Brexit discussion thread II

Fratton Fred

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Is anybody at all saying the opposite? What's wrong with admitting it?

Purifying water so that it can be drunk costs money.

How did the admission of that one go?

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Purifying water so that it can be drunk costs money.

How did the admission of that one go?

Do you think that the loss of 8 billion pa is a major body blow to the EU? Nobody else seems to think so.

murphaph

I agree wit ambro25. The reason the UK has found it hard to implement the same controls on EU benefits tourism that (say) Germany implements is because there is no compulsion to register where you live in the UK. For some bizarre reason the British and Irish believe it's a massive civil liberties issue. I haven't noticed my civil liberties here in Germany being infringed because the state knows where I live. Indeed, a national ID card linked to an address makes life very convenient. You will not be asked to provide utility bills here when opening a bank account or what have you. You just present your ID with your address on it and off you go.

The sheer convenience of a German ID card is why I'll take on German citizenship this year (I have done the citizenship test already, just need to schedule an appointment to set the rest of the process in motion).

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

The sheer convenience of a German ID card is why I'll take on German citizenship this year (I have done the citizenship test already, just need to schedule an appointment to set the rest of the process in motion).

A bit OT, but it might help a few others.

Will you retain your Irish citizenship when you become a German citizen?

LeinsterDub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmbF3e34VhM

I know this is just the opinion for some guy (who helped negotiate CETA).

He makes 4 points .


1. Put everything on the table . I think the EU and UK are guilty of not doing so currently . Both sides have too many red line issues

2. Get familiar. You'd think that the EU and UK who've been partners for 40 + years would already be familiar with each other . The UK seems to have no understand of the EU position and what the EU is willing to do to protect the EU and the 4 freedoms

3. Get buy in . We are constantly seeing British stakeholders having no idea what the plan is , why they are brexiting , how they'll brexit.

4. Expect the unexpected like the EU closing ranking and negotiating as whole

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do you think that the loss of 8 billion pa is a major body blow to the EU? Nobody else seems to think so.

It isn't a major body blow, but an absolute political dilemma.

Do you stop building motorways in Poland, or make every country pay 8% extra to make up the shortfall?

At a time when the Irish government are fighting for the world's largest company not to have to pay €13bn in tax, they put through a 2% increase in VAT?

People Before Profit (who campaigned in the north for the UK to leave the eu) would have an absolute field day. And let's face it, they were pretty effective with water charges.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It a major body blow, but an absolute political dilemma.

Do you stop building motorways in Poland, or make every country pay 8% extra to make up the shortfall?

At a time when the Irish government are fighting for the world's largest company not to have to pay €13bn in tax, they put through a 2% increase in VAT?

People Before Profit (who campaigned in the north for the UK to leave the eu) would have an absolute field day. And let's face it, they were pretty effective with water charges.

8%? Where do you get that figure from?
Anyway, the Irish government spent approximately €53 billion in 2016. Let's say that their share of the £8 billion (pro rata and rounded up) is €100 million. The loss represents 0.18% of expenditure.

An Ciarraioch

Sam Russell wrote: »

A bit OT, but it might help a few others.

Will you retain your Irish citizenship when you become a German citizen?

It seems that EU and Swiss citizens can claim dual citizenship, but everyone else has to renounce their previous nationality:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_nationality_law#Dual_citizenship

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

A bit OT, but it might help a few others.

Will you retain your Irish citizenship when you become a German citizen?

Oh yes, I wouldn't do it otherwise. Germany allows dual citizenship for EU citizens, but (generally, with few exceptions) not for anyone else. A benefit of being in the club I guess

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

8%? Where do you get that figure from?
Anyway, the Irish government spent approximately €53 billion in 2016. Let's say that their share of the £8 billion (pro rata and rounded up) is €100 million. The loss represents 0.18% of expenditure.

The UK pay around €11bn of the eu's €140bn budget, so about 8%. That's net, of course.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK pay around €11bn of the eu's €140bn budget, so about 8%. That's net, of course.

The whole EU budget is ~1% of Europe's gross income. Let's call the missing 8 billion around 0.1%.

Nody

The independent posted a interesting picture from today's meeting of the two team for the second round of discussions; notice a difference between EU (left) and the UK (right) team?

DaniilKharms

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmbF3e34VhM

I know this is just the opinion for some guy (who helped negotiate CETA).

He makes 4 points .


