Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

Necro · 04-09-2017 04:51PM

patrickSTARR wrote: »

Im not, but if we never lynch anyone then I think the wolves chances of winning increase. id rather gamble.

While I am now currently your number 1 target, I agree with this strategy.

beakerjoe · 04-09-2017 04:52PM

Necrominus wrote: »

Well I don't particularly have a way to prove it apart from stating absolutely that I'm not a wolf. No clue about Lordy to be honest. But, if I'm not a wolf as per the theory. Then... it's a pretty silly theory.

Well I know its weak, but its as weak as any other theory. It makes sense is what i meant.

I think you are more unknown than bad, but PS's theory makes sense. Lord did jump to defend you quickly.

That being said, nether you or Lord are on my FFA right now

y0ssar1an22 · 04-09-2017 04:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think voting for "No Lynch" on the first day is almost always the right play. I can't believe we haven't done it before.

but you said you are going to vote yourself?

beakerjoe · 04-09-2017 04:54PM

Someone convince me of no lynch?

What happens tomorrow when we are in a similar situation? (Ie no seer or Priest info).

I think as PS and Necro have suggested, Id take a risk (Necro and PS : FORMER ENEMIES NOW FRIENDS WITH A COMMON GOAL)

sKeith · 04-09-2017 04:54PM

i started with 19/24 villager but maths is easier if we use 5/24 chance to hit wolf, just didn't change label when i changed odds around.

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads we are odds against to hit a wolf even if Q wasn't in play no lynch would be the best option to start as you dont take any villagers out.

Lynches kill a way higher % of villagers then wolfs

I'm not buying this.

5/24 chance of hitting a villager now.
if we give up this chance we are weaker.

do we wait until its 5/10 before we start lynching?

you are giving up roles of the dice willing with no gain.

Necro · 04-09-2017 04:56PM

beakerjoe wrote: »

Well I know its weak, but its as weak as any other theory. It makes sense is what i meant.

I think you are more unknown than bad, but PS's theory makes sense. Lord did jump to defend you quickly.

That being said, nether you or Lord are on my FFA right now

In the benefit of being totally honest and upfront, I actually jumped in to defend Lord first. PSTARR thought Lord was wolfy for asking Robyn was she a wolf before she died.

I countered with saying Mick was tweaking my radar more for cosying up to her.

You and Pstarr found that wolfy.

Then Lord defended me. So if anything I should be more wolfy looking than Lordie... but, for some reason him defending me twigged your interest more...??

There is also the chance that - myself and Lord - are indeed on the same team.

Team Village. I know I am but can't speak for Lordie.

Kolido · 04-09-2017 04:57PM

Given the rule clarification, a no lynch does sound appealing. Though for how long, I mean the wolves can coast along nicely if there is no lynching, they just need to blend in with no fears. Only thing on our side then is the hoping the seer peaks 1 and can somehow out it across without outing themselves. No lynch tonight is feasable right now, but we could be non the wser this time tomorrow and what do we do then. I know its 24 hours so we might know more but also might not

patrickSTARR · 04-09-2017 04:58PM

Necrominus wrote: »

In the benefit of being totally honest and upfront, I actually jumped in to defend Lord first. PSTARR thought Lord was wolfy for asking Robyn was she a wolf before she died.

I countered with saying Mick was tweaking my radar more for cosying up to her.

You and Pstarr found that wolfy.

Then Lord defended me. So if anything I should be more wolfy looking than Lordie... but, for some reason him defending me twigged your interest more...??

There is also the chance that - myself and Lord - are indeed on the same team.

Team Village. I know I am but can't speak for Lordie.

But you and Lord wont know if your on the same team if villagers, but if you are wolves then you would and it makes sense that he would defend you.

Also Keith, who do you suspect? (2nd time of asking)

04-09-2017 04:59PM

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

but you said you are going to vote yourself?

Yeah, if I get enough votes, you see, I win

y0ssar1an22 · 04-09-2017 05:00PM

sKeith wrote: »

i started with 19/24 villager but maths is easier if we use 5/24 chance to hit wolf, just didn't change label when i changed odds around.

I'm not buying this.

5/24 chance of hitting a villager now.
if we give up this chance we are weaker.

do we wait until its 5/10 before we start lynching?

you are giving up roles of the dice willing with no gain.

