So this Hurricane

fryup · 15-10-2017 10:43AM

so......Darwin was downgraded too, and look at the devastation that caused

Samaris · 15-10-2017 10:44AM

The whole thing about it changing to an extratropical storm is a bit misleading. The shape of the hurricane changes, but the forces involved can be just as high or higher.

As I've followed it, it will hit the shore with the strength of a Cat 1, although it will not necessarily be a "Cat 1" as that is a hurricane definition rather than an ex-hurricane definition.

iguana · 15-10-2017 10:44AM

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

The eye has started to destabilise overnight and is no longer as large or symmetrical as it was yesterday. The winds surrounding it however are still very strong and it's currently predicted to make landfall in the south with cat 2 hurricane strength winds.

_Dara_ · 15-10-2017 10:45AM

iguana wrote: »

It was never, ever going to hit Ireland as a hurricane. Our waters are too cold for the eye to maintain integrity this far north. Doesn't mean we won't get hit by hurricane force winds though.

If we are hit with hurricane force winds, then it’s a hurricane.

We won’t be, the winds will be less forceful than hurricane speed but can still do a lot of damage.

Hurricane Debbie, people!

OldMrBrennan83 · 15-10-2017 10:45AM

This post has been deleted.

The_Valeyard · 15-10-2017 10:46AM

Samaris wrote: »

It's better to be over-prepared and it to be an anticlimax when it hits us than to be under-prepared and only realise it too late......

.......You might prepare and get lucky, you might go "Ah sure it'll be fine" and get the worst of it.

So, its like loosing your virginity.

suicide_circus · 15-10-2017 10:48AM

The_Valeyard wrote: »

So, its like loosing your virginity.

Let the juice loose!

server down · 15-10-2017 10:53AM

Patww79 wrote: »

People are saying it's being downgraded though. Where's that coming from?

Nothings been downgraded on the charts for tomorrow.

It was never going to hit Ireland as a cat 3 hurricane. It was always forecast to be an ex tropical storm. I mean if it did we would be evacuating the coast.

Scary story? It was never expected to reach Cat 3.

Turtwig · 15-10-2017 10:54AM

YeaYeaSure wrote: »

For me if they get big calls wrong a couple of times. It should call for heads to roll. It would in any other job. I am also counting under playing storms as much as over blowing them BTW.

And that's what seriously stupid about modern society, make a mistake and you should resign or be fired. Not every call can be the correct one and this culture of looking for blame leads people to be more intent on covering their own asses than proactively making a decision.

This is a chaotic storm heading our way even the slightest deviations in its track will have profound implications on its potential impact. It's almost impossible to get its exact evolution right.

fryup · 15-10-2017 11:00AM

server down wrote: »

It was never going to hit Ireland as a cat 3 hurricane. It was always forecast to be an ex tropical storm. I mean if it did we would be evacuating the coast.

imagine that scenario.....cork people staying in your house for the night, shudder the thought !!!

iguana · 15-10-2017 11:00AM

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

It's being downgraded as the eye is collapsing but that was always expected. The warnings about the worst that could to hit us haven't changed.

_Dara_ wrote: »

If we are hit with hurricane force winds, then it’s a hurricane.

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

server down · 15-10-2017 11:02AM

https://twitter.com/JoannaDonnellyL/status/919510697901424641

bnt · 15-10-2017 11:03AM

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

There seems to be some confusion as to what's going on here. For current information about the hurricane, we look at sites like Weather Underground for details. Hurricanes naturally degrade when they don't get the energy to sustain them from warm sea water. Ophelia is now over cooler water, is degrading, and is not expected to be a hurricane (technically) by the time it hits Ireland. This is not new information, and it's not a surprise that there's talk of a "downgrade" in that sense.

But (as we know from previous storms) a storm doesn't need the "hurricane" label to be enormously destructive. The storm hitting Ireland on Monday could technically fit the parameters to be called a "hurricane", but if not, it's going to be close - a "post-tropical (extratropical) cyclone", as Wunderground puts it. The "post-tropical" part refers to the fact that it's no longer in the Tropics, but doesn't mean "weaker". Some parts are still going to see winds of tropical storm force, or even "hurricane strength".

In summary: "downgrades" of Hurricane Ophelia from its current status are expected and have been all along. But "downgrade" in the technical sense doesn't automatically mean it's "fizzling out".

Harry Palmr · 15-10-2017 11:03AM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

From the NHC in Miami

ME have not updated there RED/ORANGE warnings since yesterday lunchtime which feels lazy. I'd regard the entire
country from Arklow along the south and west coasts to Malin Head as being in the RED firing line and then inland for about 80 Km at least.