1. Put everything on the table . I think the EU and UK are guilty of not doing so currently . Both sides have too many red line issues

2. Get familiar. You'd think that the EU and UK who've been partners for 40 + years would already be familiar with each other . The UK seems to have no understand of the EU position and what the EU is willing to do to protect the EU and the 4 freedoms

3. Get buy in . We are constantly seeing British stakeholders having no idea what the plan is , why they are brexiting , how they'll brexit.

4. Expect the unexpected like the EU closing ranking and negotiating as whole

I have ZERO interest in the EU compromising very much with the UK, including on things like free movement of people or worker protection.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK pay around €11bn of the eu's €140bn budget, so about 8%. That's net, of course.

Well, it's accepted that the net figure is actually 8 billion.
Anyway, any thoughts on my point about the 0.18% of expenditure?

123shooter

The UK's net contribution is approx £9 billion, so when the UK goes the EU is going to be missing £9 billion or approx 10.25 billion euro after whatever money the EU can squeeze out of the UK on leaving.

10.25 billion between the remainder 27 countries is approx 380 million euro for each country per year. So Ireland could have to find this amount on top of what they already pay now.

380,000,000 divided by 4.5 million inhabitants of the Republic works out at approx 84 euro for every man woman child baby and transgender in the Republic per year.

So a household with 3 kids will have to find an extra approx 420 euro per year to pay into the EU to make up what the EU is losing eventually after the UK has gone.

This is on top of all the extra 'levies' (taxes) and everything else imposed on you since 2008.

If most of the Irish public objected to water charges wouldn't they object to paying something like these figures whatever they may be?

Now this is assuming that all countries can and are willing to pay and some simply can't like Greece for example and I should imagine an extra tax like this on the newer nations is going to really go down well. So in reality Irelands families could be paying a lot more.

Also in the other 10,000 or so posts you have already decided that the UK is going to disappear in to the abyss, so all of the trade and revenue Ireland earnt with the UK isn't going to happen any more........according to you yourselves on here.

All in all the future ain't great for the Republic of Ireland if it decides to stop a member of the EU?

DaniilKharms

123shooter wrote: »

The UK's net contribution is approx £9 billion, so when the UK goes the EU is going to be missing £9 billion or approx 10.25 billion euro after whatever money the EU can squeeze out of the UK on leaving.

10.25 billion between the remainder 27 countries is approx 380 million euro for each country per year. So Ireland could have to find this amount on top of what they already pay now.

380,000,000 divided by 4.5 million inhabitants of the Republic works out at approx 84 euro for every man woman child baby and transgender in the Republic per year.

So a household with 3 kids will have to find an extra approx 420 euro per year to pay into the EU to make up what the EU is losing eventually after the UK has gone.

This is on top of all the extra 'levies' (taxes) and everything else imposed on you since 2008.

If most of the Irish public objected to water charges wouldn't they object to paying something like these figures whatever they may be?

Now this is assuming that all countries can and are willing to pay and some simply can't like Greece for example and I should imagine an extra tax like this on the newer nations is going to really go down well. So in reality Irelands families could be paying a lot more.

Also in the other 10,000 or so posts you have already decided that the UK is going to disappear in to the abyss, so all of the trade and revenue Ireland earnt with the UK isn't going to happen any more........according to you yourselves on here.

All in all the future ain't great for the Republic of Ireland if it decides to stop a member of the EU?

There's zero doubt that the UK has screwed every country in the EU, especially Ireland.

There's also no doubt that the EU is a better option than going on our own, and that the EU will have a much rosier future than the UK.

LeinsterDub

123shooter wrote: »

If most of the Irish public objected to water charges wouldn't they object to paying something like these figures whatever they may be?

Most of the Irish public didn't object to water charges but that's for sure an other thread

123shooter

DaniilKharms wrote: »

There's zero doubt that the UK has screwed every country in the EU, especially Ireland.

There's also no doubt that the EU is a better option than going on our own, and that the EU will have a much rosier future than the UK.

Ok I am not going to even argue who is right or wrong and actually you cant see into the future either.

But back on the point. Are you going to accept and fork out that extra cash?...........I don't think the Irish public will even entertain such.

Could possibly explain why some political people have already gone elsewhere before it all kicks off?

123shooter

123shooter wrote: »

The UK's net contribution is approx £9 billion, so when the UK goes the EU is going to be missing £9 billion or approx 10.25 billion euro after whatever money the EU can squeeze out of the UK on leaving.

10.25 billion between the remainder 27 countries is approx 380 million euro for each country per year. So Ireland could have to find this amount on top of what they already pay now.

