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Brexit discussion thread II

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  • #3962
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,022 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    The border is 500 km long, and does not follow any natural boundary like a river or mountain range.

    There are more than 200 roads crossing the border. Many were blocked or blown up by the British Army during the troubles, and then quietly re-opened by locals. Many, many times.

    There are roads that cross and recross the border multiple times going from A to B. There are farms that straddle the border. There are probably farm sheds that have a door either side.

    It simply isn't a border that can be closed without huge, huge investment: compulsory purchases, land clearance, wholesale road closures, destruction of the livelihoods of people, farms and whole towns. And the locals will not co-operate with any such efforts.

    A lot of the posters seem unaware of how complex the geography/topography is.


  • #3963
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    A lot of the posters seem unaware of how complex the geography/topography is.
    China built a railway line all the way to the Tibet going up over 5000 meters over sea through the mountains; I think you overestimate the complexity by comparison.


  • #3964
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Nody wrote: »
    So put up the concrete wall 3m high 50m in on Irish side of the border with a road next to it with a patrol driving down the road once a day.

    You should be able to do that for the cheap end of the cost of a motorway - say €5 mil per km, €2.5 billion, take about 20 years to complete.


  • #3965
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    MEPs are going to vote on a motion that states the UK's approach to financial issues, such as the divorce bill has "seriously impeded" talks. The first bit in bold is great advice for the UK right now, this is not about you Boris, nor is it about the Tory party. The British people need to get angry at the fact that people like Boris and Jacob are destroying their country based on some sick power play. The second bit in bold details that the UK hasn't made progress on any of the important issues. Also inside, Nigel Farage claims the EU is holding the UK hostage.....

    The BBC reports on the latest.

    There has not been "sufficient progress" in Brexit talks yet to open trade discussions, EU negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested.
    He told the European Parliament Theresa May's Florence speech "gave us some openings which are starting to be reflected in the negotiations".
    MEPs are debating a motion urging any decision on the next phase of talks be delayed pending a "big breakthrough".
    The UK insists there is a new dynamic and "real momentum" behind the process.
    But during the debate in Brussels, a number of MEPs drew attention to what they claimed were divisions in the Conservative government and Mrs May's cabinet.
    Manfed Weber, a German member of the European People's Party grouping, said: "Who do I call in London - Theresa May, Boris Johnson or David Davis? Please don't put your party first".
    MEPs will vote later on a motion saying the UK's approach to financial issues has "seriously impeded" progress, a motion the UK said was drafted before the most recent round of negotiations.
    Rolling updates from the European Parliament
    What we learned from Theresa May's Florence speech
    Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage accused the EU of "treating us (the UK) like a hostage".
    "Unless we pay a ransom and meet your demands you won't have an intelligent conversation with us about trade... and no guarantee when we meet your demands you will come to us and have a sensible trade agreement," he said.
    The Department for Exiting the EU said that since Mrs May's speech "the dynamic of the negotiations has shifted and we have instilled real momentum into the talks".
    The European Parliament, home to 751 MEPs from across the EU, has no formal role in the Brexit negotiations - but will get to approve any final deal agreed between the UK and Brussels.
    Tuesday's vote in Strasbourg is not binding, but does represent a chance to "take the political temperature", BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said.
    It comes with the UK keen to start talking about what kind of trading relationship it will have with the EU after Brexit.
    The original aim had been to get the go-ahead for these discussions when EU leaders meet next month.
    But the EU says this can only happen when the European Council decides there has been "sufficient progress" on three issues: the so-called divorce bill when the UK leaves, the rights for EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU and the Northern Ireland border.


  • #3966
    flatty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,227 ✭✭✭flatty


    Teresa may is as lucky as a black cat. The only reason she is still in power, is that no one in the tory party will oust her, risking a general election.
    It is a perfect storm of unfortunate events.


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  • #3967
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,022 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    You should be able to do that for the cheap end of the cost of a motorway - say €5 mil per km, €2.5 billion, take about 20 years to complete.

    And then the cost of fixing the holes that will be constantly put in it.

    Perfectly ordinary law abiding citizens will (and already are) resist any attempt to build a wall.

    Society right along the frontier and beyond would be completely destabilised. Would that be a price worth paying when there are other options.


  • #3968
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    murphaph wrote: »
    We don't want them but we're not children. We understand that it's a choice between membership of the single market or not. It's just as much our responsibility to protect the integrity of the single market as our other EU partners. If the UK crashes out, we either police the external frontier or we will find our own exports to the rest of the single market will face inspections as if they came from the UK itself.

