NFL/NCAA Betting Thread - 2017/2018

Paully D

https://twitter.com/DavidPurdum/status/858825857489674241

Paully D

The opening post is not the best or tidiest so apologies, but I thought it would be a good idea to kick things off for next season.

I've had my first best already.

The Patriots over 11 wins really jumped to me from the above image so went searching and found that Coral are currently 10.5 wins for New England at 4/5. I can't understand why it is so low. The last time the Patriots didn't win over 10.5 games was in 2009. You have to go back to 2005 to find a second time. They are showing absolutely no signs of slowing down and got even better in the offseason IMO. The second half of their schedule is quite tough with 5 of 6 games after their week 9 bye on the road (back-to-back games at altitude too, one at Mile High and one in Mexico) but I'd be very surprised if they didn't win at least 11 games.

Patriots over 10.5 wins - 4/5 (Coral).

JaMarcusHustle

Just to add to Paully's post below, I see today that Bovada have opened with the Patriots at 12.5 wins - the highest they've given any team. Considering Brady's average season is 12.5 wins, the 10.5 at Coral looks really good.

StringerBell

Relatively tough schedule this year if I'm not mistaken.

eagle eye

Yeah it's a tough schedule this season and if the GOAT has a weakness it's playing at altitude.

A couple of really tough home games too against the Chiefs, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. It's never easy to go to New Orleans or Pittsburgh. I wouldn't be expecting to win anymore than eleven or twelve and hopefully there is no Superbowl hangover.

mooreman09

Tip - Jarrett Stidham for the Heisman - 33/1.

Paully D

Buccaneers @ Dolphins - under 41.5 points.

This one might get rescheduled, but if not there's going to be 90+ mph winds during the game as the edge of Hurricane Irma passes over which will make it extremely difficult to move the ball through the air.

Frisbee

Bama Outright @ 4/1
Bama win Conference @ 4/9
Louisville win Conference @ 5/1
OSU to make Playoffs @ 4/6
Wisconsin win Big10 West @ 4/6
Miami Florida win ACC Coastal @ 5/4
USC win Pac12 @ 11/10
WSU over 7.5 wins @ 20/27
Texas over 7.5 wins @ 5/6

Pats win AFC @ 11/4

Paully D wrote: »

Buccaneers @ Dolphins - under 41.5 points.

This one might get rescheduled, but if not there's going to be 90+ mph winds during the game as the edge of Hurricane Irma passes over which will make it extremely difficult to move the ball through the air.

Supposed to be going to this on Sunday so crossing fingers, toes, legs, arms & eyes that Irma doesn't swing north

Copper_pipe

Paully D wrote: »

Buccaneers @ Dolphins - under 41.5 points.

This one might get rescheduled, but if not there's going to be 90+ mph winds during the game as the edge of Hurricane Irma passes over which will make it extremely difficult to move the ball through the air.

Just see a tweet from Sports Illustrated there saying the game will either be played at a neutral venue or rescheduled for later in the season

Copper_pipe

https://twitter.com/RacingPostSport/status/905404778682961920

The real mccoy 91

Hoping to make decent profit on the nfl again for this year fancies for tonight are all with pp
Hogan anytime td 11/10 2pts
Hogan 2 tds 5/1 1pt
Pats -9.5 and under 56.5 points 6/4 4pts

Copper_pipe

I'll be picking up that Racing Post Pullout today, I'll scan it into a PDF and send it on if ye like.

Just PM yere email

Interesting101

Copper_pipe wrote: »

I'll be picking up that Racing Post Pullout today, I'll scan it into a PDF and send it on if ye like.

Just PM yere email

Could you send that along to me aswell?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

1 Unit -Chiefs +9.5 tonight

Smith over 250 passing & 2 Td's is 3/1 in ladbrokes, max bet 25 but worth a flutter.

Copper_pipe

Kareem Hunt over 49.5 Rushing Yards 10/11 on Skybet 2.5pts

Bet365 are 54.5
PP are 60.5
Betway are 61.5

L.S.F

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Kareem Hunt over 49.5 Rushing Yards 10/11 on Skybet 2.5pts

Bet365 are 54.5
PP are 60.5
Betway are 61.5

I like the over/unders, and usually do an onrunning accumulator with them (bet one match - put winnings on the next). start with a fiver and try make a grand (think it's 10 bets). Haven't hit the grand yet but cashed out for a few hundred last season with it.

