Fine Gael MEP Brian Hayes urges grand coalition with Fine Fail

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I wonder could the divisions within FF over coalition with SF spill out into the open before the next GE? If it was any other party it would be likely, but FFers are so focused on the main chance, even those prepared to treat with SF know it is best to keep quiet about it until after the election, for fear of scaring off middle class voters...

Middle class (whatever they are in Ireland, Leo doesn't seem to know ) voters haven't had a problem with Labour, the Greens, the PD's or an assortment of Independents in government, I am not convinced they would have a problem with SF in government.
The vocal objections seem to be coming from the trad governing parties. The electorate have been saying FF and FG are two sides of the same coin for quite a while now.

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a strange oxymoron.

On the one hand, you say that the middle class voters wouldn't have a problem with SF in government, but on the other you say that the objections come from the traditional governing parties, who between them have nearly 60% in the current polls, and who are overwhemingly supported by the middle class.

Are you saying that FF and FG voters are not middle class?

Or are you saying that FF and FG voters vote for FG and FF even though they want SF in government?

Not really clear to me.

I think his argument is that fear and loathing of SF is coming from within the traditional parties themselves rather than their voters. FF and FG are trapped in this 'arms race' where neither can be seen to be a scintilla softer on SF for fear of scaring 'middle Ireland' into the arms of the other one. Francie's argument is that the parties are overstating this fear but I'm not sure about that...

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a strange oxymoron.

On the one hand, you say that the middle class voters wouldn't have a problem with SF in government, but on the other you say that the objections come from the traditional governing parties, who between them have nearly 60% in the current polls, and who are overwhemingly supported by the middle class.

Are you saying that FF and FG voters are not middle class?

Or are you saying that FF and FG voters vote for FG and FF even though they want SF in government?

Not really clear to me.

Are you sure you know the difference between a voter and a political party?
Middle class voters haven't had problem with a variety of coalitions and they don't vote 'overwhelmingly' for any of the minor parties either.
I don't see the fear among the electorate. I think they would have no real issue with it tbh.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well if FF and FG maintain their current positions of no coalition with SF under any circumstances, it is ultimately a moot point how their voters feel about such a coalition. As long as FF and FG together have a majority of seats, they will always come to some arrangement with each other, however unenthusiastically, in preference to a deal with SF.

Positions are softening. I would imagine it will be down to SF to take their pick soon.
As we seen with Theresa May, politicians can cast aside previous principles at the drop of a hat if necessary for power.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

As I said, barring a political earthquake, FF and FG will still have a majority of seats between them after the next election. If Sinn Fein get into government in that scenario, it won't be because it's, strictly speaking, 'necessary', but because a sufficient number of FF TDs prefer a deal with SF over one with FG to the point where they will overthrow their leader to bring it about. Not inconceivable, but I find it hard to envisage.

I see things like this as deputy's putting ideas out there and journalists running with it.
The deputy's are looking to see if there is any reaction that might be negative. I honestly don't think a coalition with SF is too far away.
'Tis only politics after all.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fianna-f%C3%A1il-frontbench-tds-are-open-to-coalition-with-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.3184113

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I see things like this as deputy's putting ideas out there and journalists running with it.
The deputy's are looking to see if there is any reaction that might be negative. I honestly don't think a coalition with SF is too far away.
'Tis only politics after all.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fianna-f%C3%A1il-frontbench-tds-are-open-to-coalition-with-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.3184113

If FF went into coalition with SF, FG would be rubbing their hands in glee, and vice versa.

The old saying that it you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas would be their belief.

blanch152 wrote: »

If FF went into coalition with SF, FG would be rubbing their hands in glee, and vice versa.

The old saying that it you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas would be their belief.