    Good morning!

    Ladies and gentlemen, we see that the most ardent of Euro-federalists actually want a hard border.

    Admittedly, I'm not so enthusiastic about the "integrity of the single market". Not that a progressive trading arrangement with the UK would actually undermine the "integrity of the single market".

    There are solutions to the border depending on how willing the EU are about discussing it with Britain. At present the border issue cannot be resolved until we move on to the second round of discussions.

    There are a number of options of getting there. The strongest seems to be to tie the continued shortfall of the EU budget to the transitional period.

    To Nody and anyone else who claims that putting a wall on the border would be easy, please try drive between Cavan and Monaghan on the N54 / A3. You will cross the border 4 times for a small number of km per stretch. Are you proposing customs and border controls for each of these 4 times?

    It is up to the EU to decide if they are willing to deal with the trade and customs issues on the border. Britain has been clear that it doesn't want hard infrastructure on the border and has put forward some proposals to discuss this. The EU are unwilling to discuss this. This isn't Britain's fault.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #3969
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Society right along the frontier and beyond would be completely destabilised. Would that be a price worth paying when there are other options.
    Well Ireland can leave the single market and EU in general; that's the other option if the UK government will block the idea of the control being put in the water (i.e. between UK mainland and NI). Which do you think is going to cheaper and better for Ireland in the long term? Ireland with in EU with controls on every truck going in / out of Ireland in every port or implementing a hard border in the north? Because leaving the NI border open is not going to happen; EU will then simply move the border control to encompass everything from Ireland instead with all the delays that will encompass.


  • #3970
    joe40
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,813 ✭✭✭joe40


    The British approach to the border in my opinion is totally contradictory. On one hand they claim to want a "frictionless border" in Ireland with electronic checks for goods etc. On the other hand the rhetoric is all about taking back control of their borders with special emphasis on stemming immigration.
    What will stop an EU citizen legally entering Ireland nip across the "frictionless" border and suddenly they're in the UK. It makes no sense to me but very few commentators in Britain are questioning this.


  • #3971
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,000 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    It is up to the EU to decide if they are willing to deal with the trade and customs issues on the border. Britain has been clear that it doesn't want hard infrastructure on the border and has put forward some proposals to discuss this. The EU are unwilling to discuss this. This isn't Britain's fault.


    So Brittain has in effect abdicated all responsibility of the border and how to manage it to the EU. The UK doesn't want any infrastructure on the border so that is what will happen, what happens on the other side is the EU's problem, right?

    I think this is the Jacob Rees-Mogg solution, if its not there then its not a problem. I see you follow this thinking as well.


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  • #3972
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,721 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Nody wrote: »
    China built a railway line all the way to the Tibet going up over 5000 meters over sea through the mountains; I think you overestimate the complexity by comparison.

    China's not a democracy. If you're in the way of progress good luck.


  • #3973
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,022 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nody wrote: »
    Well Ireland can leave the single market and EU in general; that's the other option if the UK government will block the idea of the control being put in the water (i.e. between UK mainland and NI). Which do you think is going to cheaper and better for Ireland in the long term? Ireland with in EU with controls on every truck going in / out of Ireland in every port or implementing a hard border in the north? Because leaving the NI border open is not going to happen; EU will then simply move the border control to encompass everything from Ireland instead with all the delays that will encompass.

    That isn't the only option here.


  • #3974
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Admittedly, I'm not so enthusiastic about the "integrity of the single market".

    As a non-member of the Royal County Down Golf Club, I am not so enthusiastic about their £200 a round fees for visitors.


  • #3975
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    That isn't the only option here.
    If UK refuses to play ball and go for a hard brexit (which everything points towards) yes those are the only two options. UK refuses to be part of the customs union means all goods have to be checked coming in from UK territories. Now you could in theory have UK do those checks but honestly between UK refusing being under any EU legislation and control and their general incompetence in performing the duties today, why? That leaves a hard border control between NI and Ireland since UK insists that NI is to be dealt with as one union with the mainland.

    Now the alternatives that are available are all "red lines" according to what UK/EU has shared which includes:
    1. UK part of the EU customs union (not an option)
    2. NI remains in EU customs union and border control at NI ports / UK ports (DUP blocking & government saying no)
    3. UK performs the checks on behalf of EU (UK refuses to be under EU control & legislation & incompetence in execution today)
    4. EU says "screw our rules we'll remove all our controls since UK is third party country and then all countries will get same free movement over the border" (never going to happen)
    That leaves Hard border in the north OR hard border around the Island of Ireland in general at mainland to perform said controls.


