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Brexit discussion thread II

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Comments

  • #182
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Water John wrote: »
    Reality, will come dropping, slowly.
    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Oh sweet Jesus.

    Mod note:

    These types of comment are well below the standards required.


  • #183
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    What's correct is that they'll end up paying or go out on WTO terms.

    Any chance you could address the post?

    The UK has currently signed up to the budget that runs until 2020 yes or no?

    The UK currently pays around €14billion per year towards that budget, yes it no?

    There will be one year left of the current budget after the UK leaves, yes or no?

    I think the biggest question to be asked, is who will make up the shortfall after the UK leaves and how much extra each country will have to pay.


  • #184
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Any chance you could address the post?

    The UK has currently signed up to the budget that runs until 2020 yes or no?

    The UK currently pays around €14billion per year towards that budget, yes it no?

    There will be one year left of the current budget after the UK leaves, yes or no?

    I think the biggest question to be asked, is who will make up the shortfall after the UK leaves and how much extra each country will have to pay.


    When you put it like that it seems to me the chance of the UK not paying into a EU budget and getting a favourable deal seems very slight. The EU will have to make up the €14billion that will be missing and ensuring their members get the best possible deal to ensure they can make up the deficit.

    What are the chances that the UK will be able to sell it to the massive majority Brexit crowd that they will have to pay in to get a good deal?


  • #185
    whatstherush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭whatstherush


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Any chance you could address the post?

    The UK has currently signed up to the budget that runs until 2020 yes or no?

    The UK currently pays around €14billion per year towards that budget, yes it no?

    There will be one year left of the current budget after the UK leaves, yes or no?

    I think the biggest question to be asked, is who will make up the shortfall after the UK leaves and how much extra each country will have to pay.

    14bn is only the gross amount minus the rebate, it's nearer 8bn when you take away UK bound farm payments structural funds etc...


  • #186
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Any chance you could address the post?

    The UK has currently signed up to the budget that runs until 2020 yes or no?

    The UK currently pays around €14billion per year towards that budget, yes it no?

    There will be one year left of the current budget after the UK leaves, yes or no?

    I think the biggest question to be asked, is who will make up the shortfall after the UK leaves and how much extra each country will have to pay.
    It is not 14 billion. It is 8 billion net. 8 billion per annum divided pro rata amongst the 27 is a thing of nothing.

    Edit: Wot e said ^ previous post.


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  • #187
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good afternoon,

    It doesn't change my view. The UK is seeking a deal which suits Britain's particular circumstances.

    A deal which requires continued observance to EU laws and freedom of movement doesn't suit the circumstances of the UK or the Brexit vote. A half in half out approach isn't the right option.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria
    So why do you insist on EU not being allowed to do the same? For EU the best outcome is if the finance center in London gets dismantled and moved to EU countries, that as much industry jobs are moved over to EU and that future investments are done in EU rather than UK and to get the highest possible divorce bill settlement in their favour. But you call that EU seeking to punish UK when in reality it's exactly what UK is doing except on EU side instead.


  • #188
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,482 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    PeadarCo wrote: »
    .... obviously the costs of an UK citizens who work or have worked(pension costs) for the EU.

    I think that the pension issue is more complicated than that. All EU employees that will earn a pension will be part of the cost to the UK, not just those employed from the UK. Many junior post are not filled from the UK but still have pension entitlements that must be paid for from the EU pension pot. Actuaries will burn much midnight oil trying to work it out.

    This 'divorce bill' is very complicated and is not just 'pick a number' from the air. I think many Brexiteers have no real understanding of Eu matters or of the EU at all.

    I think that the same applies to their understanding of Scotland or NI. If they did understand NI, they would have known that they did not need to do any deal with the DUP, as the DUP would always support their friend in the Conservative and Unionist Party, rather than risk a Corbyn led Government.


  • #189
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Nody wrote: »
    So why do you insist on EU not being allowed to do the same? For EU the best outcome is if the finance center in London gets dismantled and moved to EU countries, that as much industry jobs are moved over to EU and that future investments are done in EU rather than UK and to get the highest possible divorce bill settlement in their favour. But you call that EU seeking to punish UK when in reality it's exactly what UK is doing except on EU side instead.