There is nothing to suggest that in reality.
FF and FG swap power anyway. Would be no different.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think the hand-rubbing would come if FF announced before the election that they were open to a coalition with SF, FG could base their entire campaign on scaremongering. I don't believe the reality of an FF-SF coalition would prove nearly so toxic to 'middle Ireland', especially SF under Mary Lou, in fact it could well deliver the kind of populist soft-left policies that I believe are favoured by a majority of the Irish people...

FG couldn't get an overall majority after FF destroyed the country and brought years of austerity on to the heads of middle Ireland. FF are now back to full tilt jostling for power and effectively running the country.
It is just fanciful nonsense to suggest that either party would capitlise greatly if the other went into a coalition with SF.
I think it is just part of the biased fantasies of some. Middle Ireland copes quite well if SF in county councils and as TD's (they are not exactly stonng them or spitting on them )
People may not like it, in the way they wouldn't like a coalition with independents but that is the height of it as far as I can see.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG couldn't get an overall majority after FF destroyed the country and brought years of austerity on to the heads of middle Ireland. FF are now back to full tilt jostling for power and effectively running the country.
It is just fanciful nonsense to suggest that either party would capitlise greatly if the other went into a coalition with SF.
I think it is just part of the biased fantasies of some. Middle Ireland copes quite well if SF in county councils and as TD's (they are not exactly stonng them or spitting on them )
People may not like it, in the way they wouldn't like a coalition with independents but that is the height of it as far as I can see.

So do you think SF will be in government after the next election? Supposing the numbers come back roughly where they are now, i.e, 1. FG, 2. FF, 3. SF, and a government can only be formed with at least the tacit support of two of the three. If push comes to shove, do you think FF will opt for a deal with SF over another one with FG?

Here's another suggested format for an FG/FF government:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/rotating-power-would-suit-fg-and-ff-456840.html

Deleted User wrote: »

I doubt many in FF would countenance the thought of a deal with a party if the likes of Adams and Ferris were still at its forefront. If SF got rid of those with such obvious links to serious and violent crime, and the likes of Mary Lou who have very blotted copybooks as she stood by Adams as he stammered and bluffed his way through questions about the Liam Adams abuse case, perhaps it could be tolerated.

FF's current position is to rule out coalition with SF in all circumstances. Martin will no doubt be pressed during the campaign on whether that holds if SF change their leader, economic policies etc. Adams is apparently set on leading SF into the next election and has given no indication of any plans to step down after that, so it would be very tricky and politically risky for Martin to start qualifying his anti-SF pledge before the election on the basis of something SF might do after it.

For Reals wrote: »

It's a matter of time before SF rivals FF/FG on a regular basis, (not just the semi-regular basis of when FF/FG rip off/ruin the country). The power of the scaremongering will lessen as the years pass. While we'll always have the most recent FF/FG recession/scandal to look to.

I have no doubt that's the long-term trend. especially if FF and FG continue this charade of "governing in partnership but not in coalition, as that Michael D'Arcy interview linked above suggests they will. They're effectively goading the electorate into voting in a non-FF/FG majority...

For Reals wrote: »

One can but hope.

They know if SF get into government and don't do any worse than they have that it spells the end for one or other of them.
That is what is really behind the current stalemate, they are paralysing each other.

For Reals wrote: »

It's a matter of time before SF rivals FF/FG on a regular basis, (not just the semi-regular basis of when FF/FG rip off/ruin the country). The power of the scaremongering will lessen as the years pass. While we'll always have the most recent FF/FG recession/scandal to look to.

I very much doubt it. A whiff that FF might consider SF as a coalition partner would cost them 10% in the polls.

There are just too many people who remember what SF stood for and what many of its members supported.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF would be more likely to suffer hitching themselves to FF.

This has (invariably?) been the experience of smaller parties in coalition with FF and FG. Which is partly why I see Cullinane's comments as positioning/shape-throwing by SF rather than a sign that they are really looking to do a deal with FF or FG after this election. They are playing a long game, aiming to be the larger party in coalition with FF and ultimately lead a broad left-wing coalition not involving FF or FG.