October 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Sorry I am a bit late getting to this, company etc etc ...

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for October. The average for 1981-2010 was 10.1 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: How many of the 25 stations will record an air frost (0.0 C or lower) during October? (range of possible answers zero to 25)

Here is the entry for NormaL ...

NormaL _______ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _ 10


Deadline: 0300h Sunday 1st of October, penalties likely to be same as usual unless I feel that the pace of entries indicates that the announcement was unfairly late, then I may extend slightly, but don't count on it.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _______ 9.4 _ 19.8 _ -1.7 _ 105 _ 95 _ 4

I'm very unsure about October 2017.

Elmer Blooker

E.B. 11.4__21.8__2.8__40__150__0

* 21.8c at Valentia

Bsal

Bsal _______ 10.4 _ 18.9 _ -2.0 _ 115 _ 96 _ 9

dasa29

Dasa29 _______ 10.0 _ 19.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 90 _ 15

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 10.8_ 19.7 _ -1.9 _ 100 _ 95 _ 12

Lumi

Lumi _______ 10.3 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 96 _ 7

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 10.5 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 95 _ 105 _ 12

Made some changes before the deadline. My temperature guesses has been reduced by approx 1c from my original figures.

Joe Public

Joe Public _______ 11.6 _ 21.9 _ -3.6 _ 85 _ 120 _ 21

waterways

waterways _______ 10.9 _ 21.7 _ -1.8 _ 131 _ 94 _ 11

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 10.4 _ 19.2 _ -3.1 _ 97 _ 108 _ 12

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _______ 10.9 _ 19.2 _ -1.5 _ 90 _ 110 _ 5

rameire

Rameire_______ 10.6 _ 18.8 _ -1.9 _ 80 _ 92 _ 8

200motels

200motels_________10.8 _ 18.7 _ -1.5 _ 93 _ 116 _ 9

mrskinner

Skinner____11.1_____19.4______-1.8______105______105 _______6

sunflower3

Sunflower3____10.8_____20.4______-2.8______95______110 _______10

dacogawa

Dacogawa _______ 10.6 _ 19.1 _ -2.1 _ 144 _ 72 _ 9

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 10.7 _ 18.2 _ -3.0 _ 125 _ 90 _ 12

If this bombs, I'll be blaming Uncle Arthur!

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ___ (-1) __ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 105 _ 7

Rikand

Rikand ___ 11.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 15

John mac

john mac_______ 9.8 _ 18.8 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 _ 14

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts October 2017


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Frosty (#)


Joe Public ___________ 11.6 _ 21.9 _--3.6 _ 085 _ 120 ____21

Elmer Blooker ________11.4 _ 21.8 __ 2.8 _ 040 _ 150 ____ 0

MrSkinner ___________11.1 _ 19.4 _--1.8 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 6

Rikand _______ (-2) __ 11.0 _ 21.0 _--3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____15

M.T. Cranium __ (-1) __11.0 _ 20.5 _--2.9 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 7

waterways __________ 10.9 _ 21.7 _--1.8 _ 131 _ 094 ____11

mickger844posts _____ 10.9 _ 19.2 _--1.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5

Sunflower3 __________10.8 _ 20.4 _--2.8 _ 095 _ 110 ____10

Pauldry _____________10.8 _ 19.7 _--1.9 _ 100 _ 095 ____12

200motels __________ 10.8 _ 18.7 _--1.5 _ 093 _ 116 ____ 9

Tae laidir ___________ 10.7 _ 18.2 _--3.0 _ 125 _ 090 ____12


Con Sensus _________ 10.7 _ 19.4 _--2.0 _ 100 _ 105 ____10


Dacogawa ___________10.6 _ 19.1 _--2.1 _ 144 _ 072 ____ 9

Rameire ____________ 10.6 _ 18.8 _--1.9 _ 080 _ 092 ____ 8

Jpmarn _____________10.5 _ 20.5 _--2.7 _ 095 _ 105 ____12

DOCARCH __________ 10.4 _ 19.2 _--3.1 _ 097 _ 108 ____12

Bsal _______________ 10.4 _ 18.9 _--2.0 _ 115 _ 096 ____ 9

Lumi _______________10.3 _ 19.7 _--2.5 _ 100 _ 096 ____ 7

kindredspirit __ (-10) _ 10.3 _ 18.0 _--2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____10


NormaL _____________10.1 _ 20.2 _--2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ____10


Dasa29 _____________10.0 _ 19.0 _--1.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____15

john mac ____ (-3) ____9.8 _ 18.8 _--1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____14

sryanbruen ___________9.4 _ 19.8 _--1.7 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 4

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the 11th ranked value (median of 21 entries). Table now complete, good luck and welcome to Elmer Blooker.

