Brexit discussion thread II

FrancieBrady · 03-10-2017 12:05PM

joe40 wrote: »

I cross the border everyday for work as do hundreds/thousands of others in both directions. A hard border will be a disaster on so many levels, but it is hard to see how it can be avoided.

I crossed it 6 times this morning on a short trip.

A fence/wall is not a workable solution. Just as Trump's Mexican wall was not feasible.

Samaris · 03-10-2017 12:09PM

murphaph wrote: »

The EU will foot the bill as a whole. They know we didn't ask to be thrown under the bus by our crazy neighbours.

It won't be perfect but you can set up a rudimentary regime if you have done some planning.

I'd say we'll certainly get help with it, but other EU countries have landborders with non-EU countries too, so we'll probably be expected to make the best of it same as they have, however that's been brought about (I don't know if the EU contributes towards those - probably should, since the border countries are protecting the inner countries from having to spend too much on that themselves.)

We will have to man it though, and if the UK get very stroppy, possibly alone. Ireland is at a disadvantage to the UK there, since, let's face it, we have no reason to believe that EU standards will drop and if EU goods get onto the British market, they shouldn't, but there probably won't be a standards or safety issue. We have no idea whatsoever what British standards will be like if they drop them for competitiveness' sake (which is what every indication so far leads to) and partly for our own citizens and partly for our duty to the common market, we can't let those into general circulation in the south.

Given our geographical position, it will be relatively more difficult for these goods to get into the rest of the EU, but Ireland is in the tighter corner in terms of the border, should the UK continue on its course to let the rest of the world hang and screw its neighbours (again, which every indication so far leads to).

Actually, this is probably why the EU countries as a whole are so insistent on this point being laid to rest before moving on - we have all seen what the British approach to this has been like, and there is little reason to believe that the UK will deal honestly without being pinned to a wall on this.

joe40 · 03-10-2017 12:10PM

A fence/wall is absolutely not workable. They will set up some controls and accept the leaks of which there will be plenty, both goods and people. Smugglers paradise

steddyeddy · 03-10-2017 12:14PM

The European Parliament has voted to delay the UK's progression to the next stage of talks as sufficient progress has not been made. The vote passed by 557 to 92. From the Independent.

The European Parliament is calling for Brexit talks to be delayed after it warned that "sufficient progress has not yet been made" on key areas, including citizens’ rights and the so-called divorce bill.

MEPs overwhelmingly backed a resolution saying not enough progress on key separation issues had been made.

They and warned that a “major breakthrough” was now needed to reenergise talks.

The vote represents a blow to Theresa May, who had hoped that her speech in Florence would act as a catalyst for talks to move to the future relationship between the UK and Brussels.

MEPs passed the resolution, drawn up by the Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group, following a debate on Tuesday morning with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

It was approved by a vote of 557 to 92 with 29 abstentions.

mountaintop · 03-10-2017 12:17PM

Did anyone notice Ray Bassett, Ireland's one time ambassador to Canada call recently for Ireland to seriously consider leaving the E.U. along with Britain? He was interviewed on RTE newsand I was glad to see that he appeared rather uncomfortable spouting a strategy that would send Ireland straight back to the era of the donkey and cap tipping the Brits. What people don't realise is that his views were canvassed and instigated as part of Michael Gove's what is called 'Policy Exchange', it's basically a mouthpiece for Gove to put forward his self interest pro Brexit views. The man is such a weasel. The Sunday Times is the only newspaper I know that highlighted the Gove link. This whole Brexit debate is based on lies and falsehoods that pander to peoples narrow racist angst when in reality they are expressing dissatisfaction with their own lives and Europe is being used as the scapegoat. They should look closer to home for causes to their problems. Give me what they call faceless European bureaucrats anyday rather than the Tory scoundrels everyone actually knows the faces of. Britain leaving the E.U. undermines the vision of a pan European consensus in favour of the blinkered self obsession of the nation state. Britain has a blinkered vision of its past, and I believe it's its ambition to go back to it that is the heart of Brexit. When the dust settles, and Britain is sailing its two new aircraft carriers around the world and is suddenly struggling to pay for their upkeep, when it realises that leaving Europe did not, after all, solve ts problems (has everyone forgotten what the pre-Europe days of the 1970s) what will they do, say sorry, we got it wrong? The Goves and Johnson's and the Solo's of this site will be very quiet I imagine, but by then it will be too late!

Water John · 03-10-2017 12:20PM

Yeah Corbyn and labour will be in govn't and they'll blame them.

steddyeddy · 03-10-2017 12:25PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

Morning S.

Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement

Or the UK could be more sensible in discussing trade and customs terms.

for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.

The EU is being flexible. I think the UK should too.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

No, thank you!

Professor Moriarty · 03-10-2017 12:32PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The European Parliament has voted to delay the UK's progression to the next stage of talks as sufficient progress has not been made. The vote passed by 557 to 92. From the Independent.

The Tory press will be even more righteously indignant over the next few days. Tick tock.

Nody · 03-10-2017 12:40PM

As a side note Tory continues to show their disconnect with the world; how to fix the missing EU workers at farms? Well no problem says Tory MP Craig Mackinlay:

I was struggling to think why wouldn't a youngster from Glasgow without a job come down to the south to work for a farm for the summer with loads of gorgeous EU women working there?"

"What's not to like? Get on your bike and find a job.

There ya go; farm worker problem solved for UK after Brexit!

Samaris · 03-10-2017 12:43PM

Nody wrote: »

As a side note Tory continues to show their disconnect with the world; how to fix the missing EU workers at farms? Well no problem says Tory MP Craig Mackinlay:

I was struggling to think why wouldn't a youngster from Glasgow without a job come down to the south to work for a farm for the summer with loads of gorgeous EU women working there?"

"What's not to like? Get on your bike and find a job.

There ya go; farm worker problem solved for UK after Brexit!

...And the award for most spectacular missing of the point goes to Tory MP Craig Mackinley.

Has he been under a rock for two years?

Gerry T · 03-10-2017 12:46PM

solodeogloria wrote:

Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.

The EU will discuss trade, but as agreed with the UK first substantial progress on an agreement on the border, and who pays for what.
The UK can't be trusted, the way their playing this now, they want to stop talking about the split and say it's the EUs fault and the EU isn't flexible. If only the UK stopped moving the goal posts.
As it stands the UK is leaving the EU and their suggesting no border??? How's that going to work, can you give more detail on what happens to people traversing EU into UK, what happens with goods traversing EU into UK?

ambro25 · 03-10-2017 12:59PM

murphaph wrote: »

That's what I said, isn't it? :-)

They either levy tariffs on goods crossing the Irish border from the EU or they levy no tariffs on any goods coming from anywhere (well, from any WTO country...are there any non-WTO countries they can agree trade deals with lol).

To an extent yes

My remark came more from the other (exporting-) side of the coin: even if the UK levied no tariffs (in contravention of WTO terms), UK goods would still get tariffed around the world regardless (by importing WTO members unwilling to breach WTO terms)...

...only, they'd likely end up being tariffed not at WTO MFN levels, but at full-fat WTO levels

A.k.a. "how to tank your national economy down into the 6th depth of hell inside a couple of years" (at best).

Zubeneschamali · 03-10-2017 01:01PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The vote passed by 557 to 92. From the Independent.

Who on earth are the 92 eejits who think progress has been made?

ambro25 · 03-10-2017 01:05PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The European Parliament has voted to delay the UK's progression to the next stage of talks as sufficient progress has not been made. The vote passed by 557 to 92. From the Independent.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Who on earth are the 92 eejits who think progress has been made?

UKIP MEPs, Tory MEPs and other anti-EU (EU27) MEPs?

EDIT: the detailed vote results are here (select 03 October),
EDIT 2: worked it out based on the 29 abstentions, it's reference B8-0538/2017 - Résolution (obviously enough, with plenty of hinsight!)

So here are the 92 who voted against:

ECR: Barekov, Belder, van Dalen, Dalton, Dohrmann, Dzhambazki, Hannan, Henkel, Jurek, Kölmel, Krupa, Lucke, Marias, Messerschmidt, Nicholson, Piecha, Piotrowski, Ruohonen-Lerner, Starbatty, Sulík, Swinburne, Theocharous, Tomaševski, Tomašić, Trebesius, Ujazdowski, Zīle
EFDD: Agnew, Aker, Arnott, Batten, Bergeron, Bullock, Carver, Coburn, (The Earl of) Dartmouth, Etheridge, Farage, Finch, Gill Nathan, Hookem, Iwaszkiewicz, Lundgren, Nuttall, O'Flynn, Parker, Payne, Reid, Winberg
ENF: Annemans, Arnautu, Atkinson, Bay, Bilde, Bizzotto, Borghezio, Boutonnet, Briois, Ciocca, Elissen, Ferrand, Fontana, Goddyn, de Graaff, Jalkh, Jamet, Lebreton, Lechevalier, Loiseau, Martin Dominique, Marusik, Mélin, Monot, Pretzell, Salvini, Schaffhauser, Stuger, Troszczynski, Zanni, Zijlstra
GUE/NGL: Flanagan, Pimenta Lopes, Viegas
NI: Dodds, Epitideios, Fountoulis, Gollnisch, James, Korwin-Mikke, Synadinos, Voigt, Woolfe

Now the UKIP MEPs are there indeed, unsurprisinglym, and I've certainly spotted some Front National MEPs' names as well. Someone else works out the others' national party tag/affiliation if they feel like it

jm08 · 03-10-2017 01:19PM

Nody wrote: »

China built a railway line all the way to the Tibet going up over 5000 meters over sea through the mountains; I think you overestimate the complexity by comparison.