    Good evening!

    I don't see how you think the UK wants to punish Europe.

    The British government is clear that it wants a progressive trade deal that benefits both sides.

    Sorry but there's nothing punitive about this. Talk of London no longer being a major financial centre after Brexit is utterly fanciful. In fact the EU27 will need good access to the City post-Brexit.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #190
    DaniilKharms
    Closed Accounts Posts: 226 ✭✭DaniilKharms


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    I don't see how you think the UK wants to punish Europe.

    The British government is clear that it wants a progressive trade deal that benefits both sides.

    Sorry but there's nothing punitive about this. Talk of London no longer being a major financial centre after Brexit is utterly fanciful. In fact the EU27 will need good access to the City post-Brexit.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    The UK has made it clear that its priority is not:

    - workers
    - business
    - healthcare
    - security
    - trade

    but is instead control of it's borders, and freedom from EU control.

    Claiming that it cares about a progressive anything is a nonsense.


  • #191
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    I think the biggest question to be asked, is who will make up the shortfall after the UK leaves and how much extra each country will have to pay.
    Germany had a budget surplus of €24Bn

    I'm not suggesting that the they will spend it on the EU, but it's a option.

    Also the UK will have to buy out the EU and Euroatom assets on it's soil. And then there's the stuff the divorce bill.

    So the EU budget isn't an intractable problem anytime soon.

    It's not even a political issue. We are the UK's closest partner in the EU and 90% of us favour free movement of other EU nationals.


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  • #192
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    It is not 14 billion. It is 8 billion net. 8 billion per annum divided pro rata amongst the 27 is a thing of nothing.

    Edit: Wot e said ^ previous post.

    OK, according to full facts it is £9bn, so around €11bn, so that is what the UK is committed to pay per year, up until the end of 2020, is it not?

    It isn't divided by 27 either, because a lot are net benefactors not contributors.

    To put it another way, five countries contribute around half the eu's budget


  • #193
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    DaniilKharms wrote: »
    The UK has made it clear that its priority is not:

    - workers
    - business
    - healthcare
    - security
    - trade

    but is instead control of it's borders, and freedom from EU control.

    Claiming that it cares about a progressive anything is a nonsense.

    Good evening!

    I don't know how you see that at all.

    The UK has stated repeatedly that it wants a good trade deal with the EU. The UK is committed to the rights of citizens living here. The UK is clear that it wants to continue working towards security in Europe through NATO and it's deployments in Estonia.

    The reality is that none of those points are actually true at all.

    I don't know why hard remainers are so committed to this fictional narrative that they've constructed.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #194
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    It doesn't change my view. The UK is seeking a deal which suits Britain's particular circumstances.

    A deal which requires continued observance to EU laws and freedom of movement doesn't suit the circumstances of the UK or the Brexit vote. A half in half out approach isn't the right option.
    The UK is unique and special , just like everyone else is.

    Every country in the EU and EFTA and EU Customs Union has it's own particular circumstances.

    All would like the EU regulations tweaked in their favour. But most have accepted that they can't get everything they want. Politics is after all the art of the possible.


    The issue since before the referendum is that the EU has been very clear about the freedoms being a package deal. And for political reasons the UK cannot possibly get a better deal than any country remaining in the EU. So I wouldn't worry too much about "half in half out"


  • #195
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    The UK is unique and special , just like everyone else is.

    Every country in the EU and EFTA and EU Customs Union has it's own particular circumstances.

    All would like the EU regulations tweaked in their favour. But most have accepted that they can't get everything they want. Politics is after all the art of the possible.


    The issue since before the referendum is that the EU has been very clear about the freedoms being a package deal. And for political reasons the UK cannot possibly get a better deal than any country remaining in the EU. So I wouldn't worry too much about "half in half out"

    Good evening!

    You're missing the key point.

    The UK doesn't want to be in the customs union or to have single market membership. Talking about something which isn't desired is pointless.

