Official Conor McGregor thread (part 3) *Updated Warning in 1st Post Re:Boxing match

Depp wrote: »

Schaub firmly on team conor anyway...no way he pulls it off? seriously?

Brendan has his moments of talking crap but he's been pretty consistently supporting Conor for the last 3 years. One of my favourite clips is the Joe Rogan Fight Companion for UFC 189 with Brendan and Bryan Callen going nuts when Conor stopped Chad!

I also agree with him on this bet. Max Kellerman is the smug personification of every boxing fan out there. Teddy Atlas already crawled out of the woodwork calling MMA fighters "cave-men compared to boxers", which is funny because he seems to genuinely believe boxers would win in a street fight.

Anyway, I agree with Brendan and already put my neck on the line for ridicule on the boxing forum saying this but I believe the scorecards will read 19-19 going into the 3rd round, with Conor obviously winning one of the first two rounds.

People are saying Conor's unusual footwork, stance, range, movement will be completely useless in boxing but I disagree and believe it will take Floyd the bones of 2 rounds to get his timing down on Conor's entries and set-ups.

EagererBeaver wrote: »

You said yourself you were looking forward to the buildup. This is the kind of ****e that'll be forthcoming for two months.

Dillon grapples often at 82kg (180lb) and claims to walk around at 190-195lb in some interviews. Amir has fought at 135lb's or lower 21 times as a pro!

If Dillon wants to go wild and get some media attention by calling out Andre Ward, knock himself out with it but he just looks foolish calling out someone 4 inches smaller and (at least) 3 stone lighter than him.

Mellor wrote: »

Any bookies giving odds on Conor to win/not win any round?

Try William Hill...Boxing..Future#YourOdds..

Since 2005, the UFC had only once failed to have a 500,000+ buys PPV in the first half of a year and that was 2014. That was partly because Renan Barao headlined 2 of those PPV's and Mighty Mouse another one.

Even allowing for how bad the first half of 2014 was, they sold 1,550,000 in the first 6 months.

2017 is the worst first half of the year for the UFC PPV wise since 2005 and partly explains Conor v Floyd.

Mellor wrote: »

There's also some chicken and egg going on.
Poor numbers contribute to CvF.
But CvF contributes to poor numbers, due to no McGregor fight during the Jan-Jun.

Take UFC196 out of 2016 an your left with due 1.15m buys between the rest. Only 4 events, but similar ballpark.

Yep.

I've no idea on where to even start speculating on how much the UFC is going to make on this fight. I'll give it a try though, let me know if you think I'm going wrong anywhere Mellor!

I think the fight will sell 5.8 million PPV's @ $109.99 (HD) or $99.99 (standard) in North America. I really think it will obliterate all previous records and they'll go greedy with the pricing. That bit is just based on the insane amount of social media impressions the fight announcement generated (was really off the charts).

Now, this is just complete guess work but I think it's reasonable to guess the overall split between camps was 60% Floyd and 40% Conor. Floyd v Berto did very poorly on PPV and Conor was able to bring 4 consecutive 1m+ buys to the table, couple to that he's not a boxer so I think they probably went 60-40 to get a deal done.

Breaking down Conor's end of it and knowing everything we know about the UFC, you'd have to imagine their side of the fight split was also 60-40 (60% Conor, 40% UFC).

Anyway that might be way off but if that's the case we're looking at the UFC clearing 16% of the overall take, Conor clearing 24%.

I think the fight will do over 1.5m buys in the UK and will probably break Danny Green v Anthony Mundine's PPV record in Australia.

I was going through a few analytics on google and the countries Conor is most searched in are 1. Ireland 2. UK 3. Australia 4. Russia 5. America. 6. Canada 7. Germany.

I think they can break records in all of those markets.

I've been reading up about Showtimes PPV deal and unlike UFC PPV's there's not much in costs. I.e. The UFC only make $34 out of the $60 for a PPV, whereas very little went off the top of the $100 May-Pac PPV.

TL;DR:

Best Case (5.8m buys):

Floyd - $230 million net
Showtime - $90 million
Conor -$120 million
UFC - $80 million

If I'm mis-reading demand and the fight only does 3m buys then just divide those numbers in half and I'll come back and eat crow but I really think we're looking at staggering numbers for this event. Social media impressions from last nights announcement were on an unprecedented scale for a sporting event.

Conor's fight announcement tweet is now the 3rd most RT'd sports tweet of all-time and the most liked sports tweet of all time. All inside 2 days.. It has an outside chance of getting to the number 1 spot on RT's, currently Leicester City's "Champions" tweet which is at 389,000 RT's. (Conor up to 246,000 RT's, 450,000 Likes).

I think it's going to do unheard of numbers.

You are a legend Wonder.. Love the effort you put in to your posts.