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October 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-09-2017 4:28am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Sorry I am a bit late getting to this, company etc etc ...

    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for October. The average for 1981-2010 was 10.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: How many of the 25 stations will record an air frost (0.0 C or lower) during October? (range of possible answers zero to 25)

    Here is the entry for NormaL ...

    NormaL _______ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _ 10


    Deadline: 0300h Sunday 1st of October, penalties likely to be same as usual unless I feel that the pace of entries indicates that the announcement was unfairly late, then I may extend slightly, but don't count on it.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______ 9.4 _ 19.8 _ -1.7 _ 105 _ 95 _ 4

    I'm very unsure about October 2017.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,639 ✭✭✭ Elmer Blooker


    E.B. 11.4__21.8__2.8__40__150__0

    * 21.8c at Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 10.4 _ 18.9 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 96 _ 9


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _______ 10.0 _ 19.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 90 _ 15


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_______ 10.8_ 19.7 _ -1.9 _ 100 _ 95 _ 12


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _______ 10.3 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 96 _ 7


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 95 _ 105 _ 12

    Made some changes before the deadline. My temperature guesses has been reduced by approx 1c from my original figures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _______ 11.6 _ 21.9 _ -3.6 _ 85 _ 120 _ 21


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 10.9 _ 21.7 _ -1.8 _ 131 _ 94 _ 11


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 10.4 _ 19.2 _ -3.1 _ 97 _ 108 _ 12


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,407 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _______ 10.9 _ 19.2 _ -1.5 _ 90 _ 110 _ 5


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,770 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_______ 10.6 _ 18.8 _ -1.9 _ 80 _ 92 _ 8


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_________10.8 _ 18.7 _ -1.5 _ 93 _ 116 _ 9


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____11.1_____19.4______-1.8______105______105 _______6


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3____10.8_____20.4______-2.8______95______110 _______10


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 10.6 _ 19.1 _ -2.1 _ 144 _ 72 _ 9


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 10.7 _ 18.2 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 90 _ 12

    If this bombs, I'll be blaming Uncle Arthur!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ___ (-1) __ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 105 _ 7


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 11.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 15


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_______ 9.8 _ 18.8 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 _ 14


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts October 2017


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Frosty (#)


    Joe Public ___________ 11.6 _ 21.9 _--3.6 _ 085 _ 120 ____21

    Elmer Blooker ________11.4 _ 21.8 __ 2.8 _ 040 _ 150 ____ 0

    MrSkinner ___________11.1 _ 19.4 _--1.8 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 6

    Rikand _______ (-2) __ 11.0 _ 21.0 _--3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____15

    M.T. Cranium __ (-1) __11.0 _ 20.5 _--2.9 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 7

    waterways __________ 10.9 _ 21.7 _--1.8 _ 131 _ 094 ____11

    mickger844posts _____ 10.9 _ 19.2 _--1.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5

    Sunflower3 __________10.8 _ 20.4 _--2.8 _ 095 _ 110 ____10

    Pauldry _____________10.8 _ 19.7 _--1.9 _ 100 _ 095 ____12

    200motels __________ 10.8 _ 18.7 _--1.5 _ 093 _ 116 ____ 9

    Tae laidir ___________ 10.7 _ 18.2 _--3.0 _ 125 _ 090 ____12


    Con Sensus _________ 10.7 _ 19.4 _--2.0 _ 100 _ 105 ____10


    Dacogawa ___________10.6 _ 19.1 _--2.1 _ 144 _ 072 ____ 9

    Rameire ____________ 10.6 _ 18.8 _--1.9 _ 080 _ 092 ____ 8

    Jpmarn _____________10.5 _ 20.5 _--2.7 _ 095 _ 105 ____12

    DOCARCH __________ 10.4 _ 19.2 _--3.1 _ 097 _ 108 ____12

    Bsal _______________ 10.4 _ 18.9 _--2.0 _ 115 _ 096 ____ 9

    Lumi _______________10.3 _ 19.7 _--2.5 _ 100 _ 096 ____ 7

    kindredspirit __ (-10) _ 10.3 _ 18.0 _--2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____10


