Major Hurricane Irma

harr · 05-09-2017 9:27pm

Probably a silly question, I know very little about weather but will the power of Irma diminish the more land fall she makes or does she continue till the conditions are less favourable for a hurricane.
I was looking at past hurricanes on the app and a lot seem to continue a good bit inland

Donegal Storm · 05-09-2017 10:15pm

Yeah any land it hits will weaken it or at least slow down strengthening, more so mountainous land which rips apart its structure. Problem is the Bahamas and others in its path are mostly low lying and so small that the eye will have passed over in a few hours and convection will kick off again.

At the moment there's not much in its way right up to Florida hence the worry there, once it goes inland in the US it'll lose its moisture source and start to decay

Pa ElGrande · 05-09-2017 10:50pm

Hurricane Irma Public Advisory 2pm
https://antiguaobserver.com/hurricane-irma-public-advisory-2pm/

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.1 West. Irma is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph (295
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but
Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 926 mb (27.34 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme
northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and
to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide…

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico…3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Oscar Bravo · 05-09-2017 11:05pm

NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion aircraft N42RF just through the eye now

skyheinz · 05-09-2017 11:27pm

Suppose to go to Disney and trying to make a call on it.
Any thoughts on safety? Assuming flights not cancelled (doesn't look like it), shouldn't be too bad?

BumperD · 05-09-2017 11:34pm

All those islands in its path are about to be shredded. They have never been hit by anything like this.

BumperD · 05-09-2017 11:41pm

skyheinz wrote: »

Suppose to go to Disney 7th - 14th and trying to make a call on it.
Any thoughts on safety? Assuming flights not cancelled (doesn't look like it), shouldn't be too bad?

Power will go. Depends on where it hits. You won't die or anything but you'd expect disruption and discomfort, especially if you have kids, plenty of stress which having experienced one before, best avoided.

Meteorite58 · 05-09-2017 11:46pm

BumperD wrote: »

All those islands in its path are about to be shredded. They have never been hit by anything like this.

Im afraid so, Antigua and Barbuda going to get hammered unfortunately .

Again the words unprecedented are being used. Hurricane force winds 60 miles wide.

5.38: Dropsonde measures pressure of 920mb in the eye, 6mb lower than the last flight a few hours ago. Still strengthening.

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/905191739702607873

traco · 05-09-2017 11:53pm

Those islands are going to take a serious hit. It's the poorer ones that will suffer horrendously when it passes.

FL state of emergency declaration secures federal money and support. US has modern infrastructure, emergency response crews, hospitals and money. So while damage could be major they have the means to deal with it.

The less well off islands will be devastated and will probably be forgotten about once Irma impacts the US and the TV crews get rolling unfortunately.

Meteorite58 · 05-09-2017 11:55pm

Donegal Storm · 06-09-2017 12:03am

This could be catastrophic if it hits places like Haiti full force, winds that strong will flatten entire towns in poorer areas with poor construction. To give an idea of what 185mph winds look like, here's a video from an ef4 tornado which had similar windspeeds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v075d9Vfqcg

jimbobaloobob · 06-09-2017 12:15am

Did i just hear on RTE radio news winds expected of 250 mph or kph?

Meteorite58 · 06-09-2017 12:41am

Did i just hear on RTE radio news winds expected of 250 mph or kph?

Last Air Force recon measured an estimated surface wind of 177 mph / 285 km/h in Irmas Northwestern eye wall.

BumperD · 06-09-2017 1:08am

Guadalupe recording seismic activity from the wind already per CNN

Bsal · 06-09-2017 1:19am

The forecast for St. Maarten airport

TAF: TNCM 060012Z 0600/0624 04014KT P6SM VCSH SCT018
FM060300 01025G35KT P6SM -SHRA VCSH SCT015 BKN060 OVC080
FM060500 33055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050
FM060700 300140G160KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030
FM061100 26090G120KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC030
FM061700 20055G75KT 6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN050

Pa ElGrande · 06-09-2017 1:19am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EN1h89FYdvQ

View from international space station.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N0_jn7wfk8

4068ac1elhodqr · 06-09-2017 2:12am

"The most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean"

One study concluded that female named storms aren't taken as seriously, perhaps this one should be renamed 'Ivan-the-terrible'.
All the press pictures show folks buying primarily (wisely, but ironically): bottled water. Secondary: plywood. Both good choices.

irishgeo · 06-09-2017 6:37am

Any chance it could run into the post tropical depression just off Mexico.

carltonleon · 06-09-2017 7:56am

According to Ryan Maue on twitter

'Important change thru 96 hour forecast from reliable ECMWF model. No longer Cuban land interaction and turn to N before 80w longitude'

Samaris · 06-09-2017 8:18am

Barbuda is still under it, although the eye has passed. Outside world lost contact with Barbuda station through the night, so nothing is really known of what's happened there or if people are alright.

carltonleon - if it turns there and misses Cuba, that will steer it up the Atlantic seaboard of the US, avoiding Florida?

