FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

A long way off but for a few runs now a lively deepening LP showing up on the models for next weekend. First storm of the Autumn ?

Looking through the charts and looks like moving into a windy weekend with the main models showing a deep area of LP close to Ireland around Sun /Mon, too far out to pinpoint . There has been evidence from the models over the last couple of days of potential for an unsettled period from around next Sun / Mon through to Weds / Thurs with possibly a succession of deep areas of LP passing close to the country. The charts below will change no doubt in timing and tracking but giving an idea of what is showing at the moment .

The Jet charts look very fueled up at times over the next Week or so and passing over us at times.

Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

Yea looking through the models they are all pointing to potentially rough weather over the weekend. The GFS which was a bit all over the place seems to have come back in line with the other models which have been quite consistent highlighting this deepening LP around Sun / Mon.

Fri Sat NW winds and blustery leading into potentially very windy or stormy on Sun into Mon. At this stage most of the winds showing up along the Atlantic seaboard and later the S coasts. Looks cool and showery and possibly quite wet on Sun. Certainly no Indian Summer in sight.

All subject to change of course being 114 - 120 hrs away.

Next Friday / Saturdays deep depression shown to stay well off the coast in the latest runs by the three main models. Looks like we will be clipped by some frontal rain and winds ( possibly heavy rain I would think ).

Just going to put up these charts here to see how accurate the ECM might be ( been doing very well lately ). Long long way off but Hurricane Maria is forecast to veer off to the NW around the weekend and then track Northwestwards off the E cost of the US, possibly interacting with the remnants of Jose , the ECM then shows it taking a track towards Ireland around Fri / Sat 30th ( at this stage an extra tropical storm perhaps and if it did come near our shores it would probably contain a mild humid airmass ). Not beyond the bounds of possibility yet so much could change in the mean time.

Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead

So hard to keep track of the models at the moment. They keep chopping and changing more so now as the seasons change and from the energy being released by all the Tropical activity. Saw your post Donegal Storm about Hurricane Maria in the other thread. It seems to take a slow moving track for about 7 days off the E coast of the USA and then the GFS has it as probably an extra tropical storm hurtling across the Atlantic until it arrives at the S of Ireland and gets absorbed into another area of LP and does a a bit of a dance over Ireland, all the time strengthening around Tues 3 -4 Oct , a full 12 days away. Makes for an Interesting chart to look at but yes probably looking completely different in another couple of runs. Will Keep an eye on it to be sure though

Models in disaray this afternoon with some complete different scenarios . The gfs keeps ex Maria heading towards Ireland in a weaker state and interacting with other areas of LP around the 2nd. Looks like a wet spell of weather , maybe very wet if this were to happen.

The ECM has Maria heading for Greenland on the latest run with areas of LP near Ireland around the same dates as the GFS but also showing longwave ridging in the Atlantic making a move towards Ireland at the end of the run.

Wouldn't be surprised if this run was an outlier and might come back more in line with the GFS on the next run ??? Will see.

The GFS this morning has no resemblance to the ones posted earlier, has Maria heading towards Greenland . The ECM is keeping more to its previous track of sending the remnants of Maria towards Ireland where it probably gets absorbed by other weather systems, looks like an unsettled period of weather from the 30 - 3 of Oct .

This seems to be the pattern when ex Hurricanes, ex tropical storms are released into our latitudes , the models struggle and have a hard time trying to compute them . Maybe it is asking too much of them to be so accurate in the 6- 10 day time frame.

Powerful Jet

The 12z ECMWF has taken the remnants of Maria on a new track after it clears the East coast of the US towards Spain! This is a break from a good few previous runs. An outlier perhaps ? Or else I'm putting too much trust in it

The ECM has shifted the potential storm on the 12z to a more NE'ly track , to me not looking too potent in this run from what I can make out, even though a low Barometer reading it looks a bit flabby . The 3 models are showing a depression / possible storm close to our shores, two going for a NE 'ly track off Scotland.

Early days yet. These charts have been chopping and changing nearly every run. More twists and turns to come no doubt.

Note 850 hPa Charts

The jet seems to fire up towards the weekend and the models are indicating the introduction of lively Atlantic weather at times with what seems like a plethora of LP systems passing close to us or developing and deepening close to our shores from around Sunday 15th for a number of days.

Long way off but the ECMWF showing a deep area of LP tracking off the SW of Ireland and heading into the UK Tues 17th, will be interesting to see if anything becomes of this.