The group consensus calls for a rather mild October with normal amounts of rain and a bit more sunshine than usual.

kindredspirit

Ooops!

kindredspirit 10.3 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 105 ___ 105 ___10


Thanks sryanbruen

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park max 18.2 yesterday for openers.

M.T. Cranium

Here's the breakdown of predictions of how many locations will have an air frost some time in October ... the entry under location is my guess as to the most likely stations to have an air frost, whether this is the right order or not remains to be seen but it gives some idea of who needs a frost to get to your number:

Number _ Forecaster(s) ___________ Location

0 ___ Elmer Blooker
1 ___ _________________________ Markree
2 ___ _________________________ Mountdillon
3 ___ _________________________ Ballyhaise
4 ___ sryanbruen ________________Knock
5 ___ mickger844posts ___________ Mullingar
6 ___ Mr Skinner ________________ Gurteen
7 ___ Lumi, MTC ________________ Dunsany (Grange)
8 ___ Rameire __________________ Athenry
9 ___ Bsal, dacogawa, 200motels ___ Claremorris
10 ___Sunflower3, Kindred Spirit
_______ (Consensus) _____________ Moore Park
11 ___waterways _________________Oak Park
12 ___Tae laidir, DOCARCH, pauldry, JPmarn ____ Dublin A
13 ___ NormaL __________________ Casement
14 ___John mac _________________ Phoenix Park
15 ___Rikand, Dasa29 ____________ Cork
16 ____________________________ Shannon
17 ____________________________ Finner Camp
18 ____________________________ Malin Head
19 ____________________________ Mace Head
20 ____________________________ Newport
21 ___Joe Public _________________ Belmullet
22 to 25 _________________ Valentia, Johnstown Castle, Roches Point, Sherkin Is

____________________________________________

Having gone through this exercise, I changed NormaL from 10 to 13. It would appear that perhaps 15 locations normally have a frost but random scatter might reduce the average to about 13. But it's probably larger than my first guesstimate for NormaL. As to this particular month, time will tell.

pauldry

Moore Park got to 3.3c so a bit to go yet

Next opportunity (slight) is tomorrow night/friday morning.

Im fearful that some locations may not get any frost in North and West due to the constant gale even on the supposed to be calm days (yesterday):pac:

Markree usually manages a frost in October but the last 4 stations on your list are write offs,
those coastal places were as high as 13c one or two nights last Winter while markree had an air frost.

Also a lot of wet and windy weather in the next 10 days so Im basing my frost forecast on the last 10 days
when I think a cool down may occur

M.T. Cranium

No frosts yet, Mountdillon low of 0.3 C on Friday morning.

pauldry

No Frosts in next 10 days at least

Maybe last week

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT 11.2 which is 0.2 below normal.

MAX 18.2, MIN 0.3

PRC was 61% of normal, it was almost dry in the south to near normal north.

SUN only 70% of normal (421/600 for future calculations).

pauldry

October is looking very mild all of a sudden.

IMT of up to 12c could be possible

IMT is now running higher than September in Sligo

Plus 19c on Friday and Saturday will bring IMT up further.

M.T. Cranium

Joe Public has the highest IMT forecast and the largest number of locations with a frost. I think he is looking for some sort of last minute reversal of this pattern to get that combination. If he's right it's going to be worth about a 20 point edge on the field.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Joe Public has the highest IMT forecast and the largest number of locations with a frost. I think he is looking for some sort of last minute reversal of this pattern to get that combination. If he's right it's going to be worth about a 20 point edge on the field.

One countrywide freezing night should sort that :-)

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park reached 19.9 yesterday.

pauldry

14.9c tonight is 4.1c higher than my IMT

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT at 12.1 with the second week a mild 12.9, 2.2 above normal.

PRC at 73% with this past week 85% of normal.

SUN at 65% with another dull week (60% of normal). (361/600)

MAX 19.9 and MIN 0.3

Note: Max was set on 13th and tied on 14th at PP.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks, Ophelia and Brian (plus the un-named deluge) ...

IMT now at 11.6, with this past week at 10.7, which was 0.6 above normal. As the next week looks fairly mild this may finish near or a bit higher than where it is now.

PRC now 105% of normal, with 170% on average this past week. That would result in a value of about 90% if the rest of the month (today to 31st) had three quarters of the normal amount, so it could fall back below average.

SUN is now down to 62% as this past week managed only 56% (335/600). This could improve a bit perhaps but hard to see how it gets much better than 70%.