They also built a dam that displaced a couple of million people.

Samaris wrote: »

I'd say we'll certainly get help with it, but other EU countries have landborders with non-EU countries too ....

There are double the number of border crossing between NI & ROI as there are on the whole of the EU's eastern border.

First Up · 03-10-2017 01:37PM

jm08 wrote:

There are double the number of border crossing between NI & ROI as there are on the whole of the EU's eastern border.

Where you have borders, you have smugglers. Some get caught, some don't. It counts for little in the big scheme of things. No UK company can base its trade with the EU on smuggling. A few fuel trucks or cattle is a local issue.

There will be a border and it will be controlled for commercial traffic.

Samaris · 03-10-2017 01:39PM

jm08 wrote: »

There are double the number of border crossing between NI & ROI as there are on the whole of the EU's eastern border.

That is definitely a difficulty - and I'm not sure what the solution is, since you can apparently walk for miles and not be entirely sure which country you're in.

The only obvious solution comes right back to walls and fences, which would be deeply unpopular, especially for those that live on the border.

Sam Russell · 03-10-2017 02:05PM

Do the UK operate their Border Force on French soil? Could not agreement be reached for the EU Border Force not get agreement to operate a trade/customs post at the various ports in NI to check goods into NI? Obviously a bit of imagination would be needed, but it would be better than an imaginary border on the A1/M1 in Newery.

Nody · 03-10-2017 02:23PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Do the UK operate their Border Force on French soil? Could not agreement be reached for the EU Border Force not get agreement to operate a trade/customs post at the various ports in NI to check goods into NI? Obviously a bit of imagination would be needed, but it would be better than an imaginary border on the A1/M1 in Newery.

That's basically what the EU parliament proposed by putting NI in the EU Customs union and UK's government response was a hard no. It's by far the best solution technical/implementation perspective but between DUP and Tories it will not happen because NI must suffer the same pain as the rest of the UK.

solodeogloria · 03-10-2017 02:27PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Do the UK operate their Border Force on French soil? Could not agreement be reached for the EU Border Force not get agreement to operate a trade/customs post at the various ports in NI to check goods into NI? Obviously a bit of imagination would be needed, but it would be better than an imaginary border on the A1/M1 in Newery.

Good afternoon!

Why should goods be restricted into one part of the United Kingdom from another part of the United Kingdom?

Again, the UK are never going to agree a hard border within the UK. It isn't a goer. Northern Ireland's economy is far more dependent on the rest of Britain than it is to the rest of Ireland.

This is why the EU need to consider proposing a distinct solution on the Irish border. Not off the shelf, but particularly considered to the circumstances of Brexit and the Irish border. The UK are willing to discuss this, and have proposals that can be worked on. It depends on the EU giving up this silly nonsense of "sufficient progress" meaning 100% agreement with them on every issue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flatty · 03-10-2017 02:28PM

I'm looking at schools in Ireland this month.

Nate--IRL-- · 03-10-2017 02:31PM

Unfortunately this is not possible without Customs/ Regulatory compatibility. The Current Customs compatibility that allows the current non-border to function will cease to be once the UK leave the Customs union.

There is no squaring this circle - either either there is a custom/regulatory union - or a border.

Nate

swampgas · 03-10-2017 02:32PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Why should goods be restricted into one part of the United Kingdom from another part of the United Kingdom?

Because one part is on a different island with a complex land border with an EU neighbour? Because it might help address issues with the GFA after Brexit? Because it might be part of a creative and flexible solution to the impact of Brexit on NI?

Again, the UK are never going to agree a hard border within the UK. It isn't a goer. Northern Ireland's economy is far more dependent on the rest of Britain than it is to the rest of Ireland.

Never say never. We're being creative and flexible, remember.

This is why the EU need to consider proposing a distinct solution on the Irish border. Not off the shelf, but particularly considered to the circumstances of Brexit and the Irish border.

An internal border between NI and GB is a distinct solution for the Irish border. Surely all those technical marvels that were going to work on making the Ireland-NI border "frictionless" would work even better on the NI-GB border?