  • #3976
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Nody wrote: »
    If UK refuses to play ball and go for a hard brexit (which everything points towards) yes those are the only two options. UK refuses to be part of the customs union means all goods have to be checked coming in from UK territories. Now you could in theory have UK do those checks but honestly between UK refusing being under any EU legislation and control and their general incompetence in performing the duties today, why? That leaves a hard border control between NI and Ireland since UK insists that NI is to be dealt with as one union with the mainland.

    Now the alternatives that are available are all "red lines" according to what UK has shared which includes:
    1. UK part of the EU customs union (not an option)
    2. NI remains in EU customs union and border control at NI ports / UK ports (DUP blocking & government saying no)
    3. UK performs the checks on behalf of EU (UK refuses to be under EU control & legislation & incompetence in execution today)
    That leaves Hard border in the north OR hard border around the Island of Ireland in general at mainland to perform said controls.

    Good morning!

    Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.

    Please answer my question about the N54 and A3 between Monaghan and Cavan with bits of Fermanagh in the middle.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #3977
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,022 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nody wrote: »
    If UK refuses to play ball and go for a hard brexit (which everything points towards) yes those are the only two options. UK refuses to be part of the customs union means all goods have to be checked coming in from UK territories. Now you could in theory have UK do those checks but honestly between UK refusing being under any EU legislation and control and their general incompetence in performing the duties today, why? That leaves a hard border control between NI and Ireland since UK insists that NI is to be dealt with as one union with the mainland.

    Now the alternatives that are available are all "red lines" according to what UK has shared which includes:
    1. UK part of the EU customs union (not an option)
    2. NI remains in EU customs union and border control at NI ports / UK ports (DUP blocking & government saying no)
    3. UK performs the checks on behalf of EU (UK refuses to be under EU control & legislation & incompetence in execution today)
    That leaves Hard border in the north OR hard border around the Island of Ireland in general at mainland to perform said controls.

    As long as we are in negotiations then we must insist on no hard border.

    If Britain goes out without a deal from those negotiations then we have a new ball game.


  • #3978
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    joe40 wrote: »
    The British approach to the border in my opinion is totally contradictory. On one hand they claim to want a "frictionless border" in Ireland with electronic checks for goods etc. On the other hand the rhetoric is all about taking back control of their borders with special emphasis on stemming immigration.
    What will stop an EU citizen legally entering Ireland nip across the "frictionless" border and suddenly they're in the UK. It makes no sense to me but very few commentators in Britain are questioning this.
    Yeah it's nonsense but the incompetent Home Office (which already sent illegal deportation notices to EU citizens) will, we are told, be able to ensure there is no illegal working through employment checks. Quite how a small company is supposed to verify that Pavel A is legally entitled to work in the UK and Pavel B (with good fake documents) isn't, hasn't been mentioned.

    The UK is becoming a laughing stock. Taking back control of its borders with the EU by leaving 500km of that border completely open.

    Anyway, that's their problem.

    Our problem is maintaining the integrity of the single market if (when?) the babies crash out in 2019.

    A border wall is not necessary nor practical. It would be cheaper to use a fleet of 400 drones permanently airborne, relieving each other during charging cycles and relaying anpr data to a central control centre or centres, deploying "flying squads" to intercept commercial vehicles that are not registered.

    The EU will not expect us to hermetically sealed the border. No border, even a sea border, is impenetrable. We'll be expected to do our best. The vast majority of the Irish population would opt for a border with customs controls over leaving the single market.

    Solo...please don't quote me then go on to say exactly the opposite of what I wrote. I clearly said we don't want a hardened border but we understand the necessity should our big baby of a neighbour flounce out of the single market.


  • #3979
    Lemming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,162 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    Ah, solo, nice of you to join us again for another day. Some of us are still awaiting responses to the Boeing issue & the gold-export-numbers-fudge revelation, which you have conveniently dodged thus far in your desire to be honest. And all that.


  • #3980
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Enzokk wrote: »
    So Brittain has in effect abdicated all responsibility of the border and how to manage it to the EU. The UK doesn't want any infrastructure on the border so that is what will happen, what happens on the other side is the EU's problem, right?