MAX 19.9 and MIN 0.3 -- there is probably a faint chance of a frost towards the end of the month. Otherwise this will go down as the lamest bonus question of them all.

pauldry

Well there was a min of -0.5c in

Ballinacarrow,
Bunninadden and Templehouse in Sligo

Unfortunately at Collooney and Markree I think it had risen to 0c so dont know if frost will count

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After three weeks, Ophelia and Brian (plus the un-named deluge) ...

MAX 19.9 and MIN 0.3 -- there is probably a faint chance of a frost towards the end of the month. Otherwise this will go down as the lamest bonus question of them all.

Just hope there are no penalties for being way off the mark

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, I thought at first no climate data had updated from looking at tables but the maps in the ag-met portion have updated ...

... so based on them, the values are now

IMT now about 11.4, the last week at 10.9 C.

PRC down to 93% with this past week around 55% (Malin Head estimated).

SUN improved a bit alright, to 63% with this past week 66.3%.

There was another near-frost on the 27th but MAX and MIN remain 19.9 and 0.3, with zero stations recording an air frost. Tonight looks like the only chance left.

Final values (speculating)

IMT 11.2

PRC 090

SUN 060

MAX 19.9 MIN --0.5

M.T. Cranium

Well usually I can confirm the IMT and PRC on the first, but "monthly data" on the met.ie website remain non-updated since 23 October. From the daily values 29-31, I believe that IMT is around 11.2 and PRC is around 90% and SUN is around 60%.

Hopefully the Monthly Summary will appear tomorrow and clarify these numbers even if monthly data do not update.

It also appears that there was no air frost, another near-miss came and went on the 30th and unless the MS says otherwise, I think Elmer pitched a perfect game (probably the wrong sports metaphor for this readership but I am almost unconscious after scoring another contest elsewhere).

Looks like MIN and SUN will require some assisted scoring. Otherwise should be fairly straightforward. For the bonus, I will give three tens, and then count down in pairs. The three tens are because Elmer obviously would get ten, in fact I may give him twelve, then of the regulars two should get ten also. I don't have that page in front of me, seems like some went for four stations so they would get the max points.

M.T. Cranium

The MS gives the following values for October:

IMT 11.2

MAX 19.9

MIN 0.2

PRC 83%

SUN 63%

No. of air frosts __ 0 __ zero __ nada

Scoring report to follow
_______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for October 2017


FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ____ Frosty (#)


mickger844posts _____ 22 _ 13 _ 18*_ 13 _ 04*____10 ______ 80

MrSkinner ___________24 _ 15 _ 15*_ 08 _ 06*____ 9 ______ 77

Pauldry _____________21 _ 18 _ 14*_ 09 _ 08*____ 4 ______ 74

Rameire ____________ 19 _ 09 _ 14*_ 14 _ 09*____ 8 ______ 73

200motels __________ 21 _ 08 _ 18*_ 12 _ 03*____ 7 ______ 69

Lumi _______________16 _ 18 _ 09*_ 09 _ 08*____ 9 ______ 69

M.T. Cranium __ (-1) __23 _ 14 _ 08*_ 09 _ 06*____ 9 _ 69-1= 68

sryanbruen __________07 _ 19 _ 16*_ 08 _ 08*____10 ______ 68


Con Sensus _________ 20 _ 15 _ 12*_ 09 _ 06*____ 6 ______ 68


Sunflower3 __________21 _ 15 _ 09*_ 11 _ 04*____ 6 ______ 66

Jpmarn _____________18 _ 14 _ 09*_ 11 _ 06*____ 4 ______ 62


NormaL ____________ 14 _ 17 _ 09*_ 09 _ 07*____ 3 ______ 59


Dasa29 _____________13 _ 11 _ 18*_ 06 _ 09*____ 2 ______ 59

Bsal _______________ 17 _ 10 _ 12*_ 04 _ 08*____ 7 ______ 58

Dacogawa __________ 19 _ 12 _ 10*_ 00 _ 10*____ 7 ______ 58

Rikand _______ (-2) __23 _ 09 _ 08*_ 13 _ 02*____ 1 _ 56-2= 54

DOCARCH __________ 17 _ 13 _ 06*_ 10 _ 04*____ 4 ______ 54

waterways __________ 22 _ 02 _ 15*_ 00 _ 08*____ 5 ______ 52

john mac ____ (-3) ___ 11 _ 09 _ 16*_ 06 _ 06*____ 2 _ 50-3=47

Elmer Blooker ________23 _ 01 _ 09*_ 01 _ 00 ____12 ______ 46

Tae laidir ___________ 20 _ 03 _ 08*_ 01 _ 09*____ 4 ______ 45

Joe Public ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 05*_ 15 _ 02*____ 1 ______ 44

kindredspirit __ (-10) __16 _ 01 _ 12*_ 08 _ 06*____ 6 _ 49-10=39

___________________________________________________________

* MIN and SUN scored from minimum progression -- as nobody was even close on MIN, the range was set somewhat narrower than usual (top 18/20, bottom 5/20).