380,000,000 divided by 4.5 million inhabitants of the Republic works out at approx 84 euro for every man woman child baby and transgender in the Republic per year.

So a household with 3 kids will have to find an extra approx 420 euro per year to pay into the EU to make up what the EU is losing eventually after the UK has gone.

This is on top of all the extra 'levies' (taxes) and everything else imposed on you since 2008.

If most of the Irish public objected to water charges wouldn't they object to paying something like these figures whatever they may be?

Now this is assuming that all countries can and are willing to pay and some simply can't like Greece for example and I should imagine an extra tax like this on the newer nations is going to really go down well. So in reality Irelands families could be paying a lot more.

Also in the other 10,000 or so posts you have already decided that the UK is going to disappear in to the abyss, so all of the trade and revenue Ireland earnt with the UK isn't going to happen any more........according to you yourselves on here.

All in all the future ain't great for the Republic of Ireland if it decides to stop a member of the EU?

Why would Ireland be liable for 1/27th of the bill? Your suggestion would have Germany and France also paying the same amount. Is that reasonable?

I think your maths needs work.

murphaph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why would Ireland be liable for 1/27th of the bill? Your suggestion would have Germany and France also paying the same amount. Is that reasonable?

I think your maths needs work.

Yip. The bigger countries will pick up more of the slack obviously. There might be some scaling back of capital projects too, but all in all I would much prefer to have the budget hole to plug problem than all the problems the UK is staring down the barrel at.

123shooter

Deleted User wrote: »

Why would Ireland be liable for 1/27th of the bill? Your suggestion would have Germany and France also paying the same amount. Is that reasonable?

I think your maths needs work.

Possibly but being as you want to be an equal member why shouldnt you be an equal payer?

123shooter

murphaph wrote: »

Yip. The bigger countries will pick up more of the slack obviously. There might be some scaling back of capital projects too, but all in all I would much prefer to have the budget hole to plug problem than all the problems the UK is staring down the barrel at.

possibly but dont you think those in other countries are going to say why should we pay more when Irish people dont yet again?

I don't think your theory will go down too well.

DaniilKharms

123shooter wrote: »

possibly but dont you think those in other countries are going to say why should we pay more when Irish people dont yet again?

I don't think your theory will go down too well.

well... shouldn't it be:

- prorated by population
- prorated by size of the economy
- prorated by impact of Brexit?

Sam Russell

I would assume that the UK budget contribution will continue for at least five years, but not ten. In addition, there will be a continued contribution to the EU pension pot that might continue for at least twenty years. Now assume that there is economic growth within the EU of between two and three percent plus inflation of between one and two percent.

With these figures, the EU will weather the UK departure with little economic loss, but of course, the loss of the UK economic contribution which may be large or small depending on the terms of the divorce settlement. The loss of sales into the UK and the transfer of UK business into EU27 cannot be estimated.

Early days yet.

123shooter

123shooter wrote: »

Possibly but being as you want to be an equal member why shouldnt you be an equal payer?

In this new age of equality, are the several hundred thousand Northern Irish supposed to contribute the same towards the UK's Budget as the millions of English?

Can we drop the nonsense perhaps?

123shooter

DaniilKharms wrote: »

well... shouldn't it be:

- prorated by population
- prorated by size of the economy
- prorated by impact of Brexit?

Well for 40 years you have been having billions of other tax payers money.

It wasn't a gift you know. And now you want special privilege again!!! and not pay back what they have give you over 40 years but you still want to be an equal member.

Now they need your help you suddenly hand in a sicky.

Something amiss with the thinking there I think dont you?

123shooter

Deleted User wrote: »

In this new age of equality, are the several hundred thousand Northern Irish supposed to contribute the same towards the UK's Budget as the millions of English?

Can we drop the nonsense perhaps?

They arent in the EU and we are talking about Brexit and its effects on the EU and Ireland.

murphaph

123shooter wrote: »

possibly but dont you think those in other countries are going to say why should we pay more when Irish people dont yet again?

I don't think your theory will go down too well.

What does it matter to the UK how we sort this out when you've left anyway?

123shooter

murphaph wrote: »

What does it matter to the UK how we sort this out when you've left anyway?

Correct but it matters to the people of Ireland with yet another bill to pay.

murphaph

123shooter wrote: »

Correct but it matters to the people of Ireland with yet another bill to pay.

We'll manage.