5/24 of hitting baddie

sKeith · 04-09-2017 05:00PM

whoops, i meant to quote, not edit, my bad.

y0ssar1an22 · 04-09-2017 05:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, if I get enough votes, you see, I win

interesting. it could be the quickest win ever.

grumpylumpy · 04-09-2017 05:01PM

In true grumpy fashion I'm arriving a day late. And refusing to read back through 700 posts. I'll keep up from here on though. I see we already lost a goody

Anyone want to catch me up? Are we all just voting where we see fit or is there any organisation ffa/racing?

Digital Solitude · 04-09-2017 05:02PM

I think not voting is a bad idea.

We need all the information we can get, and votes can be crucial information.

I'm going to vote BJ at the minute, won't vote until later. Will put together a post on him when I get to my PC.

Necro · 04-09-2017 05:02PM

patrickSTARR wrote: »

But you and Lord wont know if your on the same team if villagers, but if you are wolves then you would and it makes sense that he would defend you.

Also Keith, who do you suspect? (2nd time of asking)

So, paying no attention to the fact that I defended him first??? Strange that you focus on Lord when it was me who brought up the counter point first.

Also... you thought I was Q this morning? And now I'm a wolf??? Very risky if your initial gut feel is right...

Barney92 · 04-09-2017 05:03PM

Kolido wrote: »

Given the rule clarification, a no lynch does sound appealing. Though for how long, I mean the wolves can coast along nicely if there is no lynching, they just need to blend in with no fears. Only thing on our side then is the hoping the seer peaks 1 and can somehow out it across without outing themselves. No lynch tonight is feasable right now, but we could be non the wser this time tomorrow and what do we do then. I know its 24 hours so we might know more but also might not

Well with my plan we'd have 2 days of official no lynches but we'd phaser instead and then we end our no lynch policy. The other 'no lynchers' amongst us seem to just be suggesting it for this lynch.

04-09-2017 05:06PM

sKeith wrote: »

i started with 19/24 villager but maths is easier if we use 5/24 chance to hit wolf, just didn't change label when i changed odds around.

I'm not buying this.

5/24 chance of hitting a villager now.
if we give up this chance we are weaker.

do we wait until its 5/10 before we start lynching?

you are giving up roles of the dice willing with no gain.

I cant explain it very well but it makes perfect sense in my head.

The most basic and easy thing for me to explain is we cannot lose tonight with a no lynch.

If we pride ourselves being any good at this game keeping the village numbers as high as possible while gathering info is the best.

Obviously there is a tipping point along the way as a no lynch every day means we lose but for the first 2-3 days a no lynch is in our favour.

Necro · 04-09-2017 05:06PM

Barney92 wrote: »

Well with my plan we'd have 2 days of official no lynches but we'd phaser instead and then we end our no lynch policy. The other 'no lynchers' amongst us seem to just be suggesting it for this lynch.

Well, I see the merits in the plan, but with PSTARR and BJ seemingly leading me to the gallows I'm in a bit of a pickle in this regard.

I have no interest in self preservation. I'm insignificant and that will be proven if I get hung tonight. But I'd sooner live!!:mad::mad::mad::mad:

Digital Solitude · 04-09-2017 05:06PM

grumpylumpy wrote: »

In true grumpy fashion I'm arriving a day late. And refusing to read back through 700 posts. I'll keep up from here on though. I see we already lost a goody

Anyone want to catch me up? Are we all just voting where we see fit or is there any organisation ffa/racing?

If you really want to help, read back yourself

patrickSTARR · 04-09-2017 05:08PM

Necrominus wrote: »

So, paying no attention to the fact that I defended him first??? Strange that you focus on Lord when it was me who brought up the counter point first.

Also... you thought I was Q this morning? And now I'm a wolf??? Very risky if your initial gut feel is right...

I am allowed to change my theorys. I'll go with my gut.

We all know, your gut gets villagers killed

Drumpot · 04-09-2017 05:09PM

What do we learn from not Lynching anybody ? Nothing . . The risk now is way lower then it will be in a few days.

Some crew members can see patterns that hint at wolfy stuff before/during and after Lynchs. But with no Lynch it becomes a quiet night where we just wait for another villager to be skinned in the morning.