    NormaL _____________10.1 _ 20.2 _--2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ____10


    Dasa29 _____________10.0 _ 19.0 _--1.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____15

    john mac ____ (-3) ____9.8 _ 18.8 _--1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____14

    sryanbruen ___________9.4 _ 19.8 _--1.7 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 4

    _______________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus is the 11th ranked value (median of 21 entries). Table now complete, good luck and welcome to Elmer Blooker.

    The group consensus calls for a rather mild October with normal amounts of rain and a bit more sunshine than usual.


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Ooops!

    kindredspirit 10.3 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 105 ___ 105 ___10


    Thanks sryanbruen


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park max 18.2 yesterday for openers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Here's the breakdown of predictions of how many locations will have an air frost some time in October ... the entry under location is my guess as to the most likely stations to have an air frost, whether this is the right order or not remains to be seen but it gives some idea of who needs a frost to get to your number:

    Number _ Forecaster(s) ___________ Location

    0 ___ Elmer Blooker
    1 ___ _________________________ Markree
    2 ___ _________________________ Mountdillon
    3 ___ _________________________ Ballyhaise
    4 ___ sryanbruen ________________Knock
    5 ___ mickger844posts ___________ Mullingar
    6 ___ Mr Skinner ________________ Gurteen
    7 ___ Lumi, MTC ________________ Dunsany (Grange)
    8 ___ Rameire __________________ Athenry
    9 ___ Bsal, dacogawa, 200motels ___ Claremorris
    10 ___Sunflower3, Kindred Spirit
    _______ (Consensus) _____________ Moore Park
    11 ___waterways _________________Oak Park
    12 ___Tae laidir, DOCARCH, pauldry, JPmarn ____ Dublin A
    13 ___ NormaL __________________ Casement
    14 ___John mac _________________ Phoenix Park
    15 ___Rikand, Dasa29 ____________ Cork
    16 ____________________________ Shannon
    17 ____________________________ Finner Camp
    18 ____________________________ Malin Head
    19 ____________________________ Mace Head
    20 ____________________________ Newport
    21 ___Joe Public _________________ Belmullet
    22 to 25 _________________ Valentia, Johnstown Castle, Roches Point, Sherkin Is

    ____________________________________________

    Having gone through this exercise, I changed NormaL from 10 to 13. It would appear that perhaps 15 locations normally have a frost but random scatter might reduce the average to about 13. But it's probably larger than my first guesstimate for NormaL. As to this particular month, time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Moore Park got to 3.3c so a bit to go yet

    Next opportunity (slight) is tomorrow night/friday morning.

    Im fearful that some locations may not get any frost in North and West due to the constant gale even on the supposed to be calm days (yesterday):pac:

    Markree usually manages a frost in October but the last 4 stations on your list are write offs,
    those coastal places were as high as 13c one or two nights last Winter while markree had an air frost.

    Also a lot of wet and windy weather in the next 10 days so Im basing my frost forecast on the last 10 days
    when I think a cool down may occur


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    No frosts yet, Mountdillon low of 0.3 C on Friday morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    No Frosts in next 10 days at least

    Maybe last week


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT 11.2 which is 0.2 below normal.

    MAX 18.2, MIN 0.3

    PRC was 61% of normal, it was almost dry in the south to near normal north.

    SUN only 70% of normal (421/600 for future calculations).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    October is looking very mild all of a sudden.

    IMT of up to 12c could be possible

    IMT is now running higher than September in Sligo

    Plus 19c on Friday and Saturday will bring IMT up further.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Joe Public has the highest IMT forecast and the largest number of locations with a frost. I think he is looking for some sort of last minute reversal of this pattern to get that combination. If he's right it's going to be worth about a 20 point edge on the field.


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