro-UI vote.
The problem is that if you wreck the NI economy then you make an economic model for unity hard to propose in the short term. You could have a poorer NI not happy with its lot, but where the sums make successful unity difficult. And nearly a year and half after the Brexit vote it is very very unclear what will happen.

Nody · 14-11-2017 10:41PM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

I can understand the necessity for lean manufacturing. However it's difficult to imagine it would deal with supply constraints, especially on the magnitude of a no-deal Brexit, particularly well.

It does not; I've run a chain with a bit more leeway (up to 8h delay without problem and plant stop at 100k an hour after that) and when something goes horrible wrong (bad winter storm in Europe is one coming directly to mind) and things will shut down and very senior people will be having very short conversations to the tune of "Get that **** running again or you're fired" with the people on the ground. If there are any delays the whole supply chain will be rejigged to minimize it inc. the relocation of work because it saves that much money going lean.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-11-2017 11:04PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Reading that is dispiriting for Irish car owners. If the UK adopt different standards to the EU, we are a very small market for RHD EU standard vehicles.

No worries.

You just have to love the EU for stuff like this, EU dealers can't discriminate based on right hand drive. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-89-638_en.htm

Also at this stage all the UK car makers with any sort of volume are foreign owned. So really it's down to WTO tariff on a subset of cars that couldn't be made elsewhere.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-11-2017 11:14PM

Enzokk wrote: »

But there is no passport checks when you travel from Dublin to the UK (as far as I remember) so while other people may have no right to use the CTA, who will stop them as no one should be checking who comes into the UK from Ireland?

If you fly into Dublin you need to go through passport control. However as we are in the CTA you can use your driving licence.

If you fly Ryanair you MUST have a passport or (or foreign ID card). Aer Lingus will let fly on a driving licence.

Been a while since I went by boat but you've to go through security there too.

And anecdotally the more foreign you look the more likely you are to be stopped for a check, works the other way too, if you look like a stereotypical bogger you are more likely to get stopped in the UK.

Back in the day crossing the border or even entering Belfast city centre meant having to go through proper security.

Charles Babbage · 14-11-2017 11:22PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Back in the day crossing the border or even entering Belfast city centre meant having to go through proper security.

Going into Beldast city centre required a search, but not necessarily ID.
Going over the border never required ID.

View · 14-11-2017 11:30PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/930439097319067651

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/honda-uk-warns-mps-of-consequences-of-leaving-eu-customs-union

Not sure we need to wait for the sectoral analysis for automotive...

Reading that is dispiriting for Irish car owners. If the UK adopt different standards to the EU, we are a very small market for RHD EU standard vehicles.

So?

We switch to LHD just as countries like Sweden did back in the late 60s.

Just make LHD vehicles VRT free and people will be beating down the doors to garages in the rush to switch. :-)

A Little Pony · 15-11-2017 12:22AM

swampgas;105266473

A Little Pony wrote: »

It's fundamentalist alright, I believes the spoils of victory should go to the winning side and I want to see Brexit delivered and I don't care how it's done except the fundamentals on the SM and CU. Theresa May is weak and comes across as such and as she doesn't believe in it, it's time to get rid of her.

That's not exactly how most democracies work - they usually try to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. What you're describing would be closer to Genghis Khan slaughtering everyone who stood in his way.

Do you think that 52% should be able to steamroll the 48% just because they have a majority? Do you fear that's what would happen to you if you were ever in the minority?

I'm genuinely curious ...

I expect the winning side (Brexit) to actually see Brexit delivered, what the people voted for. That's all.

Really Interested · 15-11-2017 12:29AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

swampgas;105266473

That's not exactly how most democracies work - they usually try to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. What you're describing would be closer to Genghis Khan slaughtering everyone who stood in his way.

Do you think that 52% should be able to steamroll the 48% just because they have a majority? Do you fear that's what would happen to you if you were ever in the minority?

I'm genuinely curious ...

I expect the winning side (Brexit) to actually see Brexit delivered, what the people voted for. That's all.

What do you mean by Brexit, is that Brexit with no trade deal with EU, is that Brexit where the UK remains part of FTA, or remains in Customs union? Is that Brexit where all EU citizens in UK retain the rights they had pre the Vote, is it Brexit where UK citizens in EU retain all rights they had or lose them. Genuinely curious.

Junkyard Tom · 15-11-2017 12:35AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

You could have a poorer NI not happy with its lot, but where the sums make successful unity difficult.

I would envision a gradual reduction of Britain's £10bn, over maybe 10 years, with a synchronisation/hybridisation of the north-south economy and public sector aided by the EU too.

Brexit discussion thread II

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