I am conscious that its in Q's interest that we always have a Lynch, but I think that becomes a problem later on when the odds are more in his favour. He needs only cosy up to a wolf and look dodgy after awhile so now we are more likely to get a wolf or villager who wouldn't be as risky as it will be in a few days.

sKeith · 04-09-2017 05:09PM

patrickSTARR wrote: »

But you and Lord wont know if your on the same team if villagers, but if you are wolves then you would and it makes sense that he would defend you.

Also Keith, who do you suspect? (2nd time of asking)

Patrick, I suspect everybody.

I don't think no lynch is clever move.

I think pj is weird, but don't want to lynch him.

Lord TSC · 04-09-2017 05:10PM

I really am not fond of the no vote idea but I will go with it if needs be. But it's very, very open to abuse, cock ups, etc...

Kolido · 04-09-2017 05:10PM

Barney92 wrote: »

Well with my plan we'd have 2 days of official no lynches but we'd phaser instead and then we end our no lynch policy. The other 'no lynchers' amongst us seem to just be suggesting it for this lynch.

So your plan is a way of catching Q?

But we would end up using all our bullets as we would never know if q was shot, they only show as good to priest, is this correct. ?

Therefore we would have no bullets left and still not knowing if q is out there or not.

Necro · 04-09-2017 05:11PM

patrickSTARR wrote: »

I am allowed to change my theorys. I'll go with my gut.

We all know, your gut gets villagers killed

My specific, prominent gut or just a general comment on gut feelings???:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

Ah look, vote for me if you like. I'm not arguing this point all evening.

beakerjoe · 04-09-2017 05:12PM

Necrominus wrote: »

Well, I see the merits in the plan, but with PSTARR and BJ seemingly leading me to the gallows I'm in a bit of a pickle in this regard.

I have no interest in self preservation. I'm insignificant and that will be proven if I get hung tonight. But I'd sooner live!!:mad::mad::mad::mad:

Wooah cool the jets, im leading you no where. Your not even on my FFA. (yet)

Im just saying PS's theory on you is plausible and as solid as anyother theory we have had today.

04-09-2017 05:13PM

Drumpot wrote: »

What do we learn from not Lynching anybody ? Nothing . . The risk now is way lower then it will be in a few days.

Some crew members can see patterns that hint at wolfy stuff before/during and after Lynchs. But with no Lynch it becomes a quiet night where we just wait for another villager to be skinned in the morning.

I am conscious that its in Q's interest that we always have a Lynch, but I think that becomes a problem later on when the odds are more in his favour. He needs only cosy up to a wolf and look dodgy after awhile so now we are more likely to get a wolf or villager who wouldn't be as risky as it will be in a few days.

His odds get better of being lynched everytime we lynch a villager also.

If we lynch tonight and wolfs dont kill him his odds tomoro are 1/22 no lynch is 1/23

Necro · 04-09-2017 05:15PM

Current post counts for anyone spreadsheet minded:

Necrominus 128
patrickSTARR 63
The_Valeyard 57
beakerjoe 47
Lord TSC 36
robyntmorton 35
Barney92 33
y0ssar1an22 31
Kolido 28
Strawberry 27
Drumpot 27
MrsFlushdraw 26
MicksJaguar 24
sKeith 23
partyjungle 18
Guffy 17
Pter 15
quickbeam 14
crosstownk 13
mahamageehad 12
Digital Solitude 11
tritium 9
sullivlo 6
Ectoplasm 5
WerewolfGM 4
Jayop 4
Mollyb60 2
Uriel. 1
grumpylumpy 1

tritium · 04-09-2017 05:15PM

patrickSTARR wrote: »

I don't like the no lynch option so early, it should only be used if we think someone is Q by the process of deduction. We need to take out wolves.

I agree with this. No lynch is rarely if ever a good strategy. Wolves wont go with a no munch option so no lynch is just sacrificing village momentum. Tbh i think we'll find a wolf or two in the group advocating that strategy

y0ssar1an22 · 04-09-2017 05:16PM

well thats we we need to weigh up: very high chance of lynching villager vs what info may be garnered from vote patterns.

given the very high chance of hitting villager tonight, i think it is best not lynching.

Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

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