Enzokk · 03-10-2017 02:33PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Why should goods be restricted into one part of the United Kingdom from another part of the United Kingdom?

Again, the UK are never going to agree a hard border within the UK. It isn't a goer. Northern Ireland's economy is far more dependent on the rest of Britain than it is to the rest of Ireland.

This is why the EU need to consider proposing a distinct solution on the Irish border. Not off the shelf, but particularly considered to the circumstances of Brexit and the Irish border. The UK are willing to discuss this, and have proposals that can be worked on. It depends on the EU giving up this silly nonsense of "sufficient progress" meaning 100% agreement with them on every issue.

Because you cannot have your cake and eat it. The UK cannot decide to leave the customs union and not have a border, because that is what they want. Its time for Brexiteers to get real about solutions instead of hopeful fantasies.

ambro25 · 03-10-2017 02:34PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is why the EU need to consider proposing a distinct solution on the Irish border.

No.

The UK initiated the stalemate by nayin'g the EU's proposals based on realistic and precedent-based solutions (per Nody's post above, and tons more earlier in t'thread)

The UK failed to provide its own realistic solutions by way of counter-proposals.

It is not up to the EU to unlock that stalemate.

It is up to the UK to provide its own realistic solutions by way of counter-proposals.

Which you say exist:

solodeogloria wrote: »

Not off the shelf, but particularly considered to the circumstances of Brexit and the Irish border. The UK are willing to discuss this, and have proposals that can be worked on

and details of which I've asked you for about 2 hours ago:

ambro25 wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote:

Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.

Details, please?

?

solodeogloria wrote: »

It depends on the EU giving up this silly nonsense of "sufficient progress" meaning 100% agreement with them on every issue

The first substantive act of Mr Davis when the negotiations opened, was to formally agree to this 'silly nonsense' as you put it.

I'm not the first poster to ask you why should the EU consent to Mr Davis (embodying the UK in the negotiations) now be allowed to u-turn on his earlier commitment.

Time to sh1t or get off the pot, solo.

sylvanb · 03-10-2017 02:36PM

Interesting that Ming Flanagan voted against the resolution, looks like the only MEP from ROI who voted that way.

jm08 · 03-10-2017 02:50PM

First Up wrote: »

Where you have borders, you have smugglers. Some get caught, some don't. It counts for little in the big scheme of things. No UK company can base its trade with the EU on smuggling. A few fuel trucks or cattle is a local issue.

There will be a border and it will be controlled for commercial traffic.

Its not about a bit of cigarette smuggling, its about maintaining the integrity of Ireland as a premium food producer. Cattle smuggling is not a local issue as Ireland exports most of its beef. Only for the quick actions of the Irish food inspectors, Ireland's reputation could have been ruined by the horsemeat scandal (horsemeat being imported from Romania as beef for burgers).

jm08 · 03-10-2017 02:56PM

Nody wrote: »

That's basically what the EU parliament proposed by putting NI in the EU Customs union and UK's government response was a hard no. It's by far the best solution technical/implementation perspective but between DUP and Tories it will not happen because NI must suffer the same pain as the rest of the UK.

What would you expect Brokenshire to say at the Conservative & Unionist Party Conference conference! Yea, we're going to throw the DUP under a bus?

FrancieBrady · 03-10-2017 03:11PM

Nody wrote: »

That's basically what the EU parliament proposed by putting NI in the EU Customs union and UK's government response was a hard no. It's by far the best solution technical/implementation perspective but between DUP and Tories it will not happen because NI must suffer the same pain as the rest of the UK.

The British also said they would never negotiate with 'terrorists'. But they were and did.

Take Brokenshire's bluster with a bit of salt. If the only thing between them and a deal is this, the DUP will be bought or sidelined.

Chips Lovell · 03-10-2017 03:41PM

Since May confirmed she'd like to remain in the single market for a transition period, I'm inclined to believe that the most likely outcome may be a de facto Norway model. By that I mean that the UK will be officially leaving the single market, but the can will be kicked down the road indefinitely.

All the thorny points for internal foes, such as freedom of movement, payment into the EU budget, and adhering to the ECJ could be surmounted on the basis of it being a temporary arrangement.

There's no end of reasons for continually pushing the date back, such as waiting on strategy reports, committees, institutional preparations etc. It's the "least worst" solution and would probably be fine with half the conservative party and most of the opposition.

While there was a majority for Brexit, there is no majority consensus on what to replace EU membership with and that's the kind of obstacle that could allow the UK to continue in a workable stasis.

Brexit discussion thread II

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