123shooter

123shooter wrote: »

They arent in the EU and we are talking about Brexit and its effects on the EU and Ireland.

The funding gap left when the UK leaves the EU will not be borne equally amongst the nations within the EU, but borne closer to equally amongst the people within the EU.

Just as the UK budgetary process works. And of course you understand this, but it utterly invalidates your original argument and so you persist with the nonsense...

123shooter

Deleted User wrote: »

The funding gap left when the UK leaves the EU will not be borne equally amongst the nations within the EU, but borne closer to equally amongst the people within the EU.

Just as the UK budgetary process works.

I am sure the other peoples of the EU will be sick of paying yet more money and let countries who have had billions of their hard earned money just waltz away with only pennies to pay.

But its great to be optimistic.

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, it's accepted that the net figure is actually 8 billion.
Anyway, any thoughts on my point about the 0.18% of expenditure?

8 billion what?

123shooter

Fratton Fred wrote: »

8 billion what?

Its approx £8.6 billion. I rounded it off to £9 billion and converted it to euros at 10.25 billion between 27 member states.

Calina

123shooter wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

What does it matter to the UK how we sort this out when you've left anyway?

Correct but it matters to the people of Ireland with yet another bill to pay.

There is going to be a special quango set up to collect a household contribution to plug the Brexit gap, is there?

Really?

I paid my water bills btw. I didn't resent it either. I resented the bill I paid called rent though. That stuck in my craw.

I think you are ill positioned to see what is likely to be budgetary policy in the EU post Brexit. But it is highly unlikely to be in the zone of the figures you are suggesting and it will still be minimal compared to the benefit the country has already obtained from membership.

But again, it really is none of the UK's businesd after Brexit how the remaining members arrange themselved. They will have left. Apparently.

Fratton Fred

123shooter wrote: »

Its approx £8.6 billion. I rounded it off to £9 billion and converted it to euros at 10.25 billion between 27 member states.

Yes, that's why I mentioned around €11bn.

I think some people are getting confused between euros and sterling.

Edit: thinking about it though, the net figure is not the correct one to use, as it doesn't take in to account eu institutions and research carried out in the UK (know what I'm talking about Eddy?).

The cost of these count towards eu expenditure in the UK, but these institutions will continue elsewhere, so will need to be paid for.

Enzokk

ambro25 wrote: »

After last weekend's love-in with Trump, I'm thinking that Macron's France is looking to replace the UK as the special relationship counterpart, and erstwhile FDI landing zone, within the EU. Macron strikes me as plenty opportunistic and mercenary that way.

Just remember that President Trump is a People Pleaser, he will say what he thinks his host wants to hear. That's why his statements are so wild, he pulls out of the Paris agreement, but after a visit to France he says it may change. I think Macron is trying to assert his popularity at home by showing he can be the alpha male against the most alpha male of all time with Trump. If in turn he does get the US to make a u-turn on Paris, all the better for all of us.

On the discussion of budgets, will the EU budget not decrease with the UK leaving the union? Will this amount be of any significance? Are we talking tens of millions in a billion euro budget?

Fratton Fred

Enzokk wrote: »

Just remember that President Trump is a People Pleaser, he will say what he thinks his host wants to hear. That's why his statements are so wild, he pulls out of the Paris agreement, but after a visit to France he says it may change. I think Macron is trying to assert his popularity at home by showing he can be the alpha male against the most alpha male of all time with Trump. If in turn he does get the US to make a u-turn on Paris, all the better for all of us.

Trumps hobby horse at the moment seems to be NATO and countries not meeting their budgetary obligations, so the love in may be short lived if France doesn't up it's military spending.

Enzokk wrote: »

On the discussion of budgets, will the EU budget not decrease with the UK leaving the union? Will this amount be of any significance? Are we talking tens of millions in a billion euro budget?

It will decrease, but the UK is one of the largest net contributors, so there will be a net loss to the eu of between €10 and €14 billion per year, of an annual budget of €140 billion.

An Ciarraioch

And for some balance, individual EU nations shooting themselves in the foot - couldn't imagine Ireland blocking dual nationality!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/17/dutch-nationals-brexit-uk-citizenship-lose-netherlands-passports-mark-rutte

DaniilKharms

123shooter wrote: »

Well for 40 years you have been having billions of other tax payers money.

It wasn't a gift you know. And now you want special privilege again!!! and not pay back what they have give you over 40 years but you still want to be an equal member.

Now they need your help you suddenly hand in a sicky.

Something amiss with the thinking there I think dont you?