Congrats to mickger844posts, Mr Skinner and Pauldry for leading the way in October (Rameire close in 4th place).

Annual scoring update to follow ...

======================================================
(actual forecasts)


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Frosty (#)


Joe Public ___________ 11.6 _ 21.9 _--3.6 _ 085 _ 120 ____21

Elmer Blooker ________11.4 _ 21.8 __ 2.8 _ 040 _ 150 ____ 0

MrSkinner ___________11.1 _ 19.4 _--1.8 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 6

Rikand _______ (-2) __ 11.0 _ 21.0 _--3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____15

M.T. Cranium __ (-1) __11.0 _ 20.5 _--2.9 _ 100 _ 105 ____ 7

waterways __________ 10.9 _ 21.7 _--1.8 _ 131 _ 094 ____11

mickger844posts _____ 10.9 _ 19.2 _--1.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5

Sunflower3 __________10.8 _ 20.4 _--2.8 _ 095 _ 110 ____10

Pauldry _____________10.8 _ 19.7 _--1.9 _ 100 _ 095 ____12

200motels __________ 10.8 _ 18.7 _--1.5 _ 093 _ 116 ____ 9

Tae laidir ___________ 10.7 _ 18.2 _--3.0 _ 125 _ 090 ____12


Con Sensus _________ 10.7 _ 19.4 _--2.0 _ 100 _ 105 ____10


Dacogawa ___________10.6 _ 19.1 _--2.1 _ 144 _ 072 ____ 9

Rameire ____________ 10.6 _ 18.8 _--1.9 _ 080 _ 092 ____ 8

Jpmarn _____________10.5 _ 20.5 _--2.7 _ 095 _ 105 ____12

DOCARCH __________ 10.4 _ 19.2 _--3.1 _ 097 _ 108 ____12

Bsal _______________ 10.4 _ 18.9 _--2.0 _ 115 _ 096 ____ 9

Lumi _______________10.3 _ 19.7 _--2.5 _ 100 _ 096 ____ 7

kindredspirit __ (-10) _ 10.3 _ 18.0 _--2.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____10


NormaL _____________10.1 _ 20.2 _--2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ____10


Dasa29 _____________10.0 _ 19.0 _--1.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____15

john mac ____ (-3) ____9.8 _ 18.8 _--1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ____14

sryanbruen ___________9.4 _ 19.8 _--1.7 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 4

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to October 2017

This month the scoring table is based on best 8 of 10 scores. The total scores are in the last column with their ranks but the table is determined by the scores in the second column, best 8 of 10 (en route to the final best 10 of 12 at the end of the year). There is no longer any indicator of your rank in the previous month, you'll have to check back to find that. Mr Skinner moved up four spots this month from 7th to 3rd.


rank_best 8_FORECASTER __ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT __ TOTAL

01 _ 562 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 ___ 671 ( 1)
02 _ 550 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 ___ 666 ( 2)
03 _ 545 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 ___ 636 ( 3)

04 _ 544 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 ___ 664 ( 3)

04 _ 539 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 ___ 634 ( 4)
t05_ 532 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 ___ 627 ( 7)
t05_ 532 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 ___ 532 (20)
07 _ 531 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 ___ 577 (13)
08 _ 529 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 ___ 633 ( 5)
09 _ 523 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 ___ 631 ( 6)
10 _ 515 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 ___ 617 ( 8)

t11 _507 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 ___ 589 ( 9)
t11 _507 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 ___ 576 (14)

13 _ 495 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 ___ 579 (13)

t13 _493 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 ___ 581 (11)
t13 _493 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 ___ 554 (17)
15 _ 492 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 ___ 580 (12)
16 _ 489 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 ___ 583 (10)
17 _ 486 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 ___ 572 (15)
t18 _480 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 ___ 545 (18)
t18 _480 __ M.T. Cranium ___53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 ___ 556 (16)
20 _ 460 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 ___ 540 (19)

21 _ 453 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 ___ 453 (21)

xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 170
xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 164
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- ____47
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 ____46

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Some changes at the top of the scoring table with mickger844posts now in the lead after also winning October. Would say anyone in top half of the table has a good chance with two months left.