    The UK is seeking a third country deal. Single market membership and membership of the customs union is off the table. This is the reason why I'm referring to CETA.

    Half in, half out doesn't cut it.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #196
    DaniilKharms
    Closed Accounts Posts: 226 ✭✭DaniilKharms


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    I don't know how you see that at all.

    The UK has stated repeatedly that it wants a good trade deal with the EU. The UK is committed to the rights of citizens living here. The UK is clear that it wants to continue working towards security in Europe through NATO and it's deployments in Estonia.

    The reality is that none of those points are actually true at all.

    I don't know why hard remainers are so committed to this fictional narrative that they've constructed.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria

    What it has ACTUALLY said repeatedly is that it can have it's cake and eat it too. Which is obviously delusional.

    MANY of its claims have been shown to be a joke as well, like that it can negotiate a trade deal before it settles it's outstanding debts, or that Brexit will magically create billions for the NHS.

    The UK has REPEATEDLY threatened that it's security arrangements might end if the EU doesn't give it what it wants.

    The UK has repeatedly said that controlling its borders is more important than trade.

    Etc., etc.

    If you ACTUALLY believe this wide eyed stuff you're posting you're going to be in for quite a shock.


  • #197
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,060 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    You're missing the key point.

    The UK doesn't want to be in the customs union or to have single market membership. Talking about something which isn't desired is pointless.

    The UK is seeking a third country deal. Single market membership and membership of the customs union is off the table. This is the reason why I'm referring to CETA.

    Half in, half out doesn't cut it.


    Such a deal will take years to negotiate, just like all other deals before. You cannot just cut and paste someone else's deal and put your name into it, it will take negotiation on what you can provide to the EU and what the EU wants in return.

    If they want a deal that is easy to implement, then that is customs union and single market membership. Otherwise be prepared to wait years to negotiate the deal. In the meantime, the UK will negotiate with other countries on trade deals, but their relationship with the EU will factor into that as well.


  • #198
    whatstherush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭whatstherush


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    OK, according to full facts it is £9bn, so around €11bn, so that is what the UK is committed to pay per year, up until the end of 2020, is it not?

    It isn't divided by 27 either, because a lot are net benefactors not contributors.

    To put it another way, five countries contribute around half the eu's budget

    What are looking for Fred, it's budget hole that needs to be filled, are you saying it's insurmountable by the EU?

    Why does Davis describe brexit as being as literally hard as rocket science?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40420670

    Brexit equals a EU budget hole, UK equivalent task of sending man to the moon, I know which I would prefer.


  • #199
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    whatstherush wrote: »
    What are looking for Fred, it's budget hole that needs to be filled, are you saying it's insurmountable by the EU?

    Why does Davis describe brexit as being as literally hard as rocket science?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40420670

    Brexit equals a EU budget hole, UK equivalent task of sending man to the moon, I know which I would prefer.

    The original question was about this notional €100bn figure the UK will have to fork out to leave the eu, which according to some is what the UK has committed to pay.

    The UK is committed to pay up until the end of the current budget, is it not?

    But I also asked, who will be making up the short fall.


  • #200
    whatstherush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭whatstherush


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    The original question was about this notional €100bn figure the UK will have to fork out to leave the eu, which according to some is what the UK has committed to pay.

    The UK is committed to pay up until the end of the current budget, is it not?

    But I also asked, who will be making up the short fall.
    The shortfall will be made up like any budget hole, increases in contributions and cuts to existing expenditure. Do you want to speculate on the details of that? If so why? How would we have any idea?


  • #201
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    Germany had a budget surplus of €24Bn

    I'm not suggesting that the they will spend it on the EU, but it's a option.

    Also the UK will have to buy out the EU and Euroatom assets on it's soil. And then there's the stuff the divorce bill.

    So the EU budget isn't an intractable problem anytime soon.

    It's not even a political issue. We are the UK's closest partner in the EU and 90% of us favour free movement of other EU nationals.

    Aah, the god old Germans. I'm sure a few gentle reminders if their past will help them loosen the purse strings, once again.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40622845


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  • #202
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,052 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    solodeogloria wrote: »
    Good evening!