Looking at Gilislee 50.5+ tonight. Might open a Laddies account if that Hunt bet is still up.

JaMarcusHustle

Some NCAA lines I like this week:

Louisville -9.5 @ North Carolina
Louisville would have easily covered against Purdue last week had it not been for 3 turnovers and 16 (!) penalties that cost them 110 yards. You have to figure that these will be a point of emphasis this week in training, and if you can give Lamar Jackson the ball for an extra drive or two, you're almost guaranteeing yourself an extra 7-10 points. I wasn't impressed with North Carolina last week either - they lost to a Cal team that isn't the same potent offence as it was with Webb last year or Goff the year before. They've lost a lot of weapons, but still scored with ease against the Tar Heels. Louisville could wrack up a lot of scores here.

Nebraska @ Oregon (-13.5)
The post-Helfrich era got off to a flying start last week, albeit against cupcake opposition. But I just have a gut feeling that the Oregon of old are on the way back. They may be lacking in the WR department, but they have as good a 3-headed RB force as anyone in the country in Freeman, Benoit and TBJ, and Herbert at QB looks very comfortable in this offense. Nebraska meanwhile struggled as a 2 TD favourite at home to an average Arkansas State team who put up just shy of 500 yards of offence. Oregon will likely smash that target in Autzen this week.

Georgia +4 @ Notre Dame
I rarely have success betting on Notre Dame games, but this line looks to be over-reacting to the loss of Jacob Eason. On one hand, Jake Fromm is a true freshman QB making his first college start on the road against a tough opponent. On the other hand, there was talk throughout spring that Fromm should have been the starter anyway and that this day was always coming sooner rather than later. Fromm should be able to manage this game with the bulk of the work going to Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

Oklahoma @ Ohio State (-7.5)
Oklahoma has an awful habit of shítting the bed in big moments and I don't think this will be any different. Last year, they had Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook. They played Ohio State in Oklahome, and they lost by 3 TDs. And for some reason this year, in Ohio State, the Buckeyes are only favoured by 7.5? Something smells off about that. This strikes me as a game that will be close but that Ohio State will pull away in the second half as Baker Mayfield goes off-script.

I also like Stanford (+6) though I'd like it a lot more if it moved to +7. I also made the mistake of betting on Ohio (+4) @ Purdue, but the whole time in my head I was thinking of Miami (Ohio) by mistake. Wrong team

Guffy

L.S.F wrote: »

I like the over/unders, and usually do an onrunning accumulator with them (bet one match - put winnings on the next). start with a fiver and try make a grand (think it's 10 bets). Haven't hit the grand yet but cashed out for a few hundred last season with it.

Looking at Gilislee 50.5+ tonight. Might open a Laddies account if that Hunt bet is still up.

Will gill get the touches?

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Kareem Hunt over 49.5 Rushing Yards 10/11 on Skybet 2.5pts

Bet365 are 54.5
PP are 60.5
Betway are 61.5

Easy winner

Interesting101

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Easy winner

Good Start ðŸ˜

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

1 Unit -Chiefs +9.5 tonight

Smith over 250 passing & 2 Td's is 3/1 in ladbrokes, max bet 25 but worth a flutter.

Both winners, very comfortable.

L.S.F

Guffy wrote: »

Will gill get the touches?

Went with Hunt in the end, luckily too as Gill was 4 or 5 yards short. Had Gillislee First Touchdown/Pats win and KC +7.5 and over 48 points too so came out with a profit after day 1.

The Hunt overs money will go on another player at 6pm Sunday and hopefully be on bet 5 come MNF.

Realalemadrid

Anyone know if any book will parlay season wins over / unders - I can't find one yet.

Thanks in advance.

NewApproach

Realalemadrid wrote: »

Anyone know if any book will parlay season wins over / unders - I can't find one yet.

Thanks in advance.

Very unlikely as there's related contingencies in play.

D9Male

Paddy Power are offering 25/1 on 2000 receiving yards to be broken by someone in the regular season. I think that is a fair bit too long.

Paully D

Bengals -2.5

Ivefoundgod

Paully D wrote: »

Bengals -2.5

Damn Paully are you that down on us? I'm including us in an acca

eagle eye

D9Male wrote: »

Paddy Power are offering 25/1 on 2000 receiving yards to be broken by someone in the regular season. I think that is a fair bit too long.