Midday RTE radio news - ME info says that the strongest winds will hit East Munster/South Leinster. Yet it remains a status YELLOW, seems weird.

fryup · 15-10-2017 11:04AM

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

eye in the sky:rolleyes:

shush! its a hurricane in all but name, don't spoil the party

Atoms for Peace · 15-10-2017 11:09AM

<ominous telex sounds>

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084624.shtml?cone#contents

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-12.13,32.09,597/loc=-75.000,-27.829

super_furry · 15-10-2017 11:11AM

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

State of your bleedin' eye!

What's this going to be comparable to in Irish weather events? As severe as hurricane Charlie?

_Dara_ · 15-10-2017 11:15AM

iguana wrote: »

It isn't because, as I understand it, a hurricane is classified by the state of the eye.

No, the categories of hurricane relate to wind speed. If there are sustained category 2 wind speeds, it’s a category 2 hurricane. The state of the eye is probably linked to the speed of the wind.

fryup · 15-10-2017 11:17AM

super_furry wrote: »

What's this going to be comparable to in Irish weather events? As severe as hurricane Charlie?

i reckon (and i'm no expert mind)...but my gut feeling it will be on par with storm Darwin that we had 3 years back

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB1EG_BH6Fg

xper · 15-10-2017 11:19AM

lazybones32 wrote: »

Fcuk met eireann. All week they were saying 'it'll be lovely at the weekend; 20 degrees'. They only seem to be accurate when they predict bad weather. I'd sooner listen to a horoscope.

But it has been a lovely weekend with temperatures well above normal.

The storm is due on Monday,i.e., not the weekend, and has been flagged up in their Outlook for several days.

tomwaterford · 15-10-2017 11:23AM

Its times like this,I'm glad the house here is on top of a hill,

To paraphrase frank Boyle. ...we can sit on top here and watch the neighbouring parish drown

Samaris · 15-10-2017 11:28AM

_Dara_ wrote: »

No, the categories of hurricane relate to wind speed. If there are sustained category 2 wind speeds, it’s a category 2 hurricane. The state of the eye is probably linked to the speed of the wind.

Sort-of, you're both right.

It won't (probably) be a -hurricane-, as that is to do with the shape of the storm, rotating around an eye. As it moves northwards and meets up with the rotating wind around the polar region, it will change shape, the eye will disintegrate and it will be an "extra-tropical storm" technically. This tends to happen in the mid-northern latitudes. This has started to happen now, although it was a tad later than expected in making the change, I think.

However, this is a technical definition and means relatively little in terms of how much impact it will have. An extra-tropical storm hitting with the force of a Cat 2 hurricane is nothing to be sneezed at, whether or not it's technically classified as a hurricane.

Avatar MIA · 15-10-2017 11:28AM

fryup wrote: »

imagine that scenario.....cork people staying in your house for the night, shudder the thought !!!

I know, while they'd be around you'd be expected to use knives and forks, use toilet paper instead of yesterday's the The Sun newspaper, and possibly stop sleeping with your sister... but let's not get too crazy.

Avatar MIA · 15-10-2017 11:34AM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Its times like this,I'm glad the house here is on top of a hill,

To paraphrase frank Boyle. ...we can sit on top here and watch the neighbouring parish drown

Yeah, being on top of an exposed hill. Great place to be during the worst storm in many decades/ever recorded. :pac:

Samaris · 15-10-2017 11:39AM

Posted this in the other preparation thread over on weather (I'm a bad person, I know), but I think it's worth doing;

No harm to have water prepared too, by the way. Fill a bath or a large container with water for washing and toilet-flushing and have water prepared for drinking too.

There is a possibility of contamination of water supplies - particularly wells if the pump goes down for some time, but also large reservoirs and mains water supplies. Personally, I'm expecting some water supplies to get contaminated or cut, although not hazarding a guess as to where. Combination of whether your water supply is vulnerable to either the full force (south coast) or vulnerable to environmental hazards anyway (west & midlands).

Either way, no harm to have some preparations in place for the possibility.

tomwaterford · 15-10-2017 11:42AM

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Yeah, being on top of an exposed hill. Great place to be during the worst storm in many decades/ever recorded. :pac:

I'm buying a kite later

BillyBobBS · 15-10-2017 11:43AM

tomwaterford wrote: »

I'm buying a kite later

Be a great day for hand gliding.

qo2cj1dsne8y4k · 15-10-2017 11:43AM

Should I still put the bins out tonight?

Samaris · 15-10-2017 11:43AM

Current storm stats - downgraded to Cat 2 (as expected)

Waterford and Wexford added to Red warning zone.

Avatar MIA · 15-10-2017 11:50AM

tomwaterford wrote: »

I'm buying a kite later

Man up for fup sake, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Hang Glider FTW!

So this Hurricane

Comments