    I think this is the Jacob Rees-Mogg solution, if its not there then its not a problem. I see you follow this thinking as well.
    They can't abdicate all responsibility. Article 1 of GATT says you must treat all country's exports equally. If the UK levies no tariffs on EU imports at the Irish border then it can't levy tariffs on anything from anywhere!


  • #3981
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    That isn't the only option here.
    What are the other options if there's a hard Brexit and the UK won't allow NI to be part of the single market?


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  • #3982
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,986 ✭✭✭ambro25


    murphaph wrote: »
    They can't abdicate all responsibility. Article 1 of GATT says you must treat all country's exports equally. If the UK levies no tariffs on EU imports at the Irish border then it can't levy tariffs on anything from anywhere!
    More to the point, the UK could not claim the benefit of WTO MFN trading terms with 3rd party WTO members either (contrary to proposals/slogans of the most economically-illiterate Leavers, levying tariffs is not optional).
    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.
    Details, please?


  • #3983
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Or, the EU could discuss trade and customs terms and be willing to be flexible and come up with a new arrangement for a new reality and a new situation. Britain is willing to be flexible here, and I think the EU should be also.
    You mean EU should give up their core principle and lower their standards globally and remove a red line while you insist on UK should retain them? Because UK will be a third party country which means all other WTO countries have to have the same access possibilities. In fact it's the exact same thing raised earlier that you ignore as you appear to be not able to grasp the implications of what you're suggesting and the implications that would have in general.
    Please answer my question about the N54 and A3 between Monaghan and Cavan with bits of Fermanagh in the middle.
    Right after you answer the questions raised to you in regards to Bombardier toll war with the US that you've ignored since post 3753.


  • #3984
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,022 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    murphaph wrote: »
    What are the other options if there's a hard Brexit and the UK won't allow NI to be part of the single market?

    There are other options while we are negotiating a deal, is my point.
    A no deal scenario is different and the consequences will be the same, unfortunately in my opinion. Underlining yet again what a disaster this Brexit ref was.


  • #3985
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    ambro25 wrote: »
    More to the point, the UK could not claim the benefit of WTO MFN trading terms with 3rd party WTO members either (contrary to proposals/slogans of the most economically-illiterate Leavers, levying tariffs is not optional).
    That's what I said, isn't it? :-)

    They either levy tariffs on goods crossing the Irish border from the EU or they levy no tariffs on any goods coming from anywhere (well, from any WTO country...are there any non-WTO countries they can agree trade deals with lol).


  • #3986
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,862 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    murphaph wrote: »
    If the UK levies no tariffs on EU imports at the Irish border then it can't levy tariffs on anything from anywhere!

    'No tariffs from anywhere' is a genuine suggestion of Boris and one of his favored private think-tanks The Institute for Free Trade.


  • #3987
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    There are other options while we are negotiating a deal, is my point.
    A no deal scenario is different and the consequences will be the same, unfortunately in my opinion. Underlining yet again what a disaster this Brexit ref was.
    But we're talking about the event of no deal right now. We need to prepare for no deal.


  • #3988
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,524 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    There are other options while we are negotiating a deal, is my point.
    A no deal scenario is different and the consequences will be the same, unfortunately in my opinion. Underlining yet again what a disaster this Brexit ref was.
    As the old saying goes; plan for the worst and hope for the best. As things stands there's no reason not to prepare to set up a hard border today because being realistic that's the most likely outcome and it's not something you can put in place over night without proper planning. That means planning on how are roads going to be shut down short term/long term, how many customs agents are there to be at what controls etc. How are the armed forces going to be deployed to support the border controls, the Gardai etc. All things which should be planned now rather than hoping UK will somehow suddenly regain their sanity and do a deal.


  • #3989
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Nody wrote: »
    As things stands there's no reason not to prepare to set up a hard border today because being realistic that's the most likely outcome and it's not something you can put in place over night without proper planning.

    It's not something you can put in place with a 2 billion euro budget and a 10 year run-up, either.

    And we don't have either of those.


  • #3990
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,998 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    It's not something you can put in place with a 2 billion euro budget and a 10 year run-up, either.

    And we don't have either of those.
    The EU will foot the bill as a whole. They know we didn't ask to be thrown under the bus by our crazy neighbours.

    It won't be perfect but you can set up a rudimentary regime if you have done some planning.


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  • #3991
    joe40
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,813 ✭✭✭joe40


    I cross the border everyday for work as do hundreds/thousands of others in both directions. A hard border will be a disaster on so many levels, but it is hard to see how it can be avoided.


This discussion has been closed.
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