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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #1412
    Mech1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭Mech1


    Eh lads,,, your rollercoaster type thingy is eh.. busted? I got on yesterday, im still goin up?


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    #1413
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    From NOAA http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../142036.shtml?

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W
    ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
    (205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand
    substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are
    expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


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    #1414
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users Posts: 35,863 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    “Ophelia was a cyclone, tempest
    a god damned hurricane
    your common sense
    your best defense
    lay wasted and in vain”
    ―Natalie Merchant 1998


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    #1415
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Eye probability forecast, showing the eye gone by tomorrow night.

    2017AL17_EYEPFCST_201710141800.GIF


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    #1416
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Really not sure about ventusky forecast. Hovering over the storm in real time shows 60mph wind when we know it to be almost double that.


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    #1417
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Jobs OXO wrote: »
    Are we talking oiche na ghaoithe proportions now ?

    The current forecast winds are nothing we haven't seen before, we had hurricane force storms in Donegal in 2012 and 1998 and survived to tell the tale, most guidance is suggesting storm force 10 or 11 on Monday.

    Falling trees will be the main danger along with the fact that the winds are across a large and more densely populated area


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    #1418
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hirlam continues to track the low right over the country. 18z update:

    wind10mkt_046.jpg?2017101418

    New Moon



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    #1419
    Dow99
    Registered Users Posts: 275 ✭✭Dow99


    crashadder wrote: »
    having lived most of my life in the rather warm part of the world i dont know what to expect or do in terms of preparation. How bad is this going to hit Dublin ?

    It's not going to be a cold event. Think of Florida which is also a warm part of the world and would have this kind of weather regularly. This is also an event that does not regularly hit Dublin so use caution & commonsense ( torch, charge phone, extra food, do not travel during the storm)


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    #1420
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    This reminds me of watching Cyclone Treacy as a 12 year old in 1988. Updates on the cyclone from it's development around 20th December 1974 until it hit Darwin, Australia in the early hours of Christmas Day. The full film was on youtube but gone now. It was well done. Totally off topic but made around 1986 with Kate Ritchie (Sally in Home and Away) in it.


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    #1421
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest winds (21Z) max 87 knots east of centre.

    2017AL17_MPSATWND_201710142100_SWHR.GIF


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    #1422
    Romantic Rose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 491 ✭✭Romantic Rose


    It's quite windy here already (South Donegal).


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    #1423
    monkeynuz
    Registered Users Posts: 2,115 ✭✭✭monkeynuz


    Romantic Rose wrote: »
    It's quite windy here already (South Donegal).

    Been very windy here in southest westest kerry since early ish evening


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    #1424
    dball
    Registered Users Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭dball


    getting very windy down on the Dingle peninsula.


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    #1425
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hirlam continues to track the low right over the country. 18z update:

    wind10mkt_046.jpg?2017101418

    That's impressive 50-60knot (100km) mean winds at rosslare at 4pm so looking at about 4 hours of winds that speed judging by the location of the storm?

    To put that in perspective the max gust here in the 1998 storm was 105km/h and I remember being on the town that day and there were slates flying everywhere and chimneys falling down. Gusts from Opehilia look like they could be much higher


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    #1426
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest structure at 2020Z, showing the eye opening to the southwest.

    Windsat 37 GHz H

    20171014.1940.coriolis.x.37h.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-353N-251W.75pc.jpg


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    #1427
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    It's only west of the Strait of Gibraltar


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    #1428
    mel.b
    Registered Users Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭mel.b


    nagdefy wrote: »
    This reminds me of watching Cyclone Treacy as a 12 year old in 1988. Updates on the cyclone from it's development around 20th December 1974 until it hit Darwin, Australia in the early hours of Christmas Day. The full film was on youtube but gone now. It was well done. Totally off topic but made around 1986 with Kate Ritchie (Sally in Home and Away) in it.

    I was reading about hurrican debbie earlier today and there wasn't the technology to track it...so much so that they only knew where it was after it passed the Azores because a commerical plane encountered it!

    Then cyclone tracey, i'm australian but born a few years after it. I remeber watching a documentry about it & the evacuation of Darwin afterwards and how the media had to almost smuggle and lie to get the film out of darwin to the networks in melbourne and sydney because priority was given to residents evacuating.

    It's so diffrent to now, whh is almost up to the minute reporting and certainly will be once the storm actually hits.


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    #1429
    my3cents
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,764 ✭✭✭my3cents


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Latest structure at 2020Z, showing the eye opening to the southwest.

    .....

    Is that good or bad?


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    #1430
    Den Creed
    Registered Users Posts: 20 ✭Den Creed


    monkeynuz wrote: »
    Been very windy here in southest westest kerry since early ish evening

    Fairly windy in East kerry aswell, Kerry/Cork boarder region


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    #1431
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hirlam continues to track the low right over the country. 18z update:

    Whats the chances it shifts even further east and hits Wales instead :D

    FMI Hirlam (which after some googling I see is a Finnish model) is suggesting just that

    fmiuk-11-43-0_blc7.png


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    #1432
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,566 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Eye probability forecast, showing the eye gone by tomorrow night.

    2017AL17_EYEPFCST_201710141800.GIF

    If the eye got that close to Ireland it would still be amazing.

    I'd be surprised if it's still there before tomorrow afternoon to be honest.


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    #1433
    flaneur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 960 ✭✭✭flaneur


    It still has a fair distance of relatively cold water to track across, so it could yet change quite a bit.


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    #1434
    keith_sixteen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 518 ✭✭✭keith_sixteen


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    She's fine when she's written the script and learnt it fully but if it's breaking news so to speak then she's all over the shop.

    The forecast itself felt inaccurate and vague in it's representation of the now likely track.

    She's a qualified meteorologist. You are a nobody on the internet. What the hell do you know about the "likely track"?


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    #1435
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Whats the chances it shifts even further east and hits Wales instead :D

    FMI Hirlam (which after some googling I see is a Finnish model) is suggesting just that

    Saw that on Metociel, storm loses its shape completely.


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    #1436
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    Anything to be said for another mass?


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    #1437
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    keith_sixteen wrote: »
    She's a qualified meteorologist. You are a nobody on the internet. What the hell do you know about the "likely track"?

    Presumably from what he reads here?


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    #1438
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Romantic Rose wrote: »
    It's quite windy here already (South Donegal).

    This has nothing to do with Ophelia really, it's actually due to be extremely calm wind wise Sunday evening into early Monday morning.


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    #1439
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    keith_sixteen wrote: »
    She's a qualified meteorologist. You are a nobody on the internet. What the hell do you know about the "likely track"?

    You see all these charts on this thread.....?


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    #1440
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Can we please have a moritorium on talking about the rte forecast tonight
    Tomorrow's output from the met will be Bionic,you can be guaranteed
    Let's stick to information here and advice


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    #1441
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,513 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    my3cents wrote: »
    Is that good or bad?

    It's the inevitable beginning of the end of it as a hurricane. Irrelevant to us.


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