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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #1442
    keith_sixteen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 518 ✭✭✭keith_sixteen


    server down wrote: »
    Presumably from what he reads here?

    And that gives him the authority to question somebody demonstrably more qualified than him?


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    #1443
    keith_sixteen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 518 ✭✭✭keith_sixteen


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    You see all these charts on this thread.....?

    And what. You think the "RTE Weather girl" is some bimbo given a script?


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    #1444
    emeldc
    Registered Users Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭emeldc


    JackieChang wrote: »
    Should we be buying candles and torches tomorrow? Is is that bad?

    Spanish eyes it sounds like you're preparing for the zombie apocalypse. Do I really need 8 litres of water stored away?

    Absolutely. No point in looking to buy candles after the power has gone out. I have a few old oil lanterns ready to go just in case. I've taken the advice from some here by preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.


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    #1445
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    dsmythy wrote: »
    It's the inevitable beginning of the end of it as a hurricane. Irrelevant to us.

    Not completely irrelevant. The longer it holds onto it's eye, among other characteristics, the longer it remains a tropical cyclone. Which means the more likely it is to reach us with tropical characteristics.

    Also, NHC gives it more attention.


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    #1446
    Straight Talker
    Registered Users Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭Straight Talker


    Im living in Galway and we would be well used to storms on the west coast.It seems this coming storm could be the worst one yet.Obviously i hope that it doesn't turn out as bad as predicted.But im bracing myself for the worst.I just hope that any damage to property will be at a minimum.

    Cork 1990 All Ireland Senior Hurling and Football Champions



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    #1447
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    I have a hunch that one of two things are going to happen... it will hit Ireland but fail to produce anything more than a Force 10 along exposed coasts or it will shift way further east and slam into SW UK.


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    #1448
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    I have a hunch that one of two things are going to happen... it will hit Ireland but fail to produce anything more than a Force 10 along exposed coasts or it will shift way further east and slam into SW UK.

    Condemning Aidan McGivern to at least a week of wearing a Michael Fish mask.


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    #1449
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Whats the chances it shifts even further east and hits Wales instead :D

    FMI Hirlam (which after some googling I see is a Finnish model) is suggesting just that

    18Z GFS appears to have pushed the track a bit Eastwards too.

    45-515UK_uab1.GIF


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    #1450
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,149 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Whats the chances it shifts even further east and hits Wales instead :D

    FMI Hirlam (which after some googling I see is a Finnish model) is suggesting just that

    fmiuk-11-43-0_blc7.png

    If it was a snow event 100% chance. It would be comical on here if that happened. I can imagine Met Eireann going from red to orange to yellow and then just a marine warning!


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    #1451
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,542 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Whats the chances it shifts even further east and hits Wales instead :D

    FMI Hirlam (which after some googling I see is a Finnish model) is suggesting just that

    Isn't that strangely early in the day? Seems very inaccurate.


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    #1452
    Simon Gruber Says
    Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭Simon Gruber Says


    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/919298032625209345

    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/919310474805764102


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    #1453
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    18Z HIRLAM at +44. Wind direction for the South coast not as bad as first feared?

    hirlamuk-3-44-0_ngm9.png


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    #1454
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Deleted User wrote: »
    18Z GFS appears to have pushed the track a bit Eastwards too.

    45-515UK_uab1.GIF

    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:

    New Moon



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    #1455
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,908 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ophelia has arrived on sat24 infrared

    www.sat24.com

    Whoever gets it will have major structural damage

    Best we can hope for is it runs East...into the Irish Sea

    Still no indication what WILL happen but Im going for NW Mayo as my guess


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    #1456
    ch750536
    Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Deleted User wrote: »
    18Z HIRLAM at +44. Wind direction for the South coast not as bad as first feared?

    hirlamuk-3-44-0_ngm9.png

    Eye over my house. :cool:


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    #1457
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,908 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:

    GOOD!!!


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    #1458
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,143 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Deleted User wrote: »
    18Z GFS appears to have pushed the track a bit Eastwards too.

    45-515UK_uab1.GIF

    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:
    Please god
    It's terrifying !


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    #1459
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    18Z HIRLAM at +44. Wind direction for the South coast not as bad as first feared?

    hirlamuk-3-44-0_ngm9.png

    Looking ominous for the south-east coast there


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    #1460
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,542 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:

    There's a lot of precipitation on the western side of it though, so watch out for that.


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    #1461
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,866 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Deleted User wrote: »
    18Z HIRLAM at +44. Wind direction for the South coast not as bad as first feared?

    That is mean speeds. Gusts on top of that.


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    #1462
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    The downgrades have commenced.


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    #1463
    _Whimsical_
    Registered Users Posts: 7,955 ✭✭✭_Whimsical_


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looks increasing likely that the west will miss out on all the excitement yet again. :rolleyes:

    Will the eye not travel up the coast though and we will get the full blast of the gradient behind and before it?


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    #1464
    monkeynuz
    Registered Users Posts: 2,115 ✭✭✭monkeynuz


    MJohnston wrote: »
    There's a lot of precipitation on the western side of it though, so watch out for that.

    I can cope with that we're on a slope and the garden ends at the sea so anything that goes past us ends up in a massive puddle that only boats go through anyway!


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    #1465
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    The downgrades have commenced.

    You said the exact same thing this morning


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    #1466
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,542 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    The downgrades have commenced.

    You keep saying this without any evidence of downgrades


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    #1467
    h2005
    Registered Users Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭h2005


    So worst case and best case for Dublin Monday?


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    #1468
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    pauldry wrote: »
    GOOD!!!

    Not good. Celebrate the mundane if you must; I shall not. :P

    New Moon



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    #1469
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,542 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    h2005 wrote: »
    So worst case and best case for Dublin Monday?

    Read the thread!


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    #1470
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    giveitholly wrote: »
    You said the exact same thing this morning

    I'm basing my comments on what those on here who know more about the weather are posting.


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    #1471
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I wouldnt bother with HIRLAM at all. It's been like that since Wednesday. It can't pick up the depression at all.

    We're pretty much in 'the window' now for accurate forecasting. None of the charts have aligned perfectly. Some of them have Mayo/Galway in the firing line (ARPEGE showing damaging median and gusts for Connaught, Munster and South Leinster), others have it missing completely (Munster, South Leinster). Some have a more intense storm penetrating very strong winds far inland while some charts (JMA, GEM, have been unreliable so far) showing more westerly position hammering mostly just South and West coatsts, some have skewered it east slightly. I wonder what Met Eireann are thinking next.

    The ICON wind gust graph is incredible though. Hard to see it actually being THIS strong but at the same time it was the first chart to call the Eastward shift last night before some of the rest decided to line up.

    430609.png


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