NFL/NCAA Betting Thread - 2017/2018

Just to add to Paully's post below, I see today that Bovada have opened with the Patriots at 12.5 wins - the highest they've given any team. Considering Brady's average season is 12.5 wins, the 10.5 at Coral looks really good.

Some NCAA lines I like this week:

Louisville -9.5 @ North Carolina
Louisville would have easily covered against Purdue last week had it not been for 3 turnovers and 16 (!) penalties that cost them 110 yards. You have to figure that these will be a point of emphasis this week in training, and if you can give Lamar Jackson the ball for an extra drive or two, you're almost guaranteeing yourself an extra 7-10 points. I wasn't impressed with North Carolina last week either - they lost to a Cal team that isn't the same potent offence as it was with Webb last year or Goff the year before. They've lost a lot of weapons, but still scored with ease against the Tar Heels. Louisville could wrack up a lot of scores here.

Nebraska @ Oregon (-13.5)
The post-Helfrich era got off to a flying start last week, albeit against cupcake opposition. But I just have a gut feeling that the Oregon of old are on the way back. They may be lacking in the WR department, but they have as good a 3-headed RB force as anyone in the country in Freeman, Benoit and TBJ, and Herbert at QB looks very comfortable in this offense. Nebraska meanwhile struggled as a 2 TD favourite at home to an average Arkansas State team who put up just shy of 500 yards of offence. Oregon will likely smash that target in Autzen this week.

Georgia +4 @ Notre Dame
I rarely have success betting on Notre Dame games, but this line looks to be over-reacting to the loss of Jacob Eason. On one hand, Jake Fromm is a true freshman QB making his first college start on the road against a tough opponent. On the other hand, there was talk throughout spring that Fromm should have been the starter anyway and that this day was always coming sooner rather than later. Fromm should be able to manage this game with the bulk of the work going to Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

Oklahoma @ Ohio State (-7.5)
Oklahoma has an awful habit of shítting the bed in big moments and I don't think this will be any different. Last year, they had Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook. They played Ohio State in Oklahome, and they lost by 3 TDs. And for some reason this year, in Ohio State, the Buckeyes are only favoured by 7.5? Something smells off about that. This strikes me as a game that will be close but that Ohio State will pull away in the second half as Baker Mayfield goes off-script.

I also like Stanford (+6) though I'd like it a lot more if it moved to +7. I also made the mistake of betting on Ohio (+4) @ Purdue, but the whole time in my head I was thinking of Miami (Ohio) by mistake. Wrong team

Fancy Zay Jones as an anytime TD scorer at 2/1.

Derrick Henry at 7/5 also appealing.