Does anyone know if it could get itself into the Gulf of Mexico and what would be expected of it if it did?

traco · 06-09-2017 8:58am

carltonleon wrote: »

According to Ryan Maue on twitter

'Important change thru 96 hour forecast from reliable ECMWF model. No longer Cuban land interaction and turn to N before 80w longitude'

That will pull it up into Miami and maybe slightly out into the Atlantic, if lucky the NW quadrant might stay offshore but there will be huge seas and storm surge. Still going to be a huge amount of damage.

Lot of poor areas such as Homestead south of Miami, trailer parks, old wooden houses. These will be devastated.

Waiting for AMHQ early edition which will be on at 10am Irish time to get the weather channels latest take. NHC full update should also be released at that time so will be interesting to see their take.

Elmer Blooker · 06-09-2017 9:05am

Not much about Irma on Morning Ireland?
No doubt when/if it makes landfall on the US coast there will be non stop coverage, a very grave looking Catriona Perry will be on our screens and airwaves morning, noon and night!

* it was the 4th item on the 9 o'clock headlines.

star gazer · 06-09-2017 9:08am

Minimum Central Pressure 914mb, 295km/h max wind and moving WNW at 24km/h. Potential eyewall replacement, which would reduce potential strength (or strengthening). Between four and a half and six meter storm surge on the Southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands. The eye just went over Barbuda. Up to half a meter of rain in isolated parts of islands on it's path. Anguilla is next to be directly or very closely impacted by the centre of Irma. There aren't many precedents for a Hurricane of this intensity and each Hurricane is different so taking serious extra precautions is vital.
NHC

Irma becomes only the fifth
Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt or
higher. The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane
of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).

Irma is still forecast to end up by the Florida Keys by about Sunday.

ElChe32 · 06-09-2017 9:20am

My OH is Puerto Rican so she is glued to the news. Most of her family live on the south west coast of the island but they are all terribly worried. We are going there in November. Seriously hoping Irma swerves away from the island.

R777B · 06-09-2017 9:24am

star gazer wrote: »

Minimum Central Pressure 914mb, 295km/h max wind and moving WNW at 24km/h. Potential eyewall replacement, which would reduce potential strength (or strengthening). Between four and a half and six meter storm surge on the Southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands. The eye just went over Barbuda. Up to half a meter of rain in isolated parts of islands on it's path. Anguilla is next to be directly or very closely impacted by the centre of Irma. There aren't many precedents for a Hurricane of this intensity and each Hurricane is different so taking serious extra precautions is vital.
NHC

Irma is still forecast to end up by the Florida Keys by about Sunday.

Does the current forecast look like it will go straight through Central Florida, or along the east/gulf coast?

traco · 06-09-2017 9:31am

Interesting models in this site. One I've juts looked at on the phone and it has it offshore east of Florida and running North. It could do anything yet as it's a few days out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090600&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=6

harr · 06-09-2017 9:52am

traco wrote: »

Interesting models in this site. One I've juts looked at on the phone and it has it offshore east of Florida and running North. It could do anything yet as it's a few days out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090600&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=6

This could head anywhere yet, any possibility of it heading NE out back into the Atlantic away from any land fall or are the waters to cold further north

carltonleon · 06-09-2017 10:05am

And this is a well built house

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lqfExHpvLRY

Elmer Blooker · 06-09-2017 10:07am

R777B wrote: »

Does the current forecast look like it will go straight through Central Florida, or along the east/gulf coast?

At the moment it looks to me that Irma will hit the Leeward Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, St Kitts And Nevis, Anguilla, US and British Virgin Islands, Monserrat, Puerto Rico, Cuba and no doubt many other tiny islands where people will be unable to get into their cars and drive inland.
RTE not covering Irma, obviously waiting for it to hit the US when it will be a REAL hurricane.

06-09-2017 10:11am

Passed over Barbuda a few hours ago. Latest NHC track guidance has shifted it eastwards by the weekend, moving it through the Florida Keys and then into mainland Florida itself.

Major Hurricane Irma

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