I'm not sure you understand how the EU works.

This is not like infrastructure spending. No one is getting anything from Brexit. Except some racists and xenophobes.

DaniilKharms

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Trumps hobby horse at the moment seems to be NATO and countries not meeting their budgetary obligations, so the love in may be short lived if France doesn't up it's military spending.



It will decrease, but the UK is one of the largest net contributors, so there will be a net loss to the eu of between €10 and €14 billion per year, of an annual budget of €140 billion.

France is not not meeting any obligations. Trump misunderstands how NATO is funded and what sort of agreements are in place.

DaniilKharms

123shooter wrote: »

Ok I am not going to even argue who is right or wrong and actually you cant see into the future either.

But back on the point. Are you going to accept and fork out that extra cash?...........I don't think the Irish public will even entertain such.

Could possibly explain why some political people have already gone elsewhere before it all kicks off?

You don't have to be a psychic to be know the UK has ****ed itself with Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

8 billion what?

So my point about the 0.18 expenditure that you keep ignoring. Not much of a body blow really, is it?

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

After last weekend's love-in with Trump, I'm thinking that Macron's France is looking to replace the UK as the special relationship counterpart, and erstwhile FDI landing zone, within the EU. Macron strikes me as plenty opportunistic and mercenary that way.

Just remember that President Trump is a People Pleaser, he will say what he thinks his host wants to hear. That's why his statements are so wild, he pulls out of the Paris agreement, but after a visit to France he says it may change. I think Macron is trying to assert his popularity at home by showing he can be the alpha male against the most alpha male of all time with Trump. If in turn he does get the US to make a u-turn on Paris, all the better for all of us.

According to the news at the time, Trump didn't say much of anything, Macron did all the talking.

I don't believe Macron is asserting his popularity at home: he doesn't need to, after burying left-right politics in France, and Marine LePen in passing, 2 months ago. And then cleaning up at the GE with a boatload of newbie deputes a month later or so.

I believe he's trying his hand at realpolitik early, intent on fully seizing the opportunities opened by Brexit. A viewpoint supported by his hard stance about the UK (reportedly the hardest amongst the EU27) and 'nabbing' a home visit from Trump under Teresa's nose.

Trump's an odious joke, for sure...but at the end of the day, he's still POTUS, for now at least. And he has yet to set foot in the 'special friend' UK. Actions, words and all that.

On the NATO issue, France has made all the right noises & budgetary commitments on the period 2019-2022 (for those who may have missed that in the news). I seem to recall the UK relying on French aircraft carriers a good while recently, while theirs were being built - and France has few if any lessons to take from the UK on the NATO/capacity/force projection/intel fronts, tbh. The Germans aren't that far behind, neither are the Poles.

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So my point about the 0.18 expenditure that you keep ignoring. Not much of a body blow really, is it?

You pulled a number out if thin air, how can that be commented on?

The eu budget is hugely complex and isn't based on spreading the cost evenly based on population, it is based on a country's wealth and one of the wealthy countries is about leave, meaning there are now a higher proportion of less wealthy countries. Those countries don't contribute much, but receive a lot.

Denmark has already stated they aren't paying any extra and you can bet the visegard group won't either, so the budget hole won't simply be divided evenly per capita, some countries will pay a lot extra, or the budgets get cut.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You pulled a number out if thin air, how can that be commented on?

The eu budget is hugely complex and isn't based on spreading the cost evenly based on population, it is based on a country's wealth and one of the wealthy countries is about leave, meaning there are now a higher proportion of less wealthy countries. Those countries don't contribute much, but receive a lot.

Denmark has already stated they aren't paying any extra and you can bet the visegard group won't either, so the budget hole won't simply be divided evenly per capita, some countries will pay a lot extra, or the budgets get cut.

Nah. Britain flouncing with their 8 billion isn't the body blow you wish it was.

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

I seem to recall the UK relying on French aircraft carriers a good while recently, while theirs were being built - and France has few if any lessons to take from the UK on the NATO/capacity/force projection/intel fronts, tbh. The Germans aren't that far behind, neither are the Poles.

Err carrier, singular, not plural.

It's currently in dry dock in Toulon on an 18 month refit.

Fratton Fred

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nah. Britain flouncing with their 8 billion isn't the body blow you wish it was.

Good answer, bravo.

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Good answer, bravo.

Thanks.

ancapailldorcha

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Good answer, bravo.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thanks.

Both of you are well aware that this sort of sniping isn't on. Cut it out.