You do realise it has never been done in the history of the game. Megatron got really close to it but he was a freak of nature.

JaMarcusHustle

Fancy Zay Jones as an anytime TD scorer at 2/1.

Derrick Henry at 7/5 also appealing.

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Bengals -2.5

Adding Titans/Raiders over 50.5.

Guffy

To lazy this week. Have a few bets on from earlier in the year (eagles +2.5, chargers +3.5, bears +7)

Does anyone fancy putting up a ftd or anytime four fold so i dont have to pick them myself?

JaMarcusHustle

Eddie Lacy anytime at 2/1 is decent. Small bet on him first @ 16/1 and last @ 16/1 too.

Edit: Scratch the first/last bets. Going to go with Eddie anytime @ 2/1 and Chris Carson anytime @ 5/1.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

eagle eye wrote: »

You do realise it has never been done in the history of the game. Megatron got really close to it but he was a freak of nature.

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones

Pass first league.. it's definitely possible. 25/1 is a good price!

D9Male

eagle eye wrote: »

You do realise it has never been done in the history of the game. Megatron got really close to it but he was a freak of nature.

Of course I do. It's obviously not a banker.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

D9Male wrote: »

Of course I do. It's obviously not a banker.

nope definitely not a banker but a decent bet all the same

Copper_pipe

Have a good bet on the over 31.5. Line was 31.5 on PP this morning, then 42.5 and now 48.5.

Guffy

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Have a good bet on the over 31.5. Line was 31.5 on PP this morning, then 42.5 and now 48.5.

Well spotted.


Have saints +3
saints ml
Thomas ftd
fleener anytime
AP under 48.5


one of those games where I'm rattled as feck after yesterday and just going to veg with a loadof selections id normally say ya that looks good but pass.

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Have a good bet on the over 31.5. Line was 31.5 on PP this morning, then 42.5 and now 48.5.

Winner

Guffy

Guffy wrote: »

Well spotted.


Have saints +3
saints ml
Thomas ftd
fleener anytime
AP under 48.5


one of those games where I'm rattled as feck after yesterday and just going to veg with a loadof selections id normally say ya that looks good but pass.

I slept through all of that, thank god

Guffy

Guffy wrote: »

To lazy this week. Have a few bets on from earlier in the year (eagles +2.5, chargers +3.5, bears +7)

Does anyone fancy putting up a ftd or anytime four fold so i dont have to pick them myself?

Pre season week 1 bets game in thank god. Had me up on the year. Posted selections before games but maybe a little after timing considering the spreads were no longer available.

1 win 2 push on bets if taken at time of post

L.S.F

Hunt overs winner, Dalton for 250 against the Ravens at home >:(

So back to bet one: Cook overs which hit.

Will look at AJ's numbers and hope Dalton doesn't screw me over again!


Doing a random four fold for a fiver each week on the handicap. 2/4 for week one

krustydoyle

Won a bet in Powers so I've a €10 Accum bet to play with

Going with match win Accum

Chiefs 10/23
Pats 10/29
Vikings 12/5
Dolphins 17/10
Rams 13/10
Broncos 21/20

Copper_pipe

Went through the under/over Player Performance lines for the 6pm Games

Bateman

Mixed bag on the weekend so far, hard to know how to play the late game, I have no angle and am wondering if it's a case of putting the faith in the Packers. All of a sudden their win last week doesn't look so good given how anaemic the Seahawks are here

Bateman

This week looks like a sell-point on the Rams, I think they could be beaten tonight.

Bateman

The total in this early game feels a bit light, I have gone over. Also giving the Chargers one more chance later.

The real mccoy 91

I feel there is good value in the kelce wincast tonight @2/1

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

I feel there is good value in the kelce wincast tonight @2/1

Winner

Id say that last play has caused uproar in the betting world

Bateman

Late college slate:
A&M +25.5 & overs in same game
Arizona +7
Cincinnati +16.5
Utah +4

eagle eye

Elijah McGuire is 3/1 anytime td, he did very well last week for the Jets and I'd expect to see him in an expanded role this week so seems like great value.

thomond2006

The over/under for Lions @ Saints is 50.0. That sounds like a few points too few to me, any thoughts?