October 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium ___ (-1) __ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 105 _ 7

Here's the breakdown of predictions of how many locations will have an air frost some time in October ... the entry under location is my guess as to the most likely stations to have an air frost, whether this is the right order or not remains to be seen but it gives some idea of who needs a frost to get to your number:

Number _ Forecaster(s) ___________ Location

0 ___ Elmer Blooker
1 ___ _________________________ Markree
2 ___ _________________________ Mountdillon
3 ___ _________________________ Ballyhaise
4 ___ sryanbruen ________________Knock
5 ___ mickger844posts ___________ Mullingar
6 ___ Mr Skinner ________________ Gurteen
7 ___ Lumi, MTC ________________ Dunsany (Grange)
8 ___ Rameire __________________ Athenry
9 ___ Bsal, dacogawa, 200motels ___ Claremorris
10 ___Sunflower3, Kindred Spirit
_______ (Consensus) _____________ Moore Park
11 ___waterways _________________Oak Park
12 ___Tae laidir, DOCARCH, pauldry, JPmarn ____ Dublin A
13 ___ NormaL __________________ Casement
14 ___John mac _________________ Phoenix Park
15 ___Rikand, Dasa29 ____________ Cork
16 ____________________________ Shannon
17 ____________________________ Finner Camp
18 ____________________________ Malin Head
19 ____________________________ Mace Head
20 ____________________________ Newport
21 ___Joe Public _________________ Belmullet
22 to 25 _________________ Valentia, Johnstown Castle, Roches Point, Sherkin Is

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Having gone through this exercise, I changed NormaL from 10 to 13. It would appear that perhaps 15 locations normally have a frost but random scatter might reduce the average to about 13. But it's probably larger than my first guesstimate for NormaL. As to this particular month, time will tell.

No frosts yet, Mountdillon low of 0.3 C on Friday morning.

After the first week ...

IMT 11.2 which is 0.2 below normal.

MAX 18.2, MIN 0.3

PRC was 61% of normal, it was almost dry in the south to near normal north.

SUN only 70% of normal (421/600 for future calculations).

Joe Public has the highest IMT forecast and the largest number of locations with a frost. I think he is looking for some sort of last minute reversal of this pattern to get that combination. If he's right it's going to be worth about a 20 point edge on the field.

After two weeks ...

IMT at 12.1 with the second week a mild 12.9, 2.2 above normal.

PRC at 73% with this past week 85% of normal.

SUN at 65% with another dull week (60% of normal). (361/600)

MAX 19.9 and MIN 0.3

Note: Max was set on 13th and tied on 14th at PP.

After four weeks, I thought at first no climate data had updated from looking at tables but the maps in the ag-met portion have updated ...

... so based on them, the values are now

IMT now about 11.4, the last week at 10.9 C.

PRC down to 93% with this past week around 55% (Malin Head estimated).

SUN improved a bit alright, to 63% with this past week 66.3%.

There was another near-frost on the 27th but MAX and MIN remain 19.9 and 0.3, with zero stations recording an air frost. Tonight looks like the only chance left.

Final values (speculating)

IMT 11.2

PRC 090

SUN 060

MAX 19.9 MIN --0.5

The MS gives the following values for October:

IMT 11.2

MAX 19.9

MIN 0.2

PRC 83%

SUN 63%

No. of air frosts __ 0 __ zero __ nada

Scoring report to follow
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Annual scoring January to October 2017

This month the scoring table is based on best 8 of 10 scores. The total scores are in the last column with their ranks but the table is determined by the scores in the second column, best 8 of 10 (en route to the final best 10 of 12 at the end of the year). There is no longer any indicator of your rank in the previous month, you'll have to check back to find that. Mr Skinner moved up four spots this month from 7th to 3rd.


rank_best 8_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT __ TOTAL

01 _ 562 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 ___ 671 ( 1)
02 _ 550 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 ___ 666 ( 2)
03 _ 545 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 ___ 636 ( 3)

04 _ 544 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 ___ 664 ( 3)

04 _ 539 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 ___ 634 ( 4)
t05_ 532 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 ___ 627 ( 7)
t05_ 532 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 ___ 532 (20)
07 _ 531 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 ___ 577 (13)
08 _ 529 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 ___ 633 ( 5)
09 _ 523 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 ___ 631 ( 6)
10 _ 515 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 ___ 617 ( 8)

t11 _507 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 ___ 589 ( 9)
t11 _507 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 ___ 576 (14)

13 _ 495 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 ___ 579 (13)

t13 _493 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 ___ 581 (11)
t13 _493 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 ___ 554 (17)
15 _ 492 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 ___ 580 (12)
16 _ 489 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 ___ 583 (10)
17 _ 486 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 ___ 572 (15)
t18 _480 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 ___ 545 (18)
t18 _480 __ M.T. Cranium ___53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 ___ 556 (16)
20 _ 460 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 ___ 540 (19)

21 _ 453 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 ___ 453 (21)

xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 164
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- ____47
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 ____46

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Some changes at the top of the scoring table with mickger844posts now in the lead after also winning October. Would say anyone in top half of the table has a good chance with two months left.