    You're missing the key point.

    The UK doesn't want to be in the customs union or to have single market membership. Talking about something which isn't desired is pointless.

    The UK is seeking a third country deal. Single market membership and membership of the customs union is off the table. This is the reason why I'm referring to CETA.

    Half in, half out doesn't cut it.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria
    CETA is just a FTA and does not cover the UK's biggest export... services. They obviously want more than a FTA such as CETA. Correct?


  • #203
    whatstherush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭whatstherush


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Aah, the god old Germans. I'm sure a few gentle reminders if their past will help them loosen the purse strings, once again.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40622845

    Aah, the intellectual equivalent of 2 world wars, one world cup, post. Keep them coming Frederick!


  • #204
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Aah, the god old Germans. I'm sure a few gentle reminders if their past will help them loosen the purse strings, once again.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40622845

    Fred that is schoolyard stuff / deflection 101. It is clear you are not willing, or unable to address his point, so why even respond?

    Nate


  • #205
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    whatstherush wrote: »
    Aah, the intellectual equivalent of 2 world wars, one world cup, post. Keep them coming Frederick!

    In what way?

    I had a long conversation with German colleagues about Brexit and their general view was that they aren't allowed to complain about the eu because of their past and the UK is a very strong ally in keeping French demands on them in check. They see Brexit moving the seat of power in Europe one step closer to Paris.

    Ask yourself, what was Greece's first response when Merkal wanted tighter fiscal controls in return for releasing funds to bail out their failed economy?


  • #206
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 11,040 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    I had a long conversation with German colleagues about Brexit and their general view was that they aren't allowed to complain about the eu because of their past and the UK is a very strong ally in keeping French demands on them in check. They see Brexit moving the seat of power in Europe one step closer to Paris.

    And by way of contrast, most of my German/French/Italian friends are of the opinion that the UK has been on the fringe of the EU for too long without really being committed and the exit is best.

    It really depends on who you ask.


  • #207
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    murphaph wrote: »
    CETA is just a FTA and does not cover the UK's biggest export... services. They obviously want more than a FTA such as CETA. Correct?

    By the way, Irish exports of services to the UK total around €18bn, as opposed to €11bn in imports, so a services trade agreement is very much in Ireland's best interests.


  • #208
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    And by way of contrast, most of my German/French/Italian friends are of the opinion that the UK has been on the fringe of the EU for too long without really being committed and the exit is best.

    It really depends on who you ask.

    It does.

    That doesn't really counter what I said though.


  • #209
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 11,040 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    The original question was about this notional €100bn figure the UK will have to fork out to leave the eu, which according to some is what the UK has committed to pay.

    The UK is committed to pay up until the end of the current budget, is it not?

    But I also asked, who will be making up the short fall.

    As usual you are totally wrong. But this is absolutely typical of your behaviour - a complete lack of knowledge on the topic and a refusal to even do some basic research.
    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Aah, the god old Germans. I'm sure a few gentle reminders if their past will help them loosen the purse strings, once again.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40622845

    And now this kind of nonsense. At this point you are embarrassing yourself and I for one have no intention of taking you seriously for here on out.


  • #210
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,346 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Labour in the UK want the customs union and access to the single market.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/16/labour-rebecca-long-bailey-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

    This is very diff to some of the views being put forward here. Lots of diff interpretations of the Brexit vote.

    If LB are of this view, then it seems to me the majority of the House of Commons, hold to those views too.

    The LB, SNP, PC, Green, even DUP along with some CON. I would think a majority. It would get through Parliament, its a reasonable negotiating position. The ball then is in the EU court.


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  • #211
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,052 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    By the way, Irish exports of services to the UK total around €18bn, as opposed to €11bn in imports, so a services trade agreement is very much in Ireland's best interests.
    That really depends Fred. A "normal" FTA would enable us to export agri food products to the UK tariff free. We might just want to take the hit on our services exports to the UK if we gain even a small share of London Euro business which would dwarf our existing services business into the UK.


This